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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: BANKRUPTCY RISK
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The risk of corporate bankruptcy - the conceptual model
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of different types of risks influencing the corporate bankruptcy risk. The author has developed conceptual model that explains the causes and the trajectories of the collapse of enterprises. In the analyses such factors as demographic, financial, market, political and operational factors influencing the risk of failure were taken into account.
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublikacjaThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Multi-Criteria Early Warning System Against Enteprise Bankruptcy Risk
PublikacjaW artykule tym autor porównuje skuteczność opracowanego przez niego wielokryterialnego systemu wczesnego ostrzegania firm z tradycyjnym modelem analizy dyskryminacyjnej prognozowania upadłości. System wczesnego ostrzegania oparty został na metodzie logiki rozmytej. Badania te są jedną z pierwszych prób na świecie wykorzystania logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu zagrożenia bankructwem firm. Uzyskane wyniki świadczą o dużym potencjale...
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Warning systems of enterprises against the risk of bankruptcy : Artificial intelligence in financial management.
PublikacjaJest to tłumaczenie na jęz.angielski monografii autora z 2010 roku. Monografia została podzielona na trzy części. I tak, w części pierwszej przedstawiono ocenę przyczyn upadłości firm ze względu nie tylko na źródło (zewnętrzne lub wewnętrzne) przyczyn kłopotów finansowych przedsiębiorstw, ale także na etap kryzysu, w jakim ono się znajduje, cechy "demograficzne" organizacji i rodzaj upadłości. Zdefiniowano również czynniki wpływające...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublikacjaThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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A New Critical Risk on the Block: Cyber Risks as an Example of Technical Knowledge Risks in Organizations
PublikacjaThe breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the appearance of many additional technical knowledge risks in organizations. Cyber risks in particular are becoming a great challenge for organizations. At the same time, academic research on cyber risks, their costs, consequences and ability of overcoming them is still scarce and fragmented. In order to fill this gap, the paper is aimed to identify different types of cyber...
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Predicting bankruptcy with the use of macroeconomic variables
PublikacjaRegarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the...
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Bankruptcy Prediction - History, Present and Future.
PublikacjaW artykule przedstawiono krótką wzmiankę dotyczącą dotychczasowych badań w obszarze zagrożenia przedsiębiorstw upadłością, techniki wykorzystywane do budowy modeli prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw oraz metody stosowane w analizie porównawczej tego typu modeli.
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Financial Markets and Bankruptcy Systems: Is there a Relationship?
PublikacjaPurpose: Filling the cognitive gap in the theory of ex-post transaction costs, i.e., at the stage of enforcing market transactions by examining the relationship between friendliness/severity of the bankruptcy and restructuring law towards debtors, the level of development of financial markets, the effectiveness of the judicial system and the rate of debt recovery. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research, the following methods...
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THE ANALYSIS OF THE BANKRUPTCY OF ENTERPRISES EXEMPLIFIED BY THE VISEGRAD GROUP
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublikacjaThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublikacjaThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublikacjaThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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The impact of bankruptcy regimes on entrepreneurship and innovation. Is there any relationship?
PublikacjaThe literature review indicates that bankruptcy law may play an important role in and be one of the factors infuencing the development of entrepreneurship, innovation, and thus economic growth, among other things. In previous studies, the analysis of the impact of bankruptcy law on individual variables has been conducted independently. Our aim was to conduct a holistic analysis, taking several factors into account simultaneously....
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An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy
PublikacjaW artykule sprawdzono skuteczność pojedynczego modelu logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W badaniach wykorzystano wartości 14 wskaźników finansowych oraz ich dynamikę zmiany między pierwszym a drugim, drugim a trzecim oraz trzecim a czwartym rokiem objętymi analizą. We wnioskach omówiono różnicę w skutecznościach modelu uzyskanego na wartościach statycznych oraz dynamicznych wskaźników finansowych....
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublikacjaIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN POLAND AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN EXPERIENCE
PublikacjaIn highly developed countries, research in the field of bankruptcy risk prediction has been conducted for many years. For example, in the United States, which can be considered a pioneering country, the first publications appeared in the early twentieth century. In Poland, due to political and economic reasons, the interest in this issue dates back to the early 1990s. For this reason, this publication attempts to answer the following...
