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Search results for: numerical weather prediction
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Numerical weather prediction - data fusion to GIS systems and potential applications
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Operational Enhancement of Numerical Weather Prediction with Data from Real-time Satellite Images
PublicationNumerical weather prediction (NWP) is a rapidly expanding field of science, which is related to meteorology, remote sensing and computer science. Authors present methods of enhancing WRF EMS (Weather Research and Forecast Environmental Modeling System) weather prediction system using data from satellites equipped with AMSU sensor (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit). The data is acquired with Department of Geoinformatics’ ground...
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Geographic Information System for Flood Hazard Analysis and Early Warning Using Numerical Weather Predictions
PublicationFloods are a phenomenon which causes significant losses of lives as well as property damage, which in turn severely impact the local economy. The nature of a flooding has been well researched, and several methods of flood hazard simulation have been established over the last decades. The current legislation in the European Union requires the Member States to create, maintain and update flood risk and hazard maps, as well as identify...
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Prediction of consumer electricity needs based on Internet weather forecasts
PublicationElectrical energy is considered both as an important driver for producing and transporting goods in companies, as well as a good in itself which requires planning and management for generating and delivering it to consumers in proper time and amounts. Weather information can be considered to convey part of the data on energy delivery needs of consumers. Free meteorological data sources on the Web do not offer consistent data to...
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numerical prediction of vortex generated by hydrofoil
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono wyniki obliczeń programami Fluent i Comet dla płata śruby napędowej. Pola prędkości oraz wirowość za płatem porównano z wynikami pomiarów (LDA- Laser Doppler Anemometry) w tunelu kawitacyjnym Centrum Techik Okrętowych (CTO). Przedstawiono wpływ adaptacji siatki wg różnych kryteriów (lokalnej wirowości lub prędkości) na zgodność wyników obliczeń z danymi eksperymentalnymi.
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Prediction of Weld Deformations by Numerical Methods - Review
PublicationThe welding process is the basic technique of joining in the shipbuilding industry. This method generates welding distortions that cause a lot of problems during the manufacturing process due to both the time and cost of straightening as well as their influence on later stages of production. Proper preparation of welding processes plays a growing role in the shipbuilding industry and the development of calculating tools is being...
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Ship weather routing optimization with dynamic constraints based on reliable synchronous roll prediction
PublicationShip routing process taking into account weather conditions is a constrained multi-objective optimization problem and it should consider various optimization criteria and constraints. Formulation of a stability-related, dynamic route optimization constraint is presented in this paper. One of the key objectives of a cross ocean sailing is finding a compromise between ship safety and economics of operation. This compromise should...
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NUMERICAL ESTIMATION OF HULL HYDRODYNAMIC DERIVATIVES IN SHIP MANOUVERING PREDICTION
PublicationOperating in crowded waterways pose a risk of accidents and disasters due to maneuvering limitations of the ship. In order to predict ship’s maneuvering characteristics at the design stage, model tests are often executed as the most accurate prediction tool. Two approaches can be distinguished here: free running model tests and numerical simulations based on planar motion model with the use of hydrodynamic derivatives obtained...
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Numerical Estimation of Hull Hydrodynamic Derivatives in Ship Maneuvering Prediction
PublicationPrediction of the maneuvering characteristics of the ship at the design stage can be done by means of model tests, computational simulations or a combination of both. The model tests can be realized as direct simulation of the standard maneuvers with the free running model, which gives the most accurate results, but is also the least affordable as it requires very large tank or natural lake, as well as complex equipment of the...
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Numerical prediction of steady and unsteady tip vortex cavitation on hydrofoils
PublicationArtykuł przedstawia metodę numeryczną do wyznaczania kawitujących wirów wierzchołkowych powstających za płatami nośnymi. Metoda ta jest oparta na rozwiązywanie dwufazowego turbulentnego przepływu cieczy lepkiej. Pozwala ona wyznaczyć geometrię kawitującego wiru dla różnych geometrii płata nośnego i dla różnych parametrów przepływu. Pokazano porównanie wyników obliczeń z pomiarami i rejestracjami wykonanymi na modelu płata w tunelu...
