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Search results for: PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS
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Ryszard Bielski dr inż.
PeopleA practitioner and a longtime manager of engineering management and logistics logistics in the country and abroad, president of the management boards of domestic and German construction and shipbuilding companies, former director of the logistics department at the Naval Shipyard in Gdynia. Project Manager implementing large projects in the Netherlands and Germany in cooperation with, among others with Thyssen AG, Hochtief AG, Lindenau...
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Analiza Niezawodności Człowieka w Ramach Funkcji związanych z Bezpieczeństwem w Przykładowej Instalacji
PublicationW analizie bezpieczeństwa funkcjonalnego systemów sterowania i zabezpieczeń należy określić wymagany poziom nienaruszalności bezpieczeństwa SIL w procesie analizy ryzyka, a następnie zweryfikować ten poziom stosując odpowiednie metody modelowania probabilistycznego. Działania człowieka mogą mieć istotny wpływ na realizację funkcji bezpieczeństwa. Wpływ ten ocenia się na podstawie wyników analizy niezawodności człowieka HRA. W niniejszym...
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Systems engineering approach to functional safety and cyber security of industrial critical installations
PublicationThis chapter addresses the systems engineering approach to integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management regarding selected references, standards and requirements concerning critical installations and their industrial automation and control system (IACS). The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial installations that include the information technology (IT) and the operational technology...
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Systems engineering approach to functional safety and cyber security of industrial critical installations
PublicationThis chapter addresses the systems engineering approach to integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management regarding selected references, standards and requirements concerning critical installations and their industrial automation and control system (IACS). The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial installations that include the information technology (IT) and the operational technology...
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Brief Literature Review and Classification System of Reliability Methods for Evaluating the Stability of Earth Slopes
PublicationThe issue of slope stability is one of the most important and yet most difficult geotechnical problems. Assessing slope stability is particularly difficult because of the many uncertainties involved in the process. To take these uncertainties into account, probabilistic methods are used, and the reliability approach is adopted. There are many methods for reliability assessment of earth slope stability. However, there is no system...
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Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?
PublicationWe compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire...
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Motion Trajectory Prediction in Warehouse Management Systems: A Systematic Literature Review
PublicationBackground: In the context of Warehouse Management Systems, knowledge related to motion trajectory prediction methods utilizing machine learning techniques seems to be scattered and fragmented. Objective: This study seeks to fill this research gap by using a systematic literature review approach. Methods: Based on the data collected from Google Scholar, a systematic literature review was performed, covering the period from 2016...
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IDENTIFICATION OF DAMAGES OF TRIBOLOGICAL ASSOCIATIONS IN CRANKSHAFT AND PISTON SYSTEMS OF TWO-STROKE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES USED AS MAIN PROPULSION IN SEA-GOING VESSELS AND PROPOSAL OF PROBABILISTIC DESCRIPTION OF LOADS AS CAUSES OF THESE DAMAGES
PublicationThe article discusses damages of essential tribological associations in crankshaft and piston systems of large power two-stroke engines used as main engines, which take place during transport tasks performed by those ships. Difficulties are named which make preventing those damages impossible, despite the fact that the technical state of engines of this type is identified with the aid of complex diagnostic systems making use of...
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Procedure based proactive functional safety management for the risk mitigation of hazardous events in the oil port installations including insurance aspects
PublicationThis article addresses selected technical and organization aspects of risk mitigation in the oil port installations with regard to functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The procedure for functional safety management includes the hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on risk assessment results...
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Demonstrator testera wbudowanego BIST dla układów w pełni różnicowych
PublicationPrzedstawiono demonstrator testera wbudowanego, przeznaczony do pracy na stanowisku dydaktycznym w laboratorium z przedmiotu Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne. Na stanowisku studenci zapoznają się z technologią BIST (ang. Built-In Self-Test), która jest przykładem wdrożenia strategii projektowania dla testowania.
