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Search results for: metoda monte carlo
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Reliability Analysis of Sea Cliff Slope Stability by Point Estimate Method
PublicationThe paper presents a reliability analysis of a sea cliff slope. The cliff, located in Jastrzębia Góra, is characterised by a complicated geological structure. Although currently stable, it is in fact close to the limit state. The objective of this paper is to present the point estimate method (PEM) of determining the mean value and standard deviation of the safety factor of the slope. Assuming its normal distribution, these statistical...
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Estimating the uncertainty of the liquid mass flow using the orifice plate
PublicationThe article presents estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. This subject is essential because of the widespread use of this type of flow meters, which renders not only the quantitative estimation but also qualitative results of this type so those measurements are important. To achieve this goal, the authors of the paper propose to use the theory of uncertainty. The article shows the...
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A probabilistic description of footbridges vibration serviceability
PublicationRozważa się użytkowalność kładki dla pieszych ze względu na ich drgania. Imperfekcje ruchu pieszych są opisane zmianami współczynników tegoż ruchu. Bierze się pod uwagę rozkłady prawdopodobieństwa częstotliwości ruchu, długości kroku oraz amplitudy siły modelującej pieszego. Imperfekcje te znacznie wpływają na zachowanie konstrukcji. Stosuje się metodę Monte Carlo. Dane z symulacji probabilistycznych używa się do obliczeń numerycznych....
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Silniki elektryczne w kosmonautyce
PublicationArtykuł jest pracą przeglądową dotyczącą silników elektrycznych (EP - Electric Propulsion)wykorzystywanych w kosmonautyce. Bardziej szczegółowo opisano działanie silnika elektrostatycznego działającego w oparciu o efekt Halla (HET - Hall Effect Thruster). Silnik ten jest powszechnie wykorzystywany w pozycjonowaniu satelitów, potencjalnie może być wykorzystany do dalekich misji planetarnych. HET jest obiektem wielu badań doświadczalnych...
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Kagome Lattice Promotes Chiral Spin Fluctuations
PublicationDynamical spin fluctuations in magnets can be endowed with a slight bent toward left- or right-handed chirality by Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interactions. However, little is known about the crucial role of lattice geometry on these chiral spin fluctuations and on fluctuation-related transport anomalies driven by the quantum-mechanical (Berry) phase of conduction electrons. Via thermoelectric Nernst effect and electric Hall effect experiments,...
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Excitation energy migration in uniaxially oriented polymer films: a comparison between strongly and weakly organized systems
PublicationMechanizm wieloetapowej migracji energii w osiowo rozciąganych foliach polimerowych jest analizowany w układach o silnej i słabej orientacji molekuł barwników umieszczonych w matrycach poliwinylowych. Porównanie tych różnie orientujących się układów bazuje na zjawisku depolaryzacji stężeniowej anizotropii emisji, symulacjach Monte Carlo i wartościach liniowego dichroizmu. Pokazano, że uporządkowanie momentów przejścia fluoroforów...
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Excitation energy transfer in partly ordered polymer films differing in donor and acceptor transition moments orientation
PublicationBased on spectroscopic measurements selected properties of nonradiative Förster energy transport are studied in uniaxially stretched polyvinyl alcohol thin films for three systems differing in donor and acceptor transition moments orientation relative to the axis of stretching. In particular, donor – acceptor emission anisotropy spectra yield completely different regularities for these systems in uniaxially stretched films, whereas...
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Design centering of compact microwave components using response features and trust regions
PublicationFabrication tolerances, as well as uncertainties of other kinds, e.g., concerning material parameters or operating conditions, are detrimental to the performance of microwave circuits. Mitigating their impact requires accounting for possible parameter deviations already at the design stage. This involves optimization of appropriately defined statistical figures of merit such as yield. Alt-hough important, robust (or tolerance-aware)...
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Rapid surrogate-assisted statistical analysis of compact microstrip couplers
PublicationIn this paper, a technique for low-cost statistical analysis and yield estimation of compact microwave couplers has been presented. The analysis is executed at the level of a fast surrogate model representing selected characteristic points of the coupler response that are critical to determine satisfaction/violation of the prescribed design specifications. Because of less nonlinear dependence of the characteristic points on geometry...
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Empirical analyses of robustness of the square Msplit estimation
PublicationThe paper presents Msplit estimation as an alternative to methods in the class of robust M-estimation. The analysis conducted showed that Msplit estimation is highly efficient in the identification of observations encumbered by gross errors, especially those of small or moderate values. The classical methods of robust estimation provide then unsatisfactory results. Msplit estimation also shows high robustness to single gross errors...
