Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: forecasting
-
The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublikacjaTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
-
FORECASTING - QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Kursy Online -
Forecasting and optimalization in logistics
Kursy Online -
Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublikacjaThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
-
Forecasting energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission of Vietnam by prognostic models based on explainable machine learning and time series
PublikacjaThis study assessed the usefulness of algorithms in estimating energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Viet- nam, in which the training dataset was used to train the models linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and AdaBoost, allowing them to comprehend the patterns and relationships between population, GDP, and carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption. The results revealed that random forest, XGBoost, and AdaBoost...
-
GeoSPAR Project. Validation and selection methods of geoinformation analysis using GIS for ranking and forecasting of terrorist threats and criminal events
PublikacjaThe paper presents the description of work activities which have already been done within the first two stages – WorkPackage 1 and WorkPackage 2 - of the GeoSPAR Project. In such a context the general conceptual design of the GIS system and associate web service was presented and analysed. In addition, the operational and technical requirements for the GeoSPAR system have been specified and discussed; with special emphasis on system...
-
WRF forecasting data of severe weather event in Central Europe on 11 August 2017
Dane BadawczeThis dataset is related to the forecasting of weather conditions in Central Europe on 11 August 2017. During that day, the severe and devastating weather phenomenon (derecho) occurred in Poland. The simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with the initial and boundary conditions from the Global...
-
Using Deep Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Energy Productivity Based on Comparison of Simulation and DNN Results for Central Poland—Swietokrzyskie Voivodeship
Publikacja -
Using Deep Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Energy Productivity Based on Comparison of Simulation and DNN Results for Central Poland – Swietokrzyskie Voivodeship
Publikacja -
Bi-GRU-APSO: Bi-Directional Gated Recurrent Unit with Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Sales Forecasting in Multi-Channel Retail
PublikacjaIn the present scenario, retail sales forecasting has a great significance in E-commerce companies. The precise retail sales forecasting enhances the business decision making, storage management, and product sales. Inaccurate retail sales forecasting can decrease customer satisfaction, inventory shortages, product backlog, and unsatisfied customer demands. In order to obtain a better retail sales forecasting, deep learning models...
-
Areas of Updraft Air Motion in an Idealised Weather Research and Forecasting Model Simulation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Response to Different Floe Size Distributions
PublikacjaPresented dataset is part of a numerical modelling study focusing on the analysis of the influence of sea ice floe size distribution (FSD) on the horizontal and vertical structure of convection in the atmosphere. The total area and spatial arrangement of the up-drafts indicates that the FSD affects the total moisture content and the values of area averaged turbulent fluxes in the model domain. In fact, while convective updrafts...
-
Forecasting and optimalization in logistics (Winter23/24)
Kursy Online -
Forecasting and optimalization in logistics (Winter 22/23)
Kursy Online -
Fire Weather Index data for Poland (March – September 2019) based on high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Dane BadawczeThis dataset contains forecasted FWI indices calculated for the period: March 1 - September 30, 2019, based on the meteorological fields derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) ver. 4.2.1. For each day FWI data with the forecast range equal 24 and 48 hour were stored in GeoTIFF files. In addition, soil moisture and temperature...
-
Forecasting_and_simulations_2023_2024
Kursy Online -
Forecasting Poland`s road deaths. W: [CD-ROM]. Zbornik referatov. V. Medna- rodna Konferenca Globalna Varnost. V. International Conference Global Safe- ty. Portoroz, od 6. do 9 oktobra 2002, Slovenija. [B.m.]: ZVD, Slovene Road Safety Council**2002 [7 s. 5 rys. bibliogr. 8 poz.] Prognozowanie liczby zabitych w ruchu drogowym w Polsce.
PublikacjaW referacie przedstawiono sytuację w zakresie bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowegow Polsce oraz metodykę tworzenia długoterminowych prognoz rozwoju ryzyka w ruchu drogowym na przykładzie prognozy dla potrzeb Krajowego Programu Bez-pieczeństwa Ruchu drogowego GAMBIT 2000.
-
SafeCity – a GIS-based tool profiled for supporting decision making in urban development and infrastructure protection
PublikacjaThis paper presents a system for analysis of municipal Critical Infrastructures, which offers integrated tools for target analysis, hazard scenario simulations and spatial analysis within a remotely accessible Web-based Geographic Information System. The system has been applied to research conducted in the city of Gdansk with the aid of blast attack, chemical leakage and flood hazard scenarios, as well as a spatial density algorithm,...
-
ICT technologies and financial innovations: The case of exchange traded funds in Brazil, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and the United States
Publikacja.
-
An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy
PublikacjaW artykule sprawdzono skuteczność pojedynczego modelu logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W badaniach wykorzystano wartości 14 wskaźników finansowych oraz ich dynamikę zmiany między pierwszym a drugim, drugim a trzecim oraz trzecim a czwartym rokiem objętymi analizą. We wnioskach omówiono różnicę w skutecznościach modelu uzyskanego na wartościach statycznych oraz dynamicznych wskaźników finansowych....
