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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF ASSESSMENT PROCESS
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Probabilistic prognosis of cliffslide along Baltic Sea coast in Poland.
PublikacjaAnaliza stateczności wybrzeży klifowych metodą probabilistyczną. Określnie stref zagrożonych utratą stateczności.
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PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF A SPACE TRUSS BY MEANS OF A MULTIDIMENSIONAL VARIABLE DESCRIPTION
PublikacjaThe objective of this paper is to present a variant of the point estimate method (PEM) to determine mean values and standard deviations of limit loads of engineering structures. This approach is illustrated by limit state analysis of a space truss, considering geometric and material imperfections. The calculations were performed for different random models, so the influence of random parameters on the limit load of the truss can...
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Probabilistic estimation of diverse soil condition impact on vertical axis tank deformation
PublikacjaThe calculations of fuel tanks should take into account the geometric imperfections of the structure as well as the variability of the material parameters of the foundation. The deformation of the tank shell can have a significant impact on the limit state of the structure and its operating conditions. The paper presents a probabilistic analysis of a vertical-axis, floating-roof cylindrical shell of a tank with a capacity of 50000...
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Probabilistic approach of the Upper and Middle Odra basin daily rainfall modeling
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Probabilistic limit state analysis of framed structures. The Monte Carlo simulation.
PublikacjaW pracy opisano koncepcję rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa stanu granicznego konstrukcji. Koncepcja ta oparta jest na problemowo zorientowanej procedurze symulacyjnej Monte Carlo. Niezawodnosć lub prawdopodobieństwo awarii układu oblicza się na podstawie rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa stanu granicznego.
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Probabilistic limit state analysis of framed structures. The Monte Carlo simulation.
PublikacjaW pracy opisana jest koncepcja rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa stanu granicznego konstrukcji, oparta na specjalnej procedurze symulacyjnej Monte Carlo. Główną ideę stanowi obliczenie mnożnika obciażenia granicznego w każdym kroku symulacyjnym. Niezawodnosć lub prawdopodobieństwo awarii konstrukcji sa charakterystykami rozkładu prawdopopdobieństwa stanu granicznego. Szczegółowo opisano dwa warianty symulacji.
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The Role of Dopaminergic Genes in Probabilistic Reinforcement Learning in Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders
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Using Probabilistic Availability Measures for Predicting Targeted Attacks on Network Nodes
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Network Protection Against Node Attacks Based on Probabilistic Availability Measures
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Statistic and probabilistic measures of diagnosis likelohood on the state of self-ignition combustion engines
PublikacjaW artykule zaproponowano, aby wiarygodność diagnozy o stanie technicznym silników o zapłonie samoczynnym była rozpatrywana jako losowa cecha tej diagnozy. Wykazano możliwość oceny wiarygodności diagnozy za pomocą liczb rzeczywistych z przedziału [0, 1]. Uzasadniono potrzebę rozróżniania wiarygodności diagnozy i trafności diagnozy. Wyprowadzono wzór na prawdopodobieństwo sformułowania prawidłowej diagnozy jako miary wiarygodności...
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Probabilistic Sequence Mining – Evaluation and Extension of ProMFS Algorithm for Real-Time Problems
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Risk characterisation of the required index R in the new probabilistic rules for damage stability
PublikacjaWymagany wskaźnik podziału grodziowego R jest miarą bezpieczeństwa statku w wypadku kolizji. Zwykle wyznacza się go w oparciu o wskaźniki dla wybranych, istniejących statków. W pracy podano jak ustalić ten wskaźnik w oparciu o dane dotyczące kolizji (wypadkowości) statków.
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Probabilistic concept of defining the situations possible to occur during operation of floating docks
PublikacjaW artykule zasygnalizowana została możliwość oszacowania bezpieczeństwa doków pływajacych, w wyniku zastosowania teorii procesów semimarkowskich, zarówno w fazie projektowania jak też eksploatacji. Przedstawiono opis formalny sytuacji, jakie mogą zaistnieć podczas funkcjonowania (działania) doków pływających, zarówno budowlanych jak również remontowych. Wyróżniono takie sytuacje jak: normalna, skomplikowana, niebezpieczna, awaryjna...