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Identification of Unstable Reference Points and Estimation of Displacements Using Squared Msplit Estimation
PublicationThe article presents a new version of the method for estimating parameters in a split functional model, which enables the determination of displacements of geodetic network points with constrained datum. The main aim of the study is to present theoretical foundations of Msplit CD estimation and its basic properties and possible applications. Particular attention was paid to the efficacy of the method in the context of geodetic...
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Wykorzystanie metod symulacyjnych w modelowaniu morsko – lądowych łańcuchów dostaw na przykładzie DCT
PublicationArtykuł jest kolejnym etapem badań w zakresie modelowania lądowo – morskich łańcuchów dostaw. Badania miały na celu sprawdzenie płynności operacyjnej w terminalu kontenerowym na podstawie symulacji ruchu jednostek w założonym czasie z wykorzystaniem metody Monte Carlo. Płynność operacyjna terminalu była badana w oparciu o wskaźnik zajętości placu składowego przy założonych początkowych poziomach wypełnienia placu oraz zapotrzebowanie...
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Energy recovery effectiveness in trolleybus transport
PublicationNowadays the issue of electric energy saving in public transport is becoming a key area of interest whichis connected both with a growth in environmental awareness of the society and an increase in the pricesof fuel and electricity. One of the possibilities to reduce energy consumption in urban public transport isto increase the extent of regenerative braking energy utilization. This can be achieved by its accumulationin the supercapacitors...
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Do positrons measure atomic and molecular diameters?
PublicationWe report on density functional calculations (DFT) of elastic integral scattering cross-sections for positron collisions with argon, krypton, nitrogen and methane. The long-range asymptotic polarization potential is described using higher-order terms going much beyond an induced dipole potential (−α / r 4) while the short-range interaction is modeled by two different forms of electron – positron correlation potential (Boroński-Nieminen...
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Influence of pulse waves on the transmission of near-infrared radiation in outer-head tissue layers.
PublicationIn this study, we investigate the effect of pulse waves on the transmission of near-infrared radiation in the outer tissue layers of the human head. This effect is important in using optical radiation to monitor brain conditions based on measuring the transmission changes in the near-infrared radiation between the source and the detector, placed on the surface of the scalp. This is because the signal related to the changes in the...
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The role of low-energy electrons in the charging process of LISA test masses
PublicationThe estimate of the total electron yield is fundamental for our understanding of the test-mass charging associated with cosmic rays in the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) Pathfinder mission and in the forthcoming gravitational wave observatory LISA. To unveil the role of low energy electrons in this process owing to galactic and solar energetic particle events, in this work we study the interaction of keV and sub-keV...
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Numerical Study of Concrete Mesostructure Effect on Lamb Wave Propagation
PublicationThe article presents the results of the numerical investigation of Lamb wave propagation in concrete plates while taking into account the complex concrete mesostructure. Several concrete models with randomly distributed aggregates were generated with the use of the Monte Carlo method. The influence of aggregate ratio and particle size on dispersion curves representing Lamb wave modes was analyzed. The results obtained for heterogeneous...
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Design and implementation of an illumination system to mimic skyglow at ecosystem level in a large‐scale lake enclosure facility
PublicationLight pollution is an environmental stressor of global extent that is growing exponentially in area and intensity. Artificial skyglow, a form of light pollution with large range, is hypothesized to have environmental impact at ecosystem level. However, testing the impact of skyglow at large scales and in a controlled fashion under in situ conditions has remained elusive so far. Here we present the first experimental setup to mimic...
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The assessment of metrological properties of segmental orifice based on simulations and experiments
PublicationSegmental orifices are often used to measure flows of heterogeneous mixtures, especially in flow meters in the power industry, for example. The orifice (with module m= 0.25) was installed in a stainless-steel pipe with internal diameter of 50 mm, placed in a hydraulic water system. The research was performed for Reynolds numbers ranging from 9,000 to 17,000. The flow characteristics of this orifice obtained based on simulation...
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Positron scattering on molecular hydrogen: Analysis of experimental and theoretical uncertainties
PublicationExperiments performed in recent years on positron scattering from molecular hydrogen indicated a rise of the total cross section in the limit of zero energy, but essentially disagree on the amplitude of this rise. Mitroy and collaborators [J.-Y. Zhang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 223202 (2009)] predicted a scattering length somewhat different from values deduced experimentally. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo modified effective...