-
Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublikacjaThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
-
Tracing financial innovation diffusion and substitution trajectories. Recent evidence on exchange-traded funds in Japan and South Korea.
PublikacjaSince the rapid growth of the popularity of ETFs, the potential substitution between innovative financial products, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and traditional investment funds (open-end and closed-end funds) is recognized as one of the most-discussed issues in the financial industry. This is the first study to empirically verify and compare the diffusion and substitution of ETFs using monthly data on their assets in two selected...
-
The potential of web awareness as a determinant of dually defined customer value
PublikacjaIn the conditions of increasing demand barrier, the enterprise’s basic capital is customers. From an enterprise point of view, this means the need to create a dual perceived and defined customer value which remains related to market value (income and development potential) and customer resource value (reference, information and cooperative potential). The progressing digitisation process transfers business processes, and thus relationships, into...
-
Reshaping financial systems: The role of ICT in the diffusion of financial innovations – Recent evidence from European countries
PublikacjaExchange-traded funds (ETFs) are among the fastest-growing types of innovative financial products. The emergence and spread of these instruments have been facilitated by the digital revolution. Information and communication technology (ICT) is profoundly reshaping the global economic landscape, laying solid foundations for unrestricted and unbounded flows of information and knowledge, eliminating information asymmetries, and furthering...
-
How digital technology affects working conditions in globally fragmented production chains: Evidence from Europe
PublikacjaThis paper uses a sample of over 9 million workers from 22 European countries to study the intertwined relationship between digital technology, cross-border production links and working conditions. We compare the social consequences of technological change exhibited by three types of innovation: computerisation (software), automation (robots) and artificial intelligence (AI). To fully quantify work-related wellbeing, we propose...
-
Government in the metaverse: Requirements and suitability for providing digital public services
PublikacjaDigital government comprises all means to enable governments to interact with their constituents digitally. The metaverse provides a virtual reality environment where various activities can be carried out without physically visiting the places of interest, including the public authorities. Yet, how governments can use the metaverse is unknown. This paper aims to extend the understanding of the metaverse architecture requirements...
-
Aneta Sobiechowska-Ziegert dr
OsobyPracuje w Katedrze Statystyki i Ekonometrii na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii, pasjonatka stosowania nowoczesnych metod dydaktycznych w nauczaniu przedmiotów ilościowych, dyplomowany coach i certyfikowana tutorka. Prowadzi zajęcia z prognozowania gospodarczego i ekonometrii przestrzennej. Przewodniczy Wydziałowej Komisji Jakości Kształcenia i opiekuje się ścieżką kształcenia EMOS, certyfikowaną przez Eurostat. Obecnie koordynuje...
-
Evaluation of the Macro- and Micro-Economic Factors Affecting the Financial Energy of Households
PublikacjaThis paper is an evaluation of the common macro-economic, micro-economic, and social factors affecting households’ financial situations. Moreover, the author’s objective was to develop a fuzzy logic model for forecasting fluctuations in the number of nonperforming consumer loans in a country using the example of Poland. This study represents one of the first attempts in the global literature to develop such a forecasting model...
-
Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and GDAS data as initial conditions
Dane BadawczeThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). Simulation was performed for two starting hours:...
-
Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublikacjaThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
-
Advancing Solar Energy: Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Photovoltaic Power Output
PublikacjaThis research is primarily concentrated on predicting the output of photovoitaic power, an essential field in the study of renewable energy. The paper comprehensively reviews various forecasting methodologies, transitioning from conventional physical and statistical methods to advanced machine learning (ML) techniques. A significant shift has been observed from traditional point forecasting to machine learning-based forecasting...
-
Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublikacjaThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
-
Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and ERA5 data on pressure levels as initial conditions
Dane BadawczeThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 on pressure levels. Simulation was performed for two starting hours: at 00:00 and...
-
Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and GFS data as initial conditions
Dane BadawczeThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from Global Forecast System (GFS). Simulation was performed for two starting hours: at 00:00...
-
Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and ECMWF data as initial conditions
Dane BadawczeThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Simulation was performed...
-
Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and ERA5 data on model levels as initial conditions
Dane BadawczeThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 on model levels. Simulation was performed for two starting hours: at 00:00 and 12:00...
-
Multi-level models of transport systems for traffic management
PublikacjaThe region of Pomorskie uses a variety of tools for forecasting and analysing transport. They can be operated, calibrated and updated with data that will be collected and stored in the TRISTAR system. An initiative of the Department of Highway Engineering of the Gdansk University of Technology is designed to develop and implement an integrated and hierarchical system for forecasting and analysing transport called MST (Multilevel...
