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Search results for: PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF ASSESSMENT PROCESS
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Risk Analysis by a Probabilistic Model of the Measurement Process
PublicationThe aim of the article is presentation of the testing methodology and results of examination the probabilistic model of the measurement process. The case study concerns the determination of the risk of an incorrect decision in the assessment of the compliance of products by measurement. Measurand is characterized by the generalized Rayleigh distribution. The model of the meas-urement process was tested in parallel mode by six risk...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublicationA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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How to apply the probabilistic model of measurement processes successfully
PublicationApplicational aspects of probabilistic model of measurement processes, proposed by G.B. Rossi, are considered. The main idea of the model - using of Bayes-Laplace postulate for solution of inverse probability problem, is substituted by Fisher's concept of the likelihood function, expressed in the data translated format. This approach gives a clear-sighted solution of inverse probability. Some recommendations for application of...
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A probabilistic concept of load assessment of self-ignition engines
PublicationPrzedstawiono propozycję probabilistycznej interpretacji obciążenia silników spalinowych o zapłonie samoczynnym. Zaproponowano probabilistyczny opis obciążenia tych silników z uwzględnieniem znanych parametrów (wskaźników) ich pracy. Wykazano, że obciążenie tego rodzaju silników, rozpatrywane w dowolnej chwili, może być uważane za zmienną losową. Zwrócono uwagę, że obciążenie to może być uważane za zmienną losową wielowymiarową....
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Probabilistic Methods in Reliability Assessment of Engineering Lightweight Structures
PublicationThe paper considers the probability-based analysis of structural safety measures. Two different numerical examples of representative lightweight structures are considered – a submerged truss tower supporting an offshore platform, and an overhead power line support truss tower. On the basis of these examples, the importance of a motivated selection of analysis method and a proper choice of the number of important variables is shown....
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A probabilistic model of envirinmental safety of ship power plant.
PublicationPrzedstawiono probabilistyczne podejście do oceny bezpieczeństwa środowiskowego siłowni statku. Wyznaczono miarę ryzyka oraz kryterium ryzyka środowiskowego siłowni statku.
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Data-driven, probabilistic model for attainable speed for ships approaching Gdańsk harbour
PublicationThe growing demand for maritime transportation leads to increased traffic in ports. From this arises the need to observe the consequences of the specific speed ships reach when approaching seaports. However, usually the analyzed cases refer only to the statistical evaluation of the studied phenomenon or to the empirical modelling, ignoring the mutual influence of variables such as ship type, length or weather conditions. In this...
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Concept for interpretation and assessment of slide bearings operation in Diesel enfines in probabilistic approach
PublicationW artykule zaproponowano interpretację wartościującą działania, które (podobnie jak przedstawione w mechanice klasycznej działania Hamiltona i Maupertiusa oraz działanie wynikające ze zmiany pędu ciała) jest rozpatrywane jako wielkość fizyczna o jednostce miary zwanej''dżulosekundą''. Przedstawiono propozycję ilościowej interpretacji działania dowolnego poprzecznego łożyska ślizgowego, w którym zachodzą oddziaływania energetyczne...
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Probabilistic assessment of SMRFs with infill masonry walls incorporating nonlinear soil-structure interaction
PublicationInfill Masonry Walls (IMWs) are used in the perimeter of a building to separate the inner and outer space. IMWs may affect the lateral behavior of buildings, while they are different from those partition walls that separate two inner spaces. This study focused on the seismic vulnerability assessment of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames (SMRFs) assuming different placement of IMWs incorporating nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI)....
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Towards a probabilistic model for predicting ship besetting in ice in Arctic waters
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Towards an evidence-based probabilistic risk model for ship-grounding accidents
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A probabilistic model of ship performance in ice based on full-scale data
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Seismic probabilistic assessment of steel and reinforced concrete structures including earthquake-induced pounding
PublicationRecent earthquakes demonstrate that prioritizing the retrofitting of buildings should be of the utmost importance for enhancing the seismic resilience and structural integrity of urban structures. To have a realistic results of the pounding effects in modeling process of retrofitting buildings, the present research provides seismic Probability Factors (PFs), which can be used for estimating collision effects without engaging in...
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Probabilistic seismic assessment of RC box-girder highway bridges with unequal-height piers subjected to earthquake-induced pounding
PublicationThis paper uses the probabilistic seismic assessment to study the effects of pounding and irregularity on the seismic behavior of typical concrete box-girder bridges with four levels of altitudinal irregularity. To extend the results for all bridges in the same class, uncertainty related to the earthquake, structural geometries, and materials are considered. Pounding is likely to take place in two cases: the first one concerns...