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Bankruptcy Law Severity for Debtors: Comparative Analysis Among Selected Countries
PublikacjaPurpose: The objective of this paper is to propose the new indicator of bankruptcy law severity for debtors (BLSI-Bankruptcy Law Severity Index). On the basis of this index we conducted comparative analysis of debtor/creditor friendliness of bankruptcy laws among 27 selected countries. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research the following methods were used: analysis of legal acts, literature review and expert method. Findings:...
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Trans-Risk - An Integrated Method for Risk Management in Transport
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Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries
PublikacjaIn developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject of researcher interest only in the 1990s. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze whether these countries conduct bankruptcy risk assessments and what their level of advancement is....
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Bankruptcy system model and efficiency versus the entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries
Publikacjamodel and its efficiency on the development of entrepreneurship and innovation in selected European countries and Turkey. This goal was achieved by examining the relationships between debtor-friendliness of the bankruptcy law model and its efficiency on one side and entrepreneurship and innovation on the other. The cross-sectional ANOVA test and OLS regression method were chosen as the research method. In order to verify the research...
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Short-Term Price Reaction to Filing for Bankruptcy and Restructuring Proceedings—The Case of Poland
PublikacjaThis study aims to check market reaction to filing for bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings and to verify the short-term effect of a price reversal in the Polish market in the years 2004–2019. The research was conducted by dividing the analysed companies according to the procedure (bankruptcy and restructuring) and market (the main market and the NewConnect market). The research methodology used in the study is the event analysis...
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Intraday price reaction to filing bankruptcy and restructuring proceedings – the evidence from Poland
PublikacjaThis chapter presents the results of research on the price reaction of shares listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange to filing bankruptcy and/or restructuring applications. Event study was adopted as the research method, and it was performed at 10, 5, and 1-minute intervals. It was found that the reaction is rapid, as it takes 1–2 minutes after the information on bankruptcy and restructuring applications was made public. Significantly...
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A framework for risk matrix design: A case of MASS navigation risk
PublikacjaRisk matrix, a tool for visualizing risk assessment results, is essential to facilitate the risk communication and risk management in risk-based decision-making processes related to new and unexplored socio-technical systems. The use of an appropriate risk matrix is discussed in the literature, but it is overlooked for emerging technologies such as Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). In this study, a comprehensive framework...
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The role of stakeholders on rejection of bankruptcy applications in the case of “poverty” of the estate: A Polish case study
PublikacjaThe aim of this article is to supplement the Law and Economics area of science with regard to the scope of the ex ante effectiveness of bankruptcy law using the example of Poland. Bankruptcy law is effective in the ex ante stage when it eliminates from the market insolvent entrepreneurs who cannot even afford to cover the costs of bankruptcy proceedings. In these cases, the bankruptcy court should dismiss the petition for bankruptcy...
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Sanctions and their role in preventing the appropriation of the creditor’s property rights in bankruptcy proceedings–the case of Poland
PublikacjaThe aim of this paper is to fill the cognitive gap regarding the role of sanc-tions in the protection of a creditor’s property rights in the event of an entrepreneur insolvency. The impact of sanctions on transaction costs, including their identifica-tion and types, as well as the impact on the protection of creditor rights, has been poorly recognized in the subject literature to date. This article investigates...
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Ttrans-risk - an integrated method for risk management in transport =Trans-risk - zintegrowana metoda zarządzania ryzykiem w transporcie
PublikacjaPodjęto już wiele prób integracji metod zarządzania ryzykiem w innych dziedzinach życia. Przegląd metod zarządzania ryzykiem w poszczególnych gałęziach transportu wskazuje na dość duże rozbieżności terminologiczne i dotyczące szczegółowych zasad i zastosowań metod zarządzania ryzykiem. Istnieje zatem konieczność podjęcia próby integracji metod zarządzania ryzykiem w transporcie. Niniejsza praca jest wynikiem działań interdyscyplinarnego...
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Smoking and cardiovascular risk
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THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE INSURANCE RISK
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Conditional Value-at-Risk Vs. Value-at-Risk to Multi-Objective Portfolio Optimization
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OCCUPATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE RISK SCORE METHOD DURING GEODETIC MEASUREMENTS
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Modeling the risk of ship grounding—a literature review from a risk management perspective
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Ryzyko statystyczne a ryzyko rzeczywistego pacjenta = Statistical risk and risk of the real patient
PublikacjaDzięki wieloletnim obserwacjom populacji ludzkiej udało się zidentyfikować czynniki ryzyka choroby wieńcowej. Najważniejsze z nich to: wiek, płeć, obciążenie genetyczne, palenie papierosów, stężenie cholesterolu we krwi, ciśnienie tętnicze, brak aktywności fizycznej, nadwaga, obecność cukrzycy. Obserwacje prospektywne populacji dostarczyły danych do opracowania modeli, które określają relacje między wartościami czynników ryzyka...
