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Search results for: INFLATION FORECASTS
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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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CONSUMERS’ APPROACH TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE INFLATION FORECASTS PUBLISHED BY CENTRAL BANKS: A NEW METHODOLOGICAL SOLUTION
PublicationModern monetary policy focuses on credibility and shaping inflation expectations. In keeping with the concept of inflation forecast targeting, the inflation forecasts published by central banks play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision-making process and may be treated as a specific intermediate target. This study proposes an inflation forecast credibility index, the scope of which is narrowed to non-specialists’ approach...
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Outlier Detection with the Use of Isolation Forests
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Can Inflation Forecast and Monetary Policy Path be Really Useful? The Case of the Czech Republic
PublicationProducing and revealing inflation forecast is belie ved to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation...
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The forecasts-based instrument rule and decision making. How closely interlinked? The case of Sweden
PublicationResearch background: The Central Bank of Sweden declared in years 1999–2006 the implementation of the Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT). It means that the repo rate decision-making process depends on the inflation forecasts. The concept evolved from the strict IFT with the decision-making algorithm called ‘the rule of thumb’ to the flexible IFT. Purpose of the article: The aim of...
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Forecasts of the managed futures market – an empirical analysis
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Equilibrium price - modelling, forecast and application
PublicationNowoczesną gospodarkę charakteryzuje wzrastające znaczenie cen. Znajomość ogólnych zasad mechanizmu kształtującego ceny oraz analizy cen umożliwiają przedsiębiorstwom przewidzenie ceny równowagi i podjęcie przynoszącej zyski decyzji, zwłaszcza na rynku oligopolu homogenicznego, gdzie przedsiębiorcy muszą brać pod uwagę reakcję konkurencji. Przedstawiony w artykule, dynamiczny model ekonometryczny cen benzyny, na rynku paliw płynnych...
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Prediction of consumer electricity needs based on Internet weather forecasts
PublicationElectrical energy is considered both as an important driver for producing and transporting goods in companies, as well as a good in itself which requires planning and management for generating and delivering it to consumers in proper time and amounts. Weather information can be considered to convey part of the data on energy delivery needs of consumers. Free meteorological data sources on the Web do not offer consistent data to...
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GIS Solution for Weather Forecast Data Analysis
PublicationIn this paper authors present the GIS system for the analysis of the numerical weather prediction data. This kind of data has multidimensional character (three dimensions and time) and its analysis should consider all the available factors. Proposed GIS system consists of RASDAMAN application with implemented OLAP cube mechanism, which enables the user to process data in the spatial-time domain. It also simplifies the meteorological...
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The point forecast of the situation of the examined company on the market
PublicationOkreślono sytuację badanego przedsiębiorstwa na rynku za pomocą analizy portfolio, w aspektach wzrostu rynku oraz względnego udziału badanego przedsiębiorstwa w rynku. Analiza objęła zarówno okres retrospektywny jak i prognozowany.
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Reliability of quality forecast for hybrid metal-working machinery
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublicationWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Application of dynamic factor models for inflation forecasting in Poland
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INFLUENCE OF LOAD AND INFLATION PRESSURE ON THE TYRE ROLLING RESISTANCE
PublicationTyre load and inflation pressure are important factors controlling rolling resistance of road vehicles. The article presents results obtained in the Technical University of Gdańsk during laboratory and road measurements of different car tyres rolling on different pavements. The knowledge of rolling resistance characteristics is important for modelling car dynamics as well as fuel consumption. It is also necessary to establish proper...
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SPATIAL APPROACH TO HETEROGENEITY OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE EURO AREA
PublicationIn this article, we examine the spatial heterogeneities in inflation expectations of the euro area consumers. We expect to find them heterogeneous in our research period of 2001-2016. Contrary to standard examination of heterogeneity, a spatial correlation analysis is applied by referring to global and local correlation measures. It is performed with the economic distance-based weights (the difference in HICP rates). Application...
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HCV Infection in Poland
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Effect of Active Mining Impact On Properties with Engineering Structures – Forecast and Final Result Discrepancies
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Accurate modeling of layout parasitic to forecast EMI emitted from a DC-DC converter.
