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Search results for: WEATHER FORECASTS, WEATHER ROUTING, HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
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Prediction of consumer electricity needs based on Internet weather forecasts
PublicationElectrical energy is considered both as an important driver for producing and transporting goods in companies, as well as a good in itself which requires planning and management for generating and delivering it to consumers in proper time and amounts. Weather information can be considered to convey part of the data on energy delivery needs of consumers. Free meteorological data sources on the Web do not offer consistent data to...
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublicationWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Multi-objective weather routing of sailing vessels
PublicationThe paper presents a multi-objective deterministic method of weather routing for sailing vessels. Depending on a particular purpose of sailboat weather routing, the presented method makes it possible to customize the criteria and constraints so as to fit a particular user’s needs. Apart from a typical shortest time criterion, safety and comfort can also be taken into account. Additionally, the method supports dynamic weather data:...
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Collision Risk-Informed Weather Routing for Sailboats
PublicationSelected COLREG rules, good seamanship and sheer common sense indicate that it is in a sailboat's interest to follow collision-free routes without relying on large power-driven ships to give way. Until now, however, no method has integrated a sailboat's weather routing with collision risk monitoring and collision avoidance. Therefore, a new deterministic approach to combine the above features within one method is introduced here....
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Weather Routing System Architecture Using Onboard Data Collection and Route Optimisation
PublicationThis paper describes the architecture of a weather routing system consisting of two key elements: onboard monitoring and route optimiser sub-systems. The former is responsible for collecting various onboard measurements, such as current ship position or ship motion variables. These data, when gathered and processed, are then used for fine-tuning a ship model. The model, together with weather forecasts, is utilised by a multi-objective...
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Ship weather routing featuring w-MOEA/D and uncertainty handling
PublicationThe paper presents a new version of evolutionary multi-objective weather routing (WR) for ships taking into account uncertainties of weather forecasts in route optimization. The method applies authors’ w-MOEA/D algorithm: MOEA/D framework incorporating Decision Maker’s (DM) preferences by means of w-dominance relation. Owing to this, DM preferences are taken into account throughout optimization, allowing the process to focus on...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublicationThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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Calibration of precipitation estimation algorithm with particular emphasis on the Pomeranian region using high performance computing
PublicationFast and accurate precipitation estimation is an important element of remote atmosphere monitoring, as it allows, for example, to correct short-term weather forecasts and the prediction of several types of meteorological threats. The paper presents methodology for calibrating precipitation estimation algorithm based on MSG SEVIRI sensor data, and Optimal Cloud Analysis product available via EumetCast transmission. Calibration is...
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STEROWNIK MIKROSIECI ELEKTROENERGETYCZNEJ
PublicationW artykule rozpatruje się konstrukcję sterownika mikrosieci elektroenergetycznej. Sterownik zarządza zasobamienergii elektrycznej w celu pokrycia zapotrzebowania lokalnych gospodarstw domowych z uwzględnieniem kwestii ekonomicznych. Przedstawiono strukturę sterowania, zdefiniowano zadanie optymalizacji, dokonano badań symulacyjnych dla przykładowej mikrosieci o zróżnicowanych sposobach generowania i magazynowania. Zaproponowano...
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Efektywna metoda wyznaczania trasy statków żaglowych
PublicationZaproponowano metodę wyznaczania suboptymalnej trasy statków żaglowych poruszających się w ograniczonym akwenie morskim. Uwzględniono przy tym dynamikę tego środowiska w tym warunki pogodowe oraz charakterystyki prędkościowe statków żaglowych. Jako kryterium optymalizacji przyjęto czas żeglugi T oraz liczbę wykonanych manewrów ω. Zaprojektowano heurystyczny algorytm oraz odpowiednią aplikację wyznaczania trasy dla ustalonych punktów...
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Towards Improving Optimised Ship Weather Routing
PublicationThe aim of the paper is to outline a project focusing on the development of a new type of ship weather routing solution with improved uncertainty handling, through better estimation of ship performance and responses to sea conditions. Ensemble forecasting is considered to take into account the uncertainty levels that are typical of operations in a stochastic environment. Increased accuracy of weather prediction is achieved through...
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Weather Hazard Avoidance in Modeling Safety of Motor-Driven Ship for Multicriteria Weather Routing
PublicationWeather routing methods find the most suitable ocean?s route for a vessel, taking into account changeable weather conditions and navigational constraints. In the multicriteria approach based on the evolutionary SPEA algorithm one is able to consider a few constrained criteria simultaneously. The approach applied for a ship with hybrid propulsions has already been presented by one of the authors on previous TransNav?2009. This time...
