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Search results for: INFLATION FORECAST TARGETING, INFLATION FORECAST, CREDIBILITY INDEX, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
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Sailing Vessel Routing Considering Safety Zone and Penalty Time for Altering Course
PublicationIn this paper we introduce new model for simulation sea vessel routing. Besides a vessel types (polar diagram) and weather forecast, travel security and the number of maneuvers are considered. Based on these data both the minimal travelling costs and the minimal processing time are found for different vessels and different routes. To test our model the applications SailingAssistance wad improved. The obtained results shows that...
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublicationDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk
PublicationThe objective of this study is to develop a multi-factor decision system predicting insolvency risk for natural persons with the use of fuzzy sets. Considering that the financial situation of households is affected by various endogenous and exogenous factors, the main assumption of this study is that the system for predicting financial difficulties should not be limited to the use of only a few financial variables concerning consumers,...
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Capacity analysis of the selected track system in partially ordered space
PublicationA proper location of the interval sections has significant impact on the traffic flow in the railway track network. This issue is critical during line modernization as well as when a new solution accounting for the traffic forecast at particular element of the railway track network is developed . However, the situation is more complex and more expensive for railway stations since improvement of the capacity requires critical organizational...
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System numerycznej prognozy pogody oparty na pakiecie WRF EMS
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono zagadnienia dotyczące wykorzystania systemów numerycznego prognozowania pogody przy pomocy oprogramowania wchodzącego w skład pakietu WRF EMS (ang. Weather Research and Forecast Environmental Modeling System). Artykuł opisuje podstawowe równania modelujące procesy w atmosferze oraz architekturę systemu numerycznego prognozowania pogody WRF EMS. Przedstawiono także architekturę prototypu systemu informacji...
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublicationPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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Application of Support Vector Machine for Determination of Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Buildings
PublicationThe aim of the article is to present an algorithm of Support Vector Machine created to forecast the impact of traffic-induced vibrations on residential buildings. The method is designed to classify the object into one of two classes. The classification into the first class means that there is no impact of vibrations on the building, while classification to the second class indicates the possible influence and suggests the execution...
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Operational Enhancement of Numerical Weather Prediction with Data from Real-time Satellite Images
PublicationNumerical weather prediction (NWP) is a rapidly expanding field of science, which is related to meteorology, remote sensing and computer science. Authors present methods of enhancing WRF EMS (Weather Research and Forecast Environmental Modeling System) weather prediction system using data from satellites equipped with AMSU sensor (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit). The data is acquired with Department of Geoinformatics’ ground...
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The multivariate multilevel analisis of different regional factors impact on road saferty in european country regions = Wielopoziomowa analiza wieloczynnikowa wpływu różnych charakterystyk regionalnych na poziom bezpieczeństwo ruchu w regionach krajów europejskich
PublicationIn this research, the effect of the European regional differences on the risk of been killed in road accident in these regions is investigated. Factors which differentiate regions can be described as automotive, economic, infrastructural, demographic, geographic. Analyzed risk, counted as regional fatality rate was modeled by the Poisson model. Because of regional diversity of Poisson distribution parameters, the Poisson distribution...
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Application of Multivariate Analysis Methods in Welding Engineering
PublicationPhenomena and processes taking place during welding are usually very complex and, for this reason, should be described using multivariate methods. The article discusses the methodological basis and selected application areas as regards the solving of welding problems using statistical multivariate methods. In addition, the article presents exemplary applications of the design of experiment, multiple regression analysis, cluster...
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Exergy and Energy Analyses of Microwave Dryer for Cantaloupe Slice and Prediction of Thermodynamic Parameters Using ANN and ANFIS Algorithms
PublicationThe study targeted towards drying of cantaloupe slices with various thicknesses in a microwave dryer. The experiments were carried out at three microwave powers of 180, 360, and 540 W and three thicknesses of 2, 4, and 6 mm for cantaloupe drying, and the weight variations were determined. Artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were exploited to investigate energy and exergy indices of...
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ANALIZA PRZEPUSTOWOŚCI WYBRANEGO UKŁADU TOROWEGO W PRZESTRZENI CZĘŚCIOWO – UPORZĄDKOWANEJ
PublicationNa sieci kolejowej istotny wpływ na płynność ruchu mają odpowiednio usytuowane odcinki odstępowe. Z podobną sytuacją mamy do czynienia przy modernizacji stacji kolejowych i tworzeniu nowych rozwiązań, w których należy uwzględnić prognozy rozwoju ruchu na danym elemencie sieci kolejowej. Jednak w przypadku stacji sytuacja staje się dużo bardziej skomplikowana i kosztowna, gdyż poprawa przepustowości wymaga istotnych zmian organizacyjnych...
