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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: PROBABILISTIC MODELS
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The Point Estimate Method in a Reticulated Shell Reliability Analysis
PublikacjaThe objective of this paper is to present an application of the point estimate method (PEM) to determine the probabilistic moments for engineering structures. Reliability analysis is illustrated by two examples: an estimation of the critical force in linear elastic buckling analysis and a reticulated shell limit load determinations. Calculations were also made using Monte Carlo method. It has been shown the practical usefulness...
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How to apply the probabilistic model of measurement processes successfully
PublikacjaApplicational aspects of probabilistic model of measurement processes, proposed by G.B. Rossi, are considered. The main idea of the model - using of Bayes-Laplace postulate for solution of inverse probability problem, is substituted by Fisher's concept of the likelihood function, expressed in the data translated format. This approach gives a clear-sighted solution of inverse probability. Some recommendations for application of...
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Effectiveness of Random Field Approach in Serviceability Limit State Analysis of Strip Foundation
PublikacjaThis work conducts a probabilistic inquiry on how the variability of the parameter defining soil deformability affects the settlement of the foundation located on the soil. The analysis addresses the random foundation model to relevantly estimate the probability of allowable deflection exceedance. The constitutive model parameter is based either on a single random variable or a random field. The computations incorporate direct...
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Structural reliability of overhead power lines by means of Monte Carlo Method and RSM
PublikacjaThe article discusses the issue of reliability assessment of overhead power lines by means of both Monte Carlo Method and Response Surface Method. The suspension tower OS24 ON150+10 is considered, as the weakest element of the line. A comparison is made between deterministic and probabilistic approaches to wind and icing loading. The PDFs for wind and icing loads are proposed. Reliability is assessed for both critical atmospheric...
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Probabilistic Approach to Precipitation-Runoff Relation in a Mountain Catchment: A Case Study of the Kłodzka Valley in Poland
PublikacjaOn the basis of daily precipitation and discharges recorded in 1974–2013 relations between precipitation and runoff in the Kłodzka Valley (KV) in south-western Poland were analyzed. The degree of synchronicity between them was determined using the bivariate Archimedean copulas. This study aims at identifying and then describe in a probabilistic way the precipitation and runoff relations in the area playing an important role...
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Reliability estimation of underground horizontal fuel tank limit states
PublikacjaFuel tanks are designed with regard to standard loads and operating conditions. The investigations of the paper show the impact of such factors as tank corrosion and other means on the variation of stress fields and deformation of the underground horizontal tank shell. The introduction of probabilistic methods allows for structural reliability assessment. While the computational time of the entire tank FEM model is high, the preliminary...
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Probabilistic analysis of settlements under a pile foundation of a road bridge pylon
PublikacjaThe paper addresses the reliability change of a road bridge pile foundation due to the unpredictable increase of settlements in time. The analysis is based on the Rędziński Bridge in Wrocław, Poland, its design assumptions, and monitoring results. The bridge foundation rests on a multi-layered subsoil assumed random. The Finite Element model of the subgrade is generated in ZSoil® software. To simplify the probabilistic approach,...
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Reliability-Based Stability Analysis of a Baltic Cliff by the Combined Response Surface Method
PublikacjaA simple, straightforward computational procedure was proposed, incorporating the Response Surface Method (RSM) linked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method and the Point Estimate Method (PEM). PEM samples make it possible to analyse the sensitivity of the cliff’s stability to variation in subsoil parameters and to reduce the number of random variables of the problem. The proposed methods were tested in two cases:...
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Simplified probabilistic analysis of settlement of cyclically loaded soil stratum using point estimate method
PublikacjaThe paper deals with the probabilistic analysis of settlement of a non-cohesive soil layer subjected to cyclic loading. Originally, the settlement assessment is based on deterministic compaction model which requires integration of a set of differential equations. However, making use of the Bessel functions the settlement of the soil stratum can be calculated by means of simplified algorithm. The compaction model parameters were...
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Risk Analysis by a Probabilistic Model of the Measurement Process
PublikacjaThe aim of the article is presentation of the testing methodology and results of examination the probabilistic model of the measurement process. The case study concerns the determination of the risk of an incorrect decision in the assessment of the compliance of products by measurement. Measurand is characterized by the generalized Rayleigh distribution. The model of the meas-urement process was tested in parallel mode by six risk...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of limit states of structures. The Monte Carlo simulation
PublikacjaDesign sensitivity deals with the variation of structural response, implicitly dependent on the design variables of the problem. An attempt is made to implement probabilistic notation in engineering sensitivity analysis. The procedure to implement the sensitivity of a structural limit state to a given basic variable is described in the paper - its main idea, depicted by a flowchart and numerical examples of engineering analysis....
