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Bankruptcy Prediction - History, Present and Future.
PublikacjaW artykule przedstawiono krótką wzmiankę dotyczącą dotychczasowych badań w obszarze zagrożenia przedsiębiorstw upadłością, techniki wykorzystywane do budowy modeli prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw oraz metody stosowane w analizie porównawczej tego typu modeli.
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublikacjaThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Predicting bankruptcy with the use of macroeconomic variables
PublikacjaRegarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublikacjaThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublikacjaIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublikacjaIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy
PublikacjaW artykule sprawdzono skuteczność pojedynczego modelu logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W badaniach wykorzystano wartości 14 wskaźników finansowych oraz ich dynamikę zmiany między pierwszym a drugim, drugim a trzecim oraz trzecim a czwartym rokiem objętymi analizą. We wnioskach omówiono różnicę w skutecznościach modelu uzyskanego na wartościach statycznych oraz dynamicznych wskaźników finansowych....
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries
PublikacjaIn developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject of researcher interest only in the 1990s. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze whether these countries conduct bankruptcy risk assessments and what their level of advancement is....
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JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
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A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy prediction models based on financial ratios: Evidence from Colombia, 2008 to 2015
PublikacjaLogit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness...
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AMERICAN BANKRUPTCY LAW JOURNAL
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The risk of corporate bankruptcy - the conceptual model
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of different types of risks influencing the corporate bankruptcy risk. The author has developed conceptual model that explains the causes and the trajectories of the collapse of enterprises. In the analyses such factors as demographic, financial, market, political and operational factors influencing the risk of failure were taken into account.
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Financial Markets and Bankruptcy Systems: Is there a Relationship?
PublikacjaPurpose: Filling the cognitive gap in the theory of ex-post transaction costs, i.e., at the stage of enforcing market transactions by examining the relationship between friendliness/severity of the bankruptcy and restructuring law towards debtors, the level of development of financial markets, the effectiveness of the judicial system and the rate of debt recovery. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research, the following methods...
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THE ANALYSIS OF THE BANKRUPTCY OF ENTERPRISES EXEMPLIFIED BY THE VISEGRAD GROUP
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries (prezentacja na konferencji TWENTY-SIXTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE MULTINATIONAL FINANCE SOCIETY)
PublikacjaUlotka konferencyjna: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modMainContent/uploadFiles/miscFiles/1562848077-MFC2019-Booklet-for-Distribution_2019-06-25.pdf
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublikacjaThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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The impact of bankruptcy regimes on entrepreneurship and innovation. Is there any relationship?
PublikacjaThe literature review indicates that bankruptcy law may play an important role in and be one of the factors infuencing the development of entrepreneurship, innovation, and thus economic growth, among other things. In previous studies, the analysis of the impact of bankruptcy law on individual variables has been conducted independently. Our aim was to conduct a holistic analysis, taking several factors into account simultaneously....
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublikacjaThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Impact of Feature Selection Methods on the Predictive Performance of Software Defect Prediction Models: An Extensive Empirical Study
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Błażej Prusak dr hab.
OsobyBłażej Prusak jest kierownikiem Katedry Finansów na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej oraz redaktorem naczelnym czasopisma Research on Enterprise in Modern Economy - theory and practice (REME)/Przedsiębiorstwo we współczesnej gospodarce - teoria i praktyka, a także członkiem komitetów redakcyjnych takich czasopism jak: Intellectual Economics; Przestrzeń. Ekonomia. Społeczeństwo; Akademia Zarządzania. Jest autorem...
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Multi-Criteria Early Warning System Against Enteprise Bankruptcy Risk
PublikacjaW artykule tym autor porównuje skuteczność opracowanego przez niego wielokryterialnego systemu wczesnego ostrzegania firm z tradycyjnym modelem analizy dyskryminacyjnej prognozowania upadłości. System wczesnego ostrzegania oparty został na metodzie logiki rozmytej. Badania te są jedną z pierwszych prób na świecie wykorzystania logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu zagrożenia bankructwem firm. Uzyskane wyniki świadczą o dużym potencjale...
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Bankruptcy Law Severity for Debtors: Comparative Analysis Among Selected Countries
PublikacjaPurpose: The objective of this paper is to propose the new indicator of bankruptcy law severity for debtors (BLSI-Bankruptcy Law Severity Index). On the basis of this index we conducted comparative analysis of debtor/creditor friendliness of bankruptcy laws among 27 selected countries. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research the following methods were used: analysis of legal acts, literature review and expert method. Findings:...
