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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: EUROPE, DERECHO, SQUALL LINES, THUNDERSTORMS, WIND GUSTS, NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION/FORECASTING
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Hybrid forecasting models for wind-PV systems in diverse geographical locations: Performance and power potential analysis
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A fuzzy logic model for forecasting exchange rates
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting exchange rates. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology - fuzzy logic theory - and to evaluate its effectiveness in times of prosperity and during the financial crisis. The model is based on sets of rules written by the author in the form of IF-THEN, where expert knowledge is stored. This model is the result...
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Numerical method of lines for first order partial differential functional equations
PublikacjaUdowodniono zbieżność numerycznej metody prostych dla równań różniczkowofunkcyjnych o pochodnych cząstkowych pierwszego rzędu i ich rozwiązań klasycznych określonych na piramidzie Haara. Zastosowano metodę nierówności różniczkowych.
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Prediction of the fatigue lifetime of PUR structural elements using a combined experimental-numerical approach
PublikacjaThis paper presents a method for estimating the fatigue life of polyurethane elastomeric components. A rubber replacement - polyurethane of hardness 80ShA commonly used in vibration damping systems, for example, in motor vehicle suspensions, was used for the study. A metal-rubber bushing component was selected for analysis, and numerical analysis was carried out along with a fatigue model proposal based on a modification of the...
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Collision Risk-Informed Weather Routing for Sailboats
PublikacjaSelected COLREG rules, good seamanship and sheer common sense indicate that it is in a sailboat's interest to follow collision-free routes without relying on large power-driven ships to give way. Until now, however, no method has integrated a sailboat's weather routing with collision risk monitoring and collision avoidance. Therefore, a new deterministic approach to combine the above features within one method is introduced here....
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Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm in Practice
PublikacjaThe Multicriteria Evolutionary Weather Routing Algorithm (MEWRA) has already been introduced by the author on earlier TransNav 2009 and 2011 conferences with a focus on theoretical application to a hybrid-propulsion or motor-driven ship. This paper addresses the topic of possible practical weather routing applications of MEWRA. In the paper some practical advantages of utilizing Pareto front as a result of multicriteria optimization...
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Electricity demand prediction by multi-agent system with history-based weighting
PublikacjaEnergy and load demand forecasting in short-horizons, over an interval ranging from one hour to one week, is crucial for on-line scheduling and security functions of power system. Many load forecasting methods have been developed in recent years which are usually complex solutions with many adjustable parameters. Best-matching models and their relevant parameters have to be determined in a search procedure. We propose a hybrid...
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Forecasting risks and challenges of digital innovations
PublikacjaForecasting and assessment of societal risks related to digital innovation systems and services is an urgent problem, because these solutions usually contain artificial intelligence algorithms which learn using data from the environment and modify their behaviour much beyond human control. Digital innovation solutions are increasingly deployed in transport, business and administrative domains, and therefore, if abused by a malicious...
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Numerical prediction of steady and unsteady tip vortex cavitation on hydrofoils
PublikacjaArtykuł przedstawia metodę numeryczną do wyznaczania kawitujących wirów wierzchołkowych powstających za płatami nośnymi. Metoda ta jest oparta na rozwiązywanie dwufazowego turbulentnego przepływu cieczy lepkiej. Pozwala ona wyznaczyć geometrię kawitującego wiru dla różnych geometrii płata nośnego i dla różnych parametrów przepływu. Pokazano porównanie wyników obliczeń z pomiarami i rejestracjami wykonanymi na modelu płata w tunelu...
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Structural reliability of overhead power lines by means of Monte Carlo Method and RSM
PublikacjaThe article discusses the issue of reliability assessment of overhead power lines by means of both Monte Carlo Method and Response Surface Method. The suspension tower OS24 ON150+10 is considered, as the weakest element of the line. A comparison is made between deterministic and probabilistic approaches to wind and icing loading. The PDFs for wind and icing loads are proposed. Reliability is assessed for both critical atmospheric...
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Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan
PublikacjaThis paper examines the usefulness of statistical methods in forecasting the financial energy of households. The study’s objective is to create the innovative ratios that combine both financial and demographic information of households and implement them in the forecasting models. To conduct this objective, six forecasting models are developed using three different methods—discriminant analysis, logit analysis, and decision trees...
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublikacjaThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Evaluation and application of data from road weather stations for winter maintenance management
PublikacjaThe paper presents the analysis of road weather data from meteorological stations located at the Polish national roads of Pomerania District during the impact of winter conditions. Presented issue is particularly important from the point of view the problem of winter maintenance and especially for prediction and assurance of quality of asphalt pavement surface ie. resistance to low temperature cracking or risk of glazed frost....
