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FORECASTING ELECTRICITY PRICES IN POLAND
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Analysis of Factors Influencing the Prices of Tourist Offers
PublicationTourism is a significant branch of many world economies. Many factors influence the volume of tourist traffic and the prices of trips. There are factors that clearly affect tourism, such as COVID-19. The paper describes the methods of machine learning and process mining that allow for assessing the impact of various factors (micro, mezzo and macro) on the prices of tourist offers. The methods were used on large sets of real data...
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Data on LEGO sets release dates and worldwide retail prices combined with aftermarket transaction prices in Poland between June 2018 and June 2023
PublicationThe dataset contains LEGO bricks sets item count and pricing history for AI-based set pricing prediction. The data spans the timeframe from June 2018 to June 2023. The data was obtained from three sources: Brickset.com (LEGO sets retail prices, release dates, and IDs), Lego.com official web page (ID number of each set that was released by Lego, its retail prices, the current status of the set) and promoklocki.pl web page (the retail...
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One Europe, one product, two prices - the price disparity in the EU
PublicationThe price dispersion in the European Union in the last fifteen years (1990-2005) is analysed. The analysis of price convergence is examined on aggregate and disaggregate levels. The macro approach is based on Comparative Price Level index calculated as the ratio between PPPs and exchange rate. The disaggregate analysis utilizesactual prices of 148 individual products sold in the 15 capital cities of the EU. The calculations comprise...
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Client’s Expectations vs Contractor’s Pricing. Fair Prices or Bid Rigging
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Can Web Search Queries Predict Prices Change on the Real Estate Market?
PublicationThis study aims to explore whether the intensity of internet searches, according to the Google Trends search volume index (SVI), is a predictor of changes in real estate prices. The motivation of this study is the possibility to extend the understanding of the extra predictive power of Google search engine query volume of future housing price change (shift direction) by (i) the introduction of a research approach that combines...
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3D Modeling of Discontinuity in the Spatial Distribution of Apartment Prices Using Voronoi Diagrams
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20+ years of Polish residential real estate prices – a house price index proxy
PublicationInformation on house prices is often considered crucial when assessing developments in economy. However, in Poland for the long time house prices haven’t been tracked in an organized manner. Recent developments, most notably house price indices developed by Poland’s national bank and by the statistical office do not go back more than 10 years, therefore data series are relatively short compared to those of other macroeconomic data. In...
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Exploring Cause-and-Effect Relationships Between Public Company Press Releases and Their Stock Prices
PublicationThe aim of the work is to design and implement a method of exploring the cause-and-effect relationships between company announcements and the stock prices on NASDAQ stock exchange, followed by a brief discussion. For this purpose, it was necessary to download the stock quotes of selected companies from the NASDAQ market from public web sources. Additionally, media messages related to selected companies had to be downloaded, and...
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Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case
PublicationThe study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank's base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in...
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Predicting the Purchase of Electricity Prices for Renewable Energy Sources Based on Polish Power Grids Data Using Deep Learning Models for Controlling Small Hybrid PV Microinstallations
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Modelling of residential sales price with kriging using different distance metrics in different correlation functions
PublicationThe modelling and estimation of sales prices based on economical conditions are important for housing sector especially in developing countries. Analysts are focused on the subject to analyze price movements and estimate the future trend of the sales prices for housing sector. In this study, we tried to generate a robust and efficient model related to the subject. Firstly, we investigated economic variables affecting housing sales...
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Household Ability of Expenditures on Electricity and Energy Resources in the Countries That Joined the EU after 2004
PublicationThe purpose of the following article is to present the situation of the energy market from a household perspective between 2010 and 2020 in selected EU countries (the group of member states which joined EU after 2004). The selected countries when joining the EU had similar economic indicators and to some extent were similar in other macro-economic situations (personal income, unemployment rate, GDP level and annual growth). This...