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Diagnostic Model of Crankshaft Seals
PublicationT he paper presents a research stand being a diagnostic model of radial lip seals used, among others, on crankshafts of piston combustion engines in order to identify the correctness of their operation. The possibility of determining the technical condition of lip seals on the basis of the proposed coefficient of correctness of operation has been described. T he basic features of seals influencing their correctness of...
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Symposium On Combinatorics, Algorithms, Probabilistic and Experimental Methodologies
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Justification of models of changing project environment for harvesting grain, oilseed and legume crops
PublicationAn analysis of the condition of implementation of projects in agricultural production is carried out. The disadvantages of existing methods and models of planning of the content and time of execution of works in the projects, which mostly do not take into account the changing components of their project environment, are substantiated. The proposed methodology for justifying the models of a changing project environment for harvesting...
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The Effect of the Selection of Three-Dimensional Random Numerical Soil Models on Strip Foundation Settlements
PublicationThis paper delivers a probabilistic attempt to prove that the selection of a random three-dimensional finite element (FE) model of a subsoil affects the computed settlements. Parametricanalysis of a random soil block is conducted, assuming a variable subsoil Young’s modulus inparticular finite elements. The modulus is represented by a random field or different-sized setsof random variables; in both cases, the same truncated...
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Managing safety of industrial hazardous installations with emphasis on the control systems, interfaces and human factors
PublicationIn the paper a procedure for the layer of protection analysis (LOPA) as a tool to evaluate the risk of accident scenarios occurrence in hazardous installations is outlined. In such installations several protection layers exist. Human operator performance in each layer is unavoidable, but the role and tasks are different and depend on the context of situation. Based on suggestions form literature (EEMUA, CREAM) and own proposals...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublicationA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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Integrity level verification for safety-related functions
PublicationThis article describes methods for safety integrity level (SIL) verification of safety-related functions with regard to probabilistic criteria given international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. These functions are to be realized using the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE) systems or safety instrumented systems (SIS). Some methods are proposed for quantitative probabilistic modelling taking into account...
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Crack Resistance of Asphalt Concrete Subjected to Environmental Factors
PublicationThe paper presents an analysis of the influence of environmental factors on the cracking susceptibility of asphalt concrete resulting in a change in the durability of asphalt pavement. In order to assess the phenomenon, laboratory tests were carried out taking into account the destructive effects of moisture, freeze-thaw cycle and long-term ageing. The influence of both factors occurring simultaneously was also verified. Due to...
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The Employment of Ukrainians as an Opportunity to Fill the Labour Market in Poland – Selected Issues
PublicationThe labour market in Poland has undergone signifi cant transformations over the past two decades. The observed changes have been infl uenced by various factors related to, among other things, the possibility of free movement of the population resulting from membership of EU structures, demographic changes, technological changes, and the automation and robotisation of production processes. Demographic change is becoming a signifi...
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Reliability of production machines in the bakery industry – theoretical and practical issues
PublicationThe aim of the article is to present probabilistic models, which were then used to analyze the reliability of production machines in the baking industry. The author conducted research in the period from January 2, 2016 to December 31, 2018 regarding the measurement of reliability of a traditional production system based on a probabilistic concept. Due to the limited scope of the article, reliability calculations for a set of thermo-oil...
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Reliability assessment of truss towers using Monte Carlo Method, PEM and RSM
PublicationThe paper discusses the reliability assessment of simple random truss structures using three different probabilistic methodologies: the Monte Carlo method, the Point Estimate Method and the Response Surface Method. A benchmark truss structure example is analyzed. A set of numerical calculations of critical load is performed and the results are taken as the basis of advanced probabilistic calculations. Using the samples, numerical...