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Application of algorithms for reasoning from imperfect knowledge in it evaluation environment
PublikacjaThe paper describes concept of building multi-agent system dedicated for information technology evaluation or selection for IT enterprises management (IT_MAS). Authors present the model of Knowledge Processing Environment, which is one of main components of the solution. Either facts or rules will be based on IT specialists' experience. However, knowledge which is being acquisited from IT domain is mostly imperfect - uncertain...
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The point estimate method in a reticulated shell reliability analysis
PublikacjaThe objective of this paper is to present an application of the point estimate method (PEM) that can determine the probabilistic moments for engineering structures. The method is reasonably robust and adequately accurate for a wide range of practical problems. It is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials. The main advantage of this method is that, unlike FORM or SORM, it is not necessary to carry...
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Optimizing Construction Engineering Management Using Metaheuristic Methods and Bayesian Networks
PublikacjaThe construction of buildings invariably involves time and costs, and disruptions impact ongoing construction projects. Crisis situations in management strategies, structural confusion, and finan-cial miscalculations often arise due to misguided decision-making. This article proposes a method that combines the learning of Bayesian Networks and heuristic techniques to optimize deci-sion-making processes in construction scheduling....
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Development of Local IDF-formula Using Controlled Random Search Method for Global Optimization
PublikacjaThe aim of the study is to present the effective and relatively simple empirical approach to rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency-formulas development, based on Controlled Random Search (CRS) for global optimization. The approach is mainly dedicated to the cases in which the commonly used IDF-relationships do not provide satisfactory fit between simulations and observations, and more complex formulas with higher number of parameters...
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Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?
PublikacjaWe compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire...
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Brief Literature Review and Classification System of Reliability Methods for Evaluating the Stability of Earth Slopes
PublikacjaThe issue of slope stability is one of the most important and yet most difficult geotechnical problems. Assessing slope stability is particularly difficult because of the many uncertainties involved in the process. To take these uncertainties into account, probabilistic methods are used, and the reliability approach is adopted. There are many methods for reliability assessment of earth slope stability. However, there is no system...
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Motion Trajectory Prediction in Warehouse Management Systems: A Systematic Literature Review
PublikacjaBackground: In the context of Warehouse Management Systems, knowledge related to motion trajectory prediction methods utilizing machine learning techniques seems to be scattered and fragmented. Objective: This study seeks to fill this research gap by using a systematic literature review approach. Methods: Based on the data collected from Google Scholar, a systematic literature review was performed, covering the period from 2016...
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Basic sensitivity analysis of a telecommunication tower complementing standard reinforcement design process
PublikacjaThis paper presents straightforward sensitivity assessment of a telecommunication tower. The analysis is set toidentify the elements of the tower which may be reinforced with the greatest structural advantage. As current expertopin ions on structural redesign of similar structures due to a planned addition of extra loads are mainly based ondeterministic computations or engineering intuition,...
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On reliability assessment of ship machinery system in different autonomy degree; A Bayesian-based approach
PublikacjaAnalyzing the reliability of autonomous ships has recently attracted attention mainly due to epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) integrated with automatic operations in the maritime sector. The advent of new random failures with unrecognized failure patterns in autonomous ship operations requires a comprehensive reliability assessment specifically aiming at estimating the time in which the ship can be trusted to be left unattended....
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A framework for onboard assessment and monitoring of flooding risk due to open watertight doors for passenger ships
PublikacjaPost-accident safety of ships is governed by damage stability, affected by watertight subdivisions which limit accidental flooding. This is important for passenger ships with watertight doors (WTDs) often fitted in the bulkheads. Awareness of the ship flooding risk due to open WTDs and the conditions under which the associated risk level changes are prerequisites for proactive risk mitigation. Accident risk is often expressed as...
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Incorporating installation effects into the probability analysis of controlled modulus columns
PublikacjaThis technical report presents the probabilistic analysis which integrates the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with random field theory to model the load–displacement behavior of Controlled Modulus Columns (CMCs) in overconsolidated Poznań clay. Presented study focuses on the practical aspects of statistical analysis of geotechnical data, numerical model development, and results evaluation. Variability and spatial distribution of...