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Price Changes in Wholesale Market of Electrical Energy in Poland
PublicationThe article discusses the Price changes on the wholesale electricity market in Poland Moreover, The price levels on the futures electricity markets and the spot transactions market are presented. The impact of emission charges under the EU ETS on the price of electricity in the domestic market has been taken into consideration Furthermore, the basic determinants of the generation structure in Poland that influence the level of...
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Network effects—do they matter for digital technologies diffusion?
PublicationPurpose The main research target of this paper is to capture the network effects using the case of mobile cellular telephony, identified in European telecommunication markets, and its determinants enhancing the process of digital technologies diffusion. Design/methodology/approach This research relies on panel and dynamic panel regression analysis. The empirical sample covers 30 European countries, and the period for the analysis...
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An Evaluation Engine for Dynamic Ranking of Cloud Providers
PublicationThe paper focuses on creation of an effective dynamic ranking service for IaaS, PaaS and SaaS cloud providers. It considers building a quality model for this purpose along with definition of quality measure- ment procedures. The paper discusses several techniques known from already existing price comparison engines that could be modified and adopted for comparison of cloud providers. A technique for filtering measured data is proposed,...
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Adaptive prediction of stock exchange indices by state space wavelet networks
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the Warsaw Stock Exchange price index WIG20 by applying a state space wavelet network model of the index price. The approach can be applied to the development of tools for predicting changes of other economic indicators, especially stock exchange indices. The paper presents a general state space wavelet network model and the underlying principles. The model is applied to produce one session...
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ANALIZA FUNKCJONOWANIA POLSKIEGO RYNKU ENERGII ELEKTRYCZNEJ W OKRESIE WPROWADZENIA STOPNI ZASILANIA W 2015 ROKU
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono opis sytuacji, która doprowadziła do wprowadzenia wysokich stopni zasilania w KSE w sierpniu 2015 r. Omówiono przyczyny i konsekwencje wprowadzenia stopni zasilania, na podstawie analizy zapotrzebowania na moc w KSE. Przedstawiono analizę cen i obrotów na Rynku Bilansującym w tym okresie. Opisano wpływ nietypowej sytuacji na Giełdę Energii oraz na ceny na rynku „spotowym” i rynkach terminowych.
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Stock price reactions to an arrangement approval in restructuring proceedings – the case of Poland
PublicationThe study aims to empirically analyze the reaction of stock prices to the information about the conclusion and acceptance of a debtor–creditor arrangement under restructuring proceedings of companies listed on the stock exchange in Poland. The following main research hypothesis was verified: public disclosure of information about an arrangement conclusion and acceptance in restructuring proceedings...
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Optimization of combined heat and power (CHP) market allocation: The case of Poland
PublicationCombined heat and power (CHP), that is production of electricity and useful heat in a single thermodynamic process, is a way of primary energy saving and emission reduction. Therefore, promotion of the electricity from high-efficiency cogeneration (CHP-E) was encouraged in the European Union. However, CHP-E promotion mechanisms proved low effectiveness in certain countries, like Poland, where the prices of certificates of origin...
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Optimisation of cooperation of hybrid renewable energy sources with hydrogen energy storage toward the lowest net present cost
PublicationThe paper presents the results of a technical and economic analysis of the power supply for a model industrial facility based on intermittent renewable energy sources in the form of wind turbines and photovoltaic modules, supplemented with hydrogen energy storage. The adopted power supply strategy assumed the maximisation of self-consumption of self-produced electricity. Six variants were considered, including two with an energy...
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Price convergence in the EU-an aggregate and disaggregate approach
PublicationThis article examines the price dispersion in the European Union (EU) over 15 years (1990-2005). An extensive overview of the literature offers inconclusive results with the half-lives of price shocks from 2.8 to 282 months. Until now, most of the empirical research has been either micro or macro based. In contrast, we conducted a complex analysis utilizing both aggregate and disaggregate price data. The macro approach is based...
