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Search results for: DESIGN UNDER UNCERTAINTY
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Effects of full displacement pile installation on the stress and deformation state of surrounding soil: review
PublicationSeveral field and model tests have been conducted to investigate the impact of pile installation on bearing capacity. However, little is known about how piles behave during installation, how they interact with the surrounding soil, and how this affects sandy soil properties. This review paper investigates the effect of pile driving on surrounding sandy soil as it compacts sandy soil near to the pile. For this purpose, various related...
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Expedited Variable-Resolution Surrogate Modeling of Miniaturized Microwave Passives in Confined Domains
PublicationDesign of miniaturized microwave components is largely based on computational models, primarily, full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulations. EM analysis is capable of giving an accurate account for cross-coupling effects, substrate and radiation losses, or interactions with environmental components (e.g., connectors). Unfortunately, direct execution of EM-based design tasks such as parametric optimization or uncertainty quantification,...
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Performance-Driven Surrogate Modeling of High-Frequency Structures
PublicationThe development of modern high-frequency structures, including microwave and antenna components, heavily relies on full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulation models. Notwithstanding, EM-driven design entails considerable computational expenses. This is especially troublesome when solving tasks that require massive EM analyzes, parametric optimization and uncertainty quantification be-ing representative examples. The employment of...
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Functional safety and reliability analysis methodoloogy for hazardous industrial plants
PublicationThis monograph is devoted to current problems and methods of the functional safety and reliability analyses of the programmable control and protection systems for industrial hazardous plants. The results of these analyses are useful in the process of safety management in life cycle, for effective reducing relevant risks at the design stage, and then controlling these risks during the operation of given installation. The methodology...
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Monitoring of Chlorine Concentration in Drinking Water Distribution Systems Using an Interval Estimator
PublicationThis paper describes the design of an interval observer for the estimation of unmeasured quality state variables in drinking water distribution systems. The estimator utilizes a set bounded model of uncertainty to produce robust interval bounds on the estimated state variables of the water quality. The bounds are generated by solving two differential equations. Hence the numerical efficiency is sufficient for on-line monitoring...
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Blowing Kinetics, Pressure Resistance, Thermal Stability, and Relaxation of the Amorphous Phase of the PET Container in the SBM Process with Hot and Cold Mold. Part II: Statistical Analysis and Interpretation of Tests
PublicationThe technology of filling drinks without preservatives (such as fresh juices, iced tea drinks, and vitaminized drinks) is carried out using hot filling. Mainly due to the production costs and lower carbon footprint, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles are increasingly used in this technology. In this paper, the main aim is to describe and interpret the results of statistical analysis of the influence of the temperature of...
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Blowing Kinetics, Pressure Resistance, Thermal Stability, and Relaxation of the Amorphous Phase of the PET Container in the SBM Process with Hot and Cold Mold. Part I: Research Methodology and Results
PublicationThe technology of filling drinks without preservatives (such as fresh juices, iced tea drinks, vitaminized drinks) is carried out using hot filling. Mainly due to the production costs and lower carbon footprint, polyethylene terephthalate bottles, commonly called PET, are increasingly used in this technology. In this paper, the main aim is to describe the statistical analysis methodology of the influence of the temperature of the...
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Accurate Modeling of Antenna Structures by Means of Domain Confinement and Pyramidal Deep Neural Networks
PublicationThe importance of surrogate modeling techniques has been gradually increasing in the design of antenna structures over the recent years. Perhaps the most important reason is a high cost of full-wave electromagnetic (EM) analysis of antenna systems. Although imperative in ensuring evaluation reliability, it entails considerable computational expenses. These are especially pronounced when carrying out EM-driven design tasks such...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublicationA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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Expedited Yield Optimization of Narrow- and Multi-Band Antennas Using Performance-Driven Surrogates
PublicationUncertainty quantification is an important aspect of engineering design, also pertaining to the development and performance evaluation of antenna systems. Manufacturing tolerances as well as other types of uncertainties, related to material parameters (e.g., substrate permittivity) or operating conditions (e.g., bending) may affect the antenna characteristics. In the case of narrow- or multi-band antennas, this usually leads to...
