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Search results for: weather forecasts
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GIS Solution for Weather Forecast Data Analysis
PublicationIn this paper authors present the GIS system for the analysis of the numerical weather prediction data. This kind of data has multidimensional character (three dimensions and time) and its analysis should consider all the available factors. Proposed GIS system consists of RASDAMAN application with implemented OLAP cube mechanism, which enables the user to process data in the spatial-time domain. It also simplifies the meteorological...
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Prediction of consumer electricity needs based on Internet weather forecasts
PublicationElectrical energy is considered both as an important driver for producing and transporting goods in companies, as well as a good in itself which requires planning and management for generating and delivering it to consumers in proper time and amounts. Weather information can be considered to convey part of the data on energy delivery needs of consumers. Free meteorological data sources on the Web do not offer consistent data to...
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublicationWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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Forecasts of the managed futures market – an empirical analysis
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Equilibrium price - modelling, forecast and application
PublicationNowoczesną gospodarkę charakteryzuje wzrastające znaczenie cen. Znajomość ogólnych zasad mechanizmu kształtującego ceny oraz analizy cen umożliwiają przedsiębiorstwom przewidzenie ceny równowagi i podjęcie przynoszącej zyski decyzji, zwłaszcza na rynku oligopolu homogenicznego, gdzie przedsiębiorcy muszą brać pod uwagę reakcję konkurencji. Przedstawiony w artykule, dynamiczny model ekonometryczny cen benzyny, na rynku paliw płynnych...
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Effect of Forecast Climate Changes on Water Needs of Giant Miscanthus Cultivated in the Kuyavia Region in Poland
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The point forecast of the situation of the examined company on the market
PublicationOkreślono sytuację badanego przedsiębiorstwa na rynku za pomocą analizy portfolio, w aspektach wzrostu rynku oraz względnego udziału badanego przedsiębiorstwa w rynku. Analiza objęła zarówno okres retrospektywny jak i prognozowany.
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Reliability of quality forecast for hybrid metal-working machinery
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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Outlier Detection with the Use of Isolation Forests
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Effect of Active Mining Impact On Properties with Engineering Structures – Forecast and Final Result Discrepancies
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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic
PublicationProducing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation...
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COVID-19 severity forecast based on machine learning and complete blood count data
PublicationProper triage of COVID-19 patients is a key factor in eective case management, especially with limited and insucient resources. In this paper, we propose a machine-aided diagnostic system to predict how badly a patient with COVID-19 will develop disease. The prognosis of this type is based on the parameters of commonly used complete blood count tests, which makes it possible to obtain data from a wide range of patients.We chose...
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COVID-19 severity forecast based on machine learning and complete blood count data
PublicationProper triage of COVID-19 patients is a key factor in eective case management, especially with limited and insucient resources. In this paper, we propose a machine-aided diagnostic system to predict how badly a patient with COVID-19 will develop disease. The prognosis of this type is based on the parameters of commonly used complete blood count tests, which makes it possible to obtain data from a wide range of patients.We chose...
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Accurate modeling of layout parasitic to forecast EMI emitted from a DC-DC converter.
PublicationThis paper illustrates how to account for all parasitic due to the layout of a power converter (inductive and capacitive), in order to forecast electromagnetic interferences (EMI). The method is generic, and is validated here in the simple example of a DC-DC converter, realized on different technologies: insulated metal substrate (IMS), printed circuit board (PCB). In addition, several layouts aspects will be investigated. Conclusions...
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Chemical Composition of Atmospheric Air in Nemoral Scots Pine Forests and Submountainous Beech Forests: The Potential Region for the Introduction of Forest Therapy
PublicationStudies show that forests are one of the main recreational destinations. This can be explained by their beneficial effects on the health of their visitors, which can be attributed to compounds from the terpene group. The aim of this research was to determine the chemical composition of air in the interiors of Nemoral Scots pine forests and submountainous beech forests, with the determination of compounds of the terpene group. Samples...
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Short clinically-based prediction model to forecast transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk state
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Impact of Investments and R&D Costs in Renewable Energy Technologies on Companies’ Profitability Indicators: Assessment and Forecast
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Application of MARKAL model to optimisation of electricity generation structure in Poland in the long-term time horizon. Part II. Model and forecasts assumptions
PublicationIn this paper, the next in a series of publications on the subject, assumptions are presented of a power system development model in terms of electricity generation technology infrastructure in Poland, in the long term perspective until 2060. The model is based on the mathematical structure of the MARKAL optimization package. Among other things developed are a forecast of the final demand for electricity and heat, the current...