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Risk factors assessment and risk prediction models in lung cancer screening candidates
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Does being socially good save firms from bankruptcy? A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis
PublikacjaThe purpose of the review was to find out, does being responsible saves firms from bank-ruptcy? What is the relationship between corporate social responsibility and default risk? What meth-ods and measures are used in the literature to evaluate this relationship? And what is the theoretical underpinning of the studies? Moreover, to explore what are the gaps for future work, Web of Science and Scopus databases were utilised to obtain...
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Financial risk information avoidance
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Knowledge Risk Management in Organizations
PublikacjaPurpose – Shorter product life cycles, greater demands from consumers for sustainable and eco-friendly products and services, and thus the need for constant market observation make today’s business environment a rather complex one, the one that is characterized not only by a number of opportunities but also by a number of risks. These risks are increasingly related to knowledge which, in turn, underlines the need for an updated...
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Falling accident risk in Poland.
PublikacjaFor the last few years we observe optimistic tendencies in traffic risk development in Poland the number of fatalities decreases about 10% per year, bringing Poland closer to European Union standards. Nevertheless in 2001 we observed the unexpected, and bigger than forecasted, casualty reduction. The reason was the economic downturn suffered across the country, resulting in reduced demand for transportation. The danger lies in...
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Highway engineering risk assessment
PublikacjaNa drogach krajowych w Polsce rocznie ginie ponad 2000 osób w wypadkach drogowych, co stanowi ponad 37% ogółu ofiar śmiertelnych w wypadkach. Do poprawy stanu bezpieczeństwa na tych drogach muszą byc podjęte działania zmierzające do systematycznego dostosowania poszcz. odcinków dróg do standardów bezpieczeństwa. Jednym z narzędzi pomocnych do wyboru odcinków dróg o największym potencjale mozliwych do uratowania od śmierci uczestników...
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Environmental risk measure of ships
PublikacjaW artykule wyszczególniono najistotniejsze zanieczyszczenia uwalniane podczas eksploatacji statków. Przedyskutowano norweską propozycję indeksacji środowiskowej statków. Zaproponowano probabilistyczny model do oceny ryzyka stwarzanego przez statki względem środowiska morskiego oraz miarę tego ryzyka. Przedstawiono także wyniki badań wpływu niezawodnośći elementów technicznych i poziomu wyszkolenia załogi na roczne ryzyko środowiskowe...
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Falling accident risk in Poland.
PublikacjaFor the last few years we observe optimistic tendencies in traffic risk development in Poland - the number of fatalities decreases about 10% per year, bringing Poland closer to European Union standards. Nevertheless in 2001 we observed the unexpected, and bigger than forecasted, fatality reduction. The reason was the economic downturn suffered across the country, resulting in reduced demand for transportation. The danger lies in...
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An environmental risk measure of ships
PublikacjaW referacie wyszczególniono najistotniejsze rodzaje zanieczyszczeń emitowanych przez statki do środowiska naturalnego. Przeprowadzono krótką dyskusję norweskiej propozycji indeksacji środowiskowej statków. Zaproponowano probabilistyczny model do oceny ryzyka stwarzanego przez statki względem środowiska morskiego. Jest to model strategii liniowej. Wiąże w jedną wartość liczbową prawdopodobieństwa uwolnienia zanieczyszczeń ze statku...
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A Revised Approach to Flood Damage Estimation in Flood Risk Maps and Flood Risk Management Plans, Poland
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A performance-oriented risk-based method for assessment of safety of ships. Modelling uncertainties in hazard and risk analysis
PublikacjaW artykule podano informacje na temat alternatywnej metody oceny bezpieczeństwa statków, opartej na ocenie zachowania się statku i ocenie ryzyka. Zaproponowano użycie metody do projektowania statków w oparciu o ocenę ryzyka. W takim podejściu do projektowania bezpieczeństwo powinno być celem projektowym. Ocena bezpieczeństwa w proponowanej metodzie powinna być dokonywana na podstawie oceny ryzyka. Do oceny ryzyka zastosowano elementy...
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Strategic Risk Measures in Road Traffic
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A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers
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Board Gender Diversity and Firm Risk
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