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Analysis and bioanalysis: an effective tool for data collection of environmental conditions and processes
PublicationReliable information that allows us to estimate the state of the environment and to forecast changes in the ecosystem are constantly required. Increasing environmental consciousness and dynamic development of analytical techniques are the main reasons for determining the wide range of pollutants occurring at very low concentrations in complex matrix samples. The presence and concentration of many of those pollutants in the environment...
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A multi-agent method for periodicity detection in distributed events
PublicationMulti-agent systems working in constantly changing environments may be challenged by instantaneous unavailability of their autonomous agents caused e.g. by limited computing resources. A new method of self-organization of distributed service components is proposed, suitable for multi-agent systems. This method relies on particular agents carrying out separate analyzes of their individual processing loads or other specific events....
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Road safety information system in Poland - supporting tools and their development
PublicationAs a signatory to the UN Declaration on road safety and member of the EU, Poland has an obligation to comply with relevant EU policies and in particular to halve the overall number of road deaths by 2020. To monitor the progress in reaching the targets, the road safety situation must be evaluated and its processes understood. For this purpose regional and national road safety observatories were launched in Poland, which triggered...
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CUTTING POWER FORECASTING WHILE WOOD SAWING: FRACTURE MECHANICS APPROACH AND AXELSSON’S MODEL COMPARISON
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Another way is to forecast cutting power consumption on...
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Predicting the impact of traffic–induced vibrations on buildings using artificial neural networks
PublicationTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to a building, cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load–bearing elements or even a global structural collapse of the whole structure [1-4]. Vibrations measurements of real structures are costly and laborious, not justified in all cases. The aim of the paper is to create an original algorithm, to predict the negative dynamic impact on the examined residential building...
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Metodologia budowy modelu sieci połączonych systemów UCTE i obliczania wskaźników służączych do oceny zagrożeń współpracy systemu europejskiego.
PublicationLiberalizacja rynku energii doprowadziła do znacznego zwiększenia obrotów energią elektryczną pomiędzy systemami elektroenergetycznymi. Operatorzy Systemów Przesyłowych są zobligowania do prognozowania rozpływow mocy w połączonych systemach i identyfikowania zagrożeń systemowych nawet w cyklach dobowych - na dzień nastepny. w referacie zostana omówione elementy występujące w procesie tworzenia modelu sieci przesyłowej systemów...
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The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting
PublicationThe article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive...
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublicationThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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Comparison of Traffic Flow Models with Real Traffic Data Based on a Quantitative Assessment
PublicationThe fundamental relationship of traffic flow and bivariate relations between speed and flow, speed and density, and flow and density are of great importance in transportation engineering. Fundamental relationship models may be applied to assess and forecast traffic conditions at uninterrupted traffic flow facilities. The objective of the article was to analyze and compare existing models of the fundamental relationship. To that...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublicationThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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Methods of liquid biofuels production - the bioethanol example.
PublicationEthanol is used in chemical and food industry, mainly either in the synthesis or as a solvent. The newest application of ethanol is as a fuel. This alcohol, produced on an industrial scale from crop waste, is widely known under the name bioethanol. It could be used as a fuel by itself or in a mixture with gasoline. Today, there are several technologies for bioethanol production known. The relatively simple method of obtaining bioethanol...
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METHODS OF LIQUID BIOFUEL PRODUCTION – THE BIOETHANOL EXAMPLE
PublicationEthanol is used in chemical and food industry, mainly either in the synthesis or as a solvent. The newest application of ethanol is as a fuel. This alcohol, produced on an industrial scale from crop waste, is widely known under the name bioethanol. It could be used as a fuel by itself or in a mixture with gasoline. Today, there are several technologies for bioethanol production known. The relatively simple method of obtaining bioethanol...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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The Possibility of Phase Change Materials (PCM) Usage to Increase Efficiency of the Photovoltaic Modules
PublicationSolar energy is widely available, free and inexhaustible. Furthermore this source of energy is the most friendly to the environment. For direct conversion of solar energy into useful forms like of electricity and thermal energy, respectively photovoltaic cells and solar collectors are being used. Forecast indicate that the first one solution will soon have a significant part in meeting the global energy demand. Therefore it is...
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A survey on network resiliency methodologies against weather-based disruptions
PublicationDue to the increasing dependence on network services of our society, research has recently been concentrating on enhancing traditional protection strategies to withstand large-scale failures, as in case of disaster events. The recently-formed EU-funded RECODIS project aims at coordinating and fostering research collaboration in Europe on disaster resiliency in communication networks. In particular, the Working Group (WG) 2 of the...