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublicationDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Impact of forecasted changes in Polish economy (2015 and 2020) on nutrient emission into the river basins
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Forecasted climate changes and their influence on cities and regions in 2050 in terms of extreme hydrological events
PublicationGlobal climate change is a problem which arises numerous theories and uncertainties, especially in terms of speculated human impact. Independent from the fact, what is the main driver for the changes, some of the climate shifts are visible already nowadays. Both contemporary and future cities will have to face such problems. Although climate change may cause numerous effects on different fields, a special stress in this article...
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THE EFFECT OF LOG SORTING STRATEGY ON THE FORECASTED LUMBER VALUE AFTER SAWING PINE WOOD
PublicationThe optimal transformation path for the resource is determined by the quality of a log combined with its dimension. The commercial value of derived products is also closely connected with the size and extent of containing wood deficiencies. The results of studies with three diverse strategies for log sorting are presented in the paper. Resource assessment by a worker without extensive experience in sorting logs, the certified grading...
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Habitat displacement effect between two competing owl species in fragmented forests
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A Dynamic Forecast Demand Scenario Analysis to Design an Automated Parcel Lockers Network in Pamplona (Spain) Using a Simulation-Optimization Model
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Weather Hazard Avoidance in Modeling Safety of Motor-Driven Ship for Multicriteria Weather Routing
PublicationWeather routing methods find the most suitable ocean?s route for a vessel, taking into account changeable weather conditions and navigational constraints. In the multicriteria approach based on the evolutionary SPEA algorithm one is able to consider a few constrained criteria simultaneously. The approach applied for a ship with hybrid propulsions has already been presented by one of the authors on previous TransNav?2009. This time...
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublicationThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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Hazel Grouse occurrence in fragmented forests: habitat quantity and configuration is more important than quality
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Tree rings as an indicator of atmospheric pollutant deposition to subalpine spruce forests in the Sudetes (Southern Poland)
PublicationIn spite of their moderate altitude (1000–1600m a.s.l.), the Western SudetyMountains belong to areas with the most efficient fog precipitation in Europe. Intense industrial activity in the area of windward western foothills caused an exceptional intensification of atmospheric pollutant deposition via precipitation and fog to take place since the 1950s. In the second half of the 1970s a massive spruce forest dieback began affecting...
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublicationPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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Investigating impacts of asphalt mixture properties on pavement performance using LTPP data through random forests
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Grzyby wielkoowocnikowe (macromycetes) Doliny Zielonej (Lasy Oliwskie) = The report of macromycetes in Zielona Valley (Oliwskie Forests)
PublicationW artykule wyszczególniono 203 gatunki grzybów wielkoowocnikowych (macromycetes) stwierdzonych w Dolinie Zielonej, położonej w Lasach Oliwskich, z podziałem na klasy I rzędy. Zaznaczono te taksony, które znajdują się pod ochroną oraz na "czerwonej liście makrogrzybów". Opisano krótko kilka interesujących taksonów - podano ich miejsce występowania. Zamieszczono krótki opis budowy geomorfologicznej Doliny Zielonej, wymieniono gatunki...
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Weather Routing System Architecture Using Onboard Data Collection and Route Optimisation
PublicationThis paper describes the architecture of a weather routing system consisting of two key elements: onboard monitoring and route optimiser sub-systems. The former is responsible for collecting various onboard measurements, such as current ship position or ship motion variables. These data, when gathered and processed, are then used for fine-tuning a ship model. The model, together with weather forecasts, is utilised by a multi-objective...
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Method for Determination of Methyl tert-Butyl Ether and Its Degradation Products in Water
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Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm in Practice
PublicationThe Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA) has already been introduced by the author on earlier TransNav 2009 and 2011 conferences with a focus on theoretical application to a hybrid-propulsion or motor-driven ship. This paper addresses the topic of possible practical weather routing applications of MEWRA. In the paper some practical advantages of utilizing Pareto front as a result of multicriteria optimization...
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Impact of adverse winter weather on traffic flow
PublicationThe paper aims to analyse the impact of adverse weather in winter on traffic flow using data from a dual carriageway section of an express road located in Gdansk. For the purposes of the analysis, traffic and meteorological data were collected for a period of 15 months in 2014-2015 and aggregated to 5 minutes intervals. The impact of winter weather conditions on traffic flow was assessed by comparing aggregated traffic stream parameters...
