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Search results for: RISK ANALYSIS, RISK MANAGEMENT
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Identification of Risk Factors for Collisions Involving Cyclists Based on Gdansk Example
PublicationThe role of pedestrian and bicycle traffic in Poland has growing trend. The comprehensive traffic study, conducted in Gdansk in 2016, has confirmed the increase in the number of cyclists and their share in the modal split. Therefore, it is particularly important to ensure the safety of this group of unprotected road users. Only in 2015 on the roads of Gdansk occurred 93 accidents (excluding collisions) involving cyclists. As a...
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A Simulation Model for Risk and Pricing Competition in the Retail Lending Market
PublicationWe propose a simulation model of the retail lending market with two types of agents: borrowers searching for low interest rates and lenders competing through risk-based pricing. We show that individual banks observe adverse selection, even if every lender applies the same pricing strategy and a credit scoring model of comparable discrimination power. Additionally, the model justifies the reverse-S shape of the response rate curve....
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Environmental risk assessment of Polish wastewater treatment plant activity
PublicationWastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) play an extremely important role in shaping modern society's environmental wellbeing and awareness, however only well operated and supervised systems can be considered as environmentally sustainable. For this reason, an attempt was undertaken to assess the environmental burden posed by WWTPs in major Polish cities by collecting water samples prior to and just after wastewater release points....
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Preeclampsia Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods Trained on Synthetic Data
PublicationThis paper describes a research study that investigates the use of machine learning algorithms on synthetic data to classify the risk of developing preeclampsia by pregnant women. Synthetic datasets were generated based on parameter distributions from three real patient studies. Four models were compared: XGBoost, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, and Explainable Boosting Machines (EBM). The study found that the XGBoost...
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Błażej Prusak dr hab.
PeopleBłażej Prusak is Head of the Department of Finance at the Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Research on Enterprise in Modern Economy - theory and practice (REME), as well as a member of editorial boards of such journals as Intellectual Economics; Space. Economics. Society; Academy of Management. He is the author or co-author of several scientific monographs including:...
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Economics of credit scoring management
PublicationCredit scoring models constitute an inevitable element of modern risk and profitability management in retail financial lending institutions. Quality,or separation power of a credit scoring model is usually assessed with the Gini coefficient. Generally, the higher Gini coefficient the better, as in this way a bank can increase number of good customers and/or reject more bad applicants. In...
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Current issues of functional safety and cybersecurity analysis of the industrial and critical infrastructures
PublicationThis article addresses some functional safety assessment procedures with cybersecurity aspects in critical industrial installations with regard to the functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The functional safety management includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on the risk assessment...
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The KLC Cultures Synergy for Organizational Agility. Trust, Risk-Taking Attitude, and Critical Thinking as Moderators
PublicationOrganizational agility is visible in organizational change adaptability, and it is based on the development of dynamic capabilities, strategic sensitivity of leaders, accuracy and timing of decision-making, learning aptitude, flexibility in thinking and acting, and smooth resource flow across organizations, including the knowledge resource. In such a context, this study aimed to expose how the knowledge, learning, and collaboration...
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Prognostic and diagnostic capabilities of OOBN in assessing investment risk of complex construction projects
PublicationModelling decision problems using Bayesian networks is extremely valuable especially in case of issues related to uncertainty; it is also very helpful in constructing and understanding visual representation of the elements and their relations. This approach facilitates subsequent application of Bayesian networks, however there can be situations where using simple Bayesian networks is impractical or even ineffective. The aim of...
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Functional safety and cyber security analysis for life cycle management of industrial control systems in hazardous plants and oil port critical infrastructure including insurance
PublicationThis report addresses selected methodological aspects of proactive reliability, functional safety and cyber security management in life cycle of industrial automation and control systems (IACS) in hazardous plants and oil port critical installations based on the analysis of relevant hazards / threats and evaluation of related risks. In addition the insurance company point of view has been also considered, because nowadays the insurer,...
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Application of BN in Risk Diagnostics Arising from the Degree of Urban Regeneration Area Degradation
PublicationUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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A Model of Risk for Assessment of Safety of Ships in Damaged Conditions
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Is geopolitical risk priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns?
