Search
Search results for: forecasting
-
Knowledge Transfer Platform FindFISH – Numerical Forecasting System for the Marine Environment of the Gulf of Gdańsk for Fisheries
PublicationFast access to expert knowledge is very valuable, especially in the context of decision-making. Fishermen can use this knowledge to diagnose hydrological and hydrochemical conditions in which fish stocks should be the most abundant. In response to this need, a digital service has been developed. It is a service created within the FindFISH project, which pro- vides the results of all developed models: hydrodynamic, biochemical,...
-
Stormwater and snowmelt runoff storage control and flash flood hazard forecasting in the urbanized coastal basin.
PublicationCity of Gdańsk is located in a coastal region where changing climatic conditions increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Developing urbanization affects the hydrology of natural basins by simplification of the drainage system and reduction of infiltration and base flow. Consequently greater runoff rates flow into storm water collection systems, reservoirs and surrounding water bodies. Not only infrastructures of urban...
-
CUTTING POWER FORECASTING WHILE WOOD SAWING: FRACTURE MECHANICS APPROACH AND AXELSSON’S MODEL COMPARISON
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Another way is to forecast cutting power consumption on...
-
Forecasting and Simulations_2024_2025
e-Learning Courses -
Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
Journals -
Day-ahead Solar Power Forecasting Using LightGBM and Self-Attention Based Encoder-Decoder Networks
PublicationThe burgeoning trend of integrating renewable energy harvesters into the grid introduces critical issues for its reliability and stability. These issues arise from the stochastic and intermittent nature of renewable energy sources. Data-driven forecasting tools are indispensable in mitigating these challenges with their rugged performance. However, tools relying solely on data-driven methods often underperform when an adequate...
-
Hybrid Inception-embedded deep neural network ResNet for short and medium-term PV-Wind forecasting
Publication -
Hybrid forecasting models for wind-PV systems in diverse geographical locations: Performance and power potential analysis
Publication -
The Effectiveness of Catching Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae: Noctuinae) (= Agrotinae) in Pheromone Traps and Light Traps, for Short-Term Forecasting
Publication -
The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublicationTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
-
FORECASTING - QUANTITATIVE METHODS
e-Learning Courses -
Forecasting and optimalization in logistics
e-Learning Courses -
Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublicationThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
-
Forecasting energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission of Vietnam by prognostic models based on explainable machine learning and time series
PublicationThis study assessed the usefulness of algorithms in estimating energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Viet- nam, in which the training dataset was used to train the models linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and AdaBoost, allowing them to comprehend the patterns and relationships between population, GDP, and carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption. The results revealed that random forest, XGBoost, and AdaBoost...
-
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Publication -
GeoSPAR Project. Validation and selection methods of geoinformation analysis using GIS for ranking and forecasting of terrorist threats and criminal events
PublicationThe paper presents the description of work activities which have already been done within the first two stages – WorkPackage 1 and WorkPackage 2 - of the GeoSPAR Project. In such a context the general conceptual design of the GIS system and associate web service was presented and analysed. In addition, the operational and technical requirements for the GeoSPAR system have been specified and discussed; with special emphasis on system...
-
WRF forecasting data of severe weather event in Central Europe on 11 August 2017
Open Research DataThis dataset is related to the forecasting of weather conditions in Central Europe on 11 August 2017. During that day, the severe and devastating weather phenomenon (derecho) occurred in Poland. The simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with the initial and boundary conditions from the Global...
-
Optimization of Division and Reconfiguration Locations of the Medium-Voltage Power Grid Based on Forecasting the Level of Load and Generation from Renewable Energy Sources
PublicationThe article addresses challenges in optimizing the operation of medium voltage networks, emphasizing optimizing network division points and selecting the best network configuration for minimizing power and energy losses. It critically reviews recent research on the issue of network configuration optimization. The optimization of the medium voltage power grid reconfiguration process was carried out using known optimization tools....