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A method for the accurate numerical prediction of the tip vortices shed from hydrofoils
PublicationPraca przedstawia wyniki obliczeń numerycznych rozkładu wirowości i pól prędkości w przekrojach wirów wierzchołkowych generowanych przez płaty nośne. Obliczenia przeprowadzono przy pomocy nowej, wyspecjalizowanej metody dyskretyzacji obszaru przepływu. Rezultaty obliczeń porównano z wynikami pomiarów anemometrem laserowym za modelami płatów w tunelu kawitacyjnym. Porównanie to potwierdziło skuteczność nowej metody dyskretyzacji...
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Hybrid Numerical-Analytical Approach for Force Prediction in End Milling of 42CrMo4 Steel
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Prediction of the fatigue lifetime of PUR structural elements using a combined experimental-numerical approach
PublicationThis paper presents a method for estimating the fatigue life of polyurethane elastomeric components. A rubber replacement - polyurethane of hardness 80ShA commonly used in vibration damping systems, for example, in motor vehicle suspensions, was used for the study. A metal-rubber bushing component was selected for analysis, and numerical analysis was carried out along with a fatigue model proposal based on a modification of the...
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Numerical Modelling for Prediction of Compression Index from Soil Index Properties in Jimma town, Ethiopia
PublicationIn this study, correlations are developed to predict compression index (Cc) from index parameters so that one can be able to model Jimma soils with compression index using simple laboratory tests. Undisturbed and disturbed soil samples from twelve different locations in Jimma town were collected. Laboratory tests like specific gravity, grain size analysis, Atterberg limit, and one-dimensional consolidation test for a total of twenty-four...
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Prediction of cast-in-place concrete strength of the extradosed bridge deck based on temperature monitoring and numerical simulations
PublicationThe work is devoted to the implementation of a monitoring system for high performance concrete embedded in the span of an extradosed bridge deck using a modified maturity method augmented by numerical simulations conducted by the authors’ FEM code. The paper presents all research stages of bridge construction and considers the conclusions drawn from the results of laboratory tests, field measurements, and numerical calculations....
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GIS Solution for Weather Forecast Data Analysis
PublicationIn this paper authors present the GIS system for the analysis of the numerical weather prediction data. This kind of data has multidimensional character (three dimensions and time) and its analysis should consider all the available factors. Proposed GIS system consists of RASDAMAN application with implemented OLAP cube mechanism, which enables the user to process data in the spatial-time domain. It also simplifies the meteorological...
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublicationWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Integration and verification of meteorological observations and NWP model data for the local GNSS tomography
PublicationGNSS meteorology applies the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) to derive information about the state of the atmosphere (particularly troposphere). The tomography is one of the methods used in GNSS meteorology. The input data of GNSS tomography are the signal troposphere delays, results of GNSS data processing and additionally meteorological observations and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models data. Different types...
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Towards Improving Optimised Ship Weather Routing
PublicationThe aim of the paper is to outline a project focusing on the development of a new type of ship weather routing solution with improved uncertainty handling, through better estimation of ship performance and responses to sea conditions. Ensemble forecasting is considered to take into account the uncertainty levels that are typical of operations in a stochastic environment. Increased accuracy of weather prediction is achieved through...
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Results of the application of tropospheric corrections from different troposphere models for precise GPS rapid static positioning
PublicationIn many surveying applications, determination of accurate heights is of significant interest. The delay caused by the neutral atmosphere is one of the main factors limiting the accuracy of GPS positioning and affecting mainly the height coordinate component rather than horizontal ones. Estimation of the zenith total delay is a commonly used technique for accounting for the tropospheric delay in static positioning. However, in the...
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An Intelligent Approach to Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using Deep Neural Networks
PublicationIn this paper, an intelligent approach to the Short-Term Wind Power Prediction (STWPP) problem is considered, with the use of various types of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). The impact of the prediction time horizon length on accuracy, and the influence of temperature on prediction effectiveness have been analyzed. Three types of DNNs have been implemented and tested, including: CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks), GRU (Gated Recurrent...