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Pet Ownership and the Risk of Arterial Hypertension and Cardiovascular Disease
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Downside Risk Approach for Multi-Objective Portfolio Optimization
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Sleep apnea: epidemiology, pathophysiology, and relation to cardiovascular risk
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A Bi-Objective Portfolio Optimization with Conditional Value-at-Risk
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Plasma Lipid Composition and Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease
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Food safety of potato processed in the aspect of acrylamide risk
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A risk assessment of dietary exposure to ochratoxin A for the Polish population
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Uncertainty assessment in the safety and security oriented risk analyses
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono uwzględnienie oceny niepewności w procesie związanym z analizą ryzyka i analizą bezpieczeństwa oraz ochroną informacji. Przedstawiona została koncepcja oceny bezpieczeństwa i zarządzania ryzykiem z uwzględnieniem analizy warstw zabezpieczeń LOPA. W artykule nakreślono wyzwania związane z integracją podejścia oceny bezpieczeństwa (safety) i ochrony informacji (security) w projektowaniu systemów zabezpieczeń...
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Risk assessment of biocides in roof paint. Part 1
PublicationSzereg pokryć dachowych, jak farby dachowe, zawiera w swoim składzie biocydy. Dotychczas nie wiadomo do jakiego stopnia biocydy wymywane są z farb dachowych, a ponadto jakie ich stężenie może występować w systemach zbierających wodę deszczową. Zbadano podatność na wymywanie biocydów z różnych niemieckich farb dachowych oraz oszacowano ich stężenie w zebranej wodzie deszczowej
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Risk-driven Software Process Improvement - a Case Study.
PublicationArtykuł przedstawia studium przypadku praktycznego zastosowania metody sterowanej ryzykiem poprawy procesów programowych w rzeczywistym projekcie informatycznym. Metoda zakłada jawne modelowanie procesu i jego braków (czynników ryzyka), a także wspiera ewolucję procesów. Ponadto zawiera dedykowane techniki identyfikacji ryzyka procesów oraz wywodzenia z niego sugestii poprawy procesów. Techniki te są wbudowane w cykliczną procedurę...
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On a systematic perspective on risk for formal safety assessment (FSA)
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Predicting Risk of Collision for Oil Tankers in the Gulf of Finland
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Effect of increased protein intake on the risk of female infertility
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Supporting Navigator's Decisions By Visualizing Ship Collision Risk
PublicationW artykule wprowadzono metodę wizualizacji, która umożliwia nawigatorowi oszacowanie ryzyka kolizji i (w razie konieczności) wybór manewru antykolizyjnego. Metoda jest oparta na wcześniejszej metodzie CTPA, uwzględnia dowolną zadaną domenę statku i jest wystarczająco szybka do zastosowania w okrętowych systemach wspierania decyzji nawigatora.
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Assessing the Risk in Urban Public Transport for Epidemiologic Factors
PublicationPandemics have presented new challenges for public transport organisers and operators. New diseases (e.g., influenza H1N1, severe acute respiratory syndrome—SARS, as well as, more recently, SARS-CoV-2) increase the need for new protection measures to prevent epidemic outbreaks in public transport infrastructure. The authors’ goal is to present a set of actions in the area of public transport that are adjusted to different levels...
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Exploring the relationship between investment choices, cognitive abilities risk attitudes and financial literacy
PublicationPurpose The main purpose of this study is to investigate the investment choices' relationship with cognitive abilities, risk aversion, risky investment intentions, subjective financial literacy and objective financial literacy. Design/methodology/approach To examine the relationship, two investment choices were given to 256 subjects from Pakistan. Questionnaire had total 20 questions for measuring five variables. To review this...
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High meniscal slope angle as a risk factor for meniscal allograft extrusion
PublicationA meniscal graft extrusion is still an unresolved problem that affects most patients after a meniscal transplantation. Despite the advances in surgical techniques, together with the improved methods for a meniscal allograft sizing, success is only observed in up to 75% of patients after they experience a meniscal allograft transplantation. Because a meniscal extrusion is associated with a cartilage deterioration and the progression...
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Flood risk assessment for office and services building Alchemia II at Al. Grunwaldzka 409 in Gdansk.
PublicationThe aim of the study is to assess the risk of flood from natural meteorological and hy-drological phenomena, for office and services building Alchemia II in Gdansk at Al. Grun-waldzka 409. The project includes the analysis of potential sources of floods in Gdansk re-garding the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Gdansk, the Vistula River basin and excessive rainfall and snowmelt waters being a significant element of hydrological processes...
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Risk of power cables insulation failure due to the thermal effect of solar radiation
PublicationLow-voltage, as well as high-voltage power cable lines, are usually buried in the ground. The ampacity of the power cables in the ground mainly depends on the thermal resistivity of the soil, which may vary in a wide range. A common practice in power cable systems performance is to supply them from a pole of an overhead line. If so, a section of the line is located in free air and can be directly exposed to solar radiation. In...
