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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL PARAMETERS
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NON-LINE ANALYSIS OF STIFFNESS IN COMPRESSION CONDITIONS
PublikacjaThe analyzes were aimed at demonstrating the influence of parameters describing the deformation of the structure on the uncertainty of critical force, and the impact of technological imperfections on stress uncertainty in compression conditions. In a linear buckling analysis, the problem is considered only for the initial, permanent state of the stiffness matrix. In the case of demonstrating the influence of initial deformations...
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Risk factor assessment in agricultural supply chain by fuzzy logic
PublikacjaSignificant uncertainty characterizes the harvest period. This aspect is due to various risks impacting agrifood supply chains. The occurrence of risks is due to hazards: technological failures, technical breakdowns, or adverse weather conditions. Hence, the operational time of the agricultural supply chain during the harvest period increases due to such risk factors. In essence, some hazards are fuzzy, and the nature of most threats...
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Soft-decision schemes for radar estimation of elevation at low grazing angles
PublikacjaIn modern radars, the problem of estimating elevation angle at low grazing angles is typically solved using superresolution techniques. These techniques often require one to provide an estimate of the number of waveforms impinging the array, which one can accomplish using model selection techniques. In this paper, we investigate the performance of an alternative approach, based on the Bayesian-like model averaging. The Bayesian...
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Locally Adaptive Cooperative Kalman Smoothing and Its Application to Identification of Nonstationary Stochastic Systems
PublikacjaOne of the central problems of the stochastic approximation theory is the proper adjustment of the smoothing algorithm to the unknown, and possibly time-varying, rate and mode of variation of the estimated signals/parameters. In this paper we propose a novel locally adaptive parallel estimation scheme which can be used to solve the problem of fixed-interval Kalman smoothing in the presence of model uncertainty. The proposed solution...
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Robust Object Detection with Multi-input Multi-output Faster R-CNN
PublikacjaRecent years have seen impressive progress in visual recognition on many benchmarks, however, generalization to the out-of-distribution setting remains a significant challenge. A state-of-the-art method for robust visual recognition is model ensembling. However, recently it was shown that similarly competitive results could be achieved with a much smaller cost, by using multi-input multi-output architecture (MIMO). In this work,...
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Robust Object Detection with Multi-input Multi-output Faster R-CNN
PublikacjaRecent years have seen impressive progress in visual recognition on many benchmarks, however, generalization to the out-of-distribution setting remains a significant challenge. A state-of-the-art method for robust visual recognition is model ensembling. However, recently it was shown that similarly competitive results could be achieved with a much smaller cost, by using multi-input multi-output architecture (MIMO). In this work,...
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Non-Adaptive Rotor Speed Estimation of Induction Machine in an Adaptive Full-Order Observer
PublikacjaIn the sensorless control system of an induction machine, the rotor speed value is not measured but reconstructed by an observer structure. The rotor speed value can be reconstructed by the classical adaptive law with the integrator. The second approach, which is the main contribution of this paper, is the non-adaptive structure without an integrator. The proposed method of the rotor speed reconstruction is based on an algebraic...
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Application of Bayesian Networks in risk diagnostics arising from the degree of urban regeneration area degradation
PublikacjaUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Application of BN in Risk Diagnostics Arising from the Degree of Urban Regeneration Area Degradation
PublikacjaUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Accounting for the distributions of input quantities in the procedure for the measurement uncertainty evaluation when calibrating the goniometer
PublikacjaThe discords concerning the measurement uncertainty evaluation in the Guide to the Expressing of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and its Supplement 1 are considered. To overcome these discords, the authors of the paper propose to use the kurtosis method and the law of the propagation of the expanded uncertainty. Using the example of the goniometer calibration, the features of accounting for the distribution laws of input quantities...
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Improved Modeling of Microwave Structures Using Performance-Driven Fully-Connected Regression Surrogate
PublikacjaFast replacement models (or surrogates) have been widely applied in the recent years to accelerate simulation-driven design procedures in microwave engineering. The fundamental reason is a considerable—and often prohibitive—CPU cost of massive full-wave electromagnetic (EM) analyses related to solving common tasks such as parametric optimization or uncertainty quantification. The most popular class of surrogates are data-driven...
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An Automatic Self-Tuning Control System Design for an Inverted Pendulum
PublikacjaA control problem of an inverted pendulum in the presence of parametric uncertainty has been investigated in this paper. In particular, synthesis and implementation of an automatic self-tuning regulator for a real inverted pendulum have been given. The main cores of the control system are a swing-up control method and a stabilisation regulator. The first one is based on the energy of an inverted pendulum, whereas the second one...