PublicationThis paper illustrates how to account for all parasitic due to the layout of a power converter (inductive and capacitive), in order to forecast electromagnetic interferences (EMI). The method is generic, and is validated here in the simple example of a DC-DC converter, realized on different technologies: insulated metal substrate (IMS), printed circuit board (PCB). In addition, several layouts aspects will be investigated. Conclusions...
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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COVID-19 severity forecast based on machine learning and complete blood count data
PublicationProper triage of COVID-19 patients is a key factor in eective case management, especially with limited and insucient resources. In this paper, we propose a machine-aided diagnostic system to predict how badly a patient with COVID-19 will develop disease. The prognosis of this type is based on the parameters of commonly used complete blood count tests, which makes it possible to obtain data from a wide range of patients.We chose...
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COVID-19 severity forecast based on machine learning and complete blood count data
PublicationProper triage of COVID-19 patients is a key factor in eective case management, especially with limited and insucient resources. In this paper, we propose a machine-aided diagnostic system to predict how badly a patient with COVID-19 will develop disease. The prognosis of this type is based on the parameters of commonly used complete blood count tests, which makes it possible to obtain data from a wide range of patients.We chose...
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Chemical Composition of Atmospheric Air in Nemoral Scots Pine Forests and Submountainous Beech Forests: The Potential Region for the Introduction of Forest Therapy
PublicationStudies show that forests are one of the main recreational destinations. This can be explained by their beneficial effects on the health of their visitors, which can be attributed to compounds from the terpene group. The aim of this research was to determine the chemical composition of air in the interiors of Nemoral Scots pine forests and submountainous beech forests, with the determination of compounds of the terpene group. Samples...
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The influence of inflation pressure and ambient temperature on the value of the truck tires rolling resistance
PublicationThe articlediscusses the effect of inflation pressure and the ambient temperature on the value of the rolling resistance of truck tires which directly translates into fuel consumption. For this purpose, a series of measurements was made at two ambient temperatures (at 25°C and -15°C), using different pumping pressures.
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Eurozone or National Inflation Projections: Which has Greater Impact on Consumer Expectations?
PublicationWe compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire...
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Effect of Forecast Climate Changes on Water Needs of Giant Miscanthus Cultivated in the Kuyavia Region in Poland
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Suicidal deaths due to helium inhalation
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Isolation and properties of recombinant trehalose synthase
PublicationBiosynthesis of trehalose is carried out via various matabolic pathways, including the use of trehalose synthase. Bacteria of the genus Deionococcus are microorganisms which produce trehalose synthase catalizing conversion of maltose into trehalose. In this work recombinant trehalose synthase from D.radiodurans was characterized.
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...
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Impact of Investments and R&D Costs in Renewable Energy Technologies on Companies’ Profitability Indicators: Assessment and Forecast
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Short clinically-based prediction model to forecast transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk state
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Application of MARKAL model to optimisation of electricity generation structure in Poland in the long-term time horizon. Part II. Model and forecasts assumptions
PublicationIn this paper, the next in a series of publications on the subject, assumptions are presented of a power system development model in terms of electricity generation technology infrastructure in Poland, in the long term perspective until 2060. The model is based on the mathematical structure of the MARKAL optimization package. Among other things developed are a forecast of the final demand for electricity and heat, the current...
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Zika virus infection – a new epidemic threat
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Isolation and Self-Association Studies of Beta-Lactoglobulin
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Isolation and characterization of the restriction endonucleasePpel fromPhormidium persicinum
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The influence of switching impulses on degradation of polyethylene insulation
PublicationW pracy omówiono czas inkubacji i wzrostu drzewka elektrycznego rozwijającego się w izolacji polietylenowej usieciowanej w układzie ostrze - płyta uziemiona. Badania przeprowadzono przy udarach łączeniowych nałożonych na napiecie przemienne (napięcie skojarzone). Wyniki badań wskazują na istotny wpływ ładunku przestrzennego wprowadzanego napięciem udarowym na inkubację i propagację drzewienia elektrycznego.