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How to evaluate methods used in chemical laboratories in terms of the total chemical risk? – a ChlorTox Scale
PublicationReliable assessment of the health and environmental risk associated with the use of chemicals is critical to ob- jectively evaluate the greenness and whiteness of an analytical method. An objective and useful way of risk assessment should take into account all the relevant properties of used substances, their actual amounts needed for application of the method, and quantify the assessment result using a standardized unit. This...
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Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk
PublicationThe objective of this study is to develop a multi-factor decision system predicting insolvency risk for natural persons with the use of fuzzy sets. Considering that the financial situation of households is affected by various endogenous and exogenous factors, the main assumption of this study is that the system for predicting financial difficulties should not be limited to the use of only a few financial variables concerning consumers,...
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Quantitative Risk Assessment in Construction Disputes Based on Machine Learning Tools
PublicationA high monetary value of the construction projects is one of the reasons of frequent disputes between a general contractor (GC) and a client. A construction site is a unique, one-time, and single-product factory with many parties involved and dependent on each other. The organizational dependencies and their complexity make any fault or mistake propagate and influence the final result (delays, cost overruns). The constant will...
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Merton-type default risk and financial performance: the dynamic panel moderation of firm size
PublicationPurpose – The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation of firm size. Design/methodology/approach – This study utilizes a total of 1,500 firm-year observations from 2013 to 2018 using dynamic panel data approach of generalized method of moments to test the relationship between default risk and financial...
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The effects of selected factors on regional road fatalities – analysis of the Łódź region
PublicationAnalysis of regional accident records shows that a country’s national road safety programme does not have the same effect in each of its regions. What may be a serious problem in one region may be of marginal significance in another. Polish and international experience shows that main risk groups and types of accidents related to the level of development and quality of the road network differ from region to region. The conclusion...
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Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk
PublicationThe process of decision-making in public procurement of construction projects during the preparation and implementation phases ought to be supported by risk identification, assessment, and management. In risk assessment one has to take into account factors that lead to risk events (background info), as well as the information about the risk symptoms (monitoring info). Typically once the risks have been assessed a decision-maker...
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Hard Lessons Learned: A Model that Facilitates the Selection of Methods of IT Project Management
PublicationThe article presents the results of research conducted in an international enterprise responsible for IT project implementation. The carried out analysis of the case study with the use of surveys and data synthesis allowed the major factors causing problems connected with project management to be identified. The identified factors were aggregated and then, by using four key variables, a rhomboidal model adaptation was proposed...
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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Ischemic stroke in general practice - risk factors, prognosis - prospective single center study
PublicationBackground. Ischemic stroke is one of the leading causes of death and disability in Poland, in the European Union and in the United States. Awareness related to the risk factors, particularly the modifiable ones, is of crucial importance in general practice and may improve early and long-term prognoses. Objectives. The aim of this study was to assess the risk factors and half-year survival rate in patients with ischemic stroke...
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Risk Assessment Due To Customs Delays In Supply Chains By Fuzzy Logic
PublicationDue to violations of existing trade relations, cargo flows between the European Union and Ukraine have been redistributed. As a result, new supply chains have been created that have increased the tension on ground transport, including road and rail. Unfortunately, this has caused significant delays when crossing the border, which has led to a greater increase in the total delivery time of goods. Therefore, to plan for effective...
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A framework for onboard assessment and monitoring of flooding risk due to open watertight doors for passenger ships
PublicationPost-accident safety of ships is governed by damage stability, affected by watertight subdivisions which limit accidental flooding. This is important for passenger ships with watertight doors (WTDs) often fitted in the bulkheads. Awareness of the ship flooding risk due to open WTDs and the conditions under which the associated risk level changes are prerequisites for proactive risk mitigation. Accident risk is often expressed as...
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Corporate social responsibility and forward default risk under firm and industry heterogeneity
PublicationObjective: This study aims to evaluate the impact of corporate social responsibility on forward default risk (FDR) under the setting of firm and industry heterogeneity. Research Design & Methods: This study evaluated the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on FDR using the data of 497 companies from 2007-2021 in the S&P 500 index, taking into account firm and industry heterogeneity aspects. This study utilized instrumental...
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Application of Bayesian Networks in risk diagnostics arising from the degree of urban regeneration area degradation
PublicationUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RISK & SAFETY IN MEDICINE
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Journal of Education for Students Placed at Risk
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Jamba-Journal of Disaster Risk Studies
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