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Reliability assessment of truss towers using Monte Carlo Method, PEM and RSM
PublicationThe paper discusses reliability assessment of simple random truss structures using three different probabilistic methodologies: the Monte Carlo Method (MCM), the Point Estimate Method (PEM) and the Response Surface Method (RSM). A benchmark truss structure and a simplified full–size engineering tower are both analyzed. A set of ultimate load numerical calculations is performed and the results are taken as the basis of advanced...
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Graph security testing
PublicationSet S ⊂ V is called secure set iff ∀ X ⊂ S | N [ X ] ∩ S | ≥ | N ( X ) \ S | [3]. That means that every subset of a secure set has at least as many friends (neighbour vertices in S) as enemies (neighbour vertices outside S) and will be defended in case of attack. Problem of determining if given set is secure is co −NP -complete, there is no efficient algorithm solving it [3]. Property testers are algorithms that distinguish inputs...
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Selection of main engines for hopper suction dredgers with the use oobability models
PublicationThis paper presents a new original method of selection of main engines for hopper suction dredgers with regard to probabilistic models. It was proposed to use the normal distribution to describe the operational loads of the main receivers. The principles for determination of parameters of load distribution and design power of the main engines were formulated. Lastly, the principles of selection of the size and number of main engines...
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Improving the Accuracy in Sentiment Classification in the Light of Modelling the Latent Semantic Relations
PublicationThe research presents the methodology of improving the accuracy in sentiment classification in the light of modelling the latent semantic relations (LSR). The objective of this methodology is to find ways of eliminating the limitations of the discriminant and probabilistic methods for LSR revealing and customizing the sentiment classification process (SCP) to the more accurate recognition of text tonality. This objective was achieved...
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A random field-based simulational identification of possible levels of material imperfections of adhesive-bonded joints
PublicationRecently, structural adhesives have become significant in the shaping of structural elements, especially in thin-walled structures, where they replace or supplement traditional connection methods. However, adhesive-bonded joints are highly susceptible to internal structural imperfections due to their application technique and the nature of the adhesive. These material inconsistencies impact the strength parameters and the mechanical...
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...
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Structural reliability of overhead power lines by means of Monte Carlo Method and RSM
PublicationThe article discusses the issue of reliability assessment of overhead power lines by means of both Monte Carlo Method and Response Surface Method. The suspension tower OS24 ON150+10 is considered, as the weakest element of the line. A comparison is made between deterministic and probabilistic approaches to wind and icing loading. The PDFs for wind and icing loads are proposed. Reliability is assessed for both critical atmospheric...
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Predicting a passenger ship's response during evasive maneuvers using Bayesian Learning
PublicationThe rapidly advancing automation of the maritime industry – for instance, through onboard Decision Support Systems (DSS) – can facilitate the introduction of advanced solutions supporting the process of collision avoidance at sea. Nevertheless, relevant solutions that aim to correctly predict a ship's behavior in irregular waves are only available to a limited extent by omitting the impact of wave stochastics on resulting evasive...
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Application of Pierson-Moskowitz wave spectrum to solution differential equations of multihull vessel
PublicationMotion of a dynamic system can be generated by different external or internal factors. At mathematical modelling external excitation factors of the most significant effect on the system, are selected. Such external factors are usually called excitations. Response of the system to given excitations is mathematically characterized by a definite transformation called operator of a system. For a broad class of dynamic systems the...
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Application of algorithms for reasoning from imperfect knowledge in it evaluation environment
PublicationThe paper describes concept of building multi-agent system dedicated for information technology evaluation or selection for IT enterprises management (IT_MAS). Authors present the model of Knowledge Processing Environment, which is one of main components of the solution. Either facts or rules will be based on IT specialists' experience. However, knowledge which is being acquisited from IT domain is mostly imperfect - uncertain...
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Mitigating Time-Constrained Stolen-Credentials Content Poisoning in an NDN Setting
PublicationNDN is a content-centric networking architecture using globally addressable information objects, created by publishers and cached by network nodes to be later accessed by subscribers. Content poisoning attacks consist in the substi-tution by an intruder publisher of bogus objects for genuine ones created by an honest publisher. With valid credentials stolen from an honest publisher, such attacks seem unstoppa-ble unless object...
