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Search results for: forecasting
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Forecasting
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WEATHER AND FORECASTING
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JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
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TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
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FORECASTING ELECTRICITY PRICES IN POLAND
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FORECASTING BIOGAS FORMATION IN LANDFILLS
Publication: The aim of the present research was to develop a mathematical model for estimating the amount of viscous gas generated as a function of weather conditions. Due to the lack of models for predicting gas formation caused by sudden changes in weather conditions in the literature, such a model was developed in this study using the parameters of landfills recorded for over a year. The effect of temperature on landfill gas production...
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
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Forecasting risks and challenges of digital innovations
PublicationForecasting and assessment of societal risks related to digital innovation systems and services is an urgent problem, because these solutions usually contain artificial intelligence algorithms which learn using data from the environment and modify their behaviour much beyond human control. Digital innovation solutions are increasingly deployed in transport, business and administrative domains, and therefore, if abused by a malicious...
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A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios
PublicationThis paper is devoted to the issue of forecasting financial ratios. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology, i.e., fuzzy logic theory, and to evaluate its effectiveness. Fuzzy logic has been widely used in machinery, robotics and industrial engineering. This paper introduces the use of fuzzy logic for the financial analysis of enterprises. While many current...
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Forecasting of the Employment Rate in the EU ICT Field
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Forecasting of fatigue life of laser welded joints
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono podstawowe dane na temat stalowych paneli typu sandwich. Zaprezentowano wyniki testów zmęczeniowych elementarnych połączeń teowych spawanych laserowo. Omówiono szczegółowo te cechy, które mają istotny wpływ na statyczne i zmęczeniowe własności złącza. Na podstawie przedstawionych wyników badań zmęczeniowych elementarnych połączeń spawanych laserowo uzyskano krzywą projektową S-N dla jednego z pokazanych modeli...
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Increasing rail life by forecasting fatigue failure.
PublicationReferat poświęcony jest przedłużaniu żywotności szyn i obejmuje zagadnienia prognozowania liczby pęknięć a także planowania szlifowań szyn. Dane pomiarowe pochodzą z wieloletnich badań przeprowadzonych w Katedrze Inżynierii Kolejowej Politechniki Gdańskiej na liniach magistralnych PKP.
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The investment risk forecasting in a local energy market
PublicationThe paper considers the general problems faced when evaluating the risk of investing in a local energy market by computer tools. The proposal formulated for the emerging local energy markets suggests broadening the method of evaluating investment risk so as to include elements of cluster analysis. The paper also discusses the significance of estimating investment risk in market terms and the importance and range of the local energy...
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Effective Short -term Forecasting of Wind Farms Power
PublicationForecasting a specific wind farm's generation capacity within a 24 hour perpective requires both a reliable forecast of wind, as well as supporting tools. This tool is a dedicated model of wind farm power. This model should include not only general rules of wind to mechanical energy conversion, but also the farm's specific features. This paper present analytical, statistical, and neuron models of wind farm power. The study is based...
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Application of Bayesian Networks for Forecasting Future Model of Farm
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Application of dynamic factor models for inflation forecasting in Poland
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Estimating and Forecasting GDP in Poland with Dynamic Factor Model
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The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting
PublicationThe article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive...
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublicationDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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A MODEL FOR FORECASTING PM10 LEVELS WITH THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
PublicationThis work presents a method of forecasting the level of PM10 with the use of artificial neural networks. Current level of particulate matter and meteorological data was taken into account in the construction of the model (checked the correlation of each variable and the future level of PM10), and unidirectional networks were used to implement it due to their ease of learning. Then, the configuration of the network (built on the...
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An Innovative Approach to the Forecasting of Energetic Effects While Wood Sawing
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specifi c cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, the cutting forces (power) problem may be tackled with an innovative, up-to-date fundamental analysis of the mechanics of sawing based on modern fracture mechanics....
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An innovative approach to the forecasting of energetic effects while wood sawing
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, the cutting forces (power) problem may be tackled with an innovative, up-to-date fundamental analysis of the mechanics of sawing based on modern fracture...
