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Search results for: DISCHARGE FORECASTING
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublicationDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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Forecasting
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WEATHER AND FORECASTING
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JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
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TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
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FORECASTING ELECTRICITY PRICES IN POLAND
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FORECASTING BIOGAS FORMATION IN LANDFILLS
Publication: The aim of the present research was to develop a mathematical model for estimating the amount of viscous gas generated as a function of weather conditions. Due to the lack of models for predicting gas formation caused by sudden changes in weather conditions in the literature, such a model was developed in this study using the parameters of landfills recorded for over a year. The effect of temperature on landfill gas production...
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
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Forecasting risks and challenges of digital innovations
PublicationForecasting and assessment of societal risks related to digital innovation systems and services is an urgent problem, because these solutions usually contain artificial intelligence algorithms which learn using data from the environment and modify their behaviour much beyond human control. Digital innovation solutions are increasingly deployed in transport, business and administrative domains, and therefore, if abused by a malicious...
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Dielectric Barrier Discharge Systems with HV Generators and Discharge Chambers for Surface Treatment and Decontamination of Organic Products
PublicationThe article presents applications of systems with power electronic converters, high voltage transformers, and discharge chambers used for nonthermal, dielectric barrier discharge plasma treatment of a plastic surface and decontamination of organic loose products. In these installations, the inductance of the high voltage transformers and the capacitances of the electrode sets form resonant circuits that are excited by inverters....
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Forecasting of the Employment Rate in the EU ICT Field
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Forecasting of fatigue life of laser welded joints
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono podstawowe dane na temat stalowych paneli typu sandwich. Zaprezentowano wyniki testów zmęczeniowych elementarnych połączeń teowych spawanych laserowo. Omówiono szczegółowo te cechy, które mają istotny wpływ na statyczne i zmęczeniowe własności złącza. Na podstawie przedstawionych wyników badań zmęczeniowych elementarnych połączeń spawanych laserowo uzyskano krzywą projektową S-N dla jednego z pokazanych modeli...
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Increasing rail life by forecasting fatigue failure.
PublicationReferat poświęcony jest przedłużaniu żywotności szyn i obejmuje zagadnienia prognozowania liczby pęknięć a także planowania szlifowań szyn. Dane pomiarowe pochodzą z wieloletnich badań przeprowadzonych w Katedrze Inżynierii Kolejowej Politechniki Gdańskiej na liniach magistralnych PKP.
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The investment risk forecasting in a local energy market
PublicationThe paper considers the general problems faced when evaluating the risk of investing in a local energy market by computer tools. The proposal formulated for the emerging local energy markets suggests broadening the method of evaluating investment risk so as to include elements of cluster analysis. The paper also discusses the significance of estimating investment risk in market terms and the importance and range of the local energy...
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A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios
PublicationThis paper is devoted to the issue of forecasting financial ratios. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology, i.e., fuzzy logic theory, and to evaluate its effectiveness. Fuzzy logic has been widely used in machinery, robotics and industrial engineering. This paper introduces the use of fuzzy logic for the financial analysis of enterprises. While many current...
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RESEARCH OF PARTIAL DISCHARGE IN THE LABORATORY CONSTRUCTE
PublicationNowadays in the Czech Republic begins implementation of new types of leadership system with insulated conductors nowadays. This system is used because of the use of conductors in difficulties to reach terrains and lower failure rate. The finding of specific faults is problem, because today's digital protection are not able to find it.
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Application of Bayesian Networks for Forecasting Future Model of Farm
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Application of dynamic factor models for inflation forecasting in Poland
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Estimating and Forecasting GDP in Poland with Dynamic Factor Model
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Effective Short -term Forecasting of Wind Farms Power
PublicationForecasting a specific wind farm's generation capacity within a 24 hour perpective requires both a reliable forecast of wind, as well as supporting tools. This tool is a dedicated model of wind farm power. This model should include not only general rules of wind to mechanical energy conversion, but also the farm's specific features. This paper present analytical, statistical, and neuron models of wind farm power. The study is based...
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Reconstruction of 3D image of corona discharge streamer
PublicationIn this paper, the method of reconstruction of the 3D structure of streamers in DC positive corona discharge in nozzle-to-plate electrode configuration is presented. For reconstructing of 3D image of corona discharge streamer we propose a stereographical method, where streamers are observed from several directions simultaneously. The multi-directional observation enabled to obtain fine positional coordinates of streamers for a...