-
Electricity demand prediction by multi-agent system with history-based weighting
PublikacjaEnergy and load demand forecasting in short-horizons, over an interval ranging from one hour to one week, is crucial for on-line scheduling and security functions of power system. Many load forecasting methods have been developed in recent years which are usually complex solutions with many adjustable parameters. Best-matching models and their relevant parameters have to be determined in a search procedure. We propose a hybrid...
-
Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
-
Jacek Oskarbski dr hab. inż.
OsobyAssociate professor (D.SC.Eng.) in the Department of Civil Engineering at the Gdansk University of Technology. Main research areas are traffic modeling and forecasting, transport planning, intelligent transport systems, traffic engineering, and mobility management. A graduate of the University (1994). He worked as road planner in BPBK and Transprojekt Gdański Office (1993-1996). Pposition of assistant in the Highway Engineering...
-
Applying Fuzzy Logic of Expert Knowledge for Accurate Predictive Algorithms of Customer Traffic Flows in Theme Parks
PublikacjaThis study analyzes two forecasting models based on the application of fuzzy logic and evaluates their effectiveness in predicting visitor expenditure and length of stay at a popular theme park. The forecasting models are based on a set of more than 600 decision rules constructed in the form of a complex series of IF-THEN statements. These algorithms store expert knowledge. A descriptive instrument that records the individual visitor's...
-
Modelling fatalities on regional road networks
PublikacjaDuring the last decade Poland’s road fatalities went down by 44%. The trend differs from region to region. Effective road safetymanagement in regions requires tools for forecasting road safety measures and identifying factors influencing road fatality numbers. Mathematical models can provide such tools. They take into account local characteristics such as: demography, economy, infrastructure and motorization. Such models could...
-
Mateusz Muchlado dr
OsobyMateusz Muchlado - adiunkt w Katedrze Inżynierii Zarządzania i Jakości. Stopień doktora nauk o zarządzaniu i jakości uzyskał w roku 2020 na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej broniąc pracę pt. "Outsourcing w wybranych podmiotach leczniczych województwa pomorskiego". Związany z Politechniką Gdańską od 2010 roku, absolwent kierunku "International Management", studiował w latach 2011-2012 na Otto-Friedrich-Universität...
-
Michał Bernard Pietrzak dr hab.
OsobyMichał Bernard Pietrzak jest kierownikiem Katedry Statystyki i Ekonometrii na Wydziale Ekonomii i Zarządzania Politechniki Gdańskiej oraz zastępcą redaktora naczelnego ds. oceny pod względem poprawności statystycznej czasopism: Oeconomia Copernicana i Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. Do października 2021 pracował na stanowisku profesora nadzwyczajnego na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych i Zarządzania,...
-
Anna Wendt mgr
OsobyAsystent w Katedrze Inżynierii Zarządzania i Jakości od 2017 r. Jest absolwentką kierunku Zarządzanie jakością i środowiskiem na Wydziale Zarządzania Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego. W trakcie studiów doktoranckich na Wydziale Zarządzania i Ekonomii Politechniki Gdańskiej w dyscyplinie Nauki o Zarządzaniu. Jest audytorem wewnętrznym systemów ISO 9001, 14001, 18001 oraz 22000. Ukończyła wiele kursów z zakresu zarządzania jakością i...
-
Adaptive prediction of stock exchange indices by state space wavelet networks
PublikacjaThe paper considers the forecasting of the Warsaw Stock Exchange price index WIG20 by applying a state space wavelet network model of the index price. The approach can be applied to the development of tools for predicting changes of other economic indicators, especially stock exchange indices. The paper presents a general state space wavelet network model and the underlying principles. The model is applied to produce one session...
-
ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublikacjaThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
-
Tomasz Korol dr hab. inż.
OsobyWykształcenie Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2001) University of Applied Sciences Stralsund (1999) Stopień naukowy Doktor habilitowany – Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2015) Doktor – Politechnika Gdańska, Wydział Zarządzania i Ekonomii (2004) Zatrudnienie Politechnika Gdańska: profesor uczelni (od 2019); profesor nadzwyczajny (2017-2019); adiunkt (2004-2016); asystent (2001-2004) I-Shou...
-
Consequences of russia’s military invasion of Ukraine for Polish-Ukrainian trade relations
PublikacjaAn accurate forecast of interstate trade volume allows for short-term and long-term planning, particularly deciding on state budget revenues, foreign exchange earnings, border arrangement, other infrastructure, migration and social policies. Hostilities are destructive so the russian military aggression against Ukraine in 2022 needs to be assessed in terms of its effects on key economic aspects of Polish-Ukrainian relations, as...
-
Fuel price, income and road safety as determinants of the level of the population’s economic well-being in Poland
PublikacjaThe opportunity to travel is one of the most favorite human activities, given that on a trip a person gets new knowledge, impressions and positive emotions. Recreational trips occupy a prominent place in the concept of the economics of happiness, and the study of factors that influence decision-making regarding travel is important for forecasting the number of tourists, infrastructure development, income and expenses of businesses...
-
Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublikacjaThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...