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Search results for: PROBABILISTIC METHOD
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Probabilistic Methods in Reliability Assessment of Engineering Lightweight Structures
PublicationThe paper considers the probability-based analysis of structural safety measures. Two different numerical examples of representative lightweight structures are considered – a submerged truss tower supporting an offshore platform, and an overhead power line support truss tower. On the basis of these examples, the importance of a motivated selection of analysis method and a proper choice of the number of important variables is shown....
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Implementation of Non-Probabilistic Methods for Stability Analysis of Nonlocal Beam with Structural Uncertainties
PublicationIn this study, a non-probabilistic approach based Navier’s Method (NM) and Galerkin Weighted Residual Method (GWRM) in term of double parametric form has been proposed to investigate the buckling behavior of Euler-Bernoulli nonlocal beam under the framework of the Eringen's nonlocal elasticity theory, considering the structural parameters as imprecise or uncertain. The uncertainties in Young’s modulus and diameter of the beam are...
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Simplified probabilistic analysis of settlement of cyclically loaded soil stratum using point estimate method
PublicationThe paper deals with the probabilistic analysis of settlement of a non-cohesive soil layer subjected to cyclic loading. Originally, the settlement assessment is based on deterministic compaction model which requires integration of a set of differential equations. However, making use of the Bessel functions the settlement of the soil stratum can be calculated by means of simplified algorithm. The compaction model parameters were...
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Risk Analysis by a Probabilistic Model of the Measurement Process
PublicationThe aim of the article is presentation of the testing methodology and results of examination the probabilistic model of the measurement process. The case study concerns the determination of the risk of an incorrect decision in the assessment of the compliance of products by measurement. Measurand is characterized by the generalized Rayleigh distribution. The model of the meas-urement process was tested in parallel mode by six risk...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of limit states of structures : The Monte Carlo simulation
PublicationThe main issue of the paper is the probabilistic sensitivity of the limit states of structures with respect to selected input design variables. Attempt to the problem is done by the dedicated Monte Carlo simulation procedure. Basic design variables are random variables of given probability distributions, presented in the form of random numbers. Uni-parametrical increment of the dominant basic variable (basic variables) is done,...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of the limit states of structures using Monte Carlom simulation
PublicationThe paper presents the concept of probabilistic sensitivity of structural limit states with respect to given design variables. A general idea is presented, illustrated by a simple case solved in an analytical way. More general approach is presented for the engineering structures, in this case a dedicated Monte Carlo simulation procedure is involved as part of the methodology. Illustration of the engineering case is done, by means...
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Application of probabilistic tools to extend load test design of bridges prior to opening
PublicationLoad tests of bridges are widely performed in a large number of countries. Deterministic comparison of measurement results to the theoretical, FEM (finite element method)-based outcomes with possible further calibration is mostly applied. Sometimes, the data collected in the tests are also used to calibrate the reliability factors of bridge structures or their components. This work proposes to complement the stage of the load test...
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PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF A SPACE TRUSS BY MEANS OF A MULTIDIMENSIONAL VARIABLE DESCRIPTION
PublicationThe objective of this paper is to present a variant of the point estimate method (PEM) to determine mean values and standard deviations of limit loads of engineering structures. This approach is illustrated by limit state analysis of a space truss, considering geometric and material imperfections. The calculations were performed for different random models, so the influence of random parameters on the limit load of the truss can...
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Probabilistic Analysis of Structure Models using Target Random Sampling (TRS)
PublicationThe work presents testing methods of sensitivity and reliability of mechanical or structural systems. All computations concerned the case of Zigler column, a simple model of a compressed column involving two random variables only. A conclusion was drawn that the standard Monte Carlo method, its reduction variants and the response surface method allow to assess the sensitivity of structural response to the variation of random structural...
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Probabilistic estimation of diverse soil condition impact on vertical axis tank deformation
PublicationThe calculations of fuel tanks should take into account the geometric imperfections of the structure as well as the variability of the material parameters of the foundation. The deformation of the tank shell can have a significant impact on the limit state of the structure and its operating conditions. The paper presents a probabilistic analysis of a vertical-axis, floating-roof cylindrical shell of a tank with a capacity of 50000...
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Simulation of the number of storm overflows considering changes in precipitation dynamics and the urbanisation of the catchment area: a probabilistic approach
PublicationThis paper presents a probabilistic methodology that allows the study of the interactions between changes in rainfall dynamics and impervious areas in urban catchment on a long- and short-term basis. The proposed probabilistic model predict future storm overflows while taking into account the dynamics of changes in impervious areas and rainfall. In this model, a logistic regression method was used to simulate overflow resulting...