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Variable‐fidelity modeling of antenna input characteristics using domain confinement and two‐stage Gaussian process regression surrogates
PublikacjaThe major bottleneck of electromagnetic (EM)-driven antenna design is the high CPU cost of massive simulations required by parametric optimization, uncertainty quantification, or robust design procedures. Fast surrogate models may be employed to mitigate this issue to a certain extent. Unfortunately, the curse of dimensionality is a serious limiting factor, hindering the construction of conventional data-driven models valid over...
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Design-oriented modeling of antenna structures by means of two-level kriging with explicit dimensionality reduction
PublikacjaThe employment of full-wave electromagnetic (EM) analysis is a practical necessity in the design of contemporary antenna structures. This is because simpler models are generally not available or of limited accuracy. At the same time, EM-based design is computationally expensive. Consequently, the ways of accelerating tasks such as parametric optimization or uncertainty quantification have to be sought. A possible workaround that...
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Accurate Modeling of Antenna Structures by Means of Domain Confinement and Pyramidal Deep Neural Networks
PublikacjaThe importance of surrogate modeling techniques has been gradually increasing in the design of antenna structures over the recent years. Perhaps the most important reason is a high cost of full-wave electromagnetic (EM) analysis of antenna systems. Although imperative in ensuring evaluation reliability, it entails considerable computational expenses. These are especially pronounced when carrying out EM-driven design tasks such...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublikacjaA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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Quality of Analytical Results: Classifiying Errors and Estimating Measurement Uncertainty
PublikacjaThe most important parameter of each analytical result is its reliability. An analytical result is not a constant value; each result has two properties, error and uncertainty. The sources of both these parameters have to be known and their values determined (estimated). All analytical results are obtained by applying an appropriate measuring procedure. The need for reliable results requires application of reliable analytical procedures,...
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Impact of probability distribution on the uncertainty of resistance measurement
PublikacjaThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of resistance: 100 G. The analysis of the uncertainty...
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Safety integrity level verification for safety-related functions with security aspects
PublikacjaThe article is devoted some important issues of the functional safety analysis, in particular the safetyintegrity level (SIL) verification of safety functions to be implemented within the distributed controland protection systems with regard to cyber security aspects. The procedure for functional safety man-agement includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safetyrequirements and definition...
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Cryptocurrencies as a speculative asset. How much uncertainty is included in cryptocurrency price?
PublikacjaThe aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between uncertainty indices (Geopolitical Uncertainty Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index) and cryptocurrencies. In order to conduct research, the authors collected the data on the major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Dogecoin and USD coin) which account for 78% of the total market cap. Using panel OLS regression, this study finds that Bitcoin...
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Uncertainty of the liquid mass flow measurement using the orifice plate
PublikacjaThe article presents an estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. This subject is essential because of the widespread use of this type of flow meters. Not only the quantitative estimation but also the qualitative results of those measurements are important. To achieve these results the authors of the paper propose to use the theory of uncertainty. The article shows the analysis of the...
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Expedited Yield-Driven Design of High-Frequency Structures by Kriging Surrogates in Confined Domains
PublikacjaUncertainty quantification is an important aspect of engineering design, also pertaining to the development and performance evaluation of high-frequency structures systems. Manufacturing tolerances as well as other types of uncertainties, related to material parameters (e.g., substrate permittivity) or operating conditions (e.g., bending) may affect the characteristics of antennas or microwave devices. For example, in the case...
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Efficient uncertainty quantification using sequential sampling-based neural networks
PublikacjaUncertainty quantification (UQ) of an engineered system involves the identification of uncertainties, modeling of the uncertainties, and the forward propagation of the uncertainties through a system analysis model. In this work, a novel surrogate-based forward propagation algorithm for UQ is proposed. The proposed algorithm is a new and unique extension of the recent efficient global optimization using neural network (NN)-based...
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Estimating the uncertainty of the liquid mass flow using the orifice plate
PublikacjaThe article presents estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. This subject is essential because of the widespread use of this type of flow meters, which renders not only the quantitative estimation but also qualitative results of this type so those measurements are important. To achieve this goal, the authors of the paper propose to use the theory of uncertainty. The article shows the...
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Knowledge-based performance-driven modeling of antenna structures
PublikacjaThe importance of surrogate modeling techniques in the design of modern antenna systems has been continuously growing over the recent years. This phenomenon is a matter of practical necessity rather than simply a fashion. On the one hand, antenna design procedures rely on full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulation tools. On the other hand, the computational costs incurred by repetitive EM analyses involved in solving common tasks...
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Uncertainty assessment of ultimate strength of corroded stiffened plates subjected to different maintenance actions
PublikacjaThe study deals with the uncertainty assessment of different governing factors related to the ultimate strength of the corroded stiffened plates. The load-carrying capacity is predicted with the use of the nonlinear Finite Element Method. The most influencing governing factors in the non-linear FE analysis, such as material properties and initial imperfections are modeled and analysed as stochastic variables. The ultimate strength...