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Isolation and restoration policies against power collapse.
PublicationPrzedstawiono zasady obrony systemów elektroenergetycznych przed tzw. blackout´em. Omówiono wielkości kryterialnych tych systemów, możliwości predykcji stanów zagrożeniowych oraz automatyki działające on line w celu zapobieżenia rozprzestrzeniania się zakłóceń i awarii w systemach elektroenergetycznych.
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Denudation - a convenient method of isolation and enrichment of analytes
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono: podstawy teoretyczne techniki denudacyjnej; rozwiązania konstrukcyjne podstawowych typów urządzeń denudacyjnych; obszar praktycznego wykorzystania technik denudacyjnych.
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Isolation and Characterization of Phenol-Degrading Psychrotolerant Yeasts
PublicationIn this study, the potential of selected psychrotolerant yeast strains for phenol biodegradation was studied. From 39 strains isolated from soil and water samples from Rucianka peat bog, three psychrotolerant yeast strains: A011, B021 and L012 showed the ability to phenol degradation. The result shows that all three yeast strains could degrade phenol at 500 mg l-1 and 750 mg l-1 concentration, whereas strains A011 and L012 could...
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Isolation Number versus Domination Number of Trees
PublicationIf G=(VG,EG) is a graph of order n, we call S⊆VG an isolating set if the graph induced by VG−NG[S] contains no edges. The minimum cardinality of an isolating set of G is called the isolation number of G, and it is denoted by ι(G). It is known that ι(G)≤n3 and the bound is sharp. A subset S⊆VG is called dominating in G if NG[S]=VG. The minimum cardinality of a dominating set of G is the domination number, and it is denoted by γ(G)....
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Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case
PublicationThe study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank's base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Impact of forecasted changes in Polish economy (2015 and 2020) on nutrient emission into the river basins
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Forecasted climate changes and their influence on cities and regions in 2050 in terms of extreme hydrological events
PublicationGlobal climate change is a problem which arises numerous theories and uncertainties, especially in terms of speculated human impact. Independent from the fact, what is the main driver for the changes, some of the climate shifts are visible already nowadays. Both contemporary and future cities will have to face such problems. Although climate change may cause numerous effects on different fields, a special stress in this article...
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THE EFFECT OF LOG SORTING STRATEGY ON THE FORECASTED LUMBER VALUE AFTER SAWING PINE WOOD
PublicationThe optimal transformation path for the resource is determined by the quality of a log combined with its dimension. The commercial value of derived products is also closely connected with the size and extent of containing wood deficiencies. The results of studies with three diverse strategies for log sorting are presented in the paper. Resource assessment by a worker without extensive experience in sorting logs, the certified grading...
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Rare zoonotic infection withMicrosporum persicolorwith literature review
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Prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in patients with cystic fibrosis
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Arbutin: Isolation, X-ray structure and computional studies
PublicationArbutin, an active component originated from Serratula quinquefolia for skin-whitening use and treating skin related allergic inflammation, was characterized by microanalysis, FTIR, UV-Vis, multinuclear NMR spectroscopy, and single crystal X-ray diffraction method. The geometries of the studied compound were optimized in singlet states using the density functional theory (DFT) method with B3LYP functional. Electronic spectra were...
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EU-Russian Relations and the Eastern Enlargement: Integration or Isolation
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Measurement methods for assessing insulation condition of underground pipelines
PublicationThe paper discusses the most frequently applied measurement methods for assessing the quality of external insulation along pipelines and detecting defect locations in the protective coating. The quality of coating along a given pipeline section under investigation is assessed by determining unitary resistance of the coating, which is calculated on the basis of measurement results obtained along a pipeline subjected to cathodic...
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Graphs with isolation number equal to one third of the order
PublicationA set D of vertices of a graph G is isolating if the set of vertices not in D and with no neighbor in D is independent. The isolation number of G, denoted by \iota(G) , is the minimum cardinality of an isolating set of G. It is known that \iota(G) \leq n/3 , if G is a connected graph of order n, , distinct from C_5 . The main result of this work is the characterisation of unicyclic and block graphs of order n with isolating number...