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Profesor Stanisław Trzetrzewiński – polski prekursor niepewności pomiaru
PublicationArtykuł ma na celu przybliżenie sylwetki Profesora Stanisława Trzetrzewińskiego, jako pierwszego kierownika Katedry Miernictwa Elektrycznego na Wydziale Elektrycznym Politechniki Gdańskiej, odpowiedzialnego za organizację Katedry po wojnie, dydaktyka, ale przede wszystkim wybitnego metrologa. Profesora Stanisława Trzetrzewińskiego można nazwać polskim prekursorem teorii niepewności pomiaru, co potwierdza wygłoszony w 1952 roku...
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Homogeneity study of candidate reference material (contaminated soil) based on determination of selected metals, PCBs and PAHs
PublicationReference materials (RMs) are an indispensable part of QA/QC system and have played a critical role in the continual expansion of analytical capabilities of the analytical laboratories. The homogeneity study of the candidate for reference material is essential for the quality of reference material (certified reference material) used in quality assurance activities. The homogeneity study of candidate for reference materials of contaminated...
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Raman Spectra Measurements for Chemical Identifications - Aspect of Uncertainty Sources and Reduction of Their Effects
PublicationRaman spectrometers enable fast and non-contact identification of examined chemicals. These devices measure Raman spectra and compare with the spectra database to identify unknown and often illicit chemicals (e.g. drugs, explosives) usually without any sample preparation. Raman spectra measurements are a challenge due to noise and interferences present outside the laboratories (field applications). The design of a portable Raman...
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Antenna Modeling Using Variable-Fidelity EM Simulations and Constrained Co-Kriging
PublicationUtilization of fast surrogate models has become a viable alternative to direct handling of fullwave electromagnetic (EM) simulations in EM-driven design. Their purpose is to alleviate the difficulties related to high computational cost of multiple simulations required by the common numerical procedures such as parametric optimization or uncertainty quantification. Yet, conventional data-driven (or approximation) modeling techniques...
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Integrated model for the fast assessment of flood volume: Modelling – management, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
PublicationThe specific flood volume is an important criterion for assessing the performance of sewage networks. It has been shown that its value is greatly influenced by the layout of the sewers in the catchment area, which is usually expressed by a fractal dimension. Currently, only mechanistic models (such as SWMM) enable the determination of the impact of the layout of the sewers on flooding volume, but they require additional and robust...
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Functional safety and cyber security analysis for life cycle management of industrial control systems in hazardous plants and oil port critical infrastructure including insurance
PublicationThis report addresses selected methodological aspects of proactive reliability, functional safety and cyber security management in life cycle of industrial automation and control systems (IACS) in hazardous plants and oil port critical installations based on the analysis of relevant hazards / threats and evaluation of related risks. In addition the insurance company point of view has been also considered, because nowadays the insurer,...
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Reliable computationally-efficient behavioral modeling of microwave passives using deep learning surrogates in confined domains
PublicationThe importance of surrogate modeling techniques has been steadily growing over the recent years in high-frequency electronics, including microwave engineering. Fast metamodels are employed to speedup design processes, especially those conducted at the level of full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulations. The surrogates enable massive system evaluations at nearly EM accuracy and negligible costs, which is invaluable in parameter...
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Optimizing control by robustly feasible model predictive control and application to drinking water distribution systems
PublicationThe paper considers optimizing Model Predictive Control (MPC) for nonlinear plants with output constraints under uncertainties. Although the MPC technology can handle the constraints in the model by solving constraint model based optimization task, satisfying the plant output constraints under the model uncertainty still remains a challenge. The paper proposes Robustly Feasible MPC (RFMPC), which achieves feasibility of the outputs...
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Analysis of Investments in RES Based on the Example of Photovoltaic Panels in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk—A Case Study
PublicationThe aim of this study is to examine the profitability of investment in a photovoltaic microinstallation, to analyze the impact of legal changes on its profitability, and to perform a sensitivity analysis of the investment profitability to energy price changes. The novelty of the research applies to the financial analysis of two legal systems of discount called net-metering and net-billing. The two systems and the change in energy...