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Machine-Learning Methods for Estimating Performance of Structural Concrete Members Reinforced with Fiber-Reinforced Polymers
PublicationIn recent years, fiber-reinforced polymers (FRP) in reinforced concrete (RC) members have gained significant attention due to their exceptional properties, including lightweight construction, high specific strength, and stiffness. These attributes have found application in structures, infrastructures, wind power equipment, and various advanced civil products. However, the production process and the extensive testing required for...
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Ruchotwórczość wielkopowierzchniowych obiektów handlowych trzeciej generacji na przykładzie Trójmiasta
PublicationWielkopowierzchniowe obiekty (handlowe, usługowe itp.) generują ruch o dużych natężeniach, które często przekraczają możliwości przepustowe przyległego układu ulicznego. Wpływają w ten sposób na znaczne pogorszenie się warunków ruchu w najbliższym otoczeniu obiektu i zakłócenia w prawidłowym funkcjonowaniu systemu transportowego miasta. Wobec braku polskich doświadczeń konieczne jest badanie wpływu wybranych czynników demograficznych,...
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Influence of sensor design and optical properties of tissue on the photoplethysmographic signal
PublicationPhotopletysmography and an associated technique called pulse oximetry are still explored due to the expectations that they give a lot of information about the state of the patient and, also, due to the fact that they are non invasive. Knowledge about the impact of various parameters on the measured signal leads to a faster and a more reliable way of analyzing measurement results and finding the dependencies between the involved...
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Optimization issues in distributed computing systems design
PublicationIn recent years, we observe a growing interest focused on distributed computing systems. Both industry and academia require increasing computational power to process and analyze large amount of data, including significant areas like analysis of medical data, earthquake, or weather forecast. Since distributed computing systems – similar to computer networks – are vulnerable to failures, survivability mechanisms are indispensable...
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Novel Complementary Multiple Concentric Split Ring Resonator for Reliable Characterization of Dielectric Substrates with High Sensitivity
PublicationAccurate characterization of dielectric substrates with high sensitivity remains an important challenge in a variety of industrial applications. This paper proposes an innovative strategy to address this challenge by developing and optimizing a unique Complementary Multiple Concentric Split Ring Resonator (CMC-SRR). The major goal is to propose a sensor design with increased sensitivity and reliability for dielectric characterization....
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Analiza możliwości wzrostu udziału transportu zbiorowego w wojewódzkich przewozach pasażerskich na przykładzie województwa pomorskiego
PublicationPodział zadań przewozowych pomiędzy dostępne środki transportu jest jednym z kluczowych wyzwań przy opracowaniu Planów Transportowych w regionach. Stan aktualny i prognozy prowadzone na obszarze Unii Europejskiej wskazują, że w najbliższych latach dominującym środkiem transportu pasażerskiego będzie samochód osobowy z zarysowującą się tendencją wzrostową. Dlatego bardzo istotnym działaniem przy budowie zintegrowanego systemu transportu...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Insulation Properties of Lightweight Concrete
PublicationPredicting the properties of concrete before its design and application process allows for refining and optimizing its composition. However, the properties of lightweight concrete are much harder to predict than those of normal weight concrete, especially if the forecast concerns the insulating properties of concrete with artificial lightweight aggregate (LWA). It is possible to use porous aggregates and precisely modify the composition...
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Geographic Information System for Flood Hazard Analysis and Early Warning Using Numerical Weather Predictions
PublicationFloods are a phenomenon which causes significant losses of lives as well as property damage, which in turn severely impact the local economy. The nature of a flooding has been well researched, and several methods of flood hazard simulation have been established over the last decades. The current legislation in the European Union requires the Member States to create, maintain and update flood risk and hazard maps, as well as identify...
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Improving the prediction of biochar production from various biomass sources through the implementation of eXplainable machine learning approaches
PublicationExamining the game-changing possibilities of explainable machine learning techniques, this study explores the fast-growing area of biochar production prediction. The paper demonstrates how recent advances in sensitivity analysis methodology, optimization of training hyperparameters, and state-of-the-art ensemble techniques have greatly simplified and enhanced the forecasting of biochar output and composition from various biomass...
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HOW TO ASSESS THE MATURITY OF SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES TO LEAN SIX SIGMA PROJECTS
PublicationThis article describes the considerations for the implementation of the Lean Six Sigma (LSS) methodology in small and medium-sized enterprises. Pilot research was conducted in Polish and French SMEs (nine Polish and nine French enterprises from the service and production sectors) referring to the context of the implementation and application of the Lean Six Sigma concept. The studies led to the identification of the motives, needs,...