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Potential Application of Solar Energy Systems for Electrified Urban Transportation Systems
PublicationThe paper presents a novel approach toward the use of solar energy systems in public transportation. The concept of energy generation in PV systems for supplying a trolleybus transportation system is proposed for the city of Gdynia (Poland). The suggested way of energy production allows reducing the environmental harm impact of the municipal transportation system. Moreover, the proposed way of green energy use can be a more profitable...
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Energy deposition on the inner surface of a Hall Effect thruster for satellite
PublicationHET - Hall Effect Thruster, to silnik powszechnie wykorzystywany w kosmonautyce do pozycjonowania satelitów. Medium dostarczającym ciąg silnikowi jest zjonizowany gaz. Praca przedstawia wyniki trzech symulacji komputerowych: 1. Modelowanie sondy Langmuira zanurzonej w plazmie ksenonowej o warunkach zbliżonych do tych panujących w silniku HET. Symulacje wykonano metodą metodą Particle-in-Cell Monte Carlo. Celem była analiza oddziaływania...
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Assessment of the Accuracy of a Virtual Multi-Channel Temperature Measuring Instrument
PublicationThe multi-channel temperature measurement system developed works with NTC thermistors. The article presents the results of theoretical and empirical evaluation of accuracy obtained in measurement channels. The basis for the theoretical assessment is the mathematical model for each of the measurement channels and the characteristics of the system elements included in the circuits of the measurement channel. Two different methods were...
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Model bezpieczeństwa statku morskiego.
PublicationBezpieczeństwo statku zależy istotnie od jego procesu eksploatacji. Proces ten zamodelowano jako semi-Markowowski. Fazostany procesu eksploatacji wywołują zapotrzebowanie na użytkowanie określonych systemów statku. Podczas realizacji procesów użytkowania tych systemów mogą powstawać zdarzenia niezdatności elementów technicznych i antropijnych, co może powodować wypadki morskie, czyli niespodziewane zdarzenia, których...
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Rapid Multi-band Patch Antenna Yield Estimation Using Polynomial Chaos-Kriging
PublicationYield estimation of antenna systems is important to check their robustness with respect to the uncertain sources. Since the Monte Carlo sampling-based real physics simulation model evaluations are computationally intensive, this work proposes the polynomial chaos-Kriging (PC-Kriging) metamodeling technique for fast yield estimation. PC-Kriging integrates the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) as the trend function of Kriging metamodel...
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Interactions between hydration spheres of two different solutes in solution: The least squares fitting with constraints as a tool to determine water properties in ternary systems
PublicationBiological systems are complex and the problem of their description lies in mutual interactions between their components. This paper is focused on model experiment-based studies which can reduce these difficulties. The ternary aqueous N-methylacetamide (NMA)–Na2HPO4 system has been studied by means of the FTIR spectroscopy. A novel difference spectra method aimed to extract the spectral contribution of water affected simultaneously...
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Guessing Intrinsic Forwarding Trustworthiness of Wireless Ad Hoc Network Nodes
PublicationA novel node misbehavior detection system called GIFTED is proposed for a multihop wireless ad hoc network (WAHN) whose nodes may selfishly refuse to forward transit packets. The system guesses the nodes’ intrinsic forwarding trustworthiness (IFT) by analyzing end-to-end path performance rather than utilizing unreliable and incentive incompatible low-layer mechanisms. It can work with occasional IFT jumps, directional antennae,...
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Statistical analysis and robust design of circularly polarized antennas using sequential approximate optimization
PublicationIn the paper, reliable yield estimation and tolerance-aware design optimization of circular polarization (CP) antennas is discussed. We exploit auxiliary kriging interpolation models established in the vicinity of the nominal design in order to speed up the process of statistical analysis of the antenna structure at hand. Sequential approximate optimization is then applied to carry out robust design of the antenna, here, oriented...
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Application of a stochastic compartmental model to approach the spread of environmental events with climatic bias
PublicationWildfires have significant impacts on both environment and economy, so understanding their behaviour is crucial for the planning and allocation of firefighting resources. Since forest fire management is of great concern, there has been an increasing demand for computationally efficient and accurate prediction models. In order to address this challenge, this work proposes applying a parameterised stochastic model to study the propagation...
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Experimental study and numerical optimization of tensegrity domes – A case study
PublicationThe paper deals with the design, experimental analysis and numerical optimization of tensegrity dome models. Two structures are analyzed – a Geiger system dome (preliminary dome), with PVC-U bars and PA6/PP/PET tendons and a Fuller system dome (target dome), with wooden bars and steel cables as tendons. All used materials are experimentally tested in terms of Young's modulus and yield stress values, the compressed bars are also...
