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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: EUROPE, DERECHO, SQUALL LINES, THUNDERSTORMS, WIND GUSTS, NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION/FORECASTING
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Multi-objective weather routing of sailing vessels
PublikacjaThe paper presents a multi-objective deterministic method of weather routing for sailing vessels. Depending on a particular purpose of sailboat weather routing, the presented method makes it possible to customize the criteria and constraints so as to fit a particular user’s needs. Apart from a typical shortest time criterion, safety and comfort can also be taken into account. Additionally, the method supports dynamic weather data:...
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Impact of adverse winter weather on traffic flow
PublikacjaThe paper aims to analyse the impact of adverse weather in winter on traffic flow using data from a dual carriageway section of an express road located in Gdansk. For the purposes of the analysis, traffic and meteorological data were collected for a period of 15 months in 2014-2015 and aggregated to 5 minutes intervals. The impact of winter weather conditions on traffic flow was assessed by comparing aggregated traffic stream parameters...
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Hybrid Inception-embedded deep neural network ResNet for short and medium-term PV-Wind forecasting
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Hybrid forecasting models for wind-PV systems in diverse geographical locations: Performance and power potential analysis
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Numerical method of lines for first order partial differential functional equations
PublikacjaUdowodniono zbieżność numerycznej metody prostych dla równań różniczkowofunkcyjnych o pochodnych cząstkowych pierwszego rzędu i ich rozwiązań klasycznych określonych na piramidzie Haara. Zastosowano metodę nierówności różniczkowych.
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A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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Prediction of the fatigue lifetime of PUR structural elements using a combined experimental-numerical approach
PublikacjaThis paper presents a method for estimating the fatigue life of polyurethane elastomeric components. A rubber replacement - polyurethane of hardness 80ShA commonly used in vibration damping systems, for example, in motor vehicle suspensions, was used for the study. A metal-rubber bushing component was selected for analysis, and numerical analysis was carried out along with a fatigue model proposal based on a modification of the...
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Wind Speed Probabilistic Forecast Based Wind Turbine Selection and Siting for Urban Environment
PublikacjaWind energy being a free source of energy is becoming popular over the past decades and is being studied extensively. Integration of wind turbines is now being expanded to urban and offshore settings in contrast to the conventional wind farms in relatively open areas. The direct installation of wind turbines poses a potential risk, as it may result in financial losses in scenarios characterized by inadequate wind resource availability....
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Collision Risk-Informed Weather Routing for Sailboats
PublikacjaSelected COLREG rules, good seamanship and sheer common sense indicate that it is in a sailboat's interest to follow collision-free routes without relying on large power-driven ships to give way. Until now, however, no method has integrated a sailboat's weather routing with collision risk monitoring and collision avoidance. Therefore, a new deterministic approach to combine the above features within one method is introduced here....
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Electricity demand prediction by multi-agent system with history-based weighting
PublikacjaEnergy and load demand forecasting in short-horizons, over an interval ranging from one hour to one week, is crucial for on-line scheduling and security functions of power system. Many load forecasting methods have been developed in recent years which are usually complex solutions with many adjustable parameters. Best-matching models and their relevant parameters have to be determined in a search procedure. We propose a hybrid...
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Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm in Practice
PublikacjaThe Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA) has already been introduced by the author on earlier TransNav 2009 and 2011 conferences with a focus on theoretical application to a hybrid-propulsion or motor-driven ship. This paper addresses the topic of possible practical weather routing applications of MEWRA. In the paper some practical advantages of utilizing Pareto front as a result of multicriteria optimization...
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Structural reliability of overhead power lines by means of Monte Carlo Method and RSM
PublikacjaThe article discusses the issue of reliability assessment of overhead power lines by means of both Monte Carlo Method and Response Surface Method. The suspension tower OS24 ON150+10 is considered, as the weakest element of the line. A comparison is made between deterministic and probabilistic approaches to wind and icing loading. The PDFs for wind and icing loads are proposed. Reliability is assessed for both critical atmospheric...
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Numerical prediction of steady and unsteady tip vortex cavitation on hydrofoils
PublikacjaArtykuł przedstawia metodę numeryczną do wyznaczania kawitujących wirów wierzchołkowych powstających za płatami nośnymi. Metoda ta jest oparta na rozwiązywanie dwufazowego turbulentnego przepływu cieczy lepkiej. Pozwala ona wyznaczyć geometrię kawitującego wiru dla różnych geometrii płata nośnego i dla różnych parametrów przepływu. Pokazano porównanie wyników obliczeń z pomiarami i rejestracjami wykonanymi na modelu płata w tunelu...
