Search results for: PROBABILISTIC METHODS
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Probabilistic concept of defining the situations possible to occur during operation of floating docks
PublicationW artykule zasygnalizowana została możliwość oszacowania bezpieczeństwa doków pływajacych, w wyniku zastosowania teorii procesów semimarkowskich, zarówno w fazie projektowania jak też eksploatacji. Przedstawiono opis formalny sytuacji, jakie mogą zaistnieć podczas funkcjonowania (działania) doków pływających, zarówno budowlanych jak również remontowych. Wyróżniono takie sytuacje jak: normalna, skomplikowana, niebezpieczna, awaryjna...
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Simplified probabilistic analysis of settlement of cyclically loaded soil stratum using point estimate method
PublicationThe paper deals with the probabilistic analysis of settlement of a non-cohesive soil layer subjected to cyclic loading. Originally, the settlement assessment is based on deterministic compaction model which requires integration of a set of differential equations. However, making use of the Bessel functions the settlement of the soil stratum can be calculated by means of simplified algorithm. The compaction model parameters were...
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Reliability assessment of truss towers using Monte Carlo Method, PEM and RSM
PublicationThe paper discusses the reliability assessment of simple random truss structures using three different probabilistic methodologies: the Monte Carlo method, the Point Estimate Method and the Response Surface Method. A benchmark truss structure example is analyzed. A set of numerical calculations of critical load is performed and the results are taken as the basis of advanced probabilistic calculations. Using the samples, numerical...
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Simulation of the number of storm overflows considering changes in precipitation dynamics and the urbanisation of the catchment area: a probabilistic approach
PublicationThis paper presents a probabilistic methodology that allows the study of the interactions between changes in rainfall dynamics and impervious areas in urban catchment on a long- and short-term basis. The proposed probabilistic model predict future storm overflows while taking into account the dynamics of changes in impervious areas and rainfall. In this model, a logistic regression method was used to simulate overflow resulting...
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Reliability assessment of truss towers using Monte Carlo Method, PEM and RSM
PublicationThe paper discusses reliability assessment of simple random truss structures using three different probabilistic methodologies: the Monte Carlo Method (MCM), the Point Estimate Method (PEM) and the Response Surface Method (RSM). A benchmark truss structure and a simplified full–size engineering tower are both analyzed. A set of ultimate load numerical calculations is performed and the results are taken as the basis of advanced...
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Seismic probabilistic assessment of steel and reinforced concrete structures including earthquake-induced pounding
PublicationRecent earthquakes demonstrate that prioritizing the retrofitting of buildings should be of the utmost importance for enhancing the seismic resilience and structural integrity of urban structures. To have a realistic results of the pounding effects in modeling process of retrofitting buildings, the present research provides seismic Probability Factors (PFs), which can be used for estimating collision effects without engaging in...
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Probabilistic assessment of SMRFs with infill masonry walls incorporating nonlinear soil-structure interaction
PublicationInfill Masonry Walls (IMWs) are used in the perimeter of a building to separate the inner and outer space. IMWs may affect the lateral behavior of buildings, while they are different from those partition walls that separate two inner spaces. This study focused on the seismic vulnerability assessment of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames (SMRFs) assuming different placement of IMWs incorporating nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI)....
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A methodology for incorporating human factors in fuzzy-probabilistic modelling and risk analysis of industrial systems
PublicationPraca dotyczy wybranych zagadnień rozmyto-probabilistycznych modelowania złożonych systemów przemysłowych. Do obliczeń związanych z analizą ryzyka stosuje się diagramy wpływu i hierarchiczny proces decyzyjny.
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A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs – A case study for the Gulf of Finland
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A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship–ship collision
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...
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Motion Trajectory Prediction in Warehouse Management Systems: A Systematic Literature Review
PublicationBackground: In the context of Warehouse Management Systems, knowledge related to motion trajectory prediction methods utilizing machine learning techniques seems to be scattered and fragmented. Objective: This study seeks to fill this research gap by using a systematic literature review approach. Methods: Based on the data collected from Google Scholar, a systematic literature review was performed, covering the period from 2016...
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Semantic Analysis and Text Summarization in Socio-Technical Systems
PublicationIn this chapter the authors present the results of the development the methodology for increasing the reliability of the functioning of the Socio-Technical System. The existed methods and algorithms for processing unstructured (textual) information were studied. Taking into account noted above strengths and weaknesses of Discriminant and Probabilistic approaches of Latent Semantic Relations analysis in of the summarization projection...