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Towards More Realistic Probabilistic Models for Data Structures: The External Path Length in Tries under the Markov Model
PublicationTries are among the most versatile and widely used data structures on words. They are pertinent to the (internal) structure of (stored) words and several splitting procedures used in diverse contexts ranging from document taxonomy to IP addresses lookup, from data compression (i.e., Lempel- Ziv'77 scheme) to dynamic hashing, from partial-match queries to speech recognition, from leader election algorithms to distributed hashing...
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A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs – A case study for the Gulf of Finland
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A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship–ship collision
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Reliability data safety instrumented systems SIS from the functional safety analysis example critical instalation
Open Research DataThe dataset represents the results of an example of functional safety analysis systems is presented below. It is based on a control system, which consists of some basic components like sensors, programmable logic controllers and valves. It is a part of petrochemical critical installations. The communication between sensor logic controllers and actuators...
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Probabilistic Assessment of Correlations of Water Levels in Polish Coastal Lakes with Sea Water Level with the Application of Archimedean Copulas
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A probabilistic concept of assessment of amount of noxious substances contained in exhaust gas emitted from self-ignition engines
PublicationPrzedstawiono probabilistyczną koncepcję oceny toksyczności spalin silników o zapłonie samoczynnym. Ocena taka jest istotna, ponieważ bez niej nie jest możliwe określenie walorów proekologicznych różnych środków transportowych z napędem spalinowym, w tym śródlądowych statków pasażerskich. W koncepcji tej uwzględniony został model procesu rozruchu silników o zapłonie samoczynnym. Model ten przedstawiono w formie procesu semimarkowskiego,...
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Application of theory of semi-Markov processes to determining distribution of probabilistic process of marine accidents resulting from colission of ships
PublicationIn this paper is presented possible application of the theory of semi-Markov processes to elaborating an eight-state model of the process of occurrence of serviceability state and unserviceability states of sea-going ships making critical manoeuvres during their entering and leaving the ports. In the analysis it was taken into account that sea-going ships are in service for a very long time t (t → ∞). The model was elaborated to...
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Spatial distribution and correlations among elements in smaller than 75 μm street dust: ecological and probabilistic health risk assessment
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the safety instrumented systems with the uncertainty and security aspects
PublicationSafety and security aspects consist of two different group of functional requirements for the control and protection systems. In the paper it is proposed that the security analysis results can be used as a factor increasing or decreasing the risk level. It concerns a process of determining required safety integrity level of given safety functions. The authors propose a new approach for functional safety risk analysis. In this case...
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Current issues of functional safety and cybersecurity analysis of the industrial and critical infrastructures
PublicationThis article addresses some functional safety assessment procedures with cybersecurity aspects in critical industrial installations with regard to the functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The functional safety management includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on the risk assessment...
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Melody Harmonization with Interpolated Probabilistic Models
PublicationMost melody harmonization systems use the generative hidden Markov model (HMM), which model the relation between the hidden chords and the observed melody. Relations to other variables, such as the tonality or the metric structure, are handled by training multiple HMMs or are ignored. In this paper, we propose a discriminative means of combining multiple probabilistic models of various musical variables by means of model interpolation....
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Procedure based proactive functional safety management for the risk mitigation of hazardous events in the oil port installations including insurance aspects
PublicationThis article addresses selected technical and organization aspects of risk mitigation in the oil port installations with regard to functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The procedure for functional safety management includes the hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on risk assessment results...
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Safety integrity level verification for safety-related functions with security aspects
PublicationThe article is devoted some important issues of the functional safety analysis, in particular the safetyintegrity level (SIL) verification of safety functions to be implemented within the distributed controland protection systems with regard to cyber security aspects. The procedure for functional safety man-agement includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safetyrequirements and definition...
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Probabilistic analysis of settlements under a pile foundation of a road bridge pylon
PublicationThe paper addresses the reliability change of a road bridge pile foundation due to the unpredictable increase of settlements in time. The analysis is based on the Rędziński Bridge in Wrocław, Poland, its design assumptions, and monitoring results. The bridge foundation rests on a multi-layered subsoil assumed random. The Finite Element model of the subgrade is generated in ZSoil® software. To simplify the probabilistic approach,...
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A probabilistic description of footbridges vibration serviceability
PublicationRozważa się użytkowalność kładki dla pieszych ze względu na ich drgania. Imperfekcje ruchu pieszych są opisane zmianami kluczowych współczynników. Częstotliwość ruchu, długość kroku oraz amplituda siły modelującej pieszego są opisywane rozkładami prawdopodobieństwa. Stosuje się metodę Monte Carlo. Dane z symulacji probabilistycznych używa się do obliczeń numerycznych. Aby zredukować liczbę realizacji, przeprowadza się analizę zbieżności...