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Improving the procedure of probabilistic load testing design of typical bridges based on structural response similarities
PublicationThis paper concerns load testing of typical bridge structures performed prior to operation. In-situ tests of a two-span post-tensioned bridge loaded with three vehicles of 38-ton mass each formed the input of this study. On the basis of the results of these measurements, an advanced FEM model of the structure was developed for which the sensitivity analysis was performed for chosen uncertainty sources. Three uncorrelated random...
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Probabilistic Approach to Precipitation-Runoff Relation in a Mountain Catchment: A Case Study of the Kłodzka Valley in Poland
PublicationOn the basis of daily precipitation and discharges recorded in 1974–2013 relations between precipitation and runoff in the Kłodzka Valley (KV) in south-western Poland were analyzed. The degree of synchronicity between them was determined using the bivariate Archimedean copulas. This study aims at identifying and then describe in a probabilistic way the precipitation and runoff relations in the area playing an important role...
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Towards More Realistic Probabilistic Models for Data Structures: The External Path Length in Tries under the Markov Model
PublicationTries are among the most versatile and widely used data structures on words. They are pertinent to the (internal) structure of (stored) words and several splitting procedures used in diverse contexts ranging from document taxonomy to IP addresses lookup, from data compression (i.e., Lempel- Ziv'77 scheme) to dynamic hashing, from partial-match queries to speech recognition, from leader election algorithms to distributed hashing...
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Melody Harmonization with Interpolated Probabilistic Models
PublicationMost melody harmonization systems use the generative hidden Markov model (HMM), which model the relation between the hidden chords and the observed melody. Relations to other variables, such as the tonality or the metric structure, are handled by training multiple HMMs or are ignored. In this paper, we propose a discriminative means of combining multiple probabilistic models of various musical variables by means of model interpolation....
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Reliability assessment of truss towers using Monte Carlo Method, PEM and RSM
PublicationThe paper discusses the reliability assessment of simple random truss structures using three different probabilistic methodologies: the Monte Carlo method, the Point Estimate Method and the Response Surface Method. A benchmark truss structure example is analyzed. A set of numerical calculations of critical load is performed and the results are taken as the basis of advanced probabilistic calculations. Using the samples, numerical...
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Reliability assessment of truss towers using Monte Carlo Method, PEM and RSM
PublicationThe paper discusses reliability assessment of simple random truss structures using three different probabilistic methodologies: the Monte Carlo Method (MCM), the Point Estimate Method (PEM) and the Response Surface Method (RSM). A benchmark truss structure and a simplified full–size engineering tower are both analyzed. A set of ultimate load numerical calculations is performed and the results are taken as the basis of advanced...
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A probabilistic description of footbridges vibration serviceability
PublicationRozważa się użytkowalność kładki dla pieszych ze względu na ich drgania. Imperfekcje ruchu pieszych są opisane zmianami kluczowych współczynników. Częstotliwość ruchu, długość kroku oraz amplituda siły modelującej pieszego są opisywane rozkładami prawdopodobieństwa. Stosuje się metodę Monte Carlo. Dane z symulacji probabilistycznych używa się do obliczeń numerycznych. Aby zredukować liczbę realizacji, przeprowadza się analizę zbieżności...
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A probabilistic description of footbridges vibration serviceability
PublicationRozważa się użytkowalność kładki dla pieszych ze względu na ich drgania. Imperfekcje ruchu pieszych są opisane zmianami współczynników tegoż ruchu. Bierze się pod uwagę rozkłady prawdopodobieństwa częstotliwości ruchu, długości kroku oraz amplitudy siły modelującej pieszego. Imperfekcje te znacznie wpływają na zachowanie konstrukcji. Stosuje się metodę Monte Carlo. Dane z symulacji probabilistycznych używa się do obliczeń numerycznych....
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The Point Estimate Method in a Reticulated Shell Reliability Analysis
PublicationThe objective of this paper is to present an application of the point estimate method (PEM) to determine the probabilistic moments for engineering structures. Reliability analysis is illustrated by two examples: an estimation of the critical force in linear elastic buckling analysis and a reticulated shell limit load determinations. Calculations were also made using Monte Carlo method. It has been shown the practical usefulness...
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How to apply the probabilistic model of measurement processes successfully
PublicationApplicational aspects of probabilistic model of measurement processes, proposed by G.B. Rossi, are considered. The main idea of the model - using of Bayes-Laplace postulate for solution of inverse probability problem, is substituted by Fisher's concept of the likelihood function, expressed in the data translated format. This approach gives a clear-sighted solution of inverse probability. Some recommendations for application of...