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Probabilistic Approach to Precipitation-Runoff Relation in a Mountain Catchment: A Case Study of the Kłodzka Valley in Poland
PublikacjaOn the basis of daily precipitation and discharges recorded in 1974–2013 relations between precipitation and runoff in the Kłodzka Valley (KV) in south-western Poland were analyzed. The degree of synchronicity between them was determined using the bivariate Archimedean copulas. This study aims at identifying and then describe in a probabilistic way the precipitation and runoff relations in the area playing an important role...
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The Algorithm of Modelling and Analysis of Latent Semantic Relations: Linear Algebra vs. Probabilistic Topic Models
PublikacjaThis paper presents the algorithm of modelling and analysis of Latent Semantic Relations inside the argumentative type of documents collection. The novelty of the algorithm consists in using a systematic approach: in the combination of the probabilistic Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Linear Algebra based Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) methods; in considering each document as a complex of topics, defined on the basis of separate...
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A methodology for incorporating human factors in fuzzy-probabilistic modelling and risk analysis of industrial systems
PublikacjaPraca dotyczy wybranych zagadnień rozmyto-probabilistycznych modelowania złożonych systemów przemysłowych. Do obliczeń związanych z analizą ryzyka stosuje się diagramy wpływu i hierarchiczny proces decyzyjny.
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Designing Control and Protection Systems with Regard to Integrated Functional Safety and Cybersecurity Aspects
PublikacjaThis article addresses current problems of risk analysis and probabilistic modelling for functional safety management in the life cycle of safety-related systems. Two main stages in the lifecycle of these systems are distinguished, namely the design and operation. The risk analysis and probabilistic modelling differ in these stages in view of available knowledge and data. Due to the complexity and uncertainty involved, both qualitative...
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Reliability estimation of underground horizontal fuel tank limit states
PublikacjaFuel tanks are designed with regard to standard loads and operating conditions. The investigations of the paper show the impact of such factors as tank corrosion and other means on the variation of stress fields and deformation of the underground horizontal tank shell. The introduction of probabilistic methods allows for structural reliability assessment. While the computational time of the entire tank FEM model is high, the preliminary...
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Kazimierz Darowicki prof. dr hab. inż.
OsobyStudia wyższe ukończyłem w czerwcu 1981 roku po zdaniu egzaminu dyplomowego i obronie pracy magisterskiej. Opiekunem pracy magisterskiej był dr hab. inż. Tadeusz Szauer. W roku 1991, 27 listopada uzyskałem stopień naukowy broniąc pracę doktorską zatytułowaną „Symulacyjna i korelacyjna analiza widm immitancyjnych inhibitowanej reakcji elektrodowej”. Promotorem pracy był prof. dr hab. inż. Józef Kubicki (Wydział Chemiczny...
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Relationship between Visibility, Air Pollution Index and Annual Mortality Rate in Association with the Occurrence of Rainfall—A Probabilistic Approach
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Reliability assessment of truss towers using Monte Carlo Method, PEM and RSM
PublikacjaThe paper discusses the reliability assessment of simple random truss structures using three different probabilistic methodologies: the Monte Carlo method, the Point Estimate Method and the Response Surface Method. A benchmark truss structure example is analyzed. A set of numerical calculations of critical load is performed and the results are taken as the basis of advanced probabilistic calculations. Using the samples, numerical...
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Reliability assessment of truss towers using Monte Carlo Method, PEM and RSM
PublikacjaThe paper discusses reliability assessment of simple random truss structures using three different probabilistic methodologies: the Monte Carlo Method (MCM), the Point Estimate Method (PEM) and the Response Surface Method (RSM). A benchmark truss structure and a simplified full–size engineering tower are both analyzed. A set of ultimate load numerical calculations is performed and the results are taken as the basis of advanced...