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Evaluation and application of data from road weather stations for winter maintenance management
PublicationThe paper presents the analysis of road weather data from meteorological stations located at the Polish national roads of Pomerania District during the impact of winter conditions. Presented issue is particularly important from the point of view the problem of winter maintenance and especially for prediction and assurance of quality of asphalt pavement surface ie. resistance to low temperature cracking or risk of glazed frost....
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Stormwater runoff in the urbanized coastal basin of Gdańsk Urbanized basin of Gdańsk
PublicationAnthropopressure strongly affects the primal water cycle. Alternation of the natural basins imposes changes of drainage patterns, reduction of bioretention, infiltration and base flow. As a result the overland flow predominates and greater runoff rates flow into storm water collection systems and reservoirs. Moreover changing climatic conditions increase the frequency of rapid extreme weather events. Infrastructures of urban areas...
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Stormwater and snowmelt runoff storage control and flash flood hazard forecasting in the urbanized coastal basin.
PublicationCity of Gdańsk is located in a coastal region where changing climatic conditions increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Developing urbanization affects the hydrology of natural basins by simplification of the drainage system and reduction of infiltration and base flow. Consequently greater runoff rates flow into storm water collection systems, reservoirs and surrounding water bodies. Not only infrastructures of urban...
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublicationPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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Calibration of precipitation estimation algorithm with particular emphasis on the Pomeranian region using high performance computing
PublicationFast and accurate precipitation estimation is an important element of remote atmosphere monitoring, as it allows, for example, to correct short-term weather forecasts and the prediction of several types of meteorological threats. The paper presents methodology for calibrating precipitation estimation algorithm based on MSG SEVIRI sensor data, and Optimal Cloud Analysis product available via EumetCast transmission. Calibration is...
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MESOSCALE FUNCTIONS OF GPS SLANT DELAY
PublicationThe paper presents a computer module for GPS slant delay determination using data from COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) mesoscale non-hydrostatic model of the atmosphere which is run on IA64 Feniks computer cluster in the Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy of the Military University of Technology. The slant delay is the result of integrating the ray (eikonal) equation for the spatial function...
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Ionosphere variability I: Advances in observational, monitoring and detection capabilities
PublicationThe paper aims to review recent advances regarding the observational and monitoring capabilities of the ionization conditions in the Earth's upper atmosphere. The analysis spans both ground and space-based experiments, seeking for new installations and/or missions, new or upgraded instrumentation and/or observational network establishments as means for advancing current understanding and prediction ability of the ionosphere variability....
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ANALYSIS OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THE USE OF VOLUME-DELAY FUNCTIONS IN THE PLANNING MODULE OF THE TRISTAR SYSTEM
PublicationTravel time is a measure commonly used for traffic flow modelling and traffic control. It also helps to evaluate the quality of traffic control systems in urban areas. Traffic control systems that use traffic models to predict changes and disruptions in vehicle flows have to use vehicle speed-prediction models. Travel time estimation studies the effects of traffic volumes on a street section at an average speed. The TRISTAR Integrated...
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ASSESSMENT OF UNDERPOWER ED PROPULSION MACHINERY IN ELECTRICALLY DRIVEN SMALL INLAND WATERWAY PASSENGER SHIPS FROM CLASSIFICATION SOCIETY POINT OF View
PublicationPaper presents short operat ional a nd engineering analysis of underpowered propulsion in small electrically propelled small inland passenger ships. There is evidence that in certain weather conditions the phenomena of added aerodynamic resistance of small water crafts may have serious influence on their speed and manoeuvrability. Existing regulations like class societies rules for ship classification and construction or EU Directive 2006/87/EC do...
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Assessment of under power ed propulsion machinery in electrically driven small inland waterway passenger ships from classification society point of view
PublicationPaper presents short operat ional a nd engineering analysis of underpowered propulsion in small electrically propelled small inland passenger ships. There is evidence that in certain weather conditions the phenomena of added aerodynamic resistance of small water crafts may have seriou s influence on their speed and manoeuvrability. Existing regulations like class societies rules for ship classification and construction or EU Directive 2006/87/EC do...