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Probabilistic analysis of slope with planar slip surface
PublicationPraca dotyczy probabilistycznej oceny stateczności zboczy. Omówiono sposób określania prawdopodobieństwa utraty stateczności przy wykorzystaniu metody momentów (ang. FOSM). Podejście takie zastosowano do analizy zsuwu konsekwentnego jednorodnego zbocza. Rozpatrzono wpływ zmienności statystycznej parametrów wytrzymałościowych na końcowe wyniki.
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Showing compliance of probabilistic assessments with safety goals
PublicationW niektórych standardach formułuje się wymagania, że wyniki modelowania probabilistycznego i oszacowań ryzyka powinny zawierać ocenę niepewności. Modelowanie złożonych systemów bazuje w praktyce na kategoriach zdarzeń, które są mniej lub więcej rozmyte. Artykuł dotyczy kwestii wykazywania zgodności wyników modelowania probabilistycznego z ilościowymi kryteriami bezpieczeństwa. Proponuje się metodę definiowania takich kryteriów...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of limit states of structures. The Monte Carlo simulation
PublicationDesign sensitivity deals with the variation of structural response, implicitly dependent on the design variables of the problem. An attempt is made to implement probabilistic notation in engineering sensitivity analysis. The procedure to implement the sensitivity of a structural limit state to a given basic variable is described in the paper - its main idea, depicted by a flowchart and numerical examples of engineering analysis....
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Probabilistic evaluation of test architectures for fully differential circuits
PublicationArtykuł prezentuje model probabilistyczny przeznaczony do oceny, porównania i optymalizacji architektur testujących układy w pełni różnicowe. Model ma postać funkcji rozkładów gęstości prawdopodobieństwa amplitudy i fazy sygnału mierzonego w trakcie testowania. Parametry modelu są wyznaczane za pomocą rozwinięcia funkcji układowej w szereg Taylora. Poprawność modelu sprawdzono poprzez porównanie z wynikami symulacji, uzyskanymi...
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A probabilistic concept of load assessment of self-ignition engines
PublicationPrzedstawiono propozycję probabilistycznej interpretacji obciążenia silników spalinowych o zapłonie samoczynnym. Zaproponowano probabilistyczny opis obciążenia tych silników z uwzględnieniem znanych parametrów (wskaźników) ich pracy. Wykazano, że obciążenie tego rodzaju silników, rozpatrywane w dowolnej chwili, może być uważane za zmienną losową. Zwrócono uwagę, że obciążenie to może być uważane za zmienną losową wielowymiarową....
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Experimental measurements of friction forces on the tissue in probabilistic view
PublicationNiniejsza praca jest poświęcona wyznaczaniu wartości sił tarcia wywołanych podczas hydrodynamicznego przepływu lepkosprężystej cieczy odżywczej na powierzchniach hodowanych chondrocytów w bioreaktorze. Badania realizuje się w nano skali przy wykorzystaniu mikroskopu sił atomowych. Chondrocyty hodujemy w celu naprawy uszkodzonych chrząstek stawowych kolana człowieka.
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Deterministic and probabilistic interpretation of operation of technicalsystems with regard to their reliability
PublicationZaproponowano interpretację wartościującą działanie, które jest rozpatrywane jako wielkość fizyczna o jednostce miary zwanej dżulosekundą [dżulxsekunda]. Tak rozumiane działanie przedstawiono w ujęciu technicznym. Zaproponowano oryginalną metodę analizy i oceny działania dowolnego systemu technicznego z uwzględnieniem jego niezawodności. Szczególną uwagę zwrócono na interpretację działania silnika o zapłonie samoczynnym. Do uzasadnienia...
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A probabilistic model of envirinmental safety of ship power plant.
PublicationPrzedstawiono probabilistyczne podejście do oceny bezpieczeństwa środowiskowego siłowni statku. Wyznaczono miarę ryzyka oraz kryterium ryzyka środowiskowego siłowni statku.
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Structural reliability of overhead power lines by means of Monte Carlo Method and RSM
PublicationThe article discusses the issue of reliability assessment of overhead power lines by means of both Monte Carlo Method and Response Surface Method. The suspension tower OS24 ON150+10 is considered, as the weakest element of the line. A comparison is made between deterministic and probabilistic approaches to wind and icing loading. The PDFs for wind and icing loads are proposed. Reliability is assessed for both critical atmospheric...
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A CONCEPT OF DETERMINING THE RELATION BETWEEN LOAD AND WEAR OF TRIBOLOGICAL SYSTEMS OF SHIP MAIN SELF-IGNITION ENGINES BY USING PROBABILISTIC APPROACH PROBABILISTIC APPROACH
PublicationThis paper presents a proposal of simultaneous consideration of load and wear associated with it , of tribological systems of ship main engines (intended for ship propulsion) . Based on results of investigations it was assumed that both the load Q (i.e. a cause of wear ) and the wear Z (i.e. an effect of load occurrence) considered in a given time t(0 ≤ t ≤ t) are random variables Qt and Zt, respectively. There was characterized...
