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Search results for: energy forecast
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Impact of Investments and R&D Costs in Renewable Energy Technologies on Companies’ Profitability Indicators: Assessment and Forecast
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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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Equilibrium price - modelling, forecast and application
PublicationNowoczesną gospodarkę charakteryzuje wzrastające znaczenie cen. Znajomość ogólnych zasad mechanizmu kształtującego ceny oraz analizy cen umożliwiają przedsiębiorstwom przewidzenie ceny równowagi i podjęcie przynoszącej zyski decyzji, zwłaszcza na rynku oligopolu homogenicznego, gdzie przedsiębiorcy muszą brać pod uwagę reakcję konkurencji. Przedstawiony w artykule, dynamiczny model ekonometryczny cen benzyny, na rynku paliw płynnych...
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GIS Solution for Weather Forecast Data Analysis
PublicationIn this paper authors present the GIS system for the analysis of the numerical weather prediction data. This kind of data has multidimensional character (three dimensions and time) and its analysis should consider all the available factors. Proposed GIS system consists of RASDAMAN application with implemented OLAP cube mechanism, which enables the user to process data in the spatial-time domain. It also simplifies the meteorological...
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The point forecast of the situation of the examined company on the market
PublicationOkreślono sytuację badanego przedsiębiorstwa na rynku za pomocą analizy portfolio, w aspektach wzrostu rynku oraz względnego udziału badanego przedsiębiorstwa w rynku. Analiza objęła zarówno okres retrospektywny jak i prognozowany.
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Reliability of quality forecast for hybrid metal-working machinery
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublicationWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic
PublicationProducing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation...
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Accurate modeling of layout parasitic to forecast EMI emitted from a DC-DC converter.
PublicationThis paper illustrates how to account for all parasitic due to the layout of a power converter (inductive and capacitive), in order to forecast electromagnetic interferences (EMI). The method is generic, and is validated here in the simple example of a DC-DC converter, realized on different technologies: insulated metal substrate (IMS), printed circuit board (PCB). In addition, several layouts aspects will be investigated. Conclusions...
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COVID-19 severity forecast based on machine learning and complete blood count data
PublicationProper triage of COVID-19 patients is a key factor in eective case management, especially with limited and insucient resources. In this paper, we propose a machine-aided diagnostic system to predict how badly a patient with COVID-19 will develop disease. The prognosis of this type is based on the parameters of commonly used complete blood count tests, which makes it possible to obtain data from a wide range of patients.We chose...
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COVID-19 severity forecast based on machine learning and complete blood count data
PublicationProper triage of COVID-19 patients is a key factor in eective case management, especially with limited and insucient resources. In this paper, we propose a machine-aided diagnostic system to predict how badly a patient with COVID-19 will develop disease. The prognosis of this type is based on the parameters of commonly used complete blood count tests, which makes it possible to obtain data from a wide range of patients.We chose...
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Effect of Active Mining Impact On Properties with Engineering Structures – Forecast and Final Result Discrepancies
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Effect of Forecast Climate Changes on Water Needs of Giant Miscanthus Cultivated in the Kuyavia Region in Poland
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Net electricity production by fuel (2006-2030)
Open Research DataThis dataset presents the current structure of electricity sources and a forecast of the share of individual fuels in electricity production in Poland until 2030. First of all, it should be noted the constantly growing supply of electricity. It is related to the continuous economic development, increasing consumption both by enterprises and households.
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Short clinically-based prediction model to forecast transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk state
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Exergy and Energy Analyses of Microwave Dryer for Cantaloupe Slice and Prediction of Thermodynamic Parameters Using ANN and ANFIS Algorithms
PublicationThe study targeted towards drying of cantaloupe slices with various thicknesses in a microwave dryer. The experiments were carried out at three microwave powers of 180, 360, and 540 W and three thicknesses of 2, 4, and 6 mm for cantaloupe drying, and the weight variations were determined. Artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were exploited to investigate energy and exergy indices of...
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Analysis of electricity generation variability in 2019 with special consideration of electrical energy generation from wind sources.
PublicationThis article presents issues related to the broadly understood development of wind energy. The state of the art of wind energy in the world has been discussed. This paper also shows issues related to factors affecting the development of renewable energy sources and their impact on the natural environment on the basis of available research. The focus is, however, on the critical analysis of phenomena in the data of the Transmission...
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A Dynamic Forecast Demand Scenario Analysis to Design an Automated Parcel Lockers Network in Pamplona (Spain) Using a Simulation-Optimization Model
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Effective Short -term Forecasting of Wind Farms Power
PublicationForecasting a specific wind farm's generation capacity within a 24 hour perpective requires both a reliable forecast of wind, as well as supporting tools. This tool is a dedicated model of wind farm power. This model should include not only general rules of wind to mechanical energy conversion, but also the farm's specific features. This paper present analytical, statistical, and neuron models of wind farm power. The study is based...
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The Possibility of Phase Change Materials (PCM) Usage to Increase Efficiency of the Photovoltaic Modules
PublicationSolar energy is widely available, free and inexhaustible. Furthermore this source of energy is the most friendly to the environment. For direct conversion of solar energy into useful forms like of electricity and thermal energy, respectively photovoltaic cells and solar collectors are being used. Forecast indicate that the first one solution will soon have a significant part in meeting the global energy demand. Therefore it is...