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Improving the Accuracy in Sentiment Classification in the Light of Modelling the Latent Semantic Relations
PublicationThe research presents the methodology of improving the accuracy in sentiment classification in the light of modelling the latent semantic relations (LSR). The objective of this methodology is to find ways of eliminating the limitations of the discriminant and probabilistic methods for LSR revealing and customizing the sentiment classification process (SCP) to the more accurate recognition of text tonality. This objective was achieved...
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Probabilistic seismic assessment of RC box-girder highway bridges with unequal-height piers subjected to earthquake-induced pounding
PublicationThis paper uses the probabilistic seismic assessment to study the effects of pounding and irregularity on the seismic behavior of typical concrete box-girder bridges with four levels of altitudinal irregularity. To extend the results for all bridges in the same class, uncertainty related to the earthquake, structural geometries, and materials are considered. Pounding is likely to take place in two cases: the first one concerns...
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A probabilistic concept of assessment of amount of noxious substances contained in exhaust gas emitted from self-ignition engines
PublicationPrzedstawiono probabilistyczną koncepcję oceny toksyczności spalin silników o zapłonie samoczynnym. Ocena taka jest istotna, ponieważ bez niej nie jest możliwe określenie walorów proekologicznych różnych środków transportowych z napędem spalinowym, w tym śródlądowych statków pasażerskich. W koncepcji tej uwzględniony został model procesu rozruchu silników o zapłonie samoczynnym. Model ten przedstawiono w formie procesu semimarkowskiego,...
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Probabilistic Assessment of Correlations of Water Levels in Polish Coastal Lakes with Sea Water Level with the Application of Archimedean Copulas
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Sensitivity analysis of simple random beam models by means of Monte Carlo Methods using Variance Reductions Techniques
PublicationA probabilistic sensitivity analysis of two nonlinear bar structures is presented. The analysis is carried out on the basis of the Monte Carlo method. The imperfections of the structures and the applied loads are adapted as random variables. Based on all of the generated input variables, an output response of the system is sought. Afterwards, a coefficient responsible for the structure failure is calculated and the limit state...
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Reliability estimation of underground horizontal fuel tank limit states
PublicationFuel tanks are designed with regard to standard loads and operating conditions. The investigations of the paper show the impact of such factors as tank corrosion and other means on the variation of stress fields and deformation of the underground horizontal tank shell. The introduction of probabilistic methods allows for structural reliability assessment. While the computational time of the entire tank FEM model is high, the preliminary...
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Application of theory of semi-Markov processes to determining distribution of probabilistic process of marine accidents resulting from colission of ships
PublicationIn this paper is presented possible application of the theory of semi-Markov processes to elaborating an eight-state model of the process of occurrence of serviceability state and unserviceability states of sea-going ships making critical manoeuvres during their entering and leaving the ports. In the analysis it was taken into account that sea-going ships are in service for a very long time t (t → ∞). The model was elaborated to...
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Graph security testing
PublicationSet S ⊂ V is called secure set iff ∀ X ⊂ S | N [ X ] ∩ S | ≥ | N ( X ) \ S | [3]. That means that every subset of a secure set has at least as many friends (neighbour vertices in S) as enemies (neighbour vertices outside S) and will be defended in case of attack. Problem of determining if given set is secure is co −NP -complete, there is no efficient algorithm solving it [3]. Property testers are algorithms that distinguish inputs...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio- and Structural Mechanics
PublicationThis thesis presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the repair...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio-and Structural Mechanics
PublicationThis monograph presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the...
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Spatial distribution and correlations among elements in smaller than 75 μm street dust: ecological and probabilistic health risk assessment
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Reliability-Based Stability Analysis of a Baltic Cliff by the Combined Response Surface Method
PublicationA simple, straightforward computational procedure was proposed, incorporating the Response Surface Method (RSM) linked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method and the Point Estimate Method (PEM). PEM samples make it possible to analyse the sensitivity of the cliff’s stability to variation in subsoil parameters and to reduce the number of random variables of the problem. The proposed methods were tested in two cases:...
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Effectiveness of Random Field Approach in Serviceability Limit State Analysis of Strip Foundation
PublicationThis work conducts a probabilistic inquiry on how the variability of the parameter defining soil deformability affects the settlement of the foundation located on the soil. The analysis addresses the random foundation model to relevantly estimate the probability of allowable deflection exceedance. The constitutive model parameter is based either on a single random variable or a random field. The computations incorporate direct...