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the controland protection systems under uncertainty
PublikacjaThe probabilistic models of the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE)systems, which are proposed in the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 standards, do not cover the uncertainty aspectsof results obtained from these models. The proposed method takes into consideration the sensitivity analysisof probabilistic models of E/E/PE systems as well as the uncertainty of probabilistic results. It uses differentialfactors, which...
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Effectiveness of Random Field Approach in Serviceability Limit State Analysis of Strip Foundation
PublikacjaThis work conducts a probabilistic inquiry on how the variability of the parameter defining soil deformability affects the settlement of the foundation located on the soil. The analysis addresses the random foundation model to relevantly estimate the probability of allowable deflection exceedance. The constitutive model parameter is based either on a single random variable or a random field. The computations incorporate direct...
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Structural reliability of overhead power lines by means of Monte Carlo Method and RSM
PublikacjaThe article discusses the issue of reliability assessment of overhead power lines by means of both Monte Carlo Method and Response Surface Method. The suspension tower OS24 ON150+10 is considered, as the weakest element of the line. A comparison is made between deterministic and probabilistic approaches to wind and icing loading. The PDFs for wind and icing loads are proposed. Reliability is assessed for both critical atmospheric...
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Brief Literature Review and Classification System of Reliability Methods for Evaluating the Stability of Earth Slopes
PublikacjaThe issue of slope stability is one of the most important and yet most difficult geotechnical problems. Assessing slope stability is particularly difficult because of the many uncertainties involved in the process. To take these uncertainties into account, probabilistic methods are used, and the reliability approach is adopted. There are many methods for reliability assessment of earth slope stability. However, there is no system...
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The Effect of the Selection of Three-Dimensional Random Numerical Soil Models on Strip Foundation Settlements
PublikacjaThis paper delivers a probabilistic attempt to prove that the selection of a random three-dimensional finite element (FE) model of a subsoil affects the computed settlements. Parametricanalysis of a random soil block is conducted, assuming a variable subsoil Young’s modulus inparticular finite elements. The modulus is represented by a random field or different-sized setsof random variables; in both cases, the same truncated...
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Analiza Niezawodności Człowieka w Ramach Funkcji związanych z Bezpieczeństwem w Przykładowej Instalacji
PublikacjaW analizie bezpieczeństwa funkcjonalnego systemów sterowania i zabezpieczeń należy określić wymagany poziom nienaruszalności bezpieczeństwa SIL w procesie analizy ryzyka, a następnie zweryfikować ten poziom stosując odpowiednie metody modelowania probabilistycznego. Działania człowieka mogą mieć istotny wpływ na realizację funkcji bezpieczeństwa. Wpływ ten ocenia się na podstawie wyników analizy niezawodności człowieka HRA. W niniejszym...
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Demonstrator testera wbudowanego BIST dla układów w pełni różnicowych
PublikacjaPrzedstawiono demonstrator testera wbudowanego, przeznaczony do pracy na stanowisku dydaktycznym w laboratorium z przedmiotu Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne. Na stanowisku studenci zapoznają się z technologią BIST (ang. Built-In Self-Test), która jest przykładem wdrożenia strategii projektowania dla testowania.
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IDENTIFICATION OF DAMAGES OF TRIBOLOGICAL ASSOCIATIONS IN CRANKSHAFT AND PISTON SYSTEMS OF TWO-STROKE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES USED AS MAIN PROPULSION IN SEA-GOING VESSELS AND PROPOSAL OF PROBABILISTIC DESCRIPTION OF LOADS AS CAUSES OF THESE DAMAGES
PublikacjaThe article discusses damages of essential tribological associations in crankshaft and piston systems of large power two-stroke engines used as main engines, which take place during transport tasks performed by those ships. Difficulties are named which make preventing those damages impossible, despite the fact that the technical state of engines of this type is identified with the aid of complex diagnostic systems making use of...