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Diamenty w kolorach fantazyjnych–charakterystyka walorów inwestycyjnych
PublicationW artykule scharakteryzowano czynniki determinujące stopę zwrotu z inwestycji w diamenty w kolorach fantazyjnych. Cel opracowania to wskazanie kryteriów, które decydują o przypisaniu do konkretnego diamentu określonej barwy. Ponadto w pracy zbadano, jak barwa, ton oraz nasycenie wpływają na wycenę diamentów w kolorach fantazyjnych. Co więcej, za pomocą regresji hedonicznej zbadano, jak zmieniła się wartość analizowanych kamieni...
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MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION LOSSES IN THE SUPPLY SYSTEM OF ELECTRIFIED TRANSPORT
PublicationThe issue of electric energy saving in public transport is currently becoming a key area of interest, a fact connected with both an increase in society’s environmental awareness and a rise in the prices of fuel and electricity. Electricity can be saved by reducing transmission losses in the supply system. The article presents a method of measurement and analysis of transmission losses in the supply system of electrified public transport...
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Spatial Aspects of Tram and Trolleybus Supply System
PublicationNowadays the issue of electric energy saving in public transport is becoming a key area of interest which is connected both with a growth in environmental awareness of the society and an increase in the prices of fuel and electricity. It can be achieved by reducing of the transmission losses in supply system or by the improving of the usage of the regenerative breaking. The spatial differentiation of the energy supply system of...
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DESIGN ANALYSIS OF HYBRID GAS TURBINE - FUEL CELL POWER PLANT IN STATIONARY AND MARINE APPLICATIONS
PublicationThe paper concerns design analysis of a hybrid gas turbine power plant with a fuel cell (stack). The aim of this work was to find the most favorable variant of the medium capacity (approximately 50 MW) hybrid system. In the article, computational analysis of two variants of such a system was carried out. The analysis let to calculate capacity, efficiency of both variants and other parameters like flu gas temperature. The paper...
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SMART GRID TECHNOLOGIES IN ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY SYSTEMS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT
PublicationNowadays the issue of electric energy saving in public transport is becoming a key area of interest, which is connected both with a growth in environmental awareness of the society and an increase in the prices of fuel and electricity. It can be achieved by reducing the transmission losses in a supply system or by the improving the usage of the regenerative breaking. The article presents an analysis of applying these two options...
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SMART GRID TECHNOLOGIES IN ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY SYSTEMS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT
PublicationNowadays the issue of electric energy saving in public transport is becoming a key area of interest which is connected both with a growth in environmental awareness of the society and an increase in the prices of fuel and electricity. It can be achieved by reducing of the transmission losses in supply system or by the improving of the usage of the regenerative breaking. The article presents an analysis of applying these two options...
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Law regulation in Poland related to biofuels
PublicationThe situation in the area of using biofuels in transport mostly the law aspects was presented and discussed. In Poland there are various legal issues with biofuel production, examination and use. These include among the others: quality inspection, production costs and market prices of biofuels, forms of public and legal service for biofuel producers or programs of biofuels promotion. In order to popularise biofuels it is significant...
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Modelling long-term technological transition of Polish power system using MARKAL: Emission trade impact
PublicationThe need for technological transition of electricity production becomes a global problem. However, in coal-dominated Polish power system this need is even more crucial than anywhere, since technical lifetime of the most domestic power plants is ending. In this paper, the impact of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for CO2 combined with sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission trading mechanism on power technology...
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Ukrainian Market of Electrical Energy: Reforming, Financing, Innovative Investment, Efficiency Analysis, and Audit
PublicationThe aim of this research is to determine the influence of electrical energy market regulation reform in Ukraine on the competitive environment, the reproduction processes of financial and innovative support, and the energy efficiency of the national economy. The authors have put forward and verified the hypothesis that, under conditions of institutional maturity of the Ukrainian electrical energy market, its liberalization and...
