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FORECASTING ELECTRICITY PRICES IN POLAND
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Forecasting of retail prices of liquid fuels in Poland
PublicationMotivation: In recent years, the prices of liquid fuels in Poland have been rising , negatively affecting the country’s economy and the daily life of its inhabitants. Consequently, there is a need for effective forecasting of prices in fuel markets, as this could enable entrepreneurs and consumers to make more informed decisions. Aim: The objective of the article was to forecast the retail prices of EU95 petrol and diesel fuel...
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Analysis of Factors Influencing the Prices of Tourist Offers
PublicationTourism is a significant branch of many world economies. Many factors influence the volume of tourist traffic and the prices of trips. There are factors that clearly affect tourism, such as COVID-19. The paper describes the methods of machine learning and process mining that allow for assessing the impact of various factors (micro, mezzo and macro) on the prices of tourist offers. The methods were used on large sets of real data...
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Data on LEGO sets release dates and worldwide retail prices combined with aftermarket transaction prices in Poland between June 2018 and June 2023
PublicationThe dataset contains LEGO bricks sets item count and pricing history for AI-based set pricing prediction. The data spans the timeframe from June 2018 to June 2023. The data was obtained from three sources: Brickset.com (LEGO sets retail prices, release dates, and IDs), Lego.com official web page (ID number of each set that was released by Lego, its retail prices, the current status of the set) and promoklocki.pl web page (the retail...
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One Europe, one product, two prices - the price disparity in the EU
PublicationThe price dispersion in the European Union in the last fifteen years (1990-2005) is analysed. The analysis of price convergence is examined on aggregate and disaggregate levels. The macro approach is based on Comparative Price Level index calculated as the ratio between PPPs and exchange rate. The disaggregate analysis utilizesactual prices of 148 individual products sold in the 15 capital cities of the EU. The calculations comprise...
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Client’s Expectations vs Contractor’s Pricing. Fair Prices or Bid Rigging
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Can Web Search Queries Predict Prices Change on the Real Estate Market?
PublicationThis study aims to explore whether the intensity of internet searches, according to the Google Trends search volume index (SVI), is a predictor of changes in real estate prices. The motivation of this study is the possibility to extend the understanding of the extra predictive power of Google search engine query volume of future housing price change (shift direction) by (i) the introduction of a research approach that combines...
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3D Modeling of Discontinuity in the Spatial Distribution of Apartment Prices Using Voronoi Diagrams
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20+ years of Polish residential real estate prices – a house price index proxy
PublicationInformation on house prices is often considered crucial when assessing developments in economy. However, in Poland for the long time house prices haven’t been tracked in an organized manner. Recent developments, most notably house price indices developed by Poland’s national bank and by the statistical office do not go back more than 10 years, therefore data series are relatively short compared to those of other macroeconomic data. In...
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Exploring Cause-and-Effect Relationships Between Public Company Press Releases and Their Stock Prices
PublicationThe aim of the work is to design and implement a method of exploring the cause-and-effect relationships between company announcements and the stock prices on NASDAQ stock exchange, followed by a brief discussion. For this purpose, it was necessary to download the stock quotes of selected companies from the NASDAQ market from public web sources. Additionally, media messages related to selected companies had to be downloaded, and...
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Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case
PublicationThe study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank's base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in...
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Forecast of basic fuel prices in imports to Poland (constant prices in USD in 2007)
Open Research DataThis dataset presents price growth forecasts for conventional energy sources. It should be noted that the Ministry of Economy forecasts a more than two-fold increase in oil prices (although these forecasts may be greatly underestimated) over 23 years, an almost two-fold increase in natural gas prices and a 40% increase in coal prices.
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ETS prices 2008-2024
Open Research DataThe European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a carbon emission trading scheme (or cap and trade scheme) which began in 2005 and is intended to lower greenhouse gas emissions by the European Union countries. The "ETS prices 2008-2024" dataset contains a summary of ETS prices in 2008-2024.
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Data on LEGO sets release dates and retail prices combined with aftermarket transaction prices between June 2018 and June 2023.
Open Research DataThe dataset contains LEGO bricks sets item count and pricing history for AI-based set pricing prediction.
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Predicting the Purchase of Electricity Prices for Renewable Energy Sources Based on Polish Power Grids Data Using Deep Learning Models for Controlling Small Hybrid PV Microinstallations
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Share of gross value added by factors of production prices generated by the enterprise sector in Poland and in the EU countries in the GDP of individual countries
Open Research DataCompanies operating in the EU countries are characterized by a greater contribution to the creation of GDP than Polish enterprises. Discrepancies in shaping the described value also result from a different industry structure of companies. In other EU countries, more companies are involved in services, and in Poland, enterprises conducting commercial...