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Closer Look at the Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation under Distributional Shift
PublicationWhile recent computer vision algorithms achieve impressive performance on many benchmarks, they lack robustness - presented with an image from a different distribution, (e.g. weather or lighting conditions not considered during training), they may produce an erroneous prediction. Therefore, it is desired that such a model will be able to reliably predict its confidence measure. In this work, uncertainty estimation for the task...
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USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR PREDICTING SHIP FUEL CONSUMPTION
PublicationIn marine vessel operations, fuel costs are major operating costs which affect the overall profitability of the maritime transport industry. The effective enhancement of using ship fuel will increase ship operation efficiency. Since ship fuel consumption depends on different factors, such as weather, cruising condition, cargo load, and engine condition, it is difficult to assess the fuel consumption pattern for various types...
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Investigating the Impact of Weather Conditions and Time of Day on Traffic Flow Characteristics
PublicationAdverse weather such as rain, snow, and fog may significantly reduce visibility or change adhesion properties and, as a consequence, affect drivers’ sense of safety, driving comfort, and their reaction to a changing driving environment (i.e., lower speed and increased headways). The changed behavior of individual drivers affects both traffic flow characteristics, that is, average speed and headways, and parameters related to highway...
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Diurnal variability of atmospheric water vapour, precipitation and cloud top temperature across the global tropics derived from satellite observations and GNSS technique
PublicationThe diurnal cycle of convection plays an important role in clouds and water vapour distribution across the global tropics. In this study, we utilize integrated moisture derived from the global navigation satellite system (GNSS), satellite precipitation estimates from TRMM and merged infrared dataset to investigate links between variability in tropospheric moisture, clouds development and precipitation at a diurnal time scale. Over...
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Weather Hazard Avoidance in Modeling Safety of Motor-Driven Ship for Multicriteria Weather Routing
PublicationWeather routing methods find the most suitable ocean?s route for a vessel, taking into account changeable weather conditions and navigational constraints. In the multicriteria approach based on the evolutionary SPEA algorithm one is able to consider a few constrained criteria simultaneously. The approach applied for a ship with hybrid propulsions has already been presented by one of the authors on previous TransNav?2009. This time...
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Optimization of Wireless Networks for Resilience to Adverse Weather Conditions
PublicationIn this chapter, we consider how adverse weather conditions such as rain or fog affect the performance of wireless networks, and how to optimize these networks so as to make them robust to these conditions. We first show how to analyze the weather conditions in order to make them useful for network optimization modelling. Using an example realistic network, we show how to optimize two types of wireless networks: free-space optical...
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Enhancing Resilience of FSO Networks to Adverse Weather Conditions
PublicationOptical wireless networks realized by means of gigabit optical wireless communication (OWC) systems are becoming, in a variety of applications, an important alternative, or a complementary solution, to their fiber-based counterparts. However, performance of the OWC systems can be considerably degraded in periods of unfavorable weather conditions, such as heavy fog, which temporarily reduce the effective capacity of the network....
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Multi-objective weather routing of sailing vessels
PublicationThe paper presents a multi-objective deterministic method of weather routing for sailing vessels. Depending on a particular purpose of sailboat weather routing, the presented method makes it possible to customize the criteria and constraints so as to fit a particular user’s needs. Apart from a typical shortest time criterion, safety and comfort can also be taken into account. Additionally, the method supports dynamic weather data:...
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Impact of adverse winter weather on traffic flow
PublicationThe paper aims to analyse the impact of adverse weather in winter on traffic flow using data from a dual carriageway section of an express road located in Gdansk. For the purposes of the analysis, traffic and meteorological data were collected for a period of 15 months in 2014-2015 and aggregated to 5 minutes intervals. The impact of winter weather conditions on traffic flow was assessed by comparing aggregated traffic stream parameters...