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Eulerian motion magnification applied to structural health monitoring of wind turbines
PublikacjaSeveral types of defects may occur in wind turbines, as physical damage of blades or gearbox malfunction. A wind farm monitoring and damage prediction system is built to observe abnormal vibrations of elements of wind turbine: blades, nacelle, and tower. Contactless methods are developed which do not require turbine stopping. In this work, structural health monitoring of a wind turbine is evaluated using a conversion from the captured...
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Numerical method of lines for first order partial differential equations with deviated variables
PublikacjaPraca traktuje o przybliżaniu rozwiązań klasycznych równańróżniczkowo-funkcyjnych cząstkowych pierwszego rzędu rozwiązaniamiukładów quasiliniowych równań różnicowych. Nowe podejście dorozwiązywania równań nieliniowych zawdzięczamy metodziequasilinearyzacji dla zagadnień początkowo - brzegowych z odchylonymargumentem. Dla przyrostów pochodnych funkcji danej zakładamy nieliniowe oszacowanie typu Perrona. Załączone są wyniki eksperymentów...
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The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios
PublikacjaThis paper is devoted to the issue of forecasting financial ratios. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology, i.e., fuzzy logic theory, and to evaluate its effectiveness. Fuzzy logic has been widely used in machinery, robotics and industrial engineering. This paper introduces the use of fuzzy logic for the financial analysis of enterprises. While many current...
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Modelling of MV and HV Cable Lines
PublikacjaOverhead and cable lines are fundamental elements of power systems. Participation of cable lines is smaller and their percentage decreases as voltage is increased. HV cable lines are often built with the use of cables which are composed of coaxial metallic sheaths. Such cables are also often used in MV networks. The sheath may operate in different confgurations. In the case of Polish MV network the sheaths are earthed at both ends....
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SOME PROBLEMS OF SUPPORTING OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES
PublikacjaBasic problems of foundations of sea wind turbines are considered in this paper. This aims to search for solutions to optimize supporting of the offshore turbines with a size greater than 10 MW. The types of foundations, their basic features, including most important dimensions, applications as well as general design considerations are discussed. Numerical model of the offshore turbine and some preliminary computations for a case...
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Damage detection in turbine wind blades by vibration based methods
PublikacjaThe paper describes results of numerical simulation for damage localization in the composite coat of a wind turbine blade usingmodal parameters and a modern damage detection method (wavelet transform).
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Stability of an imperfect truss loaded by wind
PublikacjaThe present paper is devoted to the numerical research of stability of a truss loaded by wind and stiffened by elastic supports located at the top chord. The lateral braces or lateral and torsional braces were taken into account. In this paper, the linear buckling analysis re- sults for the beam and shell model were presented. Two different shapes of initial geometric imperfections were considered in the non-linear static analysis...
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Recovering Sound Produced by Wind Turbine Structures Employing Video Motion Magnification
PublikacjaThe recordings were made with a fast video camera and with a microphone. Using fast cameras allowed for observation of the micro vibrations of the object structure. Motion-magnified video recordings of wind turbines on a wind farm were made for the purpose of building a damage prediction system. An idea was to use video to recover sound & vibrations in order to obtain a contactless diagnostic method for wind turbines. The recovered signals...
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Assessing the Effects of the Road Surface and Weather Conditions on Road Safety
PublikacjaWhen transport is analysed for its safe delivery the focus is mainly on assessing the safety of roads and the risk of undesired events. These include road accidents, an occurrence which is relatively rare and random. Randomness means that accidents depend on several factors which are partly deterministic (can be controlled) and partly stochastic (random and unpredictable). The set of crash contributing factors can be classified...
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Drivetrain of a Wind Turbine
PublikacjaIn a most commonly met design of a wind turbine the power is transmitted from the rotor to the generator through the system composed of the main shaft, friction connection, multiplying gearbox and a flexible coupling. The driving system comprises almost a complete set of the machine elements being described during machine design lectures and can serve as an interesting illustration...
