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Search results for: BANKRUPTCY MODELS
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublicationThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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The risk of corporate bankruptcy - the conceptual model
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of different types of risks influencing the corporate bankruptcy risk. The author has developed conceptual model that explains the causes and the trajectories of the collapse of enterprises. In the analyses such factors as demographic, financial, market, political and operational factors influencing the risk of failure were taken into account.
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An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy
PublicationW artykule sprawdzono skuteczność pojedynczego modelu logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W badaniach wykorzystano wartości 14 wskaźników finansowych oraz ich dynamikę zmiany między pierwszym a drugim, drugim a trzecim oraz trzecim a czwartym rokiem objętymi analizą. We wnioskach omówiono różnicę w skutecznościach modelu uzyskanego na wartościach statycznych oraz dynamicznych wskaźników finansowych....
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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Bankruptcy system model and efficiency versus the entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries
Publicationmodel and its efficiency on the development of entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries and Turkey. This goal was achieved by examining the relationships between debtor-friendliness of the bankruptcy law model and its efficiency on one side and entrepreneurship and innovation on the other. The cross-sectional ANOVA test and OLS regression method were chosen as the research method. In order to verify the research...
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Bankruptcy Prediction - History, Present and Future.
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono krótką wzmiankę dotyczącą dotychczasowych badań w obszarze zagrożenia przedsiębiorstw upadłością, techniki wykorzystywane do budowy modeli prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw oraz metody stosowane w analizie porównawczej tego typu modeli.
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Predicting bankruptcy with the use of macroeconomic variables
PublicationRegarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the...
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Financial Markets and Bankruptcy Systems: Is there a Relationship?
PublicationPurpose: Filling the cognitive gap in the theory of ex-post transaction costs, i.e., at the stage of enforcing market transactions by examining the relationship between friendliness/severity of the bankruptcy and restructuring law towards debtors, the level of development of financial markets, the effectiveness of the judicial system and the rate of debt recovery. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research, the following methods...
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A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy prediction models based on financial ratios: Evidence from Colombia, 2008 to 2015
PublicationLogit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness...
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THE ANALYSIS OF THE BANKRUPTCY OF ENTERPRISES EXEMPLIFIED BY THE VISEGRAD GROUP
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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The impact of bankruptcy regimes on entrepreneurship and innovation. Is there any relationship?
PublicationThe literature review indicates that bankruptcy law may play an important role in and be one of the factors infuencing the development of entrepreneurship, innovation, and thus economic growth, among other things. In previous studies, the analysis of the impact of bankruptcy law on individual variables has been conducted independently. Our aim was to conduct a holistic analysis, taking several factors into account simultaneously....
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublicationIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublicationIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Multi-Criteria Early Warning System Against Enteprise Bankruptcy Risk
PublicationW artykule tym autor porównuje skuteczność opracowanego przez niego wielokryterialnego systemu wczesnego ostrzegania firm z tradycyjnym modelem analizy dyskryminacyjnej prognozowania upadłości. System wczesnego ostrzegania oparty został na metodzie logiki rozmytej. Badania te są jedną z pierwszych prób na świecie wykorzystania logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu zagrożenia bankructwem firm. Uzyskane wyniki świadczą o dużym potencjale...
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Bankruptcy Law Severity for Debtors: Comparative Analysis Among Selected Countries
PublicationPurpose: The objective of this paper is to propose the new indicator of bankruptcy law severity for debtors (BLSI-Bankruptcy Law Severity Index). On the basis of this index we conducted comparative analysis of debtor/creditor friendliness of bankruptcy laws among 27 selected countries. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research the following methods were used: analysis of legal acts, literature review and expert method. Findings:...
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries
PublicationIn developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject of researcher interest only in the 1990s. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze whether these countries conduct bankruptcy risk assessments and what their level of advancement is....
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Warning systems of enterprises against the risk of bankruptcy : Artificial intelligence in financial management.
PublicationJest to tłumaczenie na jęz.angielski monografii autora z 2010 roku. Monografia została podzielona na trzy części. I tak, w części pierwszej przedstawiono ocenę przyczyn upadłości firm ze względu nie tylko na źródło (zewnętrzne lub wewnętrzne) przyczyn kłopotów finansowych przedsiębiorstw, ale także na etap kryzysu, w jakim ono się znajduje, cechy "demograficzne" organizacji i rodzaj upadłości. Zdefiniowano również czynniki wpływające...
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Intraday price reaction to filing bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings – the evidence from Poland
PublicationThis chapter presents the results of research on the price reaction of shares listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange to filing bankruptcy and/or restructuring applications. Event study was adopted as the research method, and it was performed at 10, 5, and 1-minute intervals. It was found that the reaction is rapid, as it takes 1–2 minutes after the information on bankruptcy and restructuring applications was made public. Significantly...