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Share of gross value added by factors of production prices generated by the enterprise sector in Poland and in the EU countries in the GDP of individual countries
Open Research DataCompanies operating in the EU countries are characterized by a greater contribution to the creation of GDP than Polish enterprises. Discrepancies in shaping the described value also result from a different industry structure of companies. In other EU countries, more companies are involved in services, and in Poland, enterprises conducting commercial...
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Aneta Sobiechowska-Ziegert dr
PeopleShe works at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at the Faculty of Management and Economics. She is passionate about using modern teaching methods in quantitative subjects. She is a certified coach and tutor. She teaches courses in economic forecasting and spatial econometrics. She is also the chair of the Faculty's Quality of Education Committee and oversees the EMOS education track, certified by Eurostat. Currently,...
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Annual growth of House price index in European Union in 2006-2017
Open Research DataThe financial crisis of 2008 has caused a number of changes in the investment of both companies and individuals. One of the widely invested assets became the real estate market. The decline in real estate prices was noted in 2009 and 2012-2014. The highest decrease in property prices was indicated in Bulgaria, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia and...
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Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz dr hab.
PeopleI am an Associate Professor at Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics. I gained my PhD in July 2006 for which I received the Polish Prime Ministry’s Award for the outstanding doctoral thesis. Between 2007 and 2008, I was a beneficiary of the Max Weber Fellowship at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy. I conducted part of my research at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium...
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Energy Security of Polish Consumers in 2004-2021
Open Research DataEnergy security is one of the most important components of economic security. It is influenced not only by access to energy sources and the economic situation of the state and the individual consumer. In the years 2004–2021, energy security of the individual consumer in the economic dimension significantly improved. This was due to several factors:1....
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Modelling of residential sales price with kriging using different distance metrics in different correlation functions
PublicationThe modelling and estimation of sales prices based on economical conditions are important for housing sector especially in developing countries. Analysts are focused on the subject to analyze price movements and estimate the future trend of the sales prices for housing sector. In this study, we tried to generate a robust and efficient model related to the subject. Firstly, we investigated economic variables affecting housing sales...
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Inflation rate (In percentage) in Iran
Open Research DataCurrently, a major concern of the Iranian economy is high inflation. Increasing prices of basic goods, and their increase in wages do not follow. At the same time the unemployment rate has raised. The following data set present the inflation rate between 2010-2020 (forecast).
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Household Ability of Expenditures on Electricity and Energy Resources in the Countries That Joined the EU after 2004
PublicationThe purpose of the following article is to present the situation of the energy market from a household perspective between 2010 and 2020 in selected EU countries (the group of member states which joined EU after 2004). The selected countries when joining the EU had similar economic indicators and to some extent were similar in other macro-economic situations (personal income, unemployment rate, GDP level and annual growth). This...
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Price Changes in Wholesale Market of Electrical Energy in Poland
PublicationThe article discusses the Price changes on the wholesale electricity market in Poland Moreover, The price levels on the futures electricity markets and the spot transactions market are presented. The impact of emission charges under the EU ETS on the price of electricity in the domestic market has been taken into consideration Furthermore, the basic determinants of the generation structure in Poland that influence the level of...
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Network effects—do they matter for digital technologies diffusion?
PublicationPurpose The main research target of this paper is to capture the network effects using the case of mobile cellular telephony, identified in European telecommunication markets, and its determinants enhancing the process of digital technologies diffusion. Design/methodology/approach This research relies on panel and dynamic panel regression analysis. The empirical sample covers 30 European countries, and the period for the analysis...
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An Evaluation Engine for Dynamic Ranking of Cloud Providers
PublicationThe paper focuses on creation of an effective dynamic ranking service for IaaS, PaaS and SaaS cloud providers. It considers building a quality model for this purpose along with definition of quality measure- ment procedures. The paper discusses several techniques known from already existing price comparison engines that could be modified and adopted for comparison of cloud providers. A technique for filtering measured data is proposed,...
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Adaptive prediction of stock exchange indices by state space wavelet networks
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the Warsaw Stock Exchange price index WIG20 by applying a state space wavelet network model of the index price. The approach can be applied to the development of tools for predicting changes of other economic indicators, especially stock exchange indices. The paper presents a general state space wavelet network model and the underlying principles. The model is applied to produce one session...