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Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting
PublikacjaThis paper examines ownership equity as a predictor of future business failure within the tourism and hospitality sectors. The main goals of this study were to examine which ratios are the most important for a tourism business failure forecasting model and how significant is the “total percentage of equity ownership by company directors” ratio compared with other ratios associated with the probability of bankruptcy. A stepwise...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublikacjaThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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FORECASTING - QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Kursy Online -
A method for the accurate numerical prediction of the tip vortices shed from hydrofoils
PublikacjaPraca przedstawia wyniki obliczeń numerycznych rozkładu wirowości i pól prędkości w przekrojach wirów wierzchołkowych generowanych przez płaty nośne. Obliczenia przeprowadzono przy pomocy nowej, wyspecjalizowanej metody dyskretyzacji obszaru przepływu. Rezultaty obliczeń porównano z wynikami pomiarów anemometrem laserowym za modelami płatów w tunelu kawitacyjnym. Porównanie to potwierdziło skuteczność nowej metody dyskretyzacji...
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Optimization of Division and Reconfiguration Locations of the Medium-Voltage Power Grid Based on Forecasting the Level of Load and Generation from Renewable Energy Sources
PublikacjaThe article addresses challenges in optimizing the operation of medium voltage networks, emphasizing optimizing network division points and selecting the best network configuration for minimizing power and energy losses. It critically reviews recent research on the issue of network configuration optimization. The optimization of the medium voltage power grid reconfiguration process was carried out using known optimization tools....
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Optimizing FSO networks resilient to adverse weather conditions by means of enhanced uncertainty sets
PublikacjaThis work deals with dimensioning of wireless mesh networks (WMN) composed of FSO (free space optics) links. Although FSO links realize broadband transmission at low cost, their drawback is sensitivity to adverse weather conditions causing transmission degradation on multiple links. Hence, designing such FSO networks requires an optimization model to find the cheapest configuration of link capacities that will be able to carry...
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Scrutiny of power grids by penetrating PV energy in wind farms: a case study of the wind corridor of Jhampir, Pakistan
PublikacjaThis study examines the problems caused by intermittent renewable energy sources, especially wind farms, and suggests a different solar energy penetration strategy to improve their loading capacity. The study uses real-time data from a wind farm in Jhampir, Pakistan, to analyse and assess various aspects of grid stations connected to wind farms. Electrical Transient Analyzer Program is used to validate the results by linking...
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Scrutiny of power grids by penetrating PV energy in wind farms: a case study of the wind corridor of Jhampir, Pakistan
PublikacjaThis study examines the problems caused by intermittent renewable energy sources, especially wind farms, and suggests a different solar energy penetration strategy to improve their loading capacity. The study uses real-time data from a wind farm in Jhampir, Pakistan, to analyse and assess various aspects of grid stations connected to wind farms. Electrical Transient Analyzer Program is used to validate the results by linking these...
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Jan Kozicki dr hab. inż. arch.
OsobyW roku 2002 po uzyskaniu dyplomu magistra inżyniera w zakresie konstrukcji budowlanych podjął pracę na Wydziale Inżynierii Lądowej i Środowiska PG. W 2004 roku uzyskał dyplom magistra architekta na Wydziale Architektury za projekt stacji badawczej na Marsie. Doktorat obronił w 2007 roku w zakresie modelowania numerycznego w dynamice klasycznej. W 2013 roku uzyskał licencjat z zakresu fizyki teoretycznej na Uniwersytecie Gdańskim....
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WIND AND STRUCTURES
Czasopisma -
WIND ENERGY
Czasopisma -
Wind Engineering
Czasopisma -
Simulation of Signal Propagation Along Fractional-Order Transmission Lines
PublikacjaIn this paper, the simulation method of signal propagation along fractional-order (FO) transmission lines is presented. Initially, fractional calculus and the model of FO transmission line are introduced. Then, the algorithm allowing for simulation of the nonmonochromatic wave propagation along FO transmission lines is presented. It employs computations in the frequency domain, i.e., an analytical excitation is transformed to the...
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Design of power cable lines partially exposed to direct solar radiation – special aspects
PublikacjaPower cable lines are usually buried in the ground. However, in some cases, their ending sections are mounted along the supports of overhead lines. This leads to a situation where the cables are exposed to direct solar radiation and, consequentially, overheat. The paper presents the advanced computer modelling of power cables’ heating, considering their insolation as well as the effect of wind. The temperature and current-carrying...
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A COMPARISON OF THE WIND SPECTRUM ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT METHODS - AN ORIGINAL PROJECT OF A BUILDING ON A CLIFF IN GDYNIA
PublikacjaThe article presents numerical simulations of the dynamic wind loads on the structure of a building designed on a cliff in Gdynia. The results obtained from the two methods: Davenport’s and Karman’s are compared. The results allowed a comparison of the two methods, and they provided an answer to the question how a construction, designed in such an unusual condition of a cliff behaves under the influence of the gusting wind. The...