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The impact of the overhead line's power supply system spatial differentiation on the energy consumption of trolleybus transport: planning and economic aspects
PublicationNowadays the issue of electric energy saving in public transport is becoming a key area of interest, which is connected both with a growth in environmental awareness of the society and an increase in the prices of fuel and electricity. It can be achieved by reducing of the transmission losses in supply system or by the improving of the usage of the regenerative breaking. The spatial differentiation of the energy supply system of...
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Dot-com and AI bubbles: Can data from the past be helpful to match the price bubble euphoria phase using dynamic time warping?
PublicationThe article investigates the existence of a price bubble in the artificial intelligence market, employing the Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and dynamic time warping methodology. It proposes a method to detect the end of the price bubble euphoria phase, generating an average profit of close to 7% over 5 days and over 10.5% over 20 days, with almost 90% effectiveness. The study found that the AI market experienced...
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Analysis of different tillage implements with respect to reduced fuel consumption, tractor operating speed and its wheel slippage
PublicationNowadays the prices of agricultural farm produced products are increasing with ant-speed and the prices of input for raising crops are increasing with rocket-speed. Therefore, there is a dire need to conduct some important studies to innovate the techniques which can lower the costs of crop production. In this context, this study was conducted to evaluate the consumption of fuel at different tillage implements, tractor operating...
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Financial Consequences of the Introduction of the Fit For 55 on the Example of Poland
PublicationIn Europe and in Poland, there is a growing conviction that climate action is a necessity. When creating long-term strategies or making current decisions, companies are increasingly taking into account issues related to sustainable development and reducing CO2 emissions. Following the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries around the world pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 so that the average temperature...
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Znaczenie monopolizacji w postkeynesowskich teoriach cenotwórstwa
PublicationArtykuł jest teoretyczną podstawą empirycznych analiz cen prowadzonych zgodnie z ekonomią postkeynesowską. Postkeynesiści, ze względu na krytyczny realizm jako metodologiczną podstawę ekonomii postkeynesowskiej, wyróżniają trzy teorie ustalania ceny przez przedsiębiorstwa – ceny administrowane (administered proces), cenotwórstwo oparte na kosztach normalnych (normal cost prices) i cenotwórstwo oparte na narzucie (mark up prices)....
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Price convergence in the European Union and in the new member states
PublicationThis paper examines price dispersion in the European Union (EU15) and in three New Member States (Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic) between 1995 and 2006. The analysis utilizes both disaggregate and aggregate price data, including the prices of 157 products and two indices constructed using two different weighting procedures. For each category of goods the price dispersion is lower in EU15 than EU15 plus 3 NMS. Sigma convergence...
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Does one currency mean one price?
PublicationEuropean Monetary Union was expected to have many consequences for the economies of participant countries. Theory suggested that through a higher volume of trade and stronger competition in the Eurozone, a single currency would lead to a reduction in price dispersion. As far as prices are concerned, two effects were expected: an immediate effect due to the technical characteristics of the changeover process, and a long-term one...
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Renewable natural resources as green alternative substrates to obtain bio-based non-isocyanate polyurethanes-review
PublicationCommercially available polyurethanes are synthesized by the polyaddition of diisocyanates with polyols and low molecular weight chain extenders. A new approach to polyurethanes synthesis is realized via non-isocyanate routes. Negative impacts of petroleum-based chemicals on the environment and human health as well as gradual reduction of fuel-based resources, which leads to an increase in their prices, are an incentive to looking...
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The “autumn effect” in the gold market—does it contradict the Adaptive Market Hypothesis?
PublicationThe present study aims to verify the autumn effect in the gold market, first presented 10 years ago by Dirk Baur in the paper “The autumn effect of gold” and to investigate the calendar effects occurring for other precious metals. This empirical research is presented in a way to place the results obtained in the context of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and the more current Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). The study was...