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Semantic Analysis and Text Summarization in Socio-Technical Systems
PublikacjaIn this chapter the authors present the results of the development the methodology for increasing the reliability of the functioning of the Socio-Technical System. The existed methods and algorithms for processing unstructured (textual) information were studied. Taking into account noted above strengths and weaknesses of Discriminant and Probabilistic approaches of Latent Semantic Relations analysis in of the summarization projection...
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Human Factors and Functional Safety Analysis in Designing the Control Rooms of Industrial Hazardous Plants
PublikacjaIn this work some aspects of human factors and functional safety analysis in designing the control rooms of industrial hazardous plants are presented. The “defence in depth” (D-in-D) concept is outlined. Some designing issues of the alarm system (AS) with regard to human factors to be supported using the human reliability analysis (HRA) are discussed. The AS and decision support system (DSS), when properly designed, would contribute...
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Impact Assessment of Electric Vehicles Integration and Optimal Charging Schemes Under Uncertainty: A Case Study of Qatar
PublikacjaThe integration of electric vehicles (EVs) is rapidly growing compared to conventional vehicles in Qatar. To assess how these electric vehicles will impact Qatar’s distribution network, it is necessary to accurately model EV loads. However, EV loads exhibit uncertainties due to driving behaviour in charging time, state of charge (SOC), number of trips, and distance travelled. This necessitates the development of a probabilistic...
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Graph security testing
PublikacjaSet S ⊂ V is called secure set iff ∀ X ⊂ S | N [ X ] ∩ S | ≥ | N ( X ) \ S | [3]. That means that every subset of a secure set has at least as many friends (neighbour vertices in S) as enemies (neighbour vertices outside S) and will be defended in case of attack. Problem of determining if given set is secure is co −NP -complete, there is no efficient algorithm solving it [3]. Property testers are algorithms that distinguish inputs...
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Improving the Accuracy in Sentiment Classification in the Light of Modelling the Latent Semantic Relations
PublikacjaThe research presents the methodology of improving the accuracy in sentiment classification in the light of modelling the latent semantic relations (LSR). The objective of this methodology is to find ways of eliminating the limitations of the discriminant and probabilistic methods for LSR revealing and customizing the sentiment classification process (SCP) to the more accurate recognition of text tonality. This objective was achieved...
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Metoda TrustCritic oceny wiarygodności sklepów internetowych
PublikacjaW artykule przedstawiono metodę oceny wiarygodności sklepów internetowych TrustCritic. Powszechnie występujące nadużycia w handlu elektronicznym sprawiają, że zaufanie do przedsiębiorcy staje się kluczowym czynnikiem decyzji konsumentów. Przedsiębiorca narażony jest na niezgodność z prawem, utratę wizerunku i klientów. Artykuł omawia problematykę nadużyć w sferze e-biznesu oraz proponuje wielokryterialny model oceny sklepu internetowego,...
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Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Symbolic Polyphonic Pitch Modeling
PublikacjaSymbolic pitch modeling is a way of incorporating knowledge about relations between pitches into the process of an- alyzing musical information or signals. In this paper, we propose a family of probabilistic symbolic polyphonic pitch models, which account for both the “horizontal” and the “vertical” pitch struc- ture. These models are formulated as linear or log-linear interpo- lations of up to fi ve sub-models, each of which is...
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Teoria zbiorów rozmytych w zarządzaniu ryzykiem jako utylitarne narzędzie systemu zarządzania jakością
PublikacjaDziałalność przedsiębiorstwa wiąże się z potrzebą analizowania ryzyka oddziałującego na procesy firmy. Norma PN-EN ISO 9001:2015 dokonuje identyfikacji czynników ryzyka i ich wpływu na jakość wyrobu. W szacowaniu ryzyka punktowe oceny wyrażające subiektywne opinie zastępowane są coraz częściej formalnym zapisem niepewności. Artykuł ukazuje zastosowanie rozmytego systemu wnioskującego w procesie zarządzania ryzykiem, umożliwiającego...
