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Search results for: RISK CLASSES, FORECASTING
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The investment risk forecasting in a local energy market
PublicationThe paper considers the general problems faced when evaluating the risk of investing in a local energy market by computer tools. The proposal formulated for the emerging local energy markets suggests broadening the method of evaluating investment risk so as to include elements of cluster analysis. The paper also discusses the significance of estimating investment risk in market terms and the importance and range of the local energy...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk
PublicationThe objective of this study is to develop a multi-factor decision system predicting insolvency risk for natural persons with the use of fuzzy sets. Considering that the financial situation of households is affected by various endogenous and exogenous factors, the main assumption of this study is that the system for predicting financial difficulties should not be limited to the use of only a few financial variables concerning consumers,...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublicationThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Anna Rzeczycka dr hab.
PeopleAnna Rzeczycka is the deputy head of the Department of Finance at the Faculty of Economics and Management of the Gdańsk University of Technology. Publications are situated in the field of social sciences in the discipline of economics and finance. They include books, monographs, articles, publications and scientific editions of monographs and scientific journals. In terms of numbers, it includes the following items: 12 monographs...
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Michał Bernard Pietrzak dr hab.
PeopleMichal Pietrzak is head of the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at the Faculty of Economics and Management, Gdańsk University of Technology, and Deputy Editor-in-Chief for Statistical Reviewing of the journals: Oeconomia Copernicana and Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. Until October 2021, he worked as an associate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management, Nicolaus...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Pedestrian accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: Pedestrians. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Cyclist accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: Cyclists. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Child accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: children - drivers, passengers and . vulnerable road user.. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - All accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Young drivers accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: young driver offender. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Motorcycle and moped accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: motorcyclists and mopeds. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Elderly people accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: elderly people (65+) - drivers, passengers and . vulnerable road user. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Alcohol and drug accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: Offenders under influence of alcohol or drug - driver or pedestrian. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Head-on accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, type of accidents: head-on. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Night accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, time of accidents: Night. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Side-impact accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, type of accidents: Side-impact. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Excessive speed accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, cause of accidents: Excessive speed accidents. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Run off road accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, type of accidents: Run off road. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Medium to High and high road sections
Open Research DataData contain road sections with the highest number of accidents and victims on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019. Measures used to assess the level of risk is: minimum 4 accidents or 4 seriously injured or fatalities per one kilometer (5 classes: low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Błażej Prusak dr hab.
PeopleBłażej Prusak is Head of the Department of Finance at the Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Research on Enterprise in Modern Economy - theory and practice (REME), as well as a member of editorial boards of such journals as Intellectual Economics; Space. Economics. Society; Academy of Management. He is the author or co-author of several scientific monographs including:...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2019 - Municipality areas
Open Research DataData contain the number of accidents, victims, accident costs divided on municipality areas (119 areas) on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2019. Measures used to assess the level of social risk are (5 classes: low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2019 - Poviat areas
Open Research DataData contain the number of accidents, victims, accident costs divided on poviat areas (16 areas) on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2019. Measures used to assess the level of social risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublicationThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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Tomasz Korol dr hab. inż.
PeopleEducation Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2001) University of Applied Sciences Stralsund (1999) Degree / scientific title Habilitation – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2015) Ph.D. – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2004) Employment Gdańsk University of Technology - associate professor (since 2017); assistant professor...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Mateusz Muchlado dr
PeopleMateusz Muchlado - assistant professor at the Department of Management and Quality Engineering. He obtained a doctoral degree in management and quality sciences in 2020 at the Faculty of Management and Economics of the Gdańsk University of Technology, defending his thesis entitled "Outsourcing in selected medical entities of the Pomeranian Voivodeship". Associated with the Gdańsk University of Technology since 2010, a graduate...
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Bankruptcy system model and efficiency versus the entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries
Publicationmodel and its efficiency on the development of entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries and Turkey. This goal was achieved by examining the relationships between debtor-friendliness of the bankruptcy law model and its efficiency on one side and entrepreneurship and innovation on the other. The cross-sectional ANOVA test and OLS regression method were chosen as the research method. In order to verify the research...
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Defence in depth conception in nuclear power plants and requirements for instrumentation and control systems
PublicationThe aim of this article is to identify and discuss some issues of the safety systems’ design for nuclear power plants equipped with the light water reactors using a defence in depth (D-in-D) conception. Because the functional safety solutions play nowadays an important role for the risk control, the basic requirements for the instrumentation and control systems are specified with regard to relevant international standards. For...