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Short-Term Price Reaction to Filing for Bankruptcy and Restructuring Proceedings—The Case of Poland
PublicationThis study aims to check market reaction to filing for bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings and to verify the short-term effect of a price reversal in the Polish market in the years 2004–2019. The research was conducted by dividing the analysed companies according to the procedure (bankruptcy and restructuring) and market (the main market and the NewConnect market). The research methodology used in the study is the event analysis...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Sanctions and their role in preventing the appropriation of the creditor’s property rights in bankruptcy proceedings–the case of Poland
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to fill the cognitive gap regarding the role of sanc-tions in the protection of a creditor’s property rights in the event of an entrepreneur insolvency. The impact of sanctions on transaction costs, including their identifica-tion and types, as well as the impact on the protection of creditor rights, has been poorly recognized in the subject literature to date. This article investigates...
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The role of stakeholders on rejection of bankruptcy applications in the case of “poverty” of the estate: A Polish case study
PublicationThe aim of this article is to supplement the Law and Economics area of science with regard to the scope of the ex ante effectiveness of bankruptcy law using the example of Poland. Bankruptcy law is effective in the ex ante stage when it eliminates from the market insolvent entrepreneurs who cannot even afford to cover the costs of bankruptcy proceedings. In these cases, the bankruptcy court should dismiss the petition for bankruptcy...
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Uniform Model Interface for Assurance Case Integration with System Models
PublicationAssurance cases are developed and maintained in parallel with corresponding system models and therefore need to reference each other. Managing the correctness and consistency of interrelated safety argument and system models is essential for system dependability and is a nontrivial task. The model interface presented in this paper enables a uniform process of establishing and managing assurance case references to various types...
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Young’s modulus distribution in the FEM models of bone tissue
PublicationThis paper presents how differences of Young’s modulus in adjacent finite elements typical for organic materials such as bone tissue, influence stress calculating. Emphasizing high computational cost of variable Young’s modulus in parts of the model, where the number of finite elements has been raised, the authors wants to prove that new model of finite element which has variable Young’s modulus in its volume needs to be created....
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Derivation of Executable Test Models From Embedded System Models using Model Driven Architecture Artefacts - Automotive Domain
PublicationThe approach towards system engineering compliant to Model-Driven Architecture (MDA) implies an increased need for research on the automation of the model-based test generation. This applies especially to embedded real-time system development where safety critical requirements must be met by a system. The following paper presents a methodology to derive basic Simulink test models from Simulink system models so as to execute them...
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Does being socially good save firms from bankruptcy? A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis
PublicationThe purpose of the review was to find out, does being responsible saves firms from bank-ruptcy? What is the relationship between corporate social responsibility and default risk? What meth-ods and measures are used in the literature to evaluate this relationship? And what is the theoretical underpinning of the studies? Moreover, to explore what are the gaps for future work, Web of Science and Scopus databases were utilised to obtain...
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Sensitivity of binomial N‐mixture models to overdispersion: The importance of assessing model fit
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The role and concept of sub-models in the smart fuzzy model of the internet mortgage market
PublicationThe paper introduces some challenges of the fast growing mortgage market in Poland. One of these challenges is the need for a model development that could be used for various predictions related to this market. At the current stage of the model evelopment process our main goal is to propose and introduce sub-models the role of which would be to describe three different economic environments: stable, fast growing, and recession....
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Spurious Modes in Model Order Reduction in Variational Problems in Electromagnetics
PublicationIn this work, we address an everlasting issue in 2 model order reduction (MOR) in electromagnetics that has 3 remained unnoticed until now. Contrary to what has been 4 previously done, we identify for the very first time spurious 5 modes in MOR for time-harmonic Maxwell’s equations and 6 propose a methodology to remove their negative influence on the 7 reduced order model (ROM) response. These spurious modes 8 have nonzero resonance...
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Design and experimental evaluation of pod propulsor models for a large self-propelled ship model.
PublicationArtykuł przedstawia serię hydrodynamicznych badań swobodnych dwóch modeli pędnika podowego. Pędniki zostały zaprojektowane i zbudowane specjalnie dla dwóch wersji dużego modelu okrętu z własnym napędem, przeznaczonego do eksperymentów manewrowych. Jedna wersja jest napędzana pojedyńczym pędnikiem, druga jest wyposażona w dwa pędniki. Oba modele podów były badane w kanale obiegowym. Celem eksperymentu były pomiary sześciu składowych...