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Optimization of Division and Reconfiguration Locations of the Medium-Voltage Power Grid Based on Forecasting the Level of Load and Generation from Renewable Energy Sources
PublikacjaThe article addresses challenges in optimizing the operation of medium voltage networks, emphasizing optimizing network division points and selecting the best network configuration for minimizing power and energy losses. It critically reviews recent research on the issue of network configuration optimization. The optimization of the medium voltage power grid reconfiguration process was carried out using known optimization tools....
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The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublikacjaTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
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Average Size of a Suffix Tree for Markov Sources
PublikacjaWe study a suffix tree built from a sequence generated by a Markovian source. Such sources are more realistic probabilistic models for text generation, data compression, molecular applications, and so forth. We prove that the average size of such a suffix tree is asymptotically equivalent to the average size of a trie built over n independentsequences from the same Markovian source. This equivalenceis only known for memoryless...
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Basic sensitivity analysis of a telecommunication tower complementing standard reinforcement design process
PublikacjaThis paper presents straightforward sensitivity assessment of a telecommunication tower. The analysis is set toidentify the elements of the tower which may be reinforced with the greatest structural advantage. As current expertopin ions on structural redesign of similar structures due to a planned addition of extra loads are mainly based ondeterministic computations or engineering intuition,...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio-and Structural Mechanics
PublikacjaThis monograph presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio- and Structural Mechanics
PublikacjaThis thesis presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the repair...
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Tworzenie modelu pojęciowego dla zarządzania ryzykiem na przykładzie procesu laminowania w stoczni jachtowej
PublikacjaCelem artykułu jest zaproponowanie modelu pojęciowego normalizującego kryteria oceny ryzyka w systemie zarządzania jakością w stoczni jachtowej. Zamiarem jest przeprowadzenie analizy danych, pozwalającej wytyczyć zbiory o wysokim, średnim i niskim poziomie istotności dla wszystkich błędów powstających w procesie laminowania. W artykule skoncentrowano się na najważniejszych pojęciach związanych z ryzykiem i kryteriami jego oceny....
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Incorporating installation effects into the probability analysis of controlled modulus columns
PublikacjaThis technical report presents the probabilistic analysis which integrates the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with random field theory to model the load–displacement behavior of Controlled Modulus Columns (CMCs) in overconsolidated Poznań clay. Presented study focuses on the practical aspects of statistical analysis of geotechnical data, numerical model development, and results evaluation. Variability and spatial distribution of...
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Methodological issues of functional safety and reliability assessment of critical systems in industrial hazardous plants
PublikacjaThe aim of this article is to identify and discuss some methodological issues that are of interest among functional safety specialists and experts after publication of the second edition of international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, including the design and implementing the safety-related functions of higher safety integrity levels and protection layers. The basic role of safety-related systems is to reduce effectively and...
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Justification of models of changing project environment for harvesting grain, oilseed and legume crops
PublikacjaAn analysis of the condition of implementation of projects in agricultural production is carried out. The disadvantages of existing methods and models of planning of the content and time of execution of works in the projects, which mostly do not take into account the changing components of their project environment, are substantiated. The proposed methodology for justifying the models of a changing project environment for harvesting...
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Adaptive Method for Modeling of Temporal Dependencies between Fields of Vision in Multi-Camera Surveillance Systems
PublikacjaA method of modeling the time of object transition between given pairs of cameras based on the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is proposed in this article. Temporal dependencies modeling is a part of object re-identification based on the multi-camera experimental framework. The previously utilized Expectation-Maximization (EM) approach, requiring setting the number of mixtures arbitrarily as an input parameter, was extended with the...
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On reliability assessment of ship machinery system in different autonomy degree; A Bayesian-based approach
PublikacjaAnalyzing the reliability of autonomous ships has recently attracted attention mainly due to epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) integrated with automatic operations in the maritime sector. The advent of new random failures with unrecognized failure patterns in autonomous ship operations requires a comprehensive reliability assessment specifically aiming at estimating the time in which the ship can be trusted to be left unattended....