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Skuteczne prognozowanie krótkoterminowe mocy farm wiatrowych
PublicationPrognozowanie mocy wytwórczej konkretnej farmy wiatrowej (FW) w horyzoncie 24-godzinnymwymaga zarówno wiarygodnej prognozy wietrzności, jak i narzędzi wspomagających. Narzędzie to jest dedykowanym modelem mocy farmy. Model powinien uwzględniać nie tylko ogólne zasady przetwarzania energii wiatru na energię mechaniczną, ale także cechy szczególnekonkretnej farmy. Liczba czynników wpływających na moc farmy jest duża i dokładna prognozamocy,...
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublicationDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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Modelowanie systemów energetycznych wytwarzania energii elektrycznej i ciepła do celów planowania rozwoju - wybrane zagadnienia
PublicationSystemy energetyczne wymagają przemian technologicznych w kierunku neutralności klimatycznej. W Polsce, w której systemie elektroenergetycznym i systemach ciepłowniczych dominują przestarzałe elektrownie i ciepłownie węglowe, dążenie do minimalizacji wpływu na środowisko wiąże się z wysokimi kosztami. Dlatego należy szukać optymalnych ścieżek roz-woju energetyki, aby osiągnąć ambitne długoterminowe cele strategiczne, przy minimalizacji...
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Improving the prediction of biochar production from various biomass sources through the implementation of eXplainable machine learning approaches
PublicationExamining the game-changing possibilities of explainable machine learning techniques, this study explores the fast-growing area of biochar production prediction. The paper demonstrates how recent advances in sensitivity analysis methodology, optimization of training hyperparameters, and state-of-the-art ensemble techniques have greatly simplified and enhanced the forecasting of biochar output and composition from various biomass...
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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Intensification of catechin extraction from the bark of Syzygium cumini using ultrasonication: Optimization, characterization, degradation analysis and kinetic studies
PublicationCatechin is a prominent polyphenolic component that possesses various medicinal properties. Present work communicates the intensification and optimization of catechin extraction from the bark of Syzygium cumini tree using stirred reactor, soxhlet, ultrasonic bath, and ultrasonic horn technique. The optimization of several parameters such as type of solvent, solid to solvent ratio (1:100 w/v), speed of agitation (300 RPM), extraction...
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Application of MARKAL model to optimisation of electricity generation structure in Poland in the long-term time horizon. Part II. Model and forecasts assumptions
PublicationIn this paper, the next in a series of publications on the subject, assumptions are presented of a power system development model in terms of electricity generation technology infrastructure in Poland, in the long term perspective until 2060. The model is based on the mathematical structure of the MARKAL optimization package. Among other things developed are a forecast of the final demand for electricity and heat, the current...
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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Forecast of basic fuel prices in imports to Poland (constant prices in USD in 2007)
Open Research DataThis dataset presents price growth forecasts for conventional energy sources. It should be noted that the Ministry of Economy forecasts a more than two-fold increase in oil prices (although these forecasts may be greatly underestimated) over 23 years, an almost two-fold increase in natural gas prices and a 40% increase in coal prices.
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A MODEL FOR FORECASTING PM10 LEVELS WITH THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PublicationThis work presents a method of forecasting the level of PM10 with the use of artificial neural networks. Current level of particulate matter and meteorological data was taken into account in the construction of the model (checked the correlation of each variable and the future level of PM10), and unidirectional networks were used to implement it due to their ease of learning. Then, the configuration of the network (built on the...
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Consequences of russia’s military invasion of Ukraine for Polish-Ukrainian trade relations
PublicationAn accurate forecast of interstate trade volume allows for short-term and long-term planning, particularly deciding on state budget revenues, foreign exchange earnings, border arrangement, other infrastructure, migration and social policies. Hostilities are destructive so the russian military aggression against Ukraine in 2022 needs to be assessed in terms of its effects on key economic aspects of Polish-Ukrainian relations, as...
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Modeling process of planning finished product sales volumes at industrial enterprises in modern economic conditions
PublicationThis article presents improving the existing system of planning finished products sales volumes. The influencing factors of the sales volumes in modern economic conditions have been determined: falling world oil prices, the reduction of pipe consumption in the domestic market, the global pandemic. The algorithm of planning finished products sales volumes has been constructed. Calculations based on the Holt forecasting method has...
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Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?
PublicationWe compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire...
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The effects of selected factors on regional road fatalities – analysis of the Łódź region
PublicationAnalysis of regional accident records shows that a country’s national road safety programme does not have the same effect in each of its regions. What may be a serious problem in one region may be of marginal significance in another. Polish and international experience shows that main risk groups and types of accidents related to the level of development and quality of the road network differ from region to region. The conclusion...
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Sailing Vessel Routing Considering Safety Zone and Penalty Time for Altering Course
PublicationIn this paper we introduce new model for simulation sea vessel routing. Besides a vessel types (polar diagram) and weather forecast, travel security and the number of maneuvers are considered. Based on these data both the minimal travelling costs and the minimal processing time are found for different vessels and different routes. To test our model the applications SailingAssistance wad improved. The obtained results shows that...