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Investigating the Impact of Weather Conditions and Time of Day on Traffic Flow Characteristics
PublicationAdverse weather such as rain, snow, and fog may significantly reduce visibility or change adhesion properties and, as a consequence, affect drivers’ sense of safety, driving comfort, and their reaction to a changing driving environment (i.e., lower speed and increased headways). The changed behavior of individual drivers affects both traffic flow characteristics, that is, average speed and headways, and parameters related to highway...
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Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm in Practice
PublicationThe Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA) has already been introduced by the author on earlier TransNav 2009 and 2011 conferences with a focus on theoretical application to a hybrid-propulsion or motor-driven ship. This paper addresses the topic of possible practical weather routing applications of MEWRA. In the paper some practical advantages of utilizing Pareto front as a result of multicriteria optimization...
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Multi-objective Weather Routing with Customised Criteria and Constraints
PublicationThe paper presents a weather routing algorithm utilising a multi-objective optimisation with constraints, namely the Multi-objective Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA). In the proposed approach weather route recommendations can be made simultaneously e.g. for passage time, fuel consumption and safety of passage by means of Pareto optimisation. The sets of criteria and constraints in the optimisation process are fully...
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Enhancing Resilience of FSO Networks to Adverse Weather Conditions
PublicationOptical wireless networks realized by means of gigabit optical wireless communication (OWC) systems are becoming, in a variety of applications, an important alternative, or a complementary solution, to their fiber-based counterparts. However, performance of the OWC systems can be considerably degraded in periods of unfavorable weather conditions, such as heavy fog, which temporarily reduce the effective capacity of the network....
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ADOPTED ISOCHRONE METHOD IMPROVING SHIP SAFETY IN WEATHER ROUTING WITH EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH
PublicationThe paper is focused on adaptation of an isochrone method necessary for application to a weather routing system with evolutionary approach. Authors propose an adaptation of the isochrone method with area partitioning assuring that the route found by the adopted method would not cross land. In result, when applied to a weather routing system with evolutionary approach, this proposal facilitates creation of initial population, resulting...
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Optimization of Wireless Networks for Resilience to Adverse Weather Conditions
PublicationIn this chapter, we consider how adverse weather conditions such as rain or fog affect the performance of wireless networks, and how to optimize these networks so as to make them robust to these conditions. We first show how to analyze the weather conditions in order to make them useful for network optimization modelling. Using an example realistic network, we show how to optimize two types of wireless networks: free-space optical...
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Preference-based evolutionary multi-objective optimization in ship weather routing
PublicationIn evolutionary multi-objective optimization (EMO) the aim is to find a set of Pareto-optimal solutions. Such approach may be applied to multiple real-life problems, including weather routing (WR) of ships. The route should be optimal in terms of passage time, fuel consumption and safety of crew and cargo while taking into account dynamically changing weather conditions. Additionally it must not violate any navigational constraints...
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Ship weather routing optimization with dynamic constraints based on reliable synchronous roll prediction
PublicationShip routing process taking into account weather conditions is a constrained multi-objective optimization problem and it should consider various optimization criteria and constraints. Formulation of a stability-related, dynamic route optimization constraint is presented in this paper. One of the key objectives of a cross ocean sailing is finding a compromise between ship safety and economics of operation. This compromise should...
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Akustyczna analiza parametrów ruchu drogowego z wykorzystaniem informacji o hałasie oraz uczenia maszynowego
PublicationCelem rozprawy było opracowanie akustycznej metody analizy parametrów ruchu drogowego. Zasada działania akustycznej analizy ruchu drogowego zapewnia pasywną metodę monitorowania natężenia ruchu. W pracy przedstawiono wybrane metody uczenia maszynowego w kontekście analizy dźwięku (ang.Machine Hearing). Przedstawiono metodologię klasyfikacji zdarzeń w ruchu drogowym z wykorzystaniem uczenia maszynowego. Przybliżono podstawowe...
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Assessing the Effects of the Road Surface and Weather Conditions on Road Safety
PublicationWhen transport is analysed for its safe delivery the focus is mainly on assessing the safety of roads and the risk of undesired events. These include road accidents, an occurrence which is relatively rare and random. Randomness means that accidents depend on several factors which are partly deterministic (can be controlled) and partly stochastic (random and unpredictable). The set of crash contributing factors can be classified...
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Impact of adverse winter weather on traffic flow
PublicationThe paper aims to analyse the impact of adverse weather in winter on traffic flow using data from a dual carriageway section of an express road located in Gdansk. For the purposes of the analysis, traffic and meteorological data were collected for a period of 15 months in 2014-2015 and aggregated to 5 minutes intervals. The impact of winter weather conditions on traffic flow was assessed by comparing aggregated traffic stream parameters...
