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Search results for: INFLATION FORECAST TARGETING, INFLATION FORECAST, CREDIBILITY INDEX, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic
PublicationProducing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation...
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SPATIAL APPROACH TO HETEROGENEITY OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE EURO AREA
PublicationIn this article, we examine the spatial heterogeneities in inflation expectations of the euro area consumers. We expect to find them heterogeneous in our research period of 2001-2016. Contrary to standard examination of heterogeneity, a spatial correlation analysis is applied by referring to global and local correlation measures. It is performed with the economic distance-based weights (the difference in HICP rates). Application...
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Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?
PublicationWe compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire...
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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INFLUENCE OF TEST CONDITIONS ON TYRE/ROAD NOISE MEASURED BY THE DRUM METHOD
PublicationTyre/road noise is one of the most important environmental problems related to road traffic. Nowadays a few standard procedures of tyre/road noise measurements are in use. Unfortunately, measurement conditions specified within relevant standards are very different. For example, procedure described in ISO 11819-2 used for pavement investigations requires tyre load of 3200 N and capped inflation pressure of 200 kPa. At the same time...
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CURRENT SITUATION ON THE POLAND REAL ESTATE MARKET
PublicationIn recent years the polish real estate market has been characterised by a significant increase in supply and demand. This was facilitated by a number of macroeconomic factors. In recent years, housing has been commissioned as 30 years ago. Therefore, the depth analysis issue of the causes and consequences for the Polish economy of these trends is now relevant. Among the reasons are significant economic growth, low interest rates...
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INFLUENCE OF LOAD AND INFLATION PRESSURE ON THE TYRE ROLLING RESISTANCE
PublicationTyre load and inflation pressure are important factors controlling rolling resistance of road vehicles. The article presents results obtained in the Technical University of Gdańsk during laboratory and road measurements of different car tyres rolling on different pavements. The knowledge of rolling resistance characteristics is important for modelling car dynamics as well as fuel consumption. It is also necessary to establish proper...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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The influence of inflation pressure and ambient temperature on the value of the truck tires rolling resistance
PublicationThe articlediscusses the effect of inflation pressure and the ambient temperature on the value of the rolling resistance of truck tires which directly translates into fuel consumption. For this purpose, a series of measurements was made at two ambient temperatures (at 25°C and -15°C), using different pumping pressures.
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Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case
PublicationThe study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank's base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in...
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The Business Environment of Georgia and Ukraine: Approaches to a Comparative Analysis
PublicationThe formation of a favourable business environment and the intensification of entrepreneurial activity on this basis is one of the priorities of economic policy of governments around the world. The aim of this article is to conduct a comparative analysis of some of the characteristics of the business environment of Georgia and Ukraine. The theoretical basis of the study is the understanding of the business environment as a necessary...
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Application of dynamic factor models for inflation forecasting in Poland
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Accurate modeling of layout parasitic to forecast EMI emitted from a DC-DC converter.
PublicationThis paper illustrates how to account for all parasitic due to the layout of a power converter (inductive and capacitive), in order to forecast electromagnetic interferences (EMI). The method is generic, and is validated here in the simple example of a DC-DC converter, realized on different technologies: insulated metal substrate (IMS), printed circuit board (PCB). In addition, several layouts aspects will be investigated. Conclusions...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Equilibrium price - modelling, forecast and application
PublicationNowoczesną gospodarkę charakteryzuje wzrastające znaczenie cen. Znajomość ogólnych zasad mechanizmu kształtującego ceny oraz analizy cen umożliwiają przedsiębiorstwom przewidzenie ceny równowagi i podjęcie przynoszącej zyski decyzji, zwłaszcza na rynku oligopolu homogenicznego, gdzie przedsiębiorcy muszą brać pod uwagę reakcję konkurencji. Przedstawiony w artykule, dynamiczny model ekonometryczny cen benzyny, na rynku paliw płynnych...
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COVID-19 severity forecast based on machine learning and complete blood count data
PublicationProper triage of COVID-19 patients is a key factor in eective case management, especially with limited and insucient resources. In this paper, we propose a machine-aided diagnostic system to predict how badly a patient with COVID-19 will develop disease. The prognosis of this type is based on the parameters of commonly used complete blood count tests, which makes it possible to obtain data from a wide range of patients.We chose...
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COVID-19 severity forecast based on machine learning and complete blood count data
PublicationProper triage of COVID-19 patients is a key factor in eective case management, especially with limited and insucient resources. In this paper, we propose a machine-aided diagnostic system to predict how badly a patient with COVID-19 will develop disease. The prognosis of this type is based on the parameters of commonly used complete blood count tests, which makes it possible to obtain data from a wide range of patients.We chose...
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The point forecast of the situation of the examined company on the market
PublicationOkreślono sytuację badanego przedsiębiorstwa na rynku za pomocą analizy portfolio, w aspektach wzrostu rynku oraz względnego udziału badanego przedsiębiorstwa w rynku. Analiza objęła zarówno okres retrospektywny jak i prognozowany.