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Aktywne modele kształtu i ich biometryczne zastosowania = Active shape models and their biometric applications
PublicationAktywne modele kształtu zostały zaproponowane w latach 90 XX wieku jako uniwersalna metoda lokalizowania i rozpoznawania obiektów. Koncepcje teoretyczne, na których metoda ta została oparta, wydają się obiecujące, jednak ich praktyczna wartość nie została jeszcze do końca zweryfikowana. Autorzy niniejszej pracy przeprowadzili testy aktywnych modeli kształtu za pomocą własnego systemu lokalizacji obiektów, szczególną uwagę zwracając...
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Collective modes of the extended Hubbard model with negativeUand arbitrary electron density
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Consensus models: Computational complexity aspects in modern approaches to the list coloring problem
PublicationArtykuł poświęcony jest nowym modelom konsensusowego kolorowania grafów. Artykuł zawiera omówienie trzech takich modeli, analizę ich złożoności obliczeniowej oraz wielomianowy algorytm dla częściowych k-drzew, dla tzw. modelu addytywnego.
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A new anisotropic bending model for nonlinear shells: Comparison with existing models and isogeometric finite element implementation
PublicationA new nonlinear hyperelastic bending model for shells formulated directly in surface form is presented, and compared to four existing prominent bending models. Through an essential set of elementary nonlinear bending test cases, the membrane and bending stresses of each model are examined analytically. Only the proposed bending model passes all the test cases, while the other bending models either fail or only pass the test cases for...
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Integracja modeli ocenowych rozwoju organizacji IT w modelu pozyskiwania i przetwarzania wiedzy
PublicationCelem rozdziału jest prezentacja Modelu Pozyskiwania i Przetwarzania wiedzy (MPPW) wspomagającego rozwój organizacji IT oraz pokazanie możliwości wprowadzenia do opracowanego rozwiązania różnych modeli ocenowych.
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Hybrid of Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Models as a modern approach to speech recognition systems
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to present a hybrid algorithm that combines the advantages ofartificial neural networks and hidden Markov models in speech recognition for control purpos-es. The scope of the paper includes review of currently used solutions, description and analysis of implementation of selected artificial neural network (NN) structures and hidden Markov mod-els (HMM). The main part of the paper consists of a description...
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Recent advances in traffic optimisation: systematic literature review of modern models, methods and algorithms
PublicationOver the past few decades, the increasing number of vehicles and imperfect road traffic management have been sources of congestion in cities and reasons for deteriorating health of its inhabitants. With the help of computer simulations, transport engineers optimise and improve the capacity of city streets. However, with an enormous number of possible simulation types, it is difficult to grasp valuable, innovative solutions which...
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From Weak to Strong Coupling Superconductivity: Collective Modes in a Model with Local Attraction
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An optimal abstraction model for hardware multithreding in modern processor architectures.
PublicationPrzegląd technologii implementacji wątków sprzętowych. Propozycja abstrakcji maszyny wirtualnej SIMD (On-Demand Virtual Single Instruction Multiple Data machine) do optymalnego użycia wątków sprzętowych.
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Finite Element model updating on experimental modal parameters
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Differential models versus neural models in optimisation
PublicationW pracy porównano zastosowanie modeli różniczkowych i modeli neuronowych dla celów optymalizacji.
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Towards More Realistic Probabilistic Models for Data Structures: The External Path Length in Tries under the Markov Model
PublicationTries are among the most versatile and widely used data structures on words. They are pertinent to the (internal) structure of (stored) words and several splitting procedures used in diverse contexts ranging from document taxonomy to IP addresses lookup, from data compression (i.e., Lempel- Ziv'77 scheme) to dynamic hashing, from partial-match queries to speech recognition, from leader election algorithms to distributed hashing...
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Application of Illuminating Modes concept in modal expansion of elliptical resonator
PublicationIn the paper an IlluminatingModes (IM) approach as an extension of Spectral Domain Approach (SDA) is presented. IM concept is applied to the case of open microstrip planar elliptical resonator. A modal expansion of currents induced in the structures during illuminating them by a single plane wave is the novelty of the method. As an example of application of the method, we present the results obtained by an examination of two resonators...
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A compact smart sensor based on a neural classifier for objects modeled by Beaunier's model
PublicationA new solution of a smart microcontroller sensor based on a simple direct sensor-microcontroller interface for technical objects modeled by two-terminal networks and by the Beaunier’s model of anticorrosion coating is proposed. The tested object is stimulated by a square pulse and its time voltage response is sampled four times by the internal ADC of microcontroller. A neural classifier based on measurement data classifies the...
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries (prezentacja na konferencji TWENTY-SIXTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE MULTINATIONAL FINANCE SOCIETY)
PublicationUlotka konferencyjna: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modMainContent/uploadFiles/miscFiles/1562848077-MFC2019-Booklet-for-Distribution_2019-06-25.pdf