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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Determining and visualizing safe motion parameters of a ship navigating in severe weather conditions
PublicationThe paper presents a method of determining, organizing and displaying ship collision avoidance information, which is based on the Collision Threat Parameters Area (CTPA) technique. The method makes it possible to visualize navigational threats as well as possible collision avoidance manoeuvres. The solution is focused on supporting navigation in severe weather conditions. Normally collision avoidance decisions are made taking into...
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EVOLUTIONARY MULTI–OBJECTIVE WEATHER ROUTING OF SAILBOATS
PublicationThe paper presents a multi-objective method, which optimises the route of a sailboat. The presented method makes use of an evolutionary multi-objective (EMO) algorithm, which performs the optimisation according to three objective functions: total passage time, a sum of all course alterations made during the voyage and the average angle of heel. The last two of the objective functions reflect the navigator’s and passenger’s comfort,...
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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The Impact of Weather on Traffic Speed in Urban Area
PublicationThe issue of the impact of weather conditions on trip speed of vehicles has been studied for a long time and it is still the subject of many scientific researches. The impact of atmospheric conditions on the speed with which drivers drive their vehicles seems to be obvious. Good weather conditions, sunny weather with good visibility surely provokes higher speed while rainfall, wind...
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Optimizing FSO networks resilient to adverse weather conditions by means of enhanced uncertainty sets
PublicationThis work deals with dimensioning of wireless mesh networks (WMN) composed of FSO (free space optics) links. Although FSO links realize broadband transmission at low cost, their drawback is sensitivity to adverse weather conditions causing transmission degradation on multiple links. Hence, designing such FSO networks requires an optimization model to find the cheapest configuration of link capacities that will be able to carry...
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GIS Solution for Weather Forecast Data Analysis
PublicationIn this paper authors present the GIS system for the analysis of the numerical weather prediction data. This kind of data has multidimensional character (three dimensions and time) and its analysis should consider all the available factors. Proposed GIS system consists of RASDAMAN application with implemented OLAP cube mechanism, which enables the user to process data in the spatial-time domain. It also simplifies the meteorological...
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Effects of biotransport and hydro-meteorological conditions on transport of trace elements in the Scott River (Bellsund, Spitsbergen)
PublicationThe shaping of surface water chemistry in the Svalbard Archipelago is strongly dependent on the geology of the catchment and the process of long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants (LRATP). It was found that the dissolved trace elements in the Scott River, which catchment is characterized by a decreasing degree of glaciation, were of the natural origin (i.a. weathering and dissolution of local geological substratum). The...
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublicationPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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Multi-objective weather routing of sailboats considering wave resistance
PublicationThe article presents a method to determine the route of a sailing vessel with the aid of deterministic algorithms. The method assumes that the area in which the route is to be determined is limited and the basic input data comprise the wind vector and the speed characteristic of the vessel. Compared to previous works of the authors, the present article additionally takes into account the effect of sea waves with the resultant resistance...
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A survey on network resiliency methodologies against weather-based disruptions
PublicationDue to the increasing dependence on network services of our society, research has recently been concentrating on enhancing traditional protection strategies to withstand large-scale failures, as in case of disaster events. The recently-formed EU-funded RECODIS project aims at coordinating and fostering research collaboration in Europe on disaster resiliency in communication networks. In particular, the Working Group (WG) 2 of the...
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Evaluation and application of data from road weather stations for winter maintenance management
PublicationThe paper presents the analysis of road weather data from meteorological stations located at the Polish national roads of Pomerania District during the impact of winter conditions. Presented issue is particularly important from the point of view the problem of winter maintenance and especially for prediction and assurance of quality of asphalt pavement surface ie. resistance to low temperature cracking or risk of glazed frost....
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Forecasts of the managed futures market – an empirical analysis
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Derecho Evolving from a Mesocyclone—A Study of 11 August 2017 Severe Weather Outbreak in Poland: Event Analysis and High-Resolution Simulation
PublicationThis study documents atmospheric conditions, development, and evolution of a severe weather outbreak that occurred on 11 August 2017 in Poland. The emphasis is on analyzing system morphology and highlighting the importance of a mesovortex in producing the most significant wind damages. A derecho-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) had a remarkable intensity and was one of the most impactful convective storms in the history...