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GIS Solution for Weather Forecast Data Analysis
PublicationIn this paper authors present the GIS system for the analysis of the numerical weather prediction data. This kind of data has multidimensional character (three dimensions and time) and its analysis should consider all the available factors. Proposed GIS system consists of RASDAMAN application with implemented OLAP cube mechanism, which enables the user to process data in the spatial-time domain. It also simplifies the meteorological...
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Reliability of quality forecast for hybrid metal-working machinery
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublicationWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Effect of Active Mining Impact On Properties with Engineering Structures – Forecast and Final Result Discrepancies
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Effect of Forecast Climate Changes on Water Needs of Giant Miscanthus Cultivated in the Kuyavia Region in Poland
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Short clinically-based prediction model to forecast transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk state
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Impact of Investments and R&D Costs in Renewable Energy Technologies on Companies’ Profitability Indicators: Assessment and Forecast
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A Dynamic Forecast Demand Scenario Analysis to Design an Automated Parcel Lockers Network in Pamplona (Spain) Using a Simulation-Optimization Model
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INFLUENCE OF MEASURING CONDITIONS ON TYRE/ROAD NOISE
PublicationA decisive factor for the development of tyres and road surfaces is the ability to conduct representative and reproducible measurements of selected characteristics related to the interaction of tyres and road surfaces. In terms of tyre/road noise measurements in Europe two methods described in ISO/FDIS 11819-2 and ECE Regulation No.117 are used. The latter is compulsory for assigning the tyre noise labels. The methodologies differ...
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Influence of IED Explosion on Lateral Dynamics of a Vehicle
PublicationThe paper describes field test results of heavy vehicle tire blow-outs. Both civilian and military vehicles are subjected to sudden loss of inflation pressure in one or more wheels, often accompanied by serious tire damage. Selected results related to the lateral dynamic of vehicle during and just after explosive tire destruction are reported
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ANALYSIS OF ROLLING RESISTANCE OF TIRES WITH RUN FLAT INSERT APPLYING DRUM METHOD AND RADIAL CHARACTERISTIC
PublicationThis paper presents analysis of rolling resistance of tires with RUN FLAT insert applying drum method and radial characteristic. The conducted studies indicated changes in operational properties of wheel, occurring as a result of inflation pressure drop in the wheel. As regards radial elasticity, such changes result in significant drop of radial rigidity and increase of static deflection and increase of tire rolling resistance....
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Research on operational characteristics of tyres with run flat insert
PublicationThe paper describes results of research on heavy vehicle tyre with Run Flat VFI insert. The experiment has included the determination of heat generation, rolling resistanceand radial stifnessof two different tyre designes (textile and steel carcass). The results have been used for the purpose of ewalution of tyre operating characteristics. The study included research on non-inflated tyre properties. The purpose of the paper is...
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Analysis of Rolling Resistance of Tires With Run Flat Insert
PublicationRun flat properties are required for tires intended for special applications like military or rescue vehicles. Run-Flat inserts make possible to drive a car or truck, with certain restrictions, also when inflation pressure is very low or non-existing (after tire damage). Rolling resistance of tires rolling the inserts increases considerably in relation to the rolling resistance of properly inflated tires. This paper presents results...
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Changes in the structure of Armenia’s labour resources between 1993 and 2020
PublicationThe article characterises the structure of Armenia’s labour resources in the period between1993 and 2020. It aims to assess the changes on the Armenian labour market by means of a deductive analysis of historical data and observation of changes in the structure of resources based on generally available macroeconomic data. The authors evaluate these processes against the background of demographic and economic changes, by presenting...
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Consequences of russia’s military invasion of Ukraine for Polish-Ukrainian trade relations
PublicationAn accurate forecast of interstate trade volume allows for short-term and long-term planning, particularly deciding on state budget revenues, foreign exchange earnings, border arrangement, other infrastructure, migration and social policies. Hostilities are destructive so the russian military aggression against Ukraine in 2022 needs to be assessed in terms of its effects on key economic aspects of Polish-Ukrainian relations, as...
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Fuel price, income and road safety as determinants of the level of the population’s economic well-being in Poland
PublicationThe opportunity to travel is one of the most favorite human activities, given that on a trip a person gets new knowledge, impressions and positive emotions. Recreational trips occupy a prominent place in the concept of the economics of happiness, and the study of factors that influence decision-making regarding travel is important for forecasting the number of tourists, infrastructure development, income and expenses of businesses...
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Application of MARKAL model to optimisation of electricity generation structure in Poland in the long-term time horizon. Part II. Model and forecasts assumptions
PublicationIn this paper, the next in a series of publications on the subject, assumptions are presented of a power system development model in terms of electricity generation technology infrastructure in Poland, in the long term perspective until 2060. The model is based on the mathematical structure of the MARKAL optimization package. Among other things developed are a forecast of the final demand for electricity and heat, the current...