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Diagnostic Model of Crankshaft Seals
PublikacjaT he paper presents a research stand being a diagnostic model of radial lip seals used, among others, on crankshafts of piston combustion engines in order to identify the correctness of their operation. The possibility of determining the technical condition of lip seals on the basis of the proposed coefficient of correctness of operation has been described. T he basic features of seals influencing their correctness of...
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Double-Blind Reputation vs. Intelligent Fake VIP Attacks in Cloud-Assisted Interactions
PublikacjaWe consider a generic model of Client-Server interactions in the presence of Sender and Relay, conceptual agents acting on behalf of Client and Server, respectively, and modeling cloud service providers in the envisaged "QoS as a Service paradigm". Client generates objects which Sender tags with demanded QoS level, whereas Relay assigns the QoS level to be provided at Server. To verify an object's right to a QoS level, Relay detects...
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Defending against Fake VIP in Scant-Transparency Information Systems with QoS Differentiation
PublikacjaIn client-server information systems with quality of service (QoS) differentiation, Client may deplete Server’s resources by demanding unduly high QoS level. Such QoS abuse has eluded systematic treatment; known defenses using Client authorization, payments, or service request inspection prior to QoS assignment, are heuristic and environment-specific. We offer a game-theoretic approach on the premise that a service request is occasionally...
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Contextual Knowledge to Enhance Workplace Hazard Recognition and Interpretation in a Cognitive Vision Platform
PublikacjaThe combination of vision and sensor data together with the resulting necessity for formal representations builds a central component of an autonomous Cyber Physical System for detection and tracking of laborers in workplaces environments. This system must be adaptable and perceive the environment as automatically as possible, performing in a variety of plants and scenes without the necessity of recoding the application for each...
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The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublikacjaTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
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Problemy zarządzania bezpieczeństwem obiektu przemysłowego podwyższonego ryzyka
PublikacjaW rozdziale przedstawiono wybrane zagadnienia dotyczące zarządzania bezpieczeństwem w zautomatyzowanym złożonym obiekcie podwyższonego ryzyka. Pokazano, że ryzyko strat można istotnie ograniczyć stosując odpowiednie rozwiązania techniczne w postaci warstwowego systemu zabezpieczeń, który obejmuje podstawowy system sterowania procesem, człowieka-operatora i system automatyki zabezpieczeniowej. Podkreślono znaczenie właściwego zaprojektowania...
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Probabilistic seismic assessment of RC box-girder highway bridges with unequal-height piers subjected to earthquake-induced pounding
PublikacjaThis paper uses the probabilistic seismic assessment to study the effects of pounding and irregularity on the seismic behavior of typical concrete box-girder bridges with four levels of altitudinal irregularity. To extend the results for all bridges in the same class, uncertainty related to the earthquake, structural geometries, and materials are considered. Pounding is likely to take place in two cases: the first one concerns...
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The Employment of Ukrainians as an Opportunity to Fill the Labour Market in Poland – Selected Issues
PublikacjaThe labour market in Poland has undergone signifi cant transformations over the past two decades. The observed changes have been infl uenced by various factors related to, among other things, the possibility of free movement of the population resulting from membership of EU structures, demographic changes, technological changes, and the automation and robotisation of production processes. Demographic change is becoming a signifi...
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Managing safety of industrial hazardous installations with emphasis on the control systems, interfaces and human factors
PublikacjaIn the paper a procedure for the layer of protection analysis (LOPA) as a tool to evaluate the risk of accident scenarios occurrence in hazardous installations is outlined. In such installations several protection layers exist. Human operator performance in each layer is unavoidable, but the role and tasks are different and depend on the context of situation. Based on suggestions form literature (EEMUA, CREAM) and own proposals...
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Functional safety analysis including human factors
PublikacjaThe article addresses selected aspects of human factors that should be taken into account during the design of safety-related functions for a complex hazardous installation and its protections. In such installations the layer of protection analysis (LOPA) methodology is often used for simplified risk analysis based on defined accident scenarios. To control the risk the safety instrumented functions (SIFs) are identified and their...
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Crack Resistance of Asphalt Concrete Subjected to Environmental Factors
PublikacjaThe paper presents an analysis of the influence of environmental factors on the cracking susceptibility of asphalt concrete resulting in a change in the durability of asphalt pavement. In order to assess the phenomenon, laboratory tests were carried out taking into account the destructive effects of moisture, freeze-thaw cycle and long-term ageing. The influence of both factors occurring simultaneously was also verified. Due to...