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Development of Local IDF-formula Using Controlled Random Search Method for Global Optimization
PublicationThe aim of the study is to present the effective and relatively simple empirical approach to rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency-formulas development, based on Controlled Random Search (CRS) for global optimization. The approach is mainly dedicated to the cases in which the commonly used IDF-relationships do not provide satisfactory fit between simulations and observations, and more complex formulas with higher number of parameters...
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Application of a stochastic compartmental model to approach the spread of environmental events with climatic bias
PublicationWildfires have significant impacts on both environment and economy, so understanding their behaviour is crucial for the planning and allocation of firefighting resources. Since forest fire management is of great concern, there has been an increasing demand for computationally efficient and accurate prediction models. In order to address this challenge, this work proposes applying a parameterised stochastic model to study the propagation...
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Adaptive Method for Modeling of Temporal Dependencies between Fields of Vision in Multi-Camera Surveillance Systems
PublicationA method of modeling the time of object transition between given pairs of cameras based on the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is proposed in this article. Temporal dependencies modeling is a part of object re-identification based on the multi-camera experimental framework. The previously utilized Expectation-Maximization (EM) approach, requiring setting the number of mixtures arbitrarily as an input parameter, was extended with the...
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Optimization of Division and Reconfiguration Locations of the Medium-Voltage Power Grid Based on Forecasting the Level of Load and Generation from Renewable Energy Sources
PublicationThe article addresses challenges in optimizing the operation of medium voltage networks, emphasizing optimizing network division points and selecting the best network configuration for minimizing power and energy losses. It critically reviews recent research on the issue of network configuration optimization. The optimization of the medium voltage power grid reconfiguration process was carried out using known optimization tools....
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On reliability assessment of ship machinery system in different autonomy degree; A Bayesian-based approach
PublicationAnalyzing the reliability of autonomous ships has recently attracted attention mainly due to epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) integrated with automatic operations in the maritime sector. The advent of new random failures with unrecognized failure patterns in autonomous ship operations requires a comprehensive reliability assessment specifically aiming at estimating the time in which the ship can be trusted to be left unattended....
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A framework for onboard assessment and monitoring of flooding risk due to open watertight doors for passenger ships
PublicationPost-accident safety of ships is governed by damage stability, affected by watertight subdivisions which limit accidental flooding. This is important for passenger ships with watertight doors (WTDs) often fitted in the bulkheads. Awareness of the ship flooding risk due to open WTDs and the conditions under which the associated risk level changes are prerequisites for proactive risk mitigation. Accident risk is often expressed as...
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Double-Blind Reputation vs. Intelligent Fake VIP Attacks in Cloud-Assisted Interactions
PublicationWe consider a generic model of Client-Server interactions in the presence of Sender and Relay, conceptual agents acting on behalf of Client and Server, respectively, and modeling cloud service providers in the envisaged "QoS as a Service paradigm". Client generates objects which Sender tags with demanded QoS level, whereas Relay assigns the QoS level to be provided at Server. To verify an object's right to a QoS level, Relay detects...
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Defending against Fake VIP in Scant-Transparency Information Systems with QoS Differentiation
PublicationIn client-server information systems with quality of service (QoS) differentiation, Client may deplete Server’s resources by demanding unduly high QoS level. Such QoS abuse has eluded systematic treatment; known defenses using Client authorization, payments, or service request inspection prior to QoS assignment, are heuristic and environment-specific. We offer a game-theoretic approach on the premise that a service request is occasionally...
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Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Symbolic Polyphonic Pitch Modeling
PublicationSymbolic pitch modeling is a way of incorporating knowledge about relations between pitches into the process of an- alyzing musical information or signals. In this paper, we propose a family of probabilistic symbolic polyphonic pitch models, which account for both the “horizontal” and the “vertical” pitch struc- ture. These models are formulated as linear or log-linear interpo- lations of up to fi ve sub-models, each of which is...