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Numerical Analysis of Mice Carotid Arteries’ Response Emphasizing the Importance of Material Law Constants’ Validation
PublicationIn this paper, a detailed validation of the passive material properties of mice carotid arteries and constants of the Fung and Holzapfel hyperelastic material laws is conducted by means of static nonlinear FEM analyses. The response of the carotid arteries in an inflation test is studied here for the following mouse models: wild-type, mdx, sgcd−/−, Eln+/+, Eln+/−, Fbln5+/+, and Fbln5−/−. All FEM computations are conducted on models...
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Skuteczne prognozowanie krótkoterminowe mocy farm wiatrowych
PublicationPrognozowanie mocy wytwórczej konkretnej farmy wiatrowej (FW) w horyzoncie 24-godzinnymwymaga zarówno wiarygodnej prognozy wietrzności, jak i narzędzi wspomagających. Narzędzie to jest dedykowanym modelem mocy farmy. Model powinien uwzględniać nie tylko ogólne zasady przetwarzania energii wiatru na energię mechaniczną, ale także cechy szczególnekonkretnej farmy. Liczba czynników wpływających na moc farmy jest duża i dokładna prognozamocy,...
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Effective Short -term Forecasting of Wind Farms Power
PublicationForecasting a specific wind farm's generation capacity within a 24 hour perpective requires both a reliable forecast of wind, as well as supporting tools. This tool is a dedicated model of wind farm power. This model should include not only general rules of wind to mechanical energy conversion, but also the farm's specific features. This paper present analytical, statistical, and neuron models of wind farm power. The study is based...
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Economic crisis in Croatia
PublicationCroatia is becoming the 28th member of the European Union on July 1st, 2013. Croatia has gone a long way from a socialistic republic to an independent country recognized as one of the economic tigers of the Western Balkans in the first decade of the 21st century. Croatia has been hit by a global crisis which turned out to be a huge external shock for the region of the Western Balkans. Although it does not enter the economy through...
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Tyre/road noise measurements on ISO tracks according to the UNECE Regulation 117
PublicationWithin the Polish-Norwegian research project ELANORE, a limited Round Robin Test has been performed on 3 ISO tracks in Northern Europe. The basic objective of the project is to improve the EU directive on labelling of tyres for noise and rolling resistance, and this directive is based on the measurement procedures defined in the UN ECE Reg.117. The same test car, test tyres and measurement equipment as well as personnel were used...
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A MODEL FOR FORECASTING PM10 LEVELS WITH THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PublicationThis work presents a method of forecasting the level of PM10 with the use of artificial neural networks. Current level of particulate matter and meteorological data was taken into account in the construction of the model (checked the correlation of each variable and the future level of PM10), and unidirectional networks were used to implement it due to their ease of learning. Then, the configuration of the network (built on the...
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Noise and Rolling Resistance Properties of Various Types of Winter Tyres Compared to Normal Car Tyres
PublicationTo cope with winter weather conditions, potentially including snow and ice, it is common to use winter tyres, or ”all-seasons” tyres assumed to be safe both in summer and winter. In some northern countries, winter tyres are mandatory. Traditionally, it has been assumed that winter tyres are noisier than normal tyres (here called summer tyres) and winter tyres equipped with studs are assumed to be very noisy.This paper presents...
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Nonlinear material identification of heterogeneous isogeometric Kirchhoff–Love shells
PublicationThis work presents a Finite Element Model Updating inverse methodology for reconstructing heterogeneous materialdistributions based on an efficient isogeometric shell formulation. It uses nonlinear hyperelastic material models suitable fordescribing incompressible material behavior as well as initially curved shells. The material distribution is discretized by bilinearelements such that the nodal values...
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Modeling process of planning finished product sales volumes at industrial enterprises in modern economic conditions
PublicationThis article presents improving the existing system of planning finished products sales volumes. The influencing factors of the sales volumes in modern economic conditions have been determined: falling world oil prices, the reduction of pipe consumption in the domestic market, the global pandemic. The algorithm of planning finished products sales volumes has been constructed. Calculations based on the Holt forecasting method has...
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Relationship between GIX, SIDX, and ROTI ionospheric indices and GNSS precise positioning results under geomagnetic storms
PublicationIonospheric indices give information about ionospheric perturbations, which may cause absorption, diffraction, refraction, and scattering of radio signals, including those from global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). Therefore, there may be a relationship between index values and GNSS positioning results. A thorough understanding of ionospheric indices and their relationship to positioning results can help monitor and forecast...
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Forecasting of retail prices of liquid fuels in Poland
PublicationMotivation: In recent years, the prices of liquid fuels in Poland have been rising , negatively affecting the country’s economy and the daily life of its inhabitants. Consequently, there is a need for effective forecasting of prices in fuel markets, as this could enable entrepreneurs and consumers to make more informed decisions. Aim: The objective of the article was to forecast the retail prices of EU95 petrol and diesel fuel...