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Human Factors and Functional Safety Analysis in Designing the Control Rooms of Industrial Hazardous Plants
PublicationIn this work some aspects of human factors and functional safety analysis in designing the control rooms of industrial hazardous plants are presented. The “defence in depth” (D-in-D) concept is outlined. Some designing issues of the alarm system (AS) with regard to human factors to be supported using the human reliability analysis (HRA) are discussed. The AS and decision support system (DSS), when properly designed, would contribute...
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Workshop on Probabilistic Graph Theory
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Modelowanie losowych imperfekcji geometrycznych przestrzennych konstrukcji metalowych
PublicationImperfekcje geometryczne zbiorników, silosów i powłok siatkowych mogą znaczą-co wpłynąć na ich nośność, a więc powinny być one uwzględniane w obliczeniach komputerowych i w procesie projektowania. Wykazano, że przy podstawowych obcią-żeniach, działających na tego typu konstrukcje, tj. podciśnieniu oraz naporu wiatru i śniegu (w przypadku powłok siatkowych), wykazują wyraźne różnice w porównaniu z analogicznymi wynikami dla tych...
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IDENTIFICATION OF DAMAGES OF TRIBOLOGICAL ASSOCIATIONS IN CRANKSHAFT AND PISTON SYSTEMS OF TWO-STROKE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES USED AS MAIN PROPULSION IN SEA-GOING VESSELS AND PROPOSAL OF PROBABILISTIC DESCRIPTION OF LOADS AS CAUSES OF THESE DAMAGES
PublicationThe article discusses damages of essential tribological associations in crankshaft and piston systems of large power two-stroke engines used as main engines, which take place during transport tasks performed by those ships. Difficulties are named which make preventing those damages impossible, despite the fact that the technical state of engines of this type is identified with the aid of complex diagnostic systems making use of...
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Analiza Niezawodności Człowieka w Ramach Funkcji związanych z Bezpieczeństwem w Przykładowej Instalacji
PublicationW analizie bezpieczeństwa funkcjonalnego systemów sterowania i zabezpieczeń należy określić wymagany poziom nienaruszalności bezpieczeństwa SIL w procesie analizy ryzyka, a następnie zweryfikować ten poziom stosując odpowiednie metody modelowania probabilistycznego. Działania człowieka mogą mieć istotny wpływ na realizację funkcji bezpieczeństwa. Wpływ ten ocenia się na podstawie wyników analizy niezawodności człowieka HRA. W niniejszym...
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Optimization of Division and Reconfiguration Locations of the Medium-Voltage Power Grid Based on Forecasting the Level of Load and Generation from Renewable Energy Sources
PublicationThe article addresses challenges in optimizing the operation of medium voltage networks, emphasizing optimizing network division points and selecting the best network configuration for minimizing power and energy losses. It critically reviews recent research on the issue of network configuration optimization. The optimization of the medium voltage power grid reconfiguration process was carried out using known optimization tools....
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Sensitivity analysis based on non-intrusive regression-based polynomial chaos expansion for surgical mesh modelling
PublicationThe modelling of a system containing implants used in ventral hernia repair and human tissue suffers from many uncertainties. Thus, a probabilistic approach is needed. The goal of this study is to define an efficient numerical method to solve non-linear biomechanical models supporting the surgeon in decisions about ventral hernia repair. The model parameters are subject to substantial variability owing to, e.g., abdominal wall...
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Symposium On Combinatorics, Algorithms, Probabilistic and Experimental Methodologies
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Demonstrator testera wbudowanego BIST dla układów w pełni różnicowych
PublicationPrzedstawiono demonstrator testera wbudowanego, przeznaczony do pracy na stanowisku dydaktycznym w laboratorium z przedmiotu Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne. Na stanowisku studenci zapoznają się z technologią BIST (ang. Built-In Self-Test), która jest przykładem wdrożenia strategii projektowania dla testowania.
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A random field-based simulational identification of possible levels of material imperfections of adhesive-bonded joints
PublicationRecently, structural adhesives have become significant in the shaping of structural elements, especially in thin-walled structures, where they replace or supplement traditional connection methods. However, adhesive-bonded joints are highly susceptible to internal structural imperfections due to their application technique and the nature of the adhesive. These material inconsistencies impact the strength parameters and the mechanical...
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The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublicationTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublicationA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the controland protection systems under uncertainty
PublicationThe probabilistic models of the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE)systems, which are proposed in the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 standards, do not cover the uncertainty aspectsof results obtained from these models. The proposed method takes into consideration the sensitivity analysisof probabilistic models of E/E/PE systems as well as the uncertainty of probabilistic results. It uses differentialfactors, which...