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A new index for statistical analyses and prediction of travelling ionospheric disturbances
PublikacjaTravelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) are signatures of atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) observed in changes in the electron density. The analysis of TIDs is relevant for studying coupling processes in the thermosphere–ionosphere system. A new TID index is introduced, which is based on an easy extension of the commonly used approach for TID detection. This TID activity index, which can be applied for individual Global Navigation...
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An Innovative Floating System with a Savonius Rotor as a Horizontal-Axis Wind Turbine
PublikacjaIn this project, an innovative wind turbine was designed for a floating plant. A large Savonius rotor was replaced with a double-rotor wind turbine implemented as a horizontal-axis turbine. This double rotor was positioned on the tip of a thrust plate and fixed to the deck of a catamaran. Simple 2D numerical simulations were performed to confirm the effectiveness of the concept. An analysis of the floating system configuration...
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Effective Air Quality Prediction Using Reinforced Swarm Optimization and Bi-Directional Gated Recurrent Unit
PublikacjaIn the present scenario, air quality prediction (AQP) is a complex task due to high variability, volatility, and dynamic nature in space and time of particulates and pollutants. Recently, several nations have had poor air quality due to the high emission of particulate matter (PM2.5) that affects human health conditions, especially in urban areas. In this research, a new optimization-based regression model was implemented for effective...
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Design of horizontal axis wind and water turbines
PublikacjaThe basic hydrodynamic principles of horizontal axis turbines are presented. Computational methods based on vortex theory for design of such turbines and for calculation of their hydro or aerodynamic characteristics are described in detail. These methods are applicable both to wind and water turbines. The influence of detailed turbine geometry on its characteristics is presented. Several practical computational examples of different...
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JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
Czasopisma -
Investigation of the Aerodynamics of an Innovative Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine
PublikacjaThe paper presents the results of an experimental investigation and a three dimensional numerical analysis of the transient aerodynamic phenomena occurring in the innovative modification of classic Savonius wind turbine. An attempt to explain the increased efficiency of the innovative design a comparison with the traditional solution is undertaken. A vorticity measure based on the integral of the velocity gradient tensor second...
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Horizon Europe proposals - Administrative Part
Dane BadawczeThe dataset contains data collected during the HE National Contact Point training on Oct. 12, 2022, reg. the administrative part of Horizon Europe grant proposals. The data set includes presentations concerning administrative forms of 2022 proposals and their content, including participant data; information about abstract writing, keyword choice and...
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Stability of a truss under upward wind loading
PublikacjaThe present paper is devoted to the numerical investigations of stability of a truss under upward wind load. The truss is braced at its the upper cord. A structural variant including lateral braces, or lateral and torsional braces is considered. The research presents the problems of linear buckling and non-linear static analysis of the truss shell and beam model with geometric and material non-linearity are presented. The initial...
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Estimation of wind pressure acting on the new palm house in Gdansk
PublikacjaThis paper deals with the problem of numerical simulations of wind loads acting on a Palm House with complex geometry. Flow simulations with aid of computational fluid dynamics procedures have been performed to check if the pressure distributions for the structure are greater than those calculated using the standard design codes with assumption that the Palm House horizontal cross sections are described by smooth cylinders.
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Forecasting of retail prices of liquid fuels in Poland
PublikacjaMotivation: In recent years, the prices of liquid fuels in Poland have been rising , negatively affecting the country’s economy and the daily life of its inhabitants. Consequently, there is a need for effective forecasting of prices in fuel markets, as this could enable entrepreneurs and consumers to make more informed decisions. Aim: The objective of the article was to forecast the retail prices of EU95 petrol and diesel fuel...
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Verification of algorithms determining wave loads on support structure of wind turbine
PublikacjaThe offshore wind turbines require determination of wave loads on their support structure. This structure is fixed and, therefore, this problem is reduced to solving only the diffraction problem, which is determined by Laplace equation and conditions on the following boundaries: on the support structure, on the sea free surface and on its bottom, and at infinity on free surface. The linear problem was applied to determine the wave...
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EVOLUTIONARY MULTI–OBJECTIVE WEATHER ROUTING OF SAILBOATS
PublikacjaThe paper presents a multi-objective method, which optimises the route of a sailboat. The presented method makes use of an evolutionary multi-objective (EMO) algorithm, which performs the optimisation according to three objective functions: total passage time, a sum of all course alterations made during the voyage and the average angle of heel. The last two of the objective functions reflect the navigator’s and passenger’s comfort,...