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Forecasting risks and challenges of digital innovations
PublikacjaForecasting and assessment of societal risks related to digital innovation systems and services is an urgent problem, because these solutions usually contain artificial intelligence algorithms which learn using data from the environment and modify their behaviour much beyond human control. Digital innovation solutions are increasingly deployed in transport, business and administrative domains, and therefore, if abused by a malicious...
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Numerical method of lines for first order partial differential equations with deviated variables
PublikacjaPraca traktuje o przybliżaniu rozwiązań klasycznych równańróżniczkowo-funkcyjnych cząstkowych pierwszego rzędu rozwiązaniamiukładów quasiliniowych równań różnicowych. Nowe podejście dorozwiązywania równań nieliniowych zawdzięczamy metodziequasilinearyzacji dla zagadnień początkowo - brzegowych z odchylonymargumentem. Dla przyrostów pochodnych funkcji danej zakładamy nieliniowe oszacowanie typu Perrona. Załączone są wyniki eksperymentów...
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublikacjaThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Forecasting and Simulations_2024_2025
Kursy Online -
Eulerian motion magnification applied to structural health monitoring of wind turbines
PublikacjaSeveral types of defects may occur in wind turbines, as physical damage of blades or gearbox malfunction. A wind farm monitoring and damage prediction system is built to observe abnormal vibrations of elements of wind turbine: blades, nacelle, and tower. Contactless methods are developed which do not require turbine stopping. In this work, structural health monitoring of a wind turbine is evaluated using a conversion from the captured...
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Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan
PublikacjaThis paper examines the usefulness of statistical methods in forecasting the financial energy of households. The study’s objective is to create the innovative ratios that combine both financial and demographic information of households and implement them in the forecasting models. To conduct this objective, six forecasting models are developed using three different methods—discriminant analysis, logit analysis, and decision trees...
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Modelling of MV and HV Cable Lines
PublikacjaOverhead and cable lines are fundamental elements of power systems. Participation of cable lines is smaller and their percentage decreases as voltage is increased. HV cable lines are often built with the use of cables which are composed of coaxial metallic sheaths. Such cables are also often used in MV networks. The sheath may operate in different confgurations. In the case of Polish MV network the sheaths are earthed at both ends....
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Evaluation and application of data from road weather stations for winter maintenance management
PublikacjaThe paper presents the analysis of road weather data from meteorological stations located at the Polish national roads of Pomerania District during the impact of winter conditions. Presented issue is particularly important from the point of view the problem of winter maintenance and especially for prediction and assurance of quality of asphalt pavement surface ie. resistance to low temperature cracking or risk of glazed frost....
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SOME PROBLEMS OF SUPPORTING OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES
PublikacjaBasic problems of foundations of sea wind turbines are considered in this paper. This aims to search for solutions to optimize supporting of the offshore turbines with a size greater than 10 MW. The types of foundations, their basic features, including most important dimensions, applications as well as general design considerations are discussed. Numerical model of the offshore turbine and some preliminary computations for a case...
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The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios
PublikacjaThis paper is devoted to the issue of forecasting financial ratios. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology, i.e., fuzzy logic theory, and to evaluate its effectiveness. Fuzzy logic has been widely used in machinery, robotics and industrial engineering. This paper introduces the use of fuzzy logic for the financial analysis of enterprises. While many current...
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Knowledge Transfer Platform FindFISH – Numerical Forecasting System for the Marine Environment of the Gulf of Gdańsk for Fisheries
PublikacjaFast access to expert knowledge is very valuable, especially in the context of decision-making. Fishermen can use this knowledge to diagnose hydrological and hydrochemical conditions in which fish stocks should be the most abundant. In response to this need, a digital service has been developed. It is a service created within the FindFISH project, which pro- vides the results of all developed models: hydrodynamic, biochemical,...
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Damage detection in turbine wind blades by vibration based methods
PublikacjaThe paper describes results of numerical simulation for damage localization in the composite coat of a wind turbine blade usingmodal parameters and a modern damage detection method (wavelet transform).