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Contextual Knowledge to Enhance Workplace Hazard Recognition and Interpretation in a Cognitive Vision Platform
PublicationThe combination of vision and sensor data together with the resulting necessity for formal representations builds a central component of an autonomous Cyber Physical System for detection and tracking of laborers in workplaces environments. This system must be adaptable and perceive the environment as automatically as possible, performing in a variety of plants and scenes without the necessity of recoding the application for each...
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Impact Assessment of Electric Vehicles Integration and Optimal Charging Schemes Under Uncertainty: A Case Study of Qatar
PublicationThe integration of electric vehicles (EVs) is rapidly growing compared to conventional vehicles in Qatar. To assess how these electric vehicles will impact Qatar’s distribution network, it is necessary to accurately model EV loads. However, EV loads exhibit uncertainties due to driving behaviour in charging time, state of charge (SOC), number of trips, and distance travelled. This necessitates the development of a probabilistic...
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The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublicationTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
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Multi-layered mineral glass units used as viewport elements of underwater ship structures
PublicationIn the paper, Authors deals with viewport elements of underwater marine constructions. If a single-plate viewport constructions are considered, big thicknesses of the glass plate are required to resist the pressure. To build the viewports from the commercially accessible glass panes, multi-layered glass units are proposed in the paper. Numerical calculations are presented, summarized and compared with experimental tests. Focusing...
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Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne 2022/2023
e-Learning Courses{mlang en} 1. Introduction/Guide for the use of the International System of Units2. Rules and style conventions for expressing values of quantities.3. The role of measurement uncertainty in conformity assessment. 4. Probabilistic model for measurement processes, estimation theory5. Analog-digital conversion methods6. Selected structures of classical analog-digital converters7. New techniques of analog-digital conversion: sigma-delta...
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Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne 2023/2024
e-Learning Courses{mlang en} 1. Introduction/Guide for the use of the International System of Units2. Rules and style conventions for expressing values of quantities.3. The role of measurement uncertainty in conformity assessment. 4. Probabilistic model for measurement processes, estimation theory5. Analog-digital conversion methods6. Selected structures of classical analog-digital converters7. New techniques of analog-digital conversion: sigma-delta...
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Zaawansowane Metody Pomiarowe i Diagnostyczne 2024/2025
e-Learning Courses{mlang en} 1. Introduction/Guide for the use of the International System of Units2. Rules and style conventions for expressing values of quantities.3. The role of measurement uncertainty in conformity assessment. 4. Probabilistic model for measurement processes, estimation theory5. Analog-digital conversion methods6. Selected structures of classical analog-digital converters7. New techniques of analog-digital conversion: sigma-delta...
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Problemy zarządzania bezpieczeństwem obiektu przemysłowego podwyższonego ryzyka
PublicationW rozdziale przedstawiono wybrane zagadnienia dotyczące zarządzania bezpieczeństwem w zautomatyzowanym złożonym obiekcie podwyższonego ryzyka. Pokazano, że ryzyko strat można istotnie ograniczyć stosując odpowiednie rozwiązania techniczne w postaci warstwowego systemu zabezpieczeń, który obejmuje podstawowy system sterowania procesem, człowieka-operatora i system automatyki zabezpieczeniowej. Podkreślono znaczenie właściwego zaprojektowania...
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The use of a two-phase Monte Carlo material model to reflect the dispersion of asphalt concrete fracture parameters
PublicationThe work covers comprehensive laboratory tests of semi-circular bending (SCB) of asphalt concrete samples. The results of two test series, including four and 32 SCB specimens, indicate a substantial scatter of force–deflection (F-d) histories. The numerical analysis is aimed to reflect the maximum breaking load and fracture energy of the samples, pointing out their random character. The original simulation-based fictitious Monte...