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A probabilistic description of footbridges vibration serviceability
PublicationRozważa się użytkowalność kładki dla pieszych ze względu na ich drgania. Imperfekcje ruchu pieszych są opisane zmianami współczynników tegoż ruchu. Bierze się pod uwagę rozkłady prawdopodobieństwa częstotliwości ruchu, długości kroku oraz amplitudy siły modelującej pieszego. Imperfekcje te znacznie wpływają na zachowanie konstrukcji. Stosuje się metodę Monte Carlo. Dane z symulacji probabilistycznych używa się do obliczeń numerycznych....
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Application of probabilistic tools to extend load test design of bridges prior to opening
PublicationLoad tests of bridges are widely performed in a large number of countries. Deterministic comparison of measurement results to the theoretical, FEM (finite element method)-based outcomes with possible further calibration is mostly applied. Sometimes, the data collected in the tests are also used to calibrate the reliability factors of bridge structures or their components. This work proposes to complement the stage of the load test...
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Implementation of Non-Probabilistic Methods for Stability Analysis of Nonlocal Beam with Structural Uncertainties
PublicationIn this study, a non-probabilistic approach based Navier’s Method (NM) and Galerkin Weighted Residual Method (GWRM) in term of double parametric form has been proposed to investigate the buckling behavior of Euler-Bernoulli nonlocal beam under the framework of the Eringen's nonlocal elasticity theory, considering the structural parameters as imprecise or uncertain. The uncertainties in Young’s modulus and diameter of the beam are...
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Simplified probabilistic analysis of settlement of cyclically loaded soil stratum using point estimate method
PublicationThe paper deals with the probabilistic analysis of settlement of a non-cohesive soil layer subjected to cyclic loading. Originally, the settlement assessment is based on deterministic compaction model which requires integration of a set of differential equations. However, making use of the Bessel functions the settlement of the soil stratum can be calculated by means of simplified algorithm. The compaction model parameters were...
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Probabilistic analysis of slope with planar slip surface
PublicationPraca dotyczy probabilistycznej oceny stateczności zboczy. Omówiono sposób określania prawdopodobieństwa utraty stateczności przy wykorzystaniu metody momentów (ang. FOSM). Podejście takie zastosowano do analizy zsuwu konsekwentnego jednorodnego zbocza. Rozpatrzono wpływ zmienności statystycznej parametrów wytrzymałościowych na końcowe wyniki.
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Showing compliance of probabilistic assessments with safety goals
PublicationW niektórych standardach formułuje się wymagania, że wyniki modelowania probabilistycznego i oszacowań ryzyka powinny zawierać ocenę niepewności. Modelowanie złożonych systemów bazuje w praktyce na kategoriach zdarzeń, które są mniej lub więcej rozmyte. Artykuł dotyczy kwestii wykazywania zgodności wyników modelowania probabilistycznego z ilościowymi kryteriami bezpieczeństwa. Proponuje się metodę definiowania takich kryteriów...
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Improving the procedure of probabilistic load testing design of typical bridges based on structural response similarities
PublicationThis paper concerns load testing of typical bridge structures performed prior to operation. In-situ tests of a two-span post-tensioned bridge loaded with three vehicles of 38-ton mass each formed the input of this study. On the basis of the results of these measurements, an advanced FEM model of the structure was developed for which the sensitivity analysis was performed for chosen uncertainty sources. Three uncorrelated random...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of limit states of structures : The Monte Carlo simulation
PublicationThe main issue of the paper is the probabilistic sensitivity of the limit states of structures with respect to selected input design variables. Attempt to the problem is done by the dedicated Monte Carlo simulation procedure. Basic design variables are random variables of given probability distributions, presented in the form of random numbers. Uni-parametrical increment of the dominant basic variable (basic variables) is done,...
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Simulation of the number of storm overflows considering changes in precipitation dynamics and the urbanisation of the catchment area: a probabilistic approach
PublicationThis paper presents a probabilistic methodology that allows the study of the interactions between changes in rainfall dynamics and impervious areas in urban catchment on a long- and short-term basis. The proposed probabilistic model predict future storm overflows while taking into account the dynamics of changes in impervious areas and rainfall. In this model, a logistic regression method was used to simulate overflow resulting...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of limit states of structures. The Monte Carlo simulation
PublicationDesign sensitivity deals with the variation of structural response, implicitly dependent on the design variables of the problem. An attempt is made to implement probabilistic notation in engineering sensitivity analysis. The procedure to implement the sensitivity of a structural limit state to a given basic variable is described in the paper - its main idea, depicted by a flowchart and numerical examples of engineering analysis....