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Accounting for the distributions of input quantities in the procedure for the measurement uncertainty evaluation when calibrating the goniometer
PublicationThe discords concerning the measurement uncertainty evaluation in the Guide to the Expressing of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and its Supplement 1 are considered. To overcome these discords, the authors of the paper propose to use the kurtosis method and the law of the propagation of the expanded uncertainty. Using the example of the goniometer calibration, the features of accounting for the distribution laws of input quantities...
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Improved Modeling of Microwave Structures Using Performance-Driven Fully-Connected Regression Surrogate
PublicationFast replacement models (or surrogates) have been widely applied in the recent years to accelerate simulation-driven design procedures in microwave engineering. The fundamental reason is a considerable—and often prohibitive—CPU cost of massive full-wave electromagnetic (EM) analyses related to solving common tasks such as parametric optimization or uncertainty quantification. The most popular class of surrogates are data-driven...
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Towards Improving Optimised Ship Weather Routing
PublicationThe aim of the paper is to outline a project focusing on the development of a new type of ship weather routing solution with improved uncertainty handling, through better estimation of ship performance and responses to sea conditions. Ensemble forecasting is considered to take into account the uncertainty levels that are typical of operations in a stochastic environment. Increased accuracy of weather prediction is achieved through...
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Cryptocurrencies as a speculative asset. How much uncertainty is included in cryptocurrency price?
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between uncertainty indices (Geopolitical Uncertainty Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index) and cryptocurrencies. In order to conduct research, the authors collected the data on the major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Dogecoin and USD coin) which account for 78% of the total market cap. Using panel OLS regression, this study finds that Bitcoin...
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Conjectured strong complementary-correlations tradeoff
PublicationWe conjecture uncertainty relations that restrict correlations between the results of measurements performed by two separate parties on a shared quantum state. The first uncertainty relation bounds the sum of two mutual informations when one party measures a single observable and the other party measures one of two observables. The uncertainty relation does not follow from the Maassen-Uffink uncertainty relation and is much stronger...
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The Influence of Camera and Optical System Parameters on the Uncertainty of Object Location Measurement in Vision Systems
PublicationThe article presents the influence of the camera and its optical system on the uncertainty of object position measurement in vision systems. The aim of the article is to present the methodology for estimating the combined standard uncertainty of measuring the object position with a vision camera treated as a measuring device. The identification of factors affecting the location measurement uncertainty and the determination of their...
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Uncertainty of the liquid mass flow measurement using the orifice plate
PublicationThe article presents an estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. This subject is essential because of the widespread use of this type of flow meters. Not only the quantitative estimation but also the qualitative results of those measurements are important. To achieve these results the authors of the paper propose to use the theory of uncertainty. The article shows the analysis of the...
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Trust-Based Model for the Assessment of the Uncertainty of Measurements in Hybrid IoT Networks
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to introduce a NUT model (NUT: network-uncertainty-trust) that aids the decrease of the uncertainty of measurements in autonomous hybrid Internet of Things sensor networks. The problem of uncertainty in such networks is a consequence of various operating conditions and varied quality of measurement nodes, making statistical approach less successful. This paper presents a model for decreasing the uncertainty...
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Impact of probability distribution on the uncertainty of resistance measurement
PublicationThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of resistance: 100 G. The analysis of the uncertainty...
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Validation of a sampling procedure
PublicationEach step of the analytical procedure influences the final results in a significant way. In the majority of cases the analytical procedure encompasses sampling because the analysis of the entire object (material) is usually not possible. Thus it is necessary to include the uncertainty related to sampling procedure in the uncertainty budget calculations. This paper describes two basic ways of estimating the sampling uncertainty,...
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Estimating the uncertainty of the liquid mass flow using the orifice plate
PublicationThe article presents estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. This subject is essential because of the widespread use of this type of flow meters, which renders not only the quantitative estimation but also qualitative results of this type so those measurements are important. To achieve this goal, the authors of the paper propose to use the theory of uncertainty. The article shows the...