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ANALIZA FUNKCJONOWANIA POLSKIEGO RYNKU ENERGII ELEKTRYCZNEJ W OKRESIE WPROWADZENIA STOPNI ZASILANIA W 2015 ROKU
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono opis sytuacji, która doprowadziła do wprowadzenia wysokich stopni zasilania w KSE w sierpniu 2015 r. Omówiono przyczyny i konsekwencje wprowadzenia stopni zasilania, na podstawie analizy zapotrzebowania na moc w KSE. Przedstawiono analizę cen i obrotów na Rynku Bilansującym w tym okresie. Opisano wpływ nietypowej sytuacji na Giełdę Energii oraz na ceny na rynku „spotowym” i rynkach terminowych.
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Stock price reactions to an arrangement approval in restructuring proceedings – the case of Poland
PublicationThe study aims to empirically analyze the reaction of stock prices to the information about the conclusion and acceptance of a debtor–creditor arrangement under restructuring proceedings of companies listed on the stock exchange in Poland. The following main research hypothesis was verified: public disclosure of information about an arrangement conclusion and acceptance in restructuring proceedings...
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Optimization of combined heat and power (CHP) market allocation: The case of Poland
PublicationCombined heat and power (CHP), that is production of electricity and useful heat in a single thermodynamic process, is a way of primary energy saving and emission reduction. Therefore, promotion of the electricity from high-efficiency cogeneration (CHP-E) was encouraged in the European Union. However, CHP-E promotion mechanisms proved low effectiveness in certain countries, like Poland, where the prices of certificates of origin...
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Tax on dividend income and income from investments in equity instruments in selected European Union countries
Open Research DataThe following data contains the information about the capital gains tax in selected EU countries. Capital gain is understood as an increase in the value of capital, e.g. as a result of an increase in the prices of securities held on the stock exchange, units of funds, exchange rate differences or other assets. This profit may be specified in nominal...
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Share price and capitalization of selected banks in 2007-2012
Open Research DataThe crisis also caused the value as measured by the stock market indices of the 5 largest banks in the US to decline by as much as 18 times. The table below shows the stock exchange valuation of the 5 largest banks, taking into account the period 2007-2012. When analyzing the activities of banks through the prism of the value of their stock exchange...
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Optimisation of cooperation of hybrid renewable energy sources with hydrogen energy storage toward the lowest net present cost
PublicationThe paper presents the results of a technical and economic analysis of the power supply for a model industrial facility based on intermittent renewable energy sources in the form of wind turbines and photovoltaic modules, supplemented with hydrogen energy storage. The adopted power supply strategy assumed the maximisation of self-consumption of self-produced electricity. Six variants were considered, including two with an energy...
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WIG rate of return histogram and normal distribution curve
Open Research DataThe conducted market analysis covered the period of stock exchange quotations from the beginning of 2010 to the end of 2019 (04/01/2010 - 30/12/2019). Daily data was used, in the form of closing prices of indices operating on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. In order to obtain a complete and generalized picture of the market, the quotations of 4 indices were...
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Price convergence in the EU-an aggregate and disaggregate approach
PublicationThis article examines the price dispersion in the European Union (EU) over 15 years (1990-2005). An extensive overview of the literature offers inconclusive results with the half-lives of price shocks from 2.8 to 282 months. Until now, most of the empirical research has been either micro or macro based. In contrast, we conducted a complex analysis utilizing both aggregate and disaggregate price data. The macro approach is based...
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Diamenty w kolorach fantazyjnych–charakterystyka walorów inwestycyjnych
PublicationW artykule scharakteryzowano czynniki determinujące stopę zwrotu z inwestycji w diamenty w kolorach fantazyjnych. Cel opracowania to wskazanie kryteriów, które decydują o przypisaniu do konkretnego diamentu określonej barwy. Ponadto w pracy zbadano, jak barwa, ton oraz nasycenie wpływają na wycenę diamentów w kolorach fantazyjnych. Co więcej, za pomocą regresji hedonicznej zbadano, jak zmieniła się wartość analizowanych kamieni...
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MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION LOSSES IN THE SUPPLY SYSTEM OF ELECTRIFIED TRANSPORT
PublicationThe issue of electric energy saving in public transport is currently becoming a key area of interest, a fact connected with both an increase in society’s environmental awareness and a rise in the prices of fuel and electricity. Electricity can be saved by reducing transmission losses in the supply system. The article presents a method of measurement and analysis of transmission losses in the supply system of electrified public transport...