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Closer Look at the Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation under Distributional Shift
PublikacjaWhile recent computer vision algorithms achieve impressive performance on many benchmarks, they lack robustness - presented with an image from a different distribution, (e.g. weather or lighting conditions not considered during training), they may produce an erroneous prediction. Therefore, it is desired that such a model will be able to reliably predict its confidence measure. In this work, uncertainty estimation for the task...
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Estimation of the uncertainty of the AC/AC transducer output voltage
PublikacjaThe paper presents a methodology for estimating uncertainty of voltage transducers processing function, on the example of CYVS411D07 voltage transducers. The analysis was conducted using the method based on the GUM Guide propagation of uncertainty law and the determination of the coverage factor based on the effective number of degrees of freedom (t-Student distribution). The paper also presents example evaluation results of measured...
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Optimizing FSO networks resilient to adverse weather conditions by means of enhanced uncertainty sets
PublikacjaThis work deals with dimensioning of wireless mesh networks (WMN) composed of FSO (free space optics) links. Although FSO links realize broadband transmission at low cost, their drawback is sensitivity to adverse weather conditions causing transmission degradation on multiple links. Hence, designing such FSO networks requires an optimization model to find the cheapest configuration of link capacities that will be able to carry...
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Uncertainty in emotion recognition
PublikacjaPurpose–The purpose of this paper is to explore uncertainty inherent in emotion recognition technologiesand the consequences resulting from that phenomenon.Design/methodology/approach–The paper is a general overview of the concept; however, it is basedon a meta-analysis of multiple experimental and observational studies performed over the past couple of years.Findings–The mainfinding of the paper might be summarized as follows:...
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Expedited Yield Optimization of Narrow- and Multi-Band Antennas Using Performance-Driven Surrogates
PublikacjaUncertainty quantification is an important aspect of engineering design, also pertaining to the development and performance evaluation of antenna systems. Manufacturing tolerances as well as other types of uncertainties, related to material parameters (e.g., substrate permittivity) or operating conditions (e.g., bending) may affect the antenna characteristics. In the case of narrow- or multi-band antennas, this usually leads to...
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Reliable Surrogate Modeling of Antenna Input Characteristics by Means of Domain Confinement and Principal Components
PublikacjaA reliable design of contemporary antenna structures necessarily involves full-wave electromagnetic (EM) analysis which is the only tool capable of accounting, for example, for element coupling or the effects of connectors. As EM simulations tend to be CPU-intensive, surrogate modeling allows for relieving the computational overhead of design tasks that require numerous analyses, for example, parametric optimization or uncertainty...
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Antenna Modeling Using Variable-Fidelity EM Simulations and Constrained Co-Kriging
PublikacjaUtilization of fast surrogate models has become a viable alternative to direct handling of fullwave electromagnetic (EM) simulations in EM-driven design. Their purpose is to alleviate the difficulties related to high computational cost of multiple simulations required by the common numerical procedures such as parametric optimization or uncertainty quantification. Yet, conventional data-driven (or approximation) modeling techniques...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio-and Structural Mechanics
PublikacjaThis monograph presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio- and Structural Mechanics
PublikacjaThis thesis presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the repair...
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INFLUENCE OF WRONGLY ASSUMED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF RESISTANCE MEASUREMENT BY TECHNICAL METHOD
PublikacjaThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The most commonly used distribution is the rectangular distribution. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of two resistances:...
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Entropy function application within the selection process of diagnostic parameters of marine diesel and gas turbine engines
PublikacjaThe paper presents the method of conducting an analysis of the diagnostic informativeness among the parameters characterizing the observed gas dynamic processes carried out within working spaces of marine diesel and gas turbine engines. An entropy function, as the measure of uncertainty of the identified states' set of the engine unfitness was applied. Having evaluated the diagnostic information the most adequate parameters were...
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Peculiarities of measurement uncertainty evaluation at calibrating a ring gauge
PublikacjaExample S13 from EA-4/02 M:2013 “Calibration of a ring gauge with a nominal diameter of 90 mm” is analyzed. The report uses the kurtosis method and the law of propagation of expanded uncertainty developed by the authors to the expanded uncertainty evaluation. It is shown that the introduction of a coaxiality correction for the ring gauge and the measuring axis of the comparator leads to the need to estimate its standard measurement...
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Estimation of the uncertainty of the LEM CV 3-500 transducers processing function
PublikacjaThe paper presents the methodology for estimating uncertainty of a voltage transducer processing function based on the example of LEM CV 3-500 transducer. The analysis was performed using the method based on the GUM Guide propagation of uncertainty law and the Monte Carlo numerical method. The article also presents a comparative analysis of the results of a voltage measurement evaluation done using the Monte Carlo simulation method,...