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Forecasting demand for products in distribution networks using R software
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The original method of cutting power forecasting while wood sawing
PublicationEfekty energetyczne procesu przecinania drewna piłami (siły skrawania i moc skrawania) przy klasycznym podejściu do zagadnienia są określane na podstawie wartości właściwego powierzchniowego oporu skrawania. Z drugiej strony siły skrawania można rozważać z punktu widzenia współczesnej mechaniki pękania. Prognozowanie wartości kąta ścinania z zastosowaniem modeli uwzględniających wiązkość materiału obrabianego, ścinanie w płaszczyźnie...
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Forecasting of currency exchange rates using artificial neural networks
PublicationW rozdziale tym autor przedstawił wyniki swoich badań nad wykorzystaniem sztucznych sieci neuronowych do prognozowania kursu walut (na przykładzie pary walutowej PLN-USD).Głównym celem badań było porównanie skuteczności przewidywania kursu złotówki w latach 1997 - 2005 przy pomocy różnych rodzajów sieci neuronowych.
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Upper Limb Bionic Orthoses: General Overview and Forecasting Changes
PublicationUsing robotics in modern medicine is slowly becoming a common practice. However, there are still important life science fields which are currently devoid of such advanced technology. A noteworthy example of a life sciences field which would benefit from process automation and advanced robotic technology is rehabilitation of the upper limb with the use of an orthosis. Here, we present the state-of-the-art and prospects for development...
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Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of statistical methods in forecasting the financial energy of households. The study’s objective is to create the innovative ratios that combine both financial and demographic information of households and implement them in the forecasting models. To conduct this objective, six forecasting models are developed using three different methods—discriminant analysis, logit analysis, and decision trees...
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Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting
PublicationThis paper examines ownership equity as a predictor of future business failure within the tourism and hospitality sectors. The main goals of this study were to examine which ratios are the most important for a tourism business failure forecasting model and how significant is the “total percentage of equity ownership by company directors” ratio compared with other ratios associated with the probability of bankruptcy. A stepwise...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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The influence of electromagnetic pollution on living organisms – historical trends and forecasting changes
PublicationCurrent technologies have become a source of omnipresent electromagnetic pollution from generated electromagnetic fields and resulting electromagnetic radiation. In many cases this pollution is much stronger than any natural sources of electromagnetic fields or radiation. Wireless and radio communication, electric power transmission or devices in daily use such as smartphones, tablets and portable computers every day expose people...
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Hydrological Forecasting in the Oder Estuary using a Three- Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model
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Artificial-Hand Technology—Current State of Knowledge in Designing and Forecasting Changes
PublicationThe subject of human-hand versatility has been intensively investigated for many years. Emerging robotic constructions change continuously in order to mimic natural mechanisms as accurately as possible. Such an attitude is motivated by the demand for humanoid robots with sophisticated end effectors and highly biomimic prostheses. This paper provides wide analysis of more than 80 devices that have been created over the last 40 years....
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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The application of neural networks in forecasting the influence of traffic-induced vibrations on residential buildings
PublicationTraffic-induced vibrations may cause the cracking of plaster, damage to structural elements and, in extreme cases, may even lead to the structural collapse of residential buildings. The aim of this article is to analyse the effectiveness of a method of forecasting the impact of vibrations on residential buildings using the concept of artificial intelligence. The article presents several alternative forecasting systems for which...
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Comparing the Effectiveness of ANNs and SVMs in Forecasting the Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Building
PublicationTraffic - induced vibrations may cause damage to structural elements and may even lead to structural collapse. The aim of the article is to compare the effectiveness of algorithms in forecasting the impact of vibrations on buildings using the Machine Learning (ML) methods. The paper presents two alternative approaches by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). Factors that may affect traffic-induced...
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Forecasting of railway track tamping based on settlement of sleepers using fuzzy logic
PublicationThe sleepers in a railway track transfer vertical, transverse and longitudinal loads to the track ballast and subgrade. The sleepers allow for keeping the distance between the rails constant. The thickness of ballast should be between 16 and 35 cm depending on the design standard of the track, and it should be densified where the ballast supports the sleeper. The exploitation causes contamination of the ballast, crushing the material...