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Operational Enhancement of Numerical Weather Prediction with Data from Real-time Satellite Images
PublicationNumerical weather prediction (NWP) is a rapidly expanding field of science, which is related to meteorology, remote sensing and computer science. Authors present methods of enhancing WRF EMS (Weather Research and Forecast Environmental Modeling System) weather prediction system using data from satellites equipped with AMSU sensor (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit). The data is acquired with Department of Geoinformatics’ ground...
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A new approach to design of weather disruption-tolerant wireless mesh networks
PublicationWireless Mesh Networks, offering transmission rates of 1–10 Gb/s per a millimeter-wave link (utilizing the 71–86 GHz band) seem to be a promising alternative to fiber optic backbone metropolitan area networks because of significantly lower costs of deployment and maintenance. However, despite providing high transmission rates in good weather conditions, high-frequency wireless links are very susceptible to weather disruptions....
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Protecting Wireless Mesh Networks Against Adverse Weather Conditions
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Concentrations and loads of DOC, phenols and aldehydes in a proglacial arctic river in relation to hydro-meteorological conditions. A case study from the southern margin of the Bellsund Fjord – SW Spitsbergen
PublicationClimate warming accelerates the melting and thawing of cryosphere components. Therefore, it favours the release of contaminants stored in High-Arctic glaciers for many years. The rate of land-based glacier retreat is of particular importance for the hydrological regime of glacial rivers, but also for the chemical composition of their waters. In this study, we examined 84 surface water samples collected during a period of 42 days...
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On the estimation of the design loads on container stacks due to excessive acceleration in adverse weather conditions
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Weather Conditions, Orchard Age and Nitrogen Fertilization Influences Yield and Quality of ‘Łutówka’ Sour Cherry Fruit
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Extreme weather layer method for implementation of nature-based solutions for climate adaptation: Case study Słupsk
PublicationOne of the most severe climate risks that is expected to affect all regions is related to stormwater. Climate models, constructed based on long-term trends, show that extreme weather events such as storms, cloudbursts and a large rise in sea level will be significant in the coming decades. Moreover, even the frequency and intensity of “normal” rainfall events, such as microbursts, are expected to be remarkably higher than today...
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Geographic Information System for Flood Hazard Analysis and Early Warning Using Numerical Weather Predictions
PublicationFloods are a phenomenon which causes significant losses of lives as well as property damage, which in turn severely impact the local economy. The nature of a flooding has been well researched, and several methods of flood hazard simulation have been established over the last decades. The current legislation in the European Union requires the Member States to create, maintain and update flood risk and hazard maps, as well as identify...
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Design of Weather Disruption-Tolerant Wireless Mesh Networks
PublicationZ uwagi na wysoki koszt realizacji sieci teleinformatycznych wykorzystujących przewodową transmisję światłowodową, bezprzewodowe sieci kratowe (WMN) oferujące transmisję rzędu 1-10 Gb/s (przy wykorzystaniu pasma millimeter-wave - 71-86 GHz), wydają się być obiecującą alternatywą dla przewodowych sieci MAN. Jednakże z uwagi na właściwości transmisji bezprzewodowej w oparciu o łącza wysokiej częstotliwości, łącza te są bardzo wrażliwe...
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Determination of probabilities defining safety of a sea-going ship during performance of a transportation task in stormy weather conditions
PublicationThe paper presents the possibility of applying the theory of semi-Markov processes to determine the limiting distribution for the process of changes of technical states being reliability states of the systems of sea-going ships significantly affecting safety of such ships, which include main engine, propeller and steering gear. The distribution concerns the probabilities of occurrence of the said states defined for a long time...
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Underground Water Level Prediction in Remote Sensing Images Using Improved Hydro Index Value with Ensemble Classifier
PublicationThe economic sustainability of aquifers across the world relies on accurate and rapid estimates of groundwater storage changes, but this becomes difficult due to the absence of insitu groundwater surveys in most areas. By closing the water balance, hydrologic remote sensing measures offer a possible method for quantifying changes in groundwater storage. However, it is uncertain to what extent remote sensing data can provide an...
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Calculation of silicon cell temperature of loaded photovoltaic module based on thermal coefficients for different weather conditions of Northern Poland
PublicationWydajność obciążonego modułu fotowoltaicznego zależy silnie od natężenia promieniowania słonecznego, temperatury otoczenia, prędkości wiatru i temperatury wewnętrznej składowych ogniw fotowoltaicznych. Sprawność konwersji fotowoltaicznej spada istotnie wraz z e wzrostem temperatury złącza p-n. Pomiar tej temperatury jest niemożliwy i oblicza się ją w oparciu o mierzoną wartość temperatury przedniej lub tylnej powierzchni modułu...