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Multi-objective weather routing of sailing vessels
PublicationThe paper presents a multi-objective deterministic method of weather routing for sailing vessels. Depending on a particular purpose of sailboat weather routing, the presented method makes it possible to customize the criteria and constraints so as to fit a particular user’s needs. Apart from a typical shortest time criterion, safety and comfort can also be taken into account. Additionally, the method supports dynamic weather data:...
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Collision Risk-Informed Weather Routing for Sailboats
PublicationSelected COLREG rules, good seamanship and sheer common sense indicate that it is in a sailboat's interest to follow collision-free routes without relying on large power-driven ships to give way. Until now, however, no method has integrated a sailboat's weather routing with collision risk monitoring and collision avoidance. Therefore, a new deterministic approach to combine the above features within one method is introduced here....
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Towards Improving Optimised Ship Weather Routing
PublicationThe aim of the paper is to outline a project focusing on the development of a new type of ship weather routing solution with improved uncertainty handling, through better estimation of ship performance and responses to sea conditions. Ensemble forecasting is considered to take into account the uncertainty levels that are typical of operations in a stochastic environment. Increased accuracy of weather prediction is achieved through...
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EVOLUTIONARY MULTI–OBJECTIVE WEATHER ROUTING OF SAILBOATS
PublicationThe paper presents a multi-objective method, which optimises the route of a sailboat. The presented method makes use of an evolutionary multi-objective (EMO) algorithm, which performs the optimisation according to three objective functions: total passage time, a sum of all course alterations made during the voyage and the average angle of heel. The last two of the objective functions reflect the navigator’s and passenger’s comfort,...
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The Impact of Weather on Traffic Speed in Urban Area
PublicationThe issue of the impact of weather conditions on trip speed of vehicles has been studied for a long time and it is still the subject of many scientific researches. The impact of atmospheric conditions on the speed with which drivers drive their vehicles seems to be obvious. Good weather conditions, sunny weather with good visibility surely provokes higher speed while rainfall, wind...
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The forecasted values of cutting power for sawing on band sawing machines for Polish Scots pine wood (Pinus sylvestris L.) in a function of its provenance.
PublicationIn this paper the predicted values of cutting power for band sawing machine (EB 1800, f. EWD), which is used in the Polish sawmills, were showed. The values of cutting power were forecasted for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) wood of five provenances from Poland. These values were determined using an innovative method of predicting the cutting power, which takes into account of elements of fracture mechanics. The resulting predictions...
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Design of Weather Disruption-Tolerant Wireless Mesh Networks
PublicationZ uwagi na wysoki koszt realizacji sieci teleinformatycznych wykorzystujących przewodową transmisję światłowodową, bezprzewodowe sieci kratowe (WMN) oferujące transmisję rzędu 1-10 Gb/s (przy wykorzystaniu pasma millimeter-wave - 71-86 GHz), wydają się być obiecującą alternatywą dla przewodowych sieci MAN. Jednakże z uwagi na właściwości transmisji bezprzewodowej w oparciu o łącza wysokiej częstotliwości, łącza te są bardzo wrażliwe...
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Enhancing Resilience of FSO Networks to Adverse Weather Conditions
PublicationOptical wireless networks realized by means of gigabit optical wireless communication (OWC) systems are becoming, in a variety of applications, an important alternative, or a complementary solution, to their fiber-based counterparts. However, performance of the OWC systems can be considerably degraded in periods of unfavorable weather conditions, such as heavy fog, which temporarily reduce the effective capacity of the network....
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Multi-objective Weather Routing with Customised Criteria and Constraints
PublicationThe paper presents a weather routing algorithm utilising a multi-objective optimisation with constraints, namely the Multi-objective Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA). In the proposed approach weather route recommendations can be made simultaneously e.g. for passage time, fuel consumption and safety of passage by means of Pareto optimisation. The sets of criteria and constraints in the optimisation process are fully...
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Optimization of Wireless Networks for Resilience to Adverse Weather Conditions
PublicationIn this chapter, we consider how adverse weather conditions such as rain or fog affect the performance of wireless networks, and how to optimize these networks so as to make them robust to these conditions. We first show how to analyze the weather conditions in order to make them useful for network optimization modelling. Using an example realistic network, we show how to optimize two types of wireless networks: free-space optical...