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Adaptive Sampling for Non-intrusive Reduced Order Models Using Multi-Task Variance
PublicationNon-intrusive reduced order modeling methods (ROMs) have become increasingly popular for science and engineering applications such as predicting the field-based solutions for aerodynamic flows. A large sample size is, however, required to train the models for global accuracy. In this paper, a novel adaptive sampling strategy is introduced for these models that uses field-based uncertainty as a sampling metric. The strategy uses...
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Efficient uncertainty quantification using sequential sampling-based neural networks
PublicationUncertainty quantification (UQ) of an engineered system involves the identification of uncertainties, modeling of the uncertainties, and the forward propagation of the uncertainties through a system analysis model. In this work, a novel surrogate-based forward propagation algorithm for UQ is proposed. The proposed algorithm is a new and unique extension of the recent efficient global optimization using neural network (NN)-based...
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Optyka nieuporządkowanych ośrodków silnie rozpraszających
PublicationW pracy omówiono w syntetyczny sposób podstawowe problemy teoretyczne związane z analizą propagacji promieniowania optycznego w nieuporządkowanych ośrodkach silnie rozpraszających. Szczególną uwagę, obok zakresu stosowalności różnych metod analizy propagacji promieniowania optycznego w takich ośrodkach, zwrócono na ich dokładność, uniwersalność i efektywność. Przedstawiono nowatorskie usprawnienia metody Monte Carlo mające za zadanie...
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Theoretical studies of fragmentation processes of neutral and ionized furan molecule
PublicationThis PhD thesis focuses on the fragmentation mechanism of the furan molecule in the gas phase. The approach taken in this work comprised of three theoretical methodologies considering the dynamical, energetical and entropic aspects of the studied process. First, molecular dynamics simulations were performed. Next, the potential energy surfaces were explored at the DFT/B3LYP level of theory. Finally, a new statistical Microcanonical...
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Mitigating Traffic Remapping Attacks in Autonomous Multi-hop Wireless Networks
PublicationMultihop wireless networks with autonomous nodes are susceptible to selfish traffic remapping attacks (TRAs). Nodes launching TRAs leverage the underlying channel access function to receive an unduly high Quality of Service (QoS) for packet flows traversing source-to-destination routes. TRAs are easy to execute, impossible to prevent, difficult to detect, and harmful to the QoS of honest nodes. Recognizing the need for providing...
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On reliability assessment of ship machinery system in different autonomy degree; A Bayesian-based approach
PublicationAnalyzing the reliability of autonomous ships has recently attracted attention mainly due to epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) integrated with automatic operations in the maritime sector. The advent of new random failures with unrecognized failure patterns in autonomous ship operations requires a comprehensive reliability assessment specifically aiming at estimating the time in which the ship can be trusted to be left unattended....
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Estimation of the amplitude of the signal for the active optical gesture sensor with sparse detectors
PublicationIn this paper we deal with the problem of precise gesture recognition for the active optical proximity sensor with sparse 8 photodiodes. We particularly focus on developing the method of estimating the real, usually not observable, maximum signal value representing maximum intensity of light reflected from an obstacle present in the front of the sensor. Different configurations of the fingers were used as an obstacle. The Monte Carlo...
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Accounting for the distributions of input quantities in the procedure for the measurement uncertainty evaluation when calibrating the goniometer
PublicationThe discords concerning the measurement uncertainty evaluation in the Guide to the Expressing of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and its Supplement 1 are considered. To overcome these discords, the authors of the paper propose to use the kurtosis method and the law of the propagation of the expanded uncertainty. Using the example of the goniometer calibration, the features of accounting for the distribution laws of input quantities...
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Effectiveness of Random Field Approach in Serviceability Limit State Analysis of Strip Foundation
PublicationThis work conducts a probabilistic inquiry on how the variability of the parameter defining soil deformability affects the settlement of the foundation located on the soil. The analysis addresses the random foundation model to relevantly estimate the probability of allowable deflection exceedance. The constitutive model parameter is based either on a single random variable or a random field. The computations incorporate direct...
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Uncertainty quantification of modal parameter estimates obtained from subspace identification: An experimental validation on a laboratory test of a large-scale wind turbine blade
PublicationThe uncertainty afflicting modal parameter estimates stems from e.g., the finite data length, unknown, or partly measured inputs and the choice of the identification algorithm. Quantification of the related errors with the statistical Delta method is a recent tool, useful in many modern modal analysis applications e.g., damage diagnosis, reliability analysis, model calibration. In this paper, the Delta method-based uncertainty...