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Probabilistic evaluation of test architectures for fully differential circuits
PublicationArtykuł prezentuje model probabilistyczny przeznaczony do oceny, porównania i optymalizacji architektur testujących układy w pełni różnicowe. Model ma postać funkcji rozkładów gęstości prawdopodobieństwa amplitudy i fazy sygnału mierzonego w trakcie testowania. Parametry modelu są wyznaczane za pomocą rozwinięcia funkcji układowej w szereg Taylora. Poprawność modelu sprawdzono poprzez porównanie z wynikami symulacji, uzyskanymi...
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Experimental measurements of friction forces on the tissue in probabilistic view
PublicationNiniejsza praca jest poświęcona wyznaczaniu wartości sił tarcia wywołanych podczas hydrodynamicznego przepływu lepkosprężystej cieczy odżywczej na powierzchniach hodowanych chondrocytów w bioreaktorze. Badania realizuje się w nano skali przy wykorzystaniu mikroskopu sił atomowych. Chondrocyty hodujemy w celu naprawy uszkodzonych chrząstek stawowych kolana człowieka.
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Deterministic and probabilistic interpretation of operation of technicalsystems with regard to their reliability
PublicationZaproponowano interpretację wartościującą działanie, które jest rozpatrywane jako wielkość fizyczna o jednostce miary zwanej dżulosekundą [dżulxsekunda]. Tak rozumiane działanie przedstawiono w ujęciu technicznym. Zaproponowano oryginalną metodę analizy i oceny działania dowolnego systemu technicznego z uwzględnieniem jego niezawodności. Szczególną uwagę zwrócono na interpretację działania silnika o zapłonie samoczynnym. Do uzasadnienia...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of the limit states of structures using Monte Carlom simulation
PublicationThe paper presents the concept of probabilistic sensitivity of structural limit states with respect to given design variables. A general idea is presented, illustrated by a simple case solved in an analytical way. More general approach is presented for the engineering structures, in this case a dedicated Monte Carlo simulation procedure is involved as part of the methodology. Illustration of the engineering case is done, by means...
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Probabilistic Analysis of Structure Models using Target Random Sampling (TRS)
PublicationThe work presents testing methods of sensitivity and reliability of mechanical or structural systems. All computations concerned the case of Zigler column, a simple model of a compressed column involving two random variables only. A conclusion was drawn that the standard Monte Carlo method, its reduction variants and the response surface method allow to assess the sensitivity of structural response to the variation of random structural...
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A CONCEPT OF DETERMINING THE RELATION BETWEEN LOAD AND WEAR OF TRIBOLOGICAL SYSTEMS OF SHIP MAIN SELF-IGNITION ENGINES BY USING PROBABILISTIC APPROACH PROBABILISTIC APPROACH
PublicationThis paper presents a proposal of simultaneous consideration of load and wear associated with it , of tribological systems of ship main engines (intended for ship propulsion) . Based on results of investigations it was assumed that both the load Q (i.e. a cause of wear ) and the wear Z (i.e. an effect of load occurrence) considered in a given time t(0 ≤ t ≤ t) are random variables Qt and Zt, respectively. There was characterized...
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A probabilistic-driven framework for enhanced corrosion estimation of ship structural components
PublicationThe work proposes a probabilistic-driven framework for enhanced corrosion estimation of ship structural components using Bayesian inference and limited measurement data. The new approach for modelling measurement uncertainty is proposed based on the results of previous corrosion tests that incorporate the non-uniform character of the corroded surface of structural components. The proposed framework's basic features are outlined,...
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Construction of index generation unit using probabilistic data structures
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Probabilistic prognosis of cliffslide along Baltic Sea coast in Poland.
PublicationAnaliza stateczności wybrzeży klifowych metodą probabilistyczną. Określnie stref zagrożonych utratą stateczności.
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Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice
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Probabilistic sensitivity of limit states of structures. The Monte Carlo simulation
PublicationPraca zawiera koncepcję badania wrażliwości stanów granicznych konstrukcji na zmiany poszczególnych zmiennych podstawowych, w oparciu o procedurę symulacyjną Monte Carlo. Sformułowanie ogólne metody oparte jest na analizie stanów granicznych konstrukcji, wprowadzona metoda losowa umożliwia badania histogramu stanu granicznego oraz estymację niezawodności / prawdopodobieństwa awarii konstrukcji.