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Surface Dielectric Barrier Discharge Plasma Actuators
PublicationThis paper presents a part of the works conducted in the Plasmaero European project (task 1.1) on surface dielectric barrier discharge actuators applied to airflow control. The study is divided into several parts. In the first part, the goal is to enhance the electric wind produced by a typical single DBD actuator by optimization of the active electrode shape. For instance, the use of a thin wire instead of a plate air-exposed...
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Activation of the Normal Human Skin Cells by a Portable Dielectric Barrier Discharge-Based Reaction-Discharge System of a Defined Gas Temperature
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Forecasting demand for products in distribution networks using R software
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Forecasting of currency exchange rates using artificial neural networks
PublicationW rozdziale tym autor przedstawił wyniki swoich badań nad wykorzystaniem sztucznych sieci neuronowych do prognozowania kursu walut (na przykładzie pary walutowej PLN-USD).Głównym celem badań było porównanie skuteczności przewidywania kursu złotówki w latach 1997 - 2005 przy pomocy różnych rodzajów sieci neuronowych.
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An innovative approach to the forecasting of energetic effects while wood sawing
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, the cutting forces (power) problem may be tackled with an innovative, up-to-date fundamental analysis of the mechanics of sawing based on modern fracture...
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An Innovative Approach to the Forecasting of Energetic Effects While Wood Sawing
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specifi c cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, the cutting forces (power) problem may be tackled with an innovative, up-to-date fundamental analysis of the mechanics of sawing based on modern fracture mechanics....
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The original method of cutting power forecasting while wood sawing
PublicationEfekty energetyczne procesu przecinania drewna piłami (siły skrawania i moc skrawania) przy klasycznym podejściu do zagadnienia są określane na podstawie wartości właściwego powierzchniowego oporu skrawania. Z drugiej strony siły skrawania można rozważać z punktu widzenia współczesnej mechaniki pękania. Prognozowanie wartości kąta ścinania z zastosowaniem modeli uwzględniających wiązkość materiału obrabianego, ścinanie w płaszczyźnie...
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A MODEL FOR FORECASTING PM10 LEVELS WITH THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PublicationThis work presents a method of forecasting the level of PM10 with the use of artificial neural networks. Current level of particulate matter and meteorological data was taken into account in the construction of the model (checked the correlation of each variable and the future level of PM10), and unidirectional networks were used to implement it due to their ease of learning. Then, the configuration of the network (built on the...
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Upper Limb Bionic Orthoses: General Overview and Forecasting Changes
PublicationUsing robotics in modern medicine is slowly becoming a common practice. However, there are still important life science fields which are currently devoid of such advanced technology. A noteworthy example of a life sciences field which would benefit from process automation and advanced robotic technology is rehabilitation of the upper limb with the use of an orthosis. Here, we present the state-of-the-art and prospects for development...
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The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting
PublicationThe article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive...
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Reactive deposition of TiNx layers in a DC-magnetron discharge
PublicationTiNx layers have been deposited in 'balanced mode' and 'unbalanced mode' of a reactive DC-magnetron plasma (carrier gas argon, reactive gas nitrogen) under different conditions. Discharge power and reactive gas flow have been varied. The layers have been examined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), X-ray reflectometry (XR), and spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE). The results of the layer analyses were combined with plasma investigations...
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Analysis of the impact of wastewater discharge on recipients: synergistic approach
PublicationThe dissertation presents the analysis of chemical and microbial composition of wastewater and examines the impact of wastewater discharge on the environment. Various case studies were analysed: from small settlements in a pristine European Arctic, to large municipal wastewater treatment plants in areas subjected to greater anthropogenic pressure. In order to comprehensively analyse the impact of wastewater discharge on the receiving...
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Hydrological Forecasting in the Oder Estuary using a Three- Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model
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The influence of electromagnetic pollution on living organisms – historical trends and forecasting changes
PublicationCurrent technologies have become a source of omnipresent electromagnetic pollution from generated electromagnetic fields and resulting electromagnetic radiation. In many cases this pollution is much stronger than any natural sources of electromagnetic fields or radiation. Wireless and radio communication, electric power transmission or devices in daily use such as smartphones, tablets and portable computers every day expose people...
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Artificial-Hand Technology—Current State of Knowledge in Designing and Forecasting Changes
PublicationThe subject of human-hand versatility has been intensively investigated for many years. Emerging robotic constructions change continuously in order to mimic natural mechanisms as accurately as possible. Such an attitude is motivated by the demand for humanoid robots with sophisticated end effectors and highly biomimic prostheses. This paper provides wide analysis of more than 80 devices that have been created over the last 40 years....