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NON-LINE ANALYSIS OF STIFFNESS IN COMPRESSION CONDITIONS
PublicationThe analyzes were aimed at demonstrating the influence of parameters describing the deformation of the structure on the uncertainty of critical force, and the impact of technological imperfections on stress uncertainty in compression conditions. In a linear buckling analysis, the problem is considered only for the initial, permanent state of the stiffness matrix. In the case of demonstrating the influence of initial deformations...
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Uncertainty of Postmortem Time Estimation Based on Potassium Ion Determination in Vitreous Humor Using Potentiometric Ion-Selective Electrode and Microwave-Induced Plasma with Optical Emission Spectrometry Methods
PublicationThere is a need for a reliable and independent evaluation and confirmation of the post-mortem interval (PMI) based on objective factors other than only postmortem changes or temperature measurements. Estimating the PMI by examining the concentration of potassium ions in the vitreous humor (VH) has a tradition in forensic toxicology dating back to the mid-20th century. So far, the methods for determining the presence of potassium...
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INFLUENCE OF WRONGLY ASSUMED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF RESISTANCE MEASUREMENT BY TECHNICAL METHOD
PublicationThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The most commonly used distribution is the rectangular distribution. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of two resistances:...
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Eventual Convergence of the Reputation-Based Algorithm in IoT Sensor Networks
PublicationUncertainty in dense heterogeneous IoT sensor networks can be decreased by applying reputation-inspired algorithms, such as the EWMA (Exponentially Weighted Moving Average) algorithm, which is widely used in social networks. Despite its popularity, the eventual convergence of this algorithm for the purpose of IoT networks has not been widely studied, and results of simulations are often taken in lieu of the more rigorous proof....
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Determination of the uncertainty of mass flow measurement using the orifice for different values of the Reynolds number
PublicationStandard orifice flowmeters are widely used in the chemical and energy industry. Therefore, it is essential to know how accurate the measurements made with these instruments are. The paper presents an estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. The authors will present the influence of ranges of the Reynolds number on the estimated uncertainty, obtained on the basis of simulation and laboratory...
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Estimation of the uncertainty of the AC/AC transducer output voltage
PublicationThe paper presents a methodology for estimating uncertainty of voltage transducers processing function, on the example of CYVS411D07 voltage transducers. The analysis was conducted using the method based on the GUM Guide propagation of uncertainty law and the determination of the coverage factor based on the effective number of degrees of freedom (t-Student distribution). The paper also presents example evaluation results of measured...
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The Response of Selected Domestic Capital Markets on the Development of COVID-19 Pandemic – a Broader View
PublicationObjective: The study examines how the record of the first, hundredth, thousandth, ten-thousandth, one-hundred-thousandth, and millionth cases of COVID-19 affected investor behaviour in capital markets. It also looks at whether the month in which the first case was recorded in a given market affected the direction and strength of investor reactions. Lastly, it verifies whether the two announcements made by the WHO related to COVID-19...
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Estimation of the uncertainty of the LEM CV 3-500 transducers processing function
PublicationThe paper presents the methodology for estimating uncertainty of a voltage transducer processing function based on the example of LEM CV 3-500 transducer. The analysis was performed using the method based on the GUM Guide propagation of uncertainty law and the Monte Carlo numerical method. The article also presents a comparative analysis of the results of a voltage measurement evaluation done using the Monte Carlo simulation method,...
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Sampling Strategies: Statistics of Sampling
PublicationEach step of the analytical procedure has a significant influence on the final result of the analysis. In the majority of cases the analytical procedure encompasses sampling because the analysis of the entire object (material) is usually not possible. Thus it is necessary to include the uncertainty related to sampling procedure in the uncertainty budget calculations. In the paper: the most important properties of the analysed...
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Uncertainty estimation of loop impedance measurement determined by the vector method
PublicationThis article presents a detailed analysis of uncertainty estimation of loop impedance measurement determined by the vector method. The analysis includes the following estimates: resistance variance, voltage variance and time measurement variance. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the combined standard uncertainty of loop impedance by the vector method. The vector method allows to determine loop impedance based on...