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Capacity analysis of the selected track system in partially ordered space
PublicationA proper location of the interval sections has significant impact on the traffic flow in the railway track network. This issue is critical during line modernization as well as when a new solution accounting for the traffic forecast at particular element of the railway track network is developed . However, the situation is more complex and more expensive for railway stations since improvement of the capacity requires critical organizational...
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System numerycznej prognozy pogody oparty na pakiecie WRF EMS
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono zagadnienia dotyczące wykorzystania systemów numerycznego prognozowania pogody przy pomocy oprogramowania wchodzącego w skład pakietu WRF EMS (ang. Weather Research and Forecast Environmental Modeling System). Artykuł opisuje podstawowe równania modelujące procesy w atmosferze oraz architekturę systemu numerycznego prognozowania pogody WRF EMS. Przedstawiono także architekturę prototypu systemu informacji...
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublicationPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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Application of Support Vector Machine for Determination of Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Buildings
PublicationThe aim of the article is to present an algorithm of Support Vector Machine created to forecast the impact of traffic-induced vibrations on residential buildings. The method is designed to classify the object into one of two classes. The classification into the first class means that there is no impact of vibrations on the building, while classification to the second class indicates the possible influence and suggests the execution...
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Operational Enhancement of Numerical Weather Prediction with Data from Real-time Satellite Images
PublicationNumerical weather prediction (NWP) is a rapidly expanding field of science, which is related to meteorology, remote sensing and computer science. Authors present methods of enhancing WRF EMS (Weather Research and Forecast Environmental Modeling System) weather prediction system using data from satellites equipped with AMSU sensor (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit). The data is acquired with Department of Geoinformatics’ ground...
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Application of Multivariate Analysis Methods in Welding Engineering
PublicationPhenomena and processes taking place during welding are usually very complex and, for this reason, should be described using multivariate methods. The article discusses the methodological basis and selected application areas as regards the solving of welding problems using statistical multivariate methods. In addition, the article presents exemplary applications of the design of experiment, multiple regression analysis, cluster...
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The multivariate multilevel analisis of different regional factors impact on road saferty in european country regions = Wielopoziomowa analiza wieloczynnikowa wpływu różnych charakterystyk regionalnych na poziom bezpieczeństwo ruchu w regionach krajów europejskich
PublicationIn this research, the effect of the European regional differences on the risk of been killed in road accident in these regions is investigated. Factors which differentiate regions can be described as automotive, economic, infrastructural, demographic, geographic. Analyzed risk, counted as regional fatality rate was modeled by the Poisson model. Because of regional diversity of Poisson distribution parameters, the Poisson distribution...
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Analysis and bioanalysis: an effective tool for data collection of environmental conditions and processes
PublicationReliable information that allows us to estimate the state of the environment and to forecast changes in the ecosystem are constantly required. Increasing environmental consciousness and dynamic development of analytical techniques are the main reasons for determining the wide range of pollutants occurring at very low concentrations in complex matrix samples. The presence and concentration of many of those pollutants in the environment...
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A multi-agent method for periodicity detection in distributed events
PublicationMulti-agent systems working in constantly changing environments may be challenged by instantaneous unavailability of their autonomous agents caused e.g. by limited computing resources. A new method of self-organization of distributed service components is proposed, suitable for multi-agent systems. This method relies on particular agents carrying out separate analyzes of their individual processing loads or other specific events....
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Road safety information system in Poland - supporting tools and their development
PublicationAs a signatory to the UN Declaration on road safety and member of the EU, Poland has an obligation to comply with relevant EU policies and in particular to halve the overall number of road deaths by 2020. To monitor the progress in reaching the targets, the road safety situation must be evaluated and its processes understood. For this purpose regional and national road safety observatories were launched in Poland, which triggered...
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CUTTING POWER FORECASTING WHILE WOOD SAWING: FRACTURE MECHANICS APPROACH AND AXELSSON’S MODEL COMPARISON
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Another way is to forecast cutting power consumption on...
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Predicting the impact of traffic–induced vibrations on buildings using artificial neural networks
PublicationTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to a building, cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load–bearing elements or even a global structural collapse of the whole structure [1-4]. Vibrations measurements of real structures are costly and laborious, not justified in all cases. The aim of the paper is to create an original algorithm, to predict the negative dynamic impact on the examined residential building...
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Metodologia budowy modelu sieci połączonych systemów UCTE i obliczania wskaźników służączych do oceny zagrożeń współpracy systemu europejskiego.
PublicationLiberalizacja rynku energii doprowadziła do znacznego zwiększenia obrotów energią elektryczną pomiędzy systemami elektroenergetycznymi. Operatorzy Systemów Przesyłowych są zobligowania do prognozowania rozpływow mocy w połączonych systemach i identyfikowania zagrożeń systemowych nawet w cyklach dobowych - na dzień nastepny. w referacie zostana omówione elementy występujące w procesie tworzenia modelu sieci przesyłowej systemów...