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Designing Control and Protection Systems with Regard to Integrated Functional Safety and Cybersecurity Aspects
PublicationThis article addresses current problems of risk analysis and probabilistic modelling for functional safety management in the life cycle of safety-related systems. Two main stages in the lifecycle of these systems are distinguished, namely the design and operation. The risk analysis and probabilistic modelling differ in these stages in view of available knowledge and data. Due to the complexity and uncertainty involved, both qualitative...
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Justification of models of changing project environment for harvesting grain, oilseed and legume crops
PublicationAn analysis of the condition of implementation of projects in agricultural production is carried out. The disadvantages of existing methods and models of planning of the content and time of execution of works in the projects, which mostly do not take into account the changing components of their project environment, are substantiated. The proposed methodology for justifying the models of a changing project environment for harvesting...
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the safety instrumented systems with the uncertainty and security aspects
PublicationSafety and security aspects consist of two different group of functional requirements for the control and protection systems. In the paper it is proposed that the security analysis results can be used as a factor increasing or decreasing the risk level. It concerns a process of determining required safety integrity level of given safety functions. The authors propose a new approach for functional safety risk analysis. In this case...
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Reliability of production machines in the bakery industry – theoretical and practical issues
PublicationThe aim of the article is to present probabilistic models, which were then used to analyze the reliability of production machines in the baking industry. The author conducted research in the period from January 2, 2016 to December 31, 2018 regarding the measurement of reliability of a traditional production system based on a probabilistic concept. Due to the limited scope of the article, reliability calculations for a set of thermo-oil...
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Crack Resistance of Asphalt Concrete Subjected to Environmental Factors
PublicationThe paper presents an analysis of the influence of environmental factors on the cracking susceptibility of asphalt concrete resulting in a change in the durability of asphalt pavement. In order to assess the phenomenon, laboratory tests were carried out taking into account the destructive effects of moisture, freeze-thaw cycle and long-term ageing. The influence of both factors occurring simultaneously was also verified. Due to...
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Selection of main engines for hopper suction dredgers with the use oobability models
PublicationThis paper presents a new original method of selection of main engines for hopper suction dredgers with regard to probabilistic models. It was proposed to use the normal distribution to describe the operational loads of the main receivers. The principles for determination of parameters of load distribution and design power of the main engines were formulated. Lastly, the principles of selection of the size and number of main engines...
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The Point Estimate Method in a Reticulated Shell Reliability Analysis
PublicationThe objective of this paper is to present an application of the point estimate method (PEM) to determine the probabilistic moments for engineering structures. Reliability analysis is illustrated by two examples: an estimation of the critical force in linear elastic buckling analysis and a reticulated shell limit load determinations. Calculations were also made using Monte Carlo method. It has been shown the practical usefulness...
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Structural reliability of overhead power lines by means of Monte Carlo Method and RSM
PublicationThe article discusses the issue of reliability assessment of overhead power lines by means of both Monte Carlo Method and Response Surface Method. The suspension tower OS24 ON150+10 is considered, as the weakest element of the line. A comparison is made between deterministic and probabilistic approaches to wind and icing loading. The PDFs for wind and icing loads are proposed. Reliability is assessed for both critical atmospheric...
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Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne 2022/2023
e-Learning Courses{mlang en} 1. Introduction/Guide for the use of the International System of Units2. Rules and style conventions for expressing values of quantities.3. The role of measurement uncertainty in conformity assessment. 4. Probabilistic model for measurement processes, estimation theory5. Analog-digital conversion methods6. Selected structures of classical analog-digital converters7. New techniques of analog-digital conversion: sigma-delta...
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Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne 2023/2024
e-Learning Courses{mlang en} 1. Introduction/Guide for the use of the International System of Units2. Rules and style conventions for expressing values of quantities.3. The role of measurement uncertainty in conformity assessment. 4. Probabilistic model for measurement processes, estimation theory5. Analog-digital conversion methods6. Selected structures of classical analog-digital converters7. New techniques of analog-digital conversion: sigma-delta...
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Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne 2024/2025
e-Learning Courses{mlang en} 1. Introduction/Guide for the use of the International System of Units2. Rules and style conventions for expressing values of quantities.3. The role of measurement uncertainty in conformity assessment. 4. Probabilistic model for measurement processes, estimation theory5. Analog-digital conversion methods6. Selected structures of classical analog-digital converters7. New techniques of analog-digital conversion: sigma-delta...