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Application of time-series-cross-section data in case of sale forecasting in an enterprise
PublicationW artykule wskazano możliwości wykorzystania danych przestrzenno-czasowych do prognozowania sprzedaży w przedsiębiorstwie. Przedstawiono różne podejścia do prognozowania ekonometrycznego przy użyciu tego typu danych. Wyznaczono krótkookresowe prognozy sprzedaży benzyny bezołowiowej Pb95 w przekroju województw oraz dokonano oceny ich jakości przy użyciu mierników ex-post. Dwie najdokładniejsze metody prognozowania wykorzystano do...
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A Proposed Machine Learning Model for Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Buildings
PublicationTraffic-induced vibrations may cause various damages to buildings located near the road, including cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real buildings are costly and laborious. Therefore the aim of the research is to propose the original numerical algorithm which allows us to predict, with high probability, the nega-tive dynamic impact of traffic-induced...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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Interactive visualization of marine pollution monitoring and forecasting data via a Web-based GIS
PublicationArtykuł prezentuje zastosowanie sieciowego Systemu Informacji Geograficznej do monitoringu i prezentacji wyników modelowania plam ropy na morzu. Omawiany system wykorzystuje technologie ESRI ArcIMS (Arc Internet Map Server) oraz Open Source GeoServer z biblioteką klienta OpenLayers w celu wizualizacji i mapowania rozprzestrzeniania się wycieku ropy w dwóch wybranych obszarach Morza Egejskiego w Grecji. Przedstawiony GIS stanowi...
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Artificial Neural Network in Forecasting the Churn Phenomena Among Costumers of IT and Power Supply Services
PublicationThis paper presents an attempt to use an artificial neural network to investigate the churn phenomenon among the customers of a telecommunications operator. An attempt was made to create a data model based on the customer lifetime value (CLV) rather than on activity alone. A multilayered artificial neural network was used for the experiments. The results yielded a 99% successful identification rate for customers in no danger of...
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Selected Aspects of Biofuels Market and the Electromobility Development in Poland: Current Trends and Forecasting Changes
PublicationThis work presents basic information associated with markets of selected alternative fuels used in transport, such as methyl esters, conventional bioethanol and lignocellulosic bioethanol, and the market of electrical vehicles. Legal conditions, which stimulate development and regulate the mode of functioning of the liquid biofuel market until 2020 are discussed, based on provisions of EU directives. Data on biofuel production...
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CUTTING POWER FORECASTING WHILE WOOD SAWING: FRACTURE MECHANICS APPROACH AND AXELSSON’S MODEL COMPARISON
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Another way is to forecast cutting power consumption on...
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Stormwater and snowmelt runoff storage control and flash flood hazard forecasting in the urbanized coastal basin.
PublicationCity of Gdańsk is located in a coastal region where changing climatic conditions increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Developing urbanization affects the hydrology of natural basins by simplification of the drainage system and reduction of infiltration and base flow. Consequently greater runoff rates flow into storm water collection systems, reservoirs and surrounding water bodies. Not only infrastructures of urban...
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Forecasting values of cutting power for the sawing process of impregnated pine wood on band sawing machine
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono prognozowane wartości mocy skrawania dla pilarki taśmowej (ST100R firmy STENNER), które są stosowane w polskich tartakach. Wartości mocy skrawania oszacowano dla drewna sosny zwyczajnej (Pinus sylvestris L.), które zostało poddane impregnacji. Dla porównania wyznaczono również wartości mocy skrawania dla drewna niezaimpregnowanego. Wartości te określono za pomocą innowacyjnej metody prognozowania sił skrawania,...
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Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
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The Effectiveness of Catching Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae: Noctuinae) (= Agrotinae) in Pheromone Traps and Light Traps, for Short-Term Forecasting
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The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublicationTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
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FORECASTING - QUANTITATIVE METHODS
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