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Incorporating installation effects into the probability analysis of controlled modulus columns
PublicationThis technical report presents the probabilistic analysis which integrates the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with random field theory to model the load–displacement behavior of Controlled Modulus Columns (CMCs) in overconsolidated Poznań clay. Presented study focuses on the practical aspects of statistical analysis of geotechnical data, numerical model development, and results evaluation. Variability and spatial distribution of...
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The Effect of the Selection of Three-Dimensional Random Numerical Soil Models on Strip Foundation Settlements
PublicationThis paper delivers a probabilistic attempt to prove that the selection of a random three-dimensional finite element (FE) model of a subsoil affects the computed settlements. Parametricanalysis of a random soil block is conducted, assuming a variable subsoil Young’s modulus inparticular finite elements. The modulus is represented by a random field or different-sized setsof random variables; in both cases, the same truncated...
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Adsorption onto zeolites: molecular perspective
Publication2D minerals are among key elements of advanced systems, but the need for understanding their interactions/reactions with materials and systems in which they are involved necessitates tracking their molecular and atomic monitoring. Zeolitic structures are microporous materials formed in the nature through volcanic activities or synthesis. Because of their outstanding physicochemical properties like cation exchange capacity and excellent...
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Variable-fidelity response feature surrogates for accelerated statistical analysis and yield estimation of compact microwave components
PublicationAccounting for manufacturing tolerances is an essential part of a reliable microwave design process. Yet, quantification of geometry and/or material parameter uncertainties is challenging at the level of full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulation models. This is due to inherently high cost of EM analysis and massive simulations necessary to conduct the statistical analysis. Here, a low-cost and accurate yield estimation procedure...
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Rapid multi-criterial design of microwave components with robustness analysis by means of knowledge-based surrogates
PublicationManufacturing tolerances and uncertainties concerning material parameters, e.g., operating conditions or substrate permittivity are detrimental to characteristics of microwave components. The knowledge of relations between acceptable parameter deviations (not leading to violation of design specifications) and the nominal performance (not considering uncertainties), and is therefore indispensable. This paper proposes a multi-objective...
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Stateczność i niezawodność pełnomorskich platform wiertniczych
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono wieloletnie doświadczenia Autora w zakresie wybranych aspektów numerycznej analizy pełnomorskich platform wiertniczych, w szczególności stacjonarnych platform stalowych poddanych działaniu fal wiatrowych i wiatru. W opisie zachowania się platform uwzględniono współoddziaływanie trzech ośrodków: materiału konstrukcji, morskich fal wiatrowych i podłoża gruntowego. Przyjęcie do opisu stochastycznych właściwości...
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Editorial for the special issue on advances in forward and inverse surrogate modeling for high-frequency design
PublicationThe design of modern‐day high‐frequency devices and circuits, including microwave/RF, antenna and photonic components, historically has relied on full‐wave electromagnetic (EM) simulation tools. Initially used for design verification, EM simulations are nowadays used in the design process itself, for example, for finding optimum values of geometry and/or material parameters of the structures of interest. In a growing number of...
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Tolerance-Aware Multi-Objective Optimization of Antennas by Means of Feature-Based Regression Surrogates
PublicationAssessing the immunity of antenna design to fabrication tolerances is an important consideration, especially when the manufacturing process has not been predetermined. At the same time, the antenna parameter tuning should be oriented toward improving the performance figures pertinent to both electrical (e.g., input matching) and field properties (e.g., axial ratio bandwidth) as much as possible. Identification of available trade-offs...
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Multi-Criterial Design of Antennas with Tolerance Analysis Using Response-Feature Predictors
PublicationImperfect manufacturing is one of the factors affecting the performance of antenna systems. It is particularly important when design specifications are strict and leave a minimum leeway for a degradation caused by geometry or material parameter deviations from their nominal values. At the same time, conventional antenna design procedures routinely neglect to take the fabrication tolerances into account, which is mainly a result...
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Efficacious Alkaline Copper Corrosion Inhibition by a Mixed Ligand Copper(II) Complex of 2,2′-Bipyridine and Glycine: Electrochemical and Theoretical Studies
PublicationA mixed ligand copper(II) complex, namely, [Cu(BPy)(Gly)Cl]⋅2H2O (CuC) (BPy=2,2′-bipyridine and Gly=glycine), was synthesized and characterized. The synthesized CuC complex was tested as inhibitor to effectively mitigate the corrosion of copper in alkaline solutions using the linear sweep voltammetry (LSV) and linear polarization resistance (LPR) techniques. For the sake of comparison, such two D.C. electrochemical techniques were...