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Improving the procedure of probabilistic load testing design of typical bridges based on structural response similarities
PublikacjaThis paper concerns load testing of typical bridge structures performed prior to operation. In-situ tests of a two-span post-tensioned bridge loaded with three vehicles of 38-ton mass each formed the input of this study. On the basis of the results of these measurements, an advanced FEM model of the structure was developed for which the sensitivity analysis was performed for chosen uncertainty sources. Three uncorrelated random...
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Reliable computationally-efficient behavioral modeling of microwave passives using deep learning surrogates in confined domains
PublikacjaThe importance of surrogate modeling techniques has been steadily growing over the recent years in high-frequency electronics, including microwave engineering. Fast metamodels are employed to speedup design processes, especially those conducted at the level of full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulations. The surrogates enable massive system evaluations at nearly EM accuracy and negligible costs, which is invaluable in parameter...
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Effects of full displacement pile installation on the stress and deformation state of surrounding soil: review
PublikacjaSeveral field and model tests have been conducted to investigate the impact of pile installation on bearing capacity. However, little is known about how piles behave during installation, how they interact with the surrounding soil, and how this affects sandy soil properties. This review paper investigates the effect of pile driving on surrounding sandy soil as it compacts sandy soil near to the pile. For this purpose, various related...
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Uncertainty quantification of modal parameter estimates obtained from subspace identification: An experimental validation on a laboratory test of a large-scale wind turbine blade
PublikacjaThe uncertainty afflicting modal parameter estimates stems from e.g., the finite data length, unknown, or partly measured inputs and the choice of the identification algorithm. Quantification of the related errors with the statistical Delta method is a recent tool, useful in many modern modal analysis applications e.g., damage diagnosis, reliability analysis, model calibration. In this paper, the Delta method-based uncertainty...
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Uncertainty estimation of loop impedance measurement determined by the vector method
PublikacjaThis article presents a detailed analysis of uncertainty estimation of loop impedance measurement determined by the vector method. The analysis includes the following estimates: resistance variance, voltage variance and time measurement variance. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the combined standard uncertainty of loop impedance by the vector method. The vector method allows to determine loop impedance based on...
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Determination of the uncertainty of mass flow measurement using the orifice for different values of the Reynolds number
PublikacjaStandard orifice flowmeters are widely used in the chemical and energy industry. Therefore, it is essential to know how accurate the measurements made with these instruments are. The paper presents an estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. The authors will present the influence of ranges of the Reynolds number on the estimated uncertainty, obtained on the basis of simulation and laboratory...
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Recent advances in high-frequency modeling by means of domain confinement and nested kriging
PublikacjaDevelopment of modern high-frequency components and circuits is heavily based on full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulation tools. Some phenomena, although important from the point of view of the system performance, e.g., EM cross-coupling effects, feed radiation in antenna arrays, substrate anisotropy, cannot be adequately accounted for using simpler means such as equivalent network representations. Consequently, the involvement...
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Performance-Driven Surrogate Modeling of High-Frequency Structures
PublikacjaThe development of modern high-frequency structures, including microwave and antenna components, heavily relies on full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulation models. Notwithstanding, EM-driven design entails considerable computational expenses. This is especially troublesome when solving tasks that require massive EM analyzes, parametric optimization and uncertainty quantification be-ing representative examples. The employment of...
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Uncertainty analysis of measuring system for instantaneous power research
PublikacjaThe paper presents a metrological analysis of the measurement system used for diagnosis of induction motor bearings, based on the analysis of the instantaneous power. This system was implemented as a set of devices with dedicated software installed on a PC. A number of measurements for uncertainty estimation was carried out. The results of the measurements are presented in the paper. The results of the aforementioned analysis helped...
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the controland protection systems under uncertainty
PublikacjaThe probabilistic models of the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE)systems, which are proposed in the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 standards, do not cover the uncertainty aspectsof results obtained from these models. The proposed method takes into consideration the sensitivity analysisof probabilistic models of E/E/PE systems as well as the uncertainty of probabilistic results. It uses differentialfactors, which...
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Towards application of uncertainty quantification procedure combined with experimental procedure for assessment of the accuracy of the DEM approach dedicated for granular flow modeling
PublikacjaThere is a high demand for accurate and fast numerical models for dense granular flows found in many industrial applications. Nevertheless, before numerical model can be used its need to be always validated against experimental data. During the validation, it is important to consider how the measurement data sets, as well as the numerical models, are affected by errors and uncertainties. In this study, the uncertainty quantification...