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Stability of an imperfect truss loaded by wind
PublikacjaThe present paper is devoted to the numerical research of stability of a truss loaded by wind and stiffened by elastic supports located at the top chord. The lateral braces or lateral and torsional braces were taken into account. In this paper, the linear buckling analysis re- sults for the beam and shell model were presented. Two different shapes of initial geometric imperfections were considered in the non-linear static analysis...
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Recovering Sound Produced by Wind Turbine Structures Employing Video Motion Magnification
PublikacjaThe recordings were made with a fast video camera and with a microphone. Using fast cameras allowed for observation of the micro vibrations of the object structure. Motion-magnified video recordings of wind turbines on a wind farm were made for the purpose of building a damage prediction system. An idea was to use video to recover sound & vibrations in order to obtain a contactless diagnostic method for wind turbines. The recovered signals...
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Drivetrain of a Wind Turbine
PublikacjaIn a most commonly met design of a wind turbine the power is transmitted from the rotor to the generator through the system composed of the main shaft, friction connection, multiplying gearbox and a flexible coupling. The driving system comprises almost a complete set of the machine elements being described during machine design lectures and can serve as an interesting illustration...
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A method for the accurate numerical prediction of the tip vortices shed from hydrofoils
PublikacjaPraca przedstawia wyniki obliczeń numerycznych rozkładu wirowości i pól prędkości w przekrojach wirów wierzchołkowych generowanych przez płaty nośne. Obliczenia przeprowadzono przy pomocy nowej, wyspecjalizowanej metody dyskretyzacji obszaru przepływu. Rezultaty obliczeń porównano z wynikami pomiarów anemometrem laserowym za modelami płatów w tunelu kawitacyjnym. Porównanie to potwierdziło skuteczność nowej metody dyskretyzacji...
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Assessing the Effects of the Road Surface and Weather Conditions on Road Safety
PublikacjaWhen transport is analysed for its safe delivery the focus is mainly on assessing the safety of roads and the risk of undesired events. These include road accidents, an occurrence which is relatively rare and random. Randomness means that accidents depend on several factors which are partly deterministic (can be controlled) and partly stochastic (random and unpredictable). The set of crash contributing factors can be classified...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublikacjaThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting
PublikacjaThis paper examines ownership equity as a predictor of future business failure within the tourism and hospitality sectors. The main goals of this study were to examine which ratios are the most important for a tourism business failure forecasting model and how significant is the “total percentage of equity ownership by company directors” ratio compared with other ratios associated with the probability of bankruptcy. A stepwise...
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Jan Kozicki dr hab. inż. arch.
OsobyW roku 2002 po uzyskaniu dyplomu magistra inżyniera w zakresie konstrukcji budowlanych podjął pracę na Wydziale Inżynierii Lądowej i Środowiska PG. W 2004 roku uzyskał dyplom magistra architekta na Wydziale Architektury za projekt stacji badawczej na Marsie. Doktorat obronił w 2007 roku w zakresie modelowania numerycznego w dynamice klasycznej. W 2013 roku uzyskał licencjat z zakresu fizyki teoretycznej na Uniwersytecie Gdańskim....
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Artificial Neural Networks in Forecasting the Consumer Bankruptcy Risk with Innovative Ratios
PublikacjaThis study aims to develop nine different consumer bankruptcy forecasting models with the help of three types of artificial neural networks and to verify the usefulness of new, innovative ratios for implementation in personal finance. A learning sample comprising 200 consumers, and a testing sample of 500 non-bankrupt and 500 bankrupt consumers from Poland are used. The author employed three research approaches to using the entry...
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Optimization of Division and Reconfiguration Locations of the Medium-Voltage Power Grid Based on Forecasting the Level of Load and Generation from Renewable Energy Sources
PublikacjaThe article addresses challenges in optimizing the operation of medium voltage networks, emphasizing optimizing network division points and selecting the best network configuration for minimizing power and energy losses. It critically reviews recent research on the issue of network configuration optimization. The optimization of the medium voltage power grid reconfiguration process was carried out using known optimization tools....
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Optimizing FSO networks resilient to adverse weather conditions by means of enhanced uncertainty sets
PublikacjaThis work deals with dimensioning of wireless mesh networks (WMN) composed of FSO (free space optics) links. Although FSO links realize broadband transmission at low cost, their drawback is sensitivity to adverse weather conditions causing transmission degradation on multiple links. Hence, designing such FSO networks requires an optimization model to find the cheapest configuration of link capacities that will be able to carry...