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Quantitative assessment
PublicationThe main trends in the development of analytical chemistry are the determination of increasingly lower concentrations of analytes in samples with complex matrix composition (trace analysis). While the obtained analytical results must be reliable, which means that they must accurately (truly and precisely) reflect the actual content of analytes in a representative sample of the material object under study. However, it is an extremely...
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Affective Learning Manifesto – 10 Years Later
PublicationIn 2004 a group of affective computing researchers proclaimed a manifesto of affective learning that outlined the prospects and white spots of research at that time. Ten years passed by and affective computing developed many methods and tools for tracking human emotional states as well as models for affective systems construction. There are multiple examples of affective methods applications in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS)....
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Steering is an essential feature of non-locality in quantum theory
PublicationA physical theory is called non-local when observers can produce instantaneous effects over distant systems. Non-local theories rely on two fundamental effects: local uncertainty relations and steering of physical states at a distance. In quantum mechanics, the former one dominates the other in a well-known class of non-local games known as XOR games. In particular, optimal quantum strategies for XOR games are completely determined...
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Peculiarities of measurement uncertainty evaluation at calibrating a ring gauge
PublicationExample S13 from EA-4/02 M:2013 “Calibration of a ring gauge with a nominal diameter of 90 mm” is analyzed. The report uses the kurtosis method and the law of propagation of expanded uncertainty developed by the authors to the expanded uncertainty evaluation. It is shown that the introduction of a coaxiality correction for the ring gauge and the measuring axis of the comparator leads to the need to estimate its standard measurement...
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Uncertainty of mass flow measurement using centric and eccentric orifice for Reynolds number in the range 10,000 ≤ Re ≤ 20,000
PublicationThe article analyses the impact of the Reynolds number on the estimated uncertainty of the mass flow rate measurement using an orifice plate. The objects of the research were two types of orifices: centric (ISA) and eccentric, with the diameter ratio β = 0.5. Studies were performed by Monte Carlo simulation and experiments for Reynolds numbers in the range 10,000 ≤ Re ≤ 20,000. The obtained results have shown that for both orifice...
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Trade-offs in multiparty Bell-inequality violations in qubit networks
PublicationTwo overlapping bipartite binary input Bell inequalities cannot be simultaneously violated as this would contradict the usual no-signalling principle. This property is known as monogamy of Bell inequality violations and generally Bell monogamy relations refer to trade-offs between simultaneous violations of multiple inequalities. It turns out that multipartite Bell inequalities admit weaker forms of monogamies that allow for violations...
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A hierarchical observer for a non-linear uncertain CSTR model of biochemical processes
PublicationThe problem of estimation of unmeasured state variables and unknown reaction kinetic functions for selected biochemical processes modelled as a continuous stirred tank reactor is addressed in this paper. In particular, a new hierarchical (sequential) state observer is derived to generate stable and robust estimates of the state variables and kinetic functions. The developed hierarchical observer uses an adjusted asymptotic observer...
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An Analysis of Uncertainty and Robustness of Waterjet Machine Positioning Vision System
PublicationThe paper presents a new Automatic Waterjet Positioning Vision System (AWPVS) and investigates components of workpiece positioning accuracy. The main purpose of AWPVS is to precisely identify the position and rotation of a workpiece placed on a waterjet machine table. Two webcams form a basis for the system, and constitute its characteristics. The proposed algorithm comprises various image processing techniques to assure a required...
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Uncertainty quantification of modal parameter estimates obtained from subspace identification: An experimental validation on a laboratory test of a large-scale wind turbine blade
PublicationThe uncertainty afflicting modal parameter estimates stems from e.g., the finite data length, unknown, or partly measured inputs and the choice of the identification algorithm. Quantification of the related errors with the statistical Delta method is a recent tool, useful in many modern modal analysis applications e.g., damage diagnosis, reliability analysis, model calibration. In this paper, the Delta method-based uncertainty...
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Uncertainty analysis of measuring system for instantaneous power research
PublicationThe paper presents a metrological analysis of the measurement system used for diagnosis of induction motor bearings, based on the analysis of the instantaneous power. This system was implemented as a set of devices with dedicated software installed on a PC. A number of measurements for uncertainty estimation was carried out. The results of the measurements are presented in the paper. The results of the aforementioned analysis helped...