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Crystal Structure Prediction by Global Optimization as a Tool for Evaluating Potentials: Role of the Dipole Moment Correction Term in Successful Predictions
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Improving the prediction of biochar production from various biomass sources through the implementation of eXplainable machine learning approaches
PublikacjaExamining the game-changing possibilities of explainable machine learning techniques, this study explores the fast-growing area of biochar production prediction. The paper demonstrates how recent advances in sensitivity analysis methodology, optimization of training hyperparameters, and state-of-the-art ensemble techniques have greatly simplified and enhanced the forecasting of biochar output and composition from various biomass...
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Warning systems of enterprises against the risk of bankruptcy : Artificial intelligence in financial management.
PublikacjaJest to tłumaczenie na jęz.angielski monografii autora z 2010 roku. Monografia została podzielona na trzy części. I tak, w części pierwszej przedstawiono ocenę przyczyn upadłości firm ze względu nie tylko na źródło (zewnętrzne lub wewnętrzne) przyczyn kłopotów finansowych przedsiębiorstw, ale także na etap kryzysu, w jakim ono się znajduje, cechy "demograficzne" organizacji i rodzaj upadłości. Zdefiniowano również czynniki wpływające...
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Bankruptcy system model and efficiency versus the entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries
Publikacjamodel and its efficiency on the development of entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries and Turkey. This goal was achieved by examining the relationships between debtor-friendliness of the bankruptcy law model and its efficiency on one side and entrepreneurship and innovation on the other. The cross-sectional ANOVA test and OLS regression method were chosen as the research method. In order to verify the research...
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Short-Term Price Reaction to Filing for Bankruptcy and Restructuring Proceedings—The Case of Poland
PublikacjaThis study aims to check market reaction to filing for bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings and to verify the short-term effect of a price reversal in the Polish market in the years 2004–2019. The research was conducted by dividing the analysed companies according to the procedure (bankruptcy and restructuring) and market (the main market and the NewConnect market). The research methodology used in the study is the event analysis...
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Intraday price reaction to filing bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings – the evidence from Poland
PublikacjaThis chapter presents the results of research on the price reaction of shares listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange to filing bankruptcy and/or restructuring applications. Event study was adopted as the research method, and it was performed at 10, 5, and 1-minute intervals. It was found that the reaction is rapid, as it takes 1–2 minutes after the information on bankruptcy and restructuring applications was made public. Significantly...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublikacjaThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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First highly effective non-catalytic nitrobenzene reduction in UV/dithionite system with aniline production – Advanced reduction process (ARP) approach
PublikacjaAdvanced reduction processes (ARPs) are currently intensively investigated as an alternative to Advanced Oxidation Processes (AOPs). The study presents efficient reduction of nitrobenzene under non-catalytic conditions through reaction with free radicals having reductive potential. Effective conversion of nitrobenzene in a model wastewater solution, was obtained for sodium dithionite (SDT)/ dithionite (DTN). The developed process...
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Application of a hybrid mechanistic/machine learning model for prediction of nitrous oxide (N2O) production in a nitrifying sequencing batch reactor
PublikacjaNitrous oxide (N2O) is a key parameter for evaluating the greenhouse gas emissions from wastewater treatment plants. In this study, a new method for predicting liquid N2O production during nitrification was developed based on a mechanistic model and machine learning (ML) algorithm. The mechanistic model was first used for simulation of two 15-day experimental trials in a nitrifying sequencing batch reactor. Then, model predictions...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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Sanctions and their role in preventing the appropriation of the creditor’s property rights in bankruptcy proceedings–the case of Poland
PublikacjaThe aim of this paper is to fill the cognitive gap regarding the role of sanc-tions in the protection of a creditor’s property rights in the event of an entrepreneur insolvency. The impact of sanctions on transaction costs, including their identifica-tion and types, as well as the impact on the protection of creditor rights, has been poorly recognized in the subject literature to date. This article investigates...
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The role of stakeholders on rejection of bankruptcy applications in the case of “poverty” of the estate: A Polish case study
PublikacjaThe aim of this article is to supplement the Law and Economics area of science with regard to the scope of the ex ante effectiveness of bankruptcy law using the example of Poland. Bankruptcy law is effective in the ex ante stage when it eliminates from the market insolvent entrepreneurs who cannot even afford to cover the costs of bankruptcy proceedings. In these cases, the bankruptcy court should dismiss the petition for bankruptcy...