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The Impact of Weather on Traffic Speed in Urban Area
PublicationThe issue of the impact of weather conditions on trip speed of vehicles has been studied for a long time and it is still the subject of many scientific researches. The impact of atmospheric conditions on the speed with which drivers drive their vehicles seems to be obvious. Good weather conditions, sunny weather with good visibility surely provokes higher speed while rainfall, wind...
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Collision Risk-Informed Weather Routing for Sailboats
PublicationSelected COLREG rules, good seamanship and sheer common sense indicate that it is in a sailboat's interest to follow collision-free routes without relying on large power-driven ships to give way. Until now, however, no method has integrated a sailboat's weather routing with collision risk monitoring and collision avoidance. Therefore, a new deterministic approach to combine the above features within one method is introduced here....
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Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm in Practice
PublicationThe Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA) has already been introduced by the author on earlier TransNav 2009 and 2011 conferences with a focus on theoretical application to a hybrid-propulsion or motor-driven ship. This paper addresses the topic of possible practical weather routing applications of MEWRA. In the paper some practical advantages of utilizing Pareto front as a result of multicriteria optimization...
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Multi-objective Weather Routing with Customised Criteria and Constraints
PublicationThe paper presents a weather routing algorithm utilising a multi-objective optimisation with constraints, namely the Multi-objective Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA). In the proposed approach weather route recommendations can be made simultaneously e.g. for passage time, fuel consumption and safety of passage by means of Pareto optimisation. The sets of criteria and constraints in the optimisation process are fully...
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A survey on network resiliency methodologies against weather-based disruptions
PublicationDue to the increasing dependence on network services of our society, research has recently been concentrating on enhancing traditional protection strategies to withstand large-scale failures, as in case of disaster events. The recently-formed EU-funded RECODIS project aims at coordinating and fostering research collaboration in Europe on disaster resiliency in communication networks. In particular, the Working Group (WG) 2 of the...
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Assessing the Effects of the Road Surface and Weather Conditions on Road Safety
PublicationWhen transport is analysed for its safe delivery the focus is mainly on assessing the safety of roads and the risk of undesired events. These include road accidents, an occurrence which is relatively rare and random. Randomness means that accidents depend on several factors which are partly deterministic (can be controlled) and partly stochastic (random and unpredictable). The set of crash contributing factors can be classified...
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Optimizing FSO networks resilient to adverse weather conditions by means of enhanced uncertainty sets
PublicationThis work deals with dimensioning of wireless mesh networks (WMN) composed of FSO (free space optics) links. Although FSO links realize broadband transmission at low cost, their drawback is sensitivity to adverse weather conditions causing transmission degradation on multiple links. Hence, designing such FSO networks requires an optimization model to find the cheapest configuration of link capacities that will be able to carry...
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Derecho Evolving from a Mesocyclone—A Study of 11 August 2017 Severe Weather Outbreak in Poland: Event Analysis and High-Resolution Simulation
PublicationThis study documents atmospheric conditions, development, and evolution of a severe weather outbreak that occurred on 11 August 2017 in Poland. The emphasis is on analyzing system morphology and highlighting the importance of a mesovortex in producing the most significant wind damages. A derecho-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) had a remarkable intensity and was one of the most impactful convective storms in the history...
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ADOPTED ISOCHRONE METHOD IMPROVING SHIP SAFETY IN WEATHER ROUTING WITH EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH
PublicationThe paper is focused on adaptation of an isochrone method necessary for application to a weather routing system with evolutionary approach. Authors propose an adaptation of the isochrone method with area partitioning assuring that the route found by the adopted method would not cross land. In result, when applied to a weather routing system with evolutionary approach, this proposal facilitates creation of initial population, resulting...
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Ship weather routing featuring w-MOEA/D and uncertainty handling
PublicationThe paper presents a new version of evolutionary multi-objective weather routing (WR) for ships taking into account uncertainties of weather forecasts in route optimization. The method applies authors’ w-MOEA/D algorithm: MOEA/D framework incorporating Decision Maker’s (DM) preferences by means of w-dominance relation. Owing to this, DM preferences are taken into account throughout optimization, allowing the process to focus on...