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Scrutiny of power grids by penetrating PV energy in wind farms: a case study of the wind corridor of Jhampir, Pakistan
PublikacjaThis study examines the problems caused by intermittent renewable energy sources, especially wind farms, and suggests a different solar energy penetration strategy to improve their loading capacity. The study uses real-time data from a wind farm in Jhampir, Pakistan, to analyse and assess various aspects of grid stations connected to wind farms. Electrical Transient Analyzer Program is used to validate the results by linking...
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Scrutiny of power grids by penetrating PV energy in wind farms: a case study of the wind corridor of Jhampir, Pakistan
PublikacjaThis study examines the problems caused by intermittent renewable energy sources, especially wind farms, and suggests a different solar energy penetration strategy to improve their loading capacity. The study uses real-time data from a wind farm in Jhampir, Pakistan, to analyse and assess various aspects of grid stations connected to wind farms. Electrical Transient Analyzer Program is used to validate the results by linking these...
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WIND AND STRUCTURES
Czasopisma -
WIND ENERGY
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Wind Engineering
Czasopisma -
Simulation of Signal Propagation Along Fractional-Order Transmission Lines
PublikacjaIn this paper, the simulation method of signal propagation along fractional-order (FO) transmission lines is presented. Initially, fractional calculus and the model of FO transmission line are introduced. Then, the algorithm allowing for simulation of the nonmonochromatic wave propagation along FO transmission lines is presented. It employs computations in the frequency domain, i.e., an analytical excitation is transformed to the...
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Design of power cable lines partially exposed to direct solar radiation – special aspects
PublikacjaPower cable lines are usually buried in the ground. However, in some cases, their ending sections are mounted along the supports of overhead lines. This leads to a situation where the cables are exposed to direct solar radiation and, consequentially, overheat. The paper presents the advanced computer modelling of power cables’ heating, considering their insolation as well as the effect of wind. The temperature and current-carrying...
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FORECASTING - QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Kursy Online -
A COMPARISON OF THE WIND SPECTRUM ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT METHODS - AN ORIGINAL PROJECT OF A BUILDING ON A CLIFF IN GDYNIA
PublikacjaThe article presents numerical simulations of the dynamic wind loads on the structure of a building designed on a cliff in Gdynia. The results obtained from the two methods: Davenport’s and Karman’s are compared. The results allowed a comparison of the two methods, and they provided an answer to the question how a construction, designed in such an unusual condition of a cliff behaves under the influence of the gusting wind. The...
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A new index for statistical analyses and prediction of travelling ionospheric disturbances
PublikacjaTravelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) are signatures of atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) observed in changes in the electron density. The analysis of TIDs is relevant for studying coupling processes in the thermosphere–ionosphere system. A new TID index is introduced, which is based on an easy extension of the commonly used approach for TID detection. This TID activity index, which can be applied for individual Global Navigation...
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Effective Air Quality Prediction Using Reinforced Swarm Optimization and Bi-Directional Gated Recurrent Unit
PublikacjaIn the present scenario, air quality prediction (AQP) is a complex task due to high variability, volatility, and dynamic nature in space and time of particulates and pollutants. Recently, several nations have had poor air quality due to the high emission of particulate matter (PM2.5) that affects human health conditions, especially in urban areas. In this research, a new optimization-based regression model was implemented for effective...
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JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
Czasopisma -
An Innovative Floating System with a Savonius Rotor as a Horizontal-Axis Wind Turbine
PublikacjaIn this project, an innovative wind turbine was designed for a floating plant. A large Savonius rotor was replaced with a double-rotor wind turbine implemented as a horizontal-axis turbine. This double rotor was positioned on the tip of a thrust plate and fixed to the deck of a catamaran. Simple 2D numerical simulations were performed to confirm the effectiveness of the concept. An analysis of the floating system configuration...
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Design of horizontal axis wind and water turbines
PublikacjaThe basic hydrodynamic principles of horizontal axis turbines are presented. Computational methods based on vortex theory for design of such turbines and for calculation of their hydro or aerodynamic characteristics are described in detail. These methods are applicable both to wind and water turbines. The influence of detailed turbine geometry on its characteristics is presented. Several practical computational examples of different...