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A probabilistic-driven framework for enhanced corrosion estimation of ship structural components
PublicationThe work proposes a probabilistic-driven framework for enhanced corrosion estimation of ship structural components using Bayesian inference and limited measurement data. The new approach for modelling measurement uncertainty is proposed based on the results of previous corrosion tests that incorporate the non-uniform character of the corroded surface of structural components. The proposed framework's basic features are outlined,...
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Probabilistic analysis of settlements under a pile foundation of a road bridge pylon
PublicationThe paper addresses the reliability change of a road bridge pile foundation due to the unpredictable increase of settlements in time. The analysis is based on the Rędziński Bridge in Wrocław, Poland, its design assumptions, and monitoring results. The bridge foundation rests on a multi-layered subsoil assumed random. The Finite Element model of the subgrade is generated in ZSoil® software. To simplify the probabilistic approach,...
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Reliability-Based Stability Analysis of a Baltic Cliff by the Combined Response Surface Method
PublicationA simple, straightforward computational procedure was proposed, incorporating the Response Surface Method (RSM) linked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method and the Point Estimate Method (PEM). PEM samples make it possible to analyse the sensitivity of the cliff’s stability to variation in subsoil parameters and to reduce the number of random variables of the problem. The proposed methods were tested in two cases:...
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Construction of index generation unit using probabilistic data structures
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Probabilistic sensitivity of limit states of structures. The Monte Carlo simulation
PublicationPraca zawiera koncepcję badania wrażliwości stanów granicznych konstrukcji na zmiany poszczególnych zmiennych podstawowych, w oparciu o procedurę symulacyjną Monte Carlo. Sformułowanie ogólne metody oparte jest na analizie stanów granicznych konstrukcji, wprowadzona metoda losowa umożliwia badania histogramu stanu granicznego oraz estymację niezawodności / prawdopodobieństwa awarii konstrukcji.
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Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice
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Probabilistic prognosis of cliffslide along Baltic Sea coast in Poland.
PublicationAnaliza stateczności wybrzeży klifowych metodą probabilistyczną. Określnie stref zagrożonych utratą stateczności.
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The point estimate method in a reticulated shell reliability analysis
PublicationThe objective of this paper is to present an application of the point estimate method (PEM) that can determine the probabilistic moments for engineering structures. The method is reasonably robust and adequately accurate for a wide range of practical problems. It is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials. The main advantage of this method is that, unlike FORM or SORM, it is not necessary to carry...
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Data-driven, probabilistic model for attainable speed for ships approaching Gdańsk harbour
PublicationThe growing demand for maritime transportation leads to increased traffic in ports. From this arises the need to observe the consequences of the specific speed ships reach when approaching seaports. However, usually the analyzed cases refer only to the statistical evaluation of the studied phenomenon or to the empirical modelling, ignoring the mutual influence of variables such as ship type, length or weather conditions. In this...
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Probabilistic approach of the Upper and Middle Odra basin daily rainfall modeling
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The Role of Dopaminergic Genes in Probabilistic Reinforcement Learning in Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders
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Towards a probabilistic model for predicting ship besetting in ice in Arctic waters
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Towards an evidence-based probabilistic risk model for ship-grounding accidents
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A probabilistic model of ship performance in ice based on full-scale data
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Using Probabilistic Availability Measures for Predicting Targeted Attacks on Network Nodes
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Network Protection Against Node Attacks Based on Probabilistic Availability Measures
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Probabilistic limit state analysis of framed structures. The Monte Carlo simulation.
PublicationW pracy opisano koncepcję rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa stanu granicznego konstrukcji. Koncepcja ta oparta jest na problemowo zorientowanej procedurze symulacyjnej Monte Carlo. Niezawodnosć lub prawdopodobieństwo awarii układu oblicza się na podstawie rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa stanu granicznego.
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Probabilistic limit state analysis of framed structures. The Monte Carlo simulation.
PublicationW pracy opisana jest koncepcja rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa stanu granicznego konstrukcji, oparta na specjalnej procedurze symulacyjnej Monte Carlo. Główną ideę stanowi obliczenie mnożnika obciażenia granicznego w każdym kroku symulacyjnym. Niezawodnosć lub prawdopodobieństwo awarii konstrukcji sa charakterystykami rozkładu prawdopopdobieństwa stanu granicznego. Szczegółowo opisano dwa warianty symulacji.
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...