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Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting
PublicationThis paper examines ownership equity as a predictor of future business failure within the tourism and hospitality sectors. The main goals of this study were to examine which ratios are the most important for a tourism business failure forecasting model and how significant is the “total percentage of equity ownership by company directors” ratio compared with other ratios associated with the probability of bankruptcy. A stepwise...
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Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of statistical methods in forecasting the financial energy of households. The study’s objective is to create the innovative ratios that combine both financial and demographic information of households and implement them in the forecasting models. To conduct this objective, six forecasting models are developed using three different methods—discriminant analysis, logit analysis, and decision trees...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Ultrasonic nebulization atmospheric pressure glow discharge — Preliminary study
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Groundwater quality regeneration in the discharge zone of the Gdansk aquifer system
PublicationEksploatacja wód podziemnych w rejonie Gdańska prowadzona jest głównie w strefie drenażu wód na nizinach nadmorskich. Wieloletni, intensywny pobór spowodował niekorzystne zmiany w ich jakości, są one głównie związane z zasoleniem wód podziemnych intruzjami wód morskich. Sytuacja ta dotyczy zwłaszcza pietra czwartorzędowego. Spadek wilekości eksploatacji, który obserwuje się od lat 90. prowadzi poprawy jakości wód podziemnych, a...
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Characterization of Defects Inside the Cable Dielectric With Partial Discharge Modeling
PublicationThe continuous monitoring of power system devices is an important step toward keeping such capital assets safe. Partial discharge (PD)-based measurement tools provide a reliable and accurate condition assessment of power system insulations. It is very common that voids or cavities exist in every solid dielectric insulation medium. In this article, different voids are modeled and analyzed using an advanced finite element (FE)-based...
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The application of neural networks in forecasting the influence of traffic-induced vibrations on residential buildings
PublicationTraffic-induced vibrations may cause the cracking of plaster, damage to structural elements and, in extreme cases, may even lead to the structural collapse of residential buildings. The aim of this article is to analyse the effectiveness of a method of forecasting the impact of vibrations on residential buildings using the concept of artificial intelligence. The article presents several alternative forecasting systems for which...
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Application of time-series-cross-section data in case of sale forecasting in an enterprise
PublicationW artykule wskazano możliwości wykorzystania danych przestrzenno-czasowych do prognozowania sprzedaży w przedsiębiorstwie. Przedstawiono różne podejścia do prognozowania ekonometrycznego przy użyciu tego typu danych. Wyznaczono krótkookresowe prognozy sprzedaży benzyny bezołowiowej Pb95 w przekroju województw oraz dokonano oceny ich jakości przy użyciu mierników ex-post. Dwie najdokładniejsze metody prognozowania wykorzystano do...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Comparing the Effectiveness of ANNs and SVMs in Forecasting the Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Building
PublicationTraffic - induced vibrations may cause damage to structural elements and may even lead to structural collapse. The aim of the article is to compare the effectiveness of algorithms in forecasting the impact of vibrations on buildings using the Machine Learning (ML) methods. The paper presents two alternative approaches by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). Factors that may affect traffic-induced...
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A Proposed Machine Learning Model for Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Buildings
PublicationTraffic-induced vibrations may cause various damages to buildings located near the road, including cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real buildings are costly and laborious. Therefore the aim of the research is to propose the original numerical algorithm which allows us to predict, with high probability, the nega-tive dynamic impact of traffic-induced...
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Forecasting of railway track tamping based on settlement of sleepers using fuzzy logic
PublicationThe sleepers in a railway track transfer vertical, transverse and longitudinal loads to the track ballast and subgrade. The sleepers allow for keeping the distance between the rails constant. The thickness of ballast should be between 16 and 35 cm depending on the design standard of the track, and it should be densified where the ballast supports the sleeper. The exploitation causes contamination of the ballast, crushing the material...
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Optoelectronic monitoring of plasma discharge optimized for thin diamond film synthesis
PublicationPraca dotyczy optoelektronicznego monitoringu wyładowań jarzeniowych podczas syntezy diamentu cienkowarstwowego. Analizę składu plazmy wykonano za pomoca optycznej spektroskopii emisyjnej. Badania mają na celu zdalne określenie składu plazmy oraz jego wpływu na systezę warstw diamentopodobnych.