-
Using Deep Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Energy Productivity Based on Comparison of Simulation and DNN Results for Central Poland—Swietokrzyskie Voivodeship
Publication -
Using Deep Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Energy Productivity Based on Comparison of Simulation and DNN Results for Central Poland – Swietokrzyskie Voivodeship
Publication -
Bi-GRU-APSO: Bi-Directional Gated Recurrent Unit with Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Sales Forecasting in Multi-Channel Retail
PublicationIn the present scenario, retail sales forecasting has a great significance in E-commerce companies. The precise retail sales forecasting enhances the business decision making, storage management, and product sales. Inaccurate retail sales forecasting can decrease customer satisfaction, inventory shortages, product backlog, and unsatisfied customer demands. In order to obtain a better retail sales forecasting, deep learning models...
-
Areas of Updraft Air Motion in an Idealised Weather Research and Forecasting Model Simulation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Response to Different Floe Size Distributions
PublicationPresented dataset is part of a numerical modelling study focusing on the analysis of the influence of sea ice floe size distribution (FSD) on the horizontal and vertical structure of convection in the atmosphere. The total area and spatial arrangement of the up-drafts indicates that the FSD affects the total moisture content and the values of area averaged turbulent fluxes in the model domain. In fact, while convective updrafts...
-
Forecasting and optimalization in logistics (Winter23/24)
e-Learning Courses -
Fire Weather Index data for Poland (March – September 2019) based on high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Open Research DataThis dataset contains forecasted FWI indices calculated for the period: March 1 - September 30, 2019, based on the meteorological fields derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) ver. 4.2.1. For each day FWI data with the forecast range equal 24 and 48 hour were stored in GeoTIFF files. In addition, soil moisture and temperature...
-
Forecasting and optimalization in logistics (Winter 22/23)
e-Learning Courses -
Forecasting and optimalization in logistics (Winter 24/25)
e-Learning Courses -
Forecasting_and_simulations_2023_2024
e-Learning Courses -
Forecasting Poland`s road deaths. W: [CD-ROM]. Zbornik referatov. V. Medna- rodna Konferenca Globalna Varnost. V. International Conference Global Safe- ty. Portoroz, od 6. do 9 oktobra 2002, Slovenija. [B.m.]: ZVD, Slovene Road Safety Council**2002 [7 s. 5 rys. bibliogr. 8 poz.] Prognozowanie liczby zabitych w ruchu drogowym w Polsce.
PublicationW referacie przedstawiono sytuację w zakresie bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowegow Polsce oraz metodykę tworzenia długoterminowych prognoz rozwoju ryzyka w ruchu drogowym na przykładzie prognozy dla potrzeb Krajowego Programu Bez-pieczeństwa Ruchu drogowego GAMBIT 2000.
-
Tracing financial innovation diffusion and substitution trajectories. Recent evidence on exchange-traded funds in Japan and South Korea.
PublicationSince the rapid growth of the popularity of ETFs, the potential substitution between innovative financial products, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and traditional investment funds (open-end and closed-end funds) is recognized as one of the most-discussed issues in the financial industry. This is the first study to empirically verify and compare the diffusion and substitution of ETFs using monthly data on their assets in two selected...
-
Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
-
How digital technology affects working conditions in globally fragmented production chains: Evidence from Europe
PublicationThis paper uses a sample of over 9 million workers from 22 European countries to study the intertwined relationship between digital technology, cross-border production links and working conditions. We compare the social consequences of technological change exhibited by three types of innovation: computerisation (software), automation (robots) and artificial intelligence (AI). To fully quantify work-related wellbeing, we propose...
-
Government in the metaverse: Requirements and suitability for providing digital public services
PublicationDigital government comprises all means to enable governments to interact with their constituents digitally. The metaverse provides a virtual reality environment where various activities can be carried out without physically visiting the places of interest, including the public authorities. Yet, how governments can use the metaverse is unknown. This paper aims to extend the understanding of the metaverse architecture requirements...
-
SafeCity – a GIS-based tool profiled for supporting decision making in urban development and infrastructure protection
PublicationThis paper presents a system for analysis of municipal Critical Infrastructures, which offers integrated tools for target analysis, hazard scenario simulations and spatial analysis within a remotely accessible Web-based Geographic Information System. The system has been applied to research conducted in the city of Gdansk with the aid of blast attack, chemical leakage and flood hazard scenarios, as well as a spatial density algorithm,...