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Rhamnolipid CMC Prediction
PublikacjaRelationships between the purity, pH, hydrophobicity (log Kow) of the carbon substrate, and the critical micelle concentration (CMC) of rhamnolipid type biosurfactants (RL) were investigated using a quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) approach and are presented here for the first time. Measured and literature CMC values of 97 RLs, representing biosurfactants at different stages of purification, were considered....
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Does being socially good save firms from bankruptcy? A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis
PublikacjaThe purpose of the review was to find out, does being responsible saves firms from bank-ruptcy? What is the relationship between corporate social responsibility and default risk? What meth-ods and measures are used in the literature to evaluate this relationship? And what is the theoretical underpinning of the studies? Moreover, to explore what are the gaps for future work, Web of Science and Scopus databases were utilised to obtain...
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A Hierarchical Multiscale Approach to Protein Structure Prediction: Production of Low‐Resolution Packing Arrangements of Helices and Refinement of the Best Models with a United‐Residue Force Field
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Toward Prediction of Environmental Arctic Change
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Rating Prediction with Contextual Conditional Preferences
PublikacjaExploiting contextual information is considered a good solution to improve the quality of recommendations, aiming at suggesting more relevant items for a specific context. On the other hand, recommender systems research still strive for solving the cold-start problem, namely where not enough information about users and their ratings is available. In this paper we propose a new rating prediction algorithm to face the cold-start...
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COMPARISON OF BLOOD PRESSURE PREDICTION METHODS
PublikacjaIn the paper dierent approaches of predicting blood pressure values are presented. Basically, two methods and theirs modifications are considered. In total, seven algorithms have been examined. Tests have been conducted using both synthetic and clinical data. From our study it follows that none of the examined methods is superior to other.
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Multicomponent ionic liquid CMC prediction
PublikacjaWe created a model to predict CMC of ILs based on 704 experimental values published in 43 publications since 2000. Our model was able to predict CMC of variety of ILs in binary or ternary system in a presence of salt or alcohol. The molecular volume of IL (Vm), solvent-accessible surface (Sˆ), solvation enthalpy (DsolvGN), concentration of salt (Cs) or alcohol (Ca) and their molecular volumes (Vms and Vma, respectively) were chosen...
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numerical prediction of vortex generated by hydrofoil
PublikacjaW pracy przedstawiono wyniki obliczeń programami Fluent i Comet dla płata śruby napędowej. Pola prędkości oraz wirowość za płatem porównano z wynikami pomiarów (LDA- Laser Doppler Anemometry) w tunelu kawitacyjnym Centrum Techik Okrętowych (CTO). Przedstawiono wpływ adaptacji siatki wg różnych kryteriów (lokalnej wirowości lub prędkości) na zgodność wyników obliczeń z danymi eksperymentalnymi.
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Reply to “Comment on ‘Crystal Structure Prediction by Global Optimization as a Tool for Evaluating Potentials: Role of the Dipole Moment Correction Term in Successful Predictions'” by B. P. van Eijck and J. Kroon
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AOP173 key event associated pathway predictor – online application for the prediction of benchmark dose lower bound (BMDLs) of a transcriptomic pathway involved in MWCNTs-induced lung fibrosis
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Research in Logistics & Production
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Creep failure prediction of pipelines in elevated temperature
PublikacjaW pracy omówiono zastoswanie modelu konstytutytwnego pełzania pozwalającego na analizę trwałości metalowych ruruciągów pracujących w wysokich temperaturach. Zaprezentowano wyniki obliczeń opartych na metodzie elementów skończonych (MES) wykonanych z wykorzystaniem procedur użytkownika w komercyjnym programie MES. Porównano wyniki dla dwóch typów 4-węzłowych elementów powłokowych.
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Prediction of Deflagrative Explosions in Variety of Closed Vessels
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Prediction of coking dynamics for wet coal charge
PublikacjaA one-dimensional transient mathematical model describing thermal and flow phenomena during coal coking in an oven chamber was studied in the paper. It also accounts for heat conduction in the ceramic oven wall when assuming a constant temperature at the heating channel side. The model was solved numerically using partly implicit methods for gas flow and heat transfer problems. The histories of temperature, gas evolution and internal...