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Andrzej Chybicki dr inż.
PeopleA graduate of the Faculty of Electronics, Telecommunications and Informatics at the Gdańsk University of Technology, PhD in technical sciences in the field of IT specializing in distributed data processing in IT . Aimed at exploiting the achievements and knowledge in the field of industrial research. He cooperated with a number of companies including OpeGieka Elbląg, Reson Inc., Powel Sp. z o. o., Wasat, Better Solutions, the European...
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Quantitative Risk Assessment in Construction Disputes Based on Machine Learning Tools
PublicationA high monetary value of the construction projects is one of the reasons of frequent disputes between a general contractor (GC) and a client. A construction site is a unique, one-time, and single-product factory with many parties involved and dependent on each other. The organizational dependencies and their complexity make any fault or mistake propagate and influence the final result (delays, cost overruns). The constant will...
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Is Artificial Intelligence Ready to Assess an Enterprise’s Financial Security?
PublicationThis study contributes to the literature on financial security by highlighting the relevance of the perceptions and resulting professional judgment of stakeholders. Assessing a company’s financial security using only economic indicators—as suggested in the existing literature—would be inaccurate when undertaking a comprehensive study of financial security. Specifically, indices and indicators based on financial or managerial reporting...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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Assessing groundwater vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastline of the inner Puck Bay using GALDIT method
PublicationIn this research, GALDIT method was used to assess seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer of the inner Puck Bay (Southern Baltic Sea). The impact of potential sea-level rise on groundwater vulnerability for years 2081-2100 was also considered. The study area was categorized into three classes of vulnerability: low, moderate and high. The most vulnerable area is the Hel Peninsula with northern part of the Kashubian Coastland....
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Assessing groundwater vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastline of the inner Puck Bay using GALDIT method
PublicationIn this research, GALDIT method was used to assess seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer of the inner Puck Bay (Southern Baltic Sea). The impact of potential sea-level rise on groundwater vulnerability for years 2081-2100 was also considered. The study area was categorized into three classes of vulnerability: low, moderate and high. The most vulnerable area is the Hel Peninsula with northern part of the Kashubian Coastland....
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Assessing and Mitigating Ice-Jam Flood Hazards and Risks: A European Perspective
PublicationThe assessment and mapping of riverine flood hazards and risks is recognized by many countries as an important tool for characterizing floods and developing flood management plans. Often, however, these management plans give attention primarily to open-water floods, with ice-jam floods being mostly an afterthought once these plans have been drafted. In some Nordic regions, ice-jam floods can be more severe than open-water floods,...
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The Many Faces of Enterococcus spp.—Commensal, Probiotic and Opportunistic Pathogen
PublicationEnterococcus spp. are Gram-positive, facultative, anaerobic cocci, which are found in the intestinal flora and, less frequently, in the vagina or mouth. Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium are the most common species found in humans. As commensals, enterococci colonize the digestive system and participate in the modulation of the immune system in humans and animals. For many years reference enterococcal strains have...
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries
PublicationIn developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject of researcher interest only in the 1990s. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze whether these countries conduct bankruptcy risk assessments and what their level of advancement is....
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Forecasting
Journals -
[Soft Skills] Smart metering - social risk perception and risk governance (2023/2024)
e-Learning CoursesThe aim of the course is to broaden the understanding of the risks associated with technology and to present the concept of social risk perception and risk management in the context of smart metering technology. In the current phase of technological development - called the Fourth Industrial Revolution - rapid and profound changes are creating new, particularly destabilizing threats. In the increasingly complex technological systems...
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A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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Smart metering - social risk perception and risk governance (10h, 2 ECTS credits)
e-Learning CoursesThe goal of the course is to broaden the understanding of technology-related risks and to present the concepts of social risk perception and risk governance in the context of smart metering technology. In current phase of technological development – known as the fourth industrial revolution – rapid and profound changes are setting up new and particularly destabilizing risks. In more and more complex technological systems that constitute...
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Forecasting risks and challenges of digital innovations
PublicationForecasting and assessment of societal risks related to digital innovation systems and services is an urgent problem, because these solutions usually contain artificial intelligence algorithms which learn using data from the environment and modify their behaviour much beyond human control. Digital innovation solutions are increasingly deployed in transport, business and administrative domains, and therefore, if abused by a malicious...
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublicationDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....