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AC-DC-DC Converter for Small Power Energy Storage Systems
PublicationThe energy transformation driven by the development of renewable energy sources has become a reality for all power grid users. Prosumer energy, primarily utilizing photovoltaic installations, is one of the fastest-growing market segments. The advancement of technology, a decrease in electrochemical energy storage prices, and changes in the legal framework governing energy billing for grid-fed power have led to a growing interest...
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Katalizatory wykorzystywane w syntezie biodiesla
PublicationRising prices of electricity, conventional fuels and heating require decisive steps in the further development of technologies based on renewable energy sources. These include geothermal-; hydrothermal-; aerothermal-; and solar energy. Due to the fact that the petrochemical industry is one of the fastest growing branches of the economy, we would like to expand on the topic related to biofuels. Biodiesel is an alternative fuel similar...
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SMART GRID TECHNOLOGIES IN ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY SYSTEMS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT
PublicationNowadays the issue of electric energy saving in public transport is becoming a key area of interest which is connected both with a growth in environmental awareness of the society and an increase in the prices of fuel and electricity. It can be achieved by improving the usage of regenerative breaking. In 2016 the Przedsiębiorstwo Komunikacji Trolejbusowej (PKT, Trolleybus Transport Company) in Gdynia began practical implementation...
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Short-term Price Reaction to Involuntary Bankruptcies Filed in Bad Faith: Empirical Evidence from Poland
PublicationPurpose: Assessing the reaction of the prices of shares of companies listed in the Warsaw Stock Exchange to the public disclosure of information about the filing a bankruptcy petition in bad faith by creditors. Design/Methodology/Approach: Event study analysis. Findings: It can therefore be assumed that the filing of an unfounded bankruptcy petition does not, in the short term, have a statistically significant negative impact on...
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Enviromental factors az the elements determingthe development of floating homes
PublicationThe popularity of Floating Homes in Western Europe and North America is noticeable. The interest in thesefacilities in Poland is also constantly growing. The popularity of Floating Homes is due to climate change, risingland prices and population density in city centers. However, environmental factors play a significant role in theirdevelopment. The publication presents the results of research on the impact of environmental factors...
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Convergence or divergence in the European Union
PublicationThe disparities in economic prosperity revealed both from inter-country and inter-region perspective are one of the main problem in the modern economy. They consist of the dispersion in the real values such as incomes, GDP or productivity, but also nominal values such as prices and costs. The European Union is aware of this problem hence the role of the regional and structural policy aiming enhancing the cohesion between member...
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Smartphone application supporting independent movement of the blind
PublicationImproving comfort of life of blind people is a problem of great importance. Neither a white canenor a guide dog, although both very useful, can be considered as a tool for achieving fullindependence in everyday movement around the city. On the market there are some navigation toolsinspired by car navigation systems, but they have many flaws, ranging from positioninginaccuracies to high prices. The authors present their own solution...
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Modeling process of planning finished product sales volumes at industrial enterprises in modern economic conditions
PublicationThis article presents improving the existing system of planning finished products sales volumes. The influencing factors of the sales volumes in modern economic conditions have been determined: falling world oil prices, the reduction of pipe consumption in the domestic market, the global pandemic. The algorithm of planning finished products sales volumes has been constructed. Calculations based on the Holt forecasting method has...
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Modelling of the Polish Electricity Generation Subsystem in MARKAL Program with Emphasis on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme
PublicationThis paper addresses issues related to greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union and measures to reduce them, in particular the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). A model of the Polish electricity generation subsystem, taking into account EU ETS mechanisms, has been developed using the MARKAL optimization package. Data collected on the basis of available projects, regulations and statistics were entered into the model....
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Economics of credit scoring management
PublicationCredit scoring models constitute an inevitable element of modern risk and profitability management in retail financial lending institutions. Quality,or separation power of a credit scoring model is usually assessed with the Gini coefficient. Generally, the higher Gini coefficient the better, as in this way a bank can increase number of good customers and/or reject more bad applicants. In...