-
An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy
PublicationW artykule sprawdzono skuteczność pojedynczego modelu logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W badaniach wykorzystano wartości 14 wskaźników finansowych oraz ich dynamikę zmiany między pierwszym a drugim, drugim a trzecim oraz trzecim a czwartym rokiem objętymi analizą. We wnioskach omówiono różnicę w skutecznościach modelu uzyskanego na wartościach statycznych oraz dynamicznych wskaźników finansowych....
-
ICT technologies and financial innovations: The case of exchange traded funds in Brazil, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and the United States
Publication.
-
The potential of web awareness as a determinant of dually defined customer value
PublicationIn the conditions of increasing demand barrier, the enterprise’s basic capital is customers. From an enterprise point of view, this means the need to create a dual perceived and defined customer value which remains related to market value (income and development potential) and customer resource value (reference, information and cooperative potential). The progressing digitisation process transfers business processes, and thus relationships, into...
-
Reshaping financial systems: The role of ICT in the diffusion of financial innovations – Recent evidence from European countries
PublicationExchange-traded funds (ETFs) are among the fastest-growing types of innovative financial products. The emergence and spread of these instruments have been facilitated by the digital revolution. Information and communication technology (ICT) is profoundly reshaping the global economic landscape, laying solid foundations for unrestricted and unbounded flows of information and knowledge, eliminating information asymmetries, and furthering...
-
Aneta Sobiechowska-Ziegert dr
PeopleShe works at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at the Faculty of Management and Economics. She is passionate about using modern teaching methods in quantitative subjects. She is a certified coach and tutor. She teaches courses in economic forecasting and spatial econometrics. She is also the chair of the Faculty's Quality of Education Committee and oversees the EMOS education track, certified by Eurostat. Currently,...
-
Evaluation of the Macro- and Micro-Economic Factors Affecting the Financial Energy of Households
PublicationThis paper is an evaluation of the common macro-economic, micro-economic, and social factors affecting households’ financial situations. Moreover, the author’s objective was to develop a fuzzy logic model for forecasting fluctuations in the number of nonperforming consumer loans in a country using the example of Poland. This study represents one of the first attempts in the global literature to develop such a forecasting model...
-
Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and GDAS data as initial conditions
Open Research DataThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). Simulation was performed for two starting hours:...
-
Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublicationThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
-
Advancing Solar Energy: Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Photovoltaic Power Output
PublicationThis research is primarily concentrated on predicting the output of photovoitaic power, an essential field in the study of renewable energy. The paper comprehensively reviews various forecasting methodologies, transitioning from conventional physical and statistical methods to advanced machine learning (ML) techniques. A significant shift has been observed from traditional point forecasting to machine learning-based forecasting...
-
Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
-
Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and ERA5 data on pressure levels as initial conditions
Open Research DataThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 on pressure levels. Simulation was performed for two starting hours: at 00:00 and...
-
Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and GFS data as initial conditions
Open Research DataThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from Global Forecast System (GFS). Simulation was performed for two starting hours: at 00:00...
-
Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and ECMWF data as initial conditions
Open Research DataThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Simulation was performed...
-
Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and ERA5 data on model levels as initial conditions
Open Research DataThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 on model levels. Simulation was performed for two starting hours: at 00:00 and 12:00...
-
Jacek Oskarbski dr hab. inż.
PeopleAssociate professor (D.SC.Eng.) in the Department of Civil Engineering at the Gdansk University of Technology. Main research areas are traffic modeling and forecasting, transport planning, intelligent transport systems, traffic engineering, and mobility management. A graduate of the University (1994). He worked as road planner in BPBK and Transprojekt Gdański Office (1993-1996). Pposition of assistant in the Highway Engineering...
-
Multi-level models of transport systems for traffic management
PublicationThe region of Pomorskie uses a variety of tools for forecasting and analysing transport. They can be operated, calibrated and updated with data that will be collected and stored in the TRISTAR system. An initiative of the Department of Highway Engineering of the Gdansk University of Technology is designed to develop and implement an integrated and hierarchical system for forecasting and analysing transport called MST (Multilevel...
-
Electricity demand prediction by multi-agent system with history-based weighting
PublicationEnergy and load demand forecasting in short-horizons, over an interval ranging from one hour to one week, is crucial for on-line scheduling and security functions of power system. Many load forecasting methods have been developed in recent years which are usually complex solutions with many adjustable parameters. Best-matching models and their relevant parameters have to be determined in a search procedure. We propose a hybrid...