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Spatial Aspects of Tram and Trolleybus Supply System
PublicationNowadays the issue of electric energy saving in public transport is becoming a key area of interest which is connected both with a growth in environmental awareness of the society and an increase in the prices of fuel and electricity. It can be achieved by reducing of the transmission losses in supply system or by the improving of the usage of the regenerative breaking. The spatial differentiation of the energy supply system of...
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Average price of a book in Poland (2010-2013)
Open Research DataAlthough the Central Statistical Office does not provide detailed data on the growth rate of book prices, the overall comparison, which includes books, newspapers, magazines as well as drawing and painting articles, shows that the average annual price increase in 2011 amounted to 3.3% in this category. Moreover, as noted, the changes to the VAT Act...
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DESIGN ANALYSIS OF HYBRID GAS TURBINE - FUEL CELL POWER PLANT IN STATIONARY AND MARINE APPLICATIONS
PublicationThe paper concerns design analysis of a hybrid gas turbine power plant with a fuel cell (stack). The aim of this work was to find the most favorable variant of the medium capacity (approximately 50 MW) hybrid system. In the article, computational analysis of two variants of such a system was carried out. The analysis let to calculate capacity, efficiency of both variants and other parameters like flu gas temperature. The paper...
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SMART GRID TECHNOLOGIES IN ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY SYSTEMS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT
PublicationNowadays the issue of electric energy saving in public transport is becoming a key area of interest, which is connected both with a growth in environmental awareness of the society and an increase in the prices of fuel and electricity. It can be achieved by reducing the transmission losses in a supply system or by the improving the usage of the regenerative breaking. The article presents an analysis of applying these two options...
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SMART GRID TECHNOLOGIES IN ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY SYSTEMS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT
PublicationNowadays the issue of electric energy saving in public transport is becoming a key area of interest which is connected both with a growth in environmental awareness of the society and an increase in the prices of fuel and electricity. It can be achieved by reducing of the transmission losses in supply system or by the improving of the usage of the regenerative breaking. The article presents an analysis of applying these two options...
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Distribution of population by tenure status, 2015 (% of population)
Open Research DataFactor affecting the attractiveness of property market in terms of investment, especially of housing, is the ratio of the number of dwellings owned by the population .In 2015, more than a quarter (26.9%) of the EU population lived in their own housing with credit or mortgages, while over 42% occupied their own residential units without credit or mortgages....
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Law regulation in Poland related to biofuels
PublicationThe situation in the area of using biofuels in transport mostly the law aspects was presented and discussed. In Poland there are various legal issues with biofuel production, examination and use. These include among the others: quality inspection, production costs and market prices of biofuels, forms of public and legal service for biofuel producers or programs of biofuels promotion. In order to popularise biofuels it is significant...
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Modelling long-term technological transition of Polish power system using MARKAL: Emission trade impact
PublicationThe need for technological transition of electricity production becomes a global problem. However, in coal-dominated Polish power system this need is even more crucial than anywhere, since technical lifetime of the most domestic power plants is ending. In this paper, the impact of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for CO2 combined with sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission trading mechanism on power technology...
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Ukrainian Market of Electrical Energy: Reforming, Financing, Innovative Investment, Efficiency Analysis, and Audit
PublicationThe aim of this research is to determine the influence of electrical energy market regulation reform in Ukraine on the competitive environment, the reproduction processes of financial and innovative support, and the energy efficiency of the national economy. The authors have put forward and verified the hypothesis that, under conditions of institutional maturity of the Ukrainian electrical energy market, its liberalization and...
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The impact of the overhead line's power supply system spatial differentiation on the energy consumption of trolleybus transport: planning and economic aspects
PublicationNowadays the issue of electric energy saving in public transport is becoming a key area of interest, which is connected both with a growth in environmental awareness of the society and an increase in the prices of fuel and electricity. It can be achieved by reducing of the transmission losses in supply system or by the improving of the usage of the regenerative breaking. The spatial differentiation of the energy supply system of...
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Błażej Kochański dr
PeopleBłażej Kochański is an assistant professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at the Faculty of Management and Economics of Gdańsk University of Technology, banking risk expert. He worked for banks in Poland and Europe, as a risk specialist, planning and analysis manager, chief risk officer, supervisory board member and management consultant. He built numerous credit risk management models, successfully managed credit...
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Dot-com and AI bubbles: Can data from the past be helpful to match the price bubble euphoria phase using dynamic time warping?
PublicationThe article investigates the existence of a price bubble in the artificial intelligence market, employing the Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and dynamic time warping methodology. It proposes a method to detect the end of the price bubble euphoria phase, generating an average profit of close to 7% over 5 days and over 10.5% over 20 days, with almost 90% effectiveness. The study found that the AI market experienced...