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Analiza skuteczności wybranych strategii kontrariańskich na warszawskiej GPW w latach 2014–2018
PublicationCapital multiplication is the main goal of investors and for many years they have been looking for methods and strategies that would enable them to achieve it to the greatest possible extent. Due to the fact that the expectations and characteristics of investors, including those concerning the investment period, are diverse, multiple strategies have emerged. One of such strategies, mainly long-term in nature, is the so-called...
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Rural Building in Opole Silesia During the Period of the Frederician Colonization
PublicationThe aim of the article is to present the rural construction in the Opole countryside (Poland) during the “Frederician colonization”. Showing socio-economic areas of Opole villages, differing from each other, the differences of which resulted from the environmental conditions influencing the processes of enfranchisement and industrialization. These processes at the turn of the 17th and 19th centuries influenced the image of the...
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A Proposed Soft Computing Model for Ultimate Strength Estimation of FRP-Confined Concrete Cylinders
PublicationIn this paper, the feed-forward backpropagation neural network (FFBPNN) is used to propose a new formulation for predicting the compressive strength of fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP)-confined concrete cylinders. A set of experimental data has been considered in the analysis. The data include information about the dimensions of the concrete cylinders (diameter, length) and the total thickness of FRP layers, unconfined ultimate concrete...
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Fatigue of titanium alloy Ti6Al4V with diamond structure obtained by Laser Power Bed Fusion method
PublicationThis paper presents the results of fatigue tests conducted on Ti6Al4V titanium alloy with diamond structure obtained by the Laser Power Bed Fusion method. Samples used in tests were printed with porosities: 81%, 73%, 50%, 34% and near-zero porosity. Samples were subjected to cyclic tests with a constant stress amplitude. The number of cycles until sample failure was registered. Obtained fatigue test results made it possible to...
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Intensification of catechin extraction from the bark of Syzygium cumini using ultrasonication: Optimization, characterization, degradation analysis and kinetic studies
PublicationCatechin is a prominent polyphenolic component that possesses various medicinal properties. Present work communicates the intensification and optimization of catechin extraction from the bark of Syzygium cumini tree using stirred reactor, soxhlet, ultrasonic bath, and ultrasonic horn technique. The optimization of several parameters such as type of solvent, solid to solvent ratio (1:100 w/v), speed of agitation (300 RPM), extraction...
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Analysis of electricity generation variability in 2019 with special consideration of electrical energy generation from wind sources.
PublicationThis article presents issues related to the broadly understood development of wind energy. The state of the art of wind energy in the world has been discussed. This paper also shows issues related to factors affecting the development of renewable energy sources and their impact on the natural environment on the basis of available research. The focus is, however, on the critical analysis of phenomena in the data of the Transmission...
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EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVENESS OF WATERJET PROPULSOR FOR A SMALL UNDERWATER VEHICLE
PublicationT he goal of the project described is to replace the existing propulsion system of a small underwater vehicle with a solution less prone to mechanical damage and ensuring a lower risk of the entanglement of fibrous objects suspended in the body of water. Four typical marine screws are utilised in the current design of the vehicle. One possible solution of the problem is the application of waterjet propulsors located...
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Spatiotemporal Assessment of Satellite Image Time Series for Land Cover Classification Using Deep Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Reunion Island, France
PublicationCurrent Earth observation systems generate massive amounts of satellite image time series to keep track of geographical areas over time to monitor and identify environmental and climate change. Efficiently analyzing such data remains an unresolved issue in remote sensing. In classifying land cover, utilizing SITS rather than one image might benefit differentiating across classes because of their varied temporal patterns. The aim...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Agent-based social network as a simulation of a market behaviour
PublicationRecent years and the outbreak of world's economic crisis in 2008 proved the crucial importance of reliable analysis of market dynamics. However, werarely apply models of proper detail level (the global prosperity forecast of 2007 can be seen as a grim proof). The behaviour of individuals and companies is far from being ideal and rational. Many claims that the economic paradigm of rational expectations (coming from J. Muth and R....
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On Memory-Based Precise Calibration of Cost-Efficient NO2 Sensor Using Artificial Intelligence and Global Response Correction
PublicationNitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a prevalent air pollutant, particularly abundant in densely populated urban regions. Given its harmful impact on health and the environment, precise real-time monitoring of NO2 concentration is crucial, particularly for devising and executing risk mitigation strategies. However, achieving precise measurements of NO2 is challenging due to the need for expensive and cumbersome equipment. This has spurred...
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Displacement piles - classification and methods for the calculation of bearing capacity.
PublicationDisplacement piles belong to a group of technologies whose main idea is to install or make a pile without extracting ground material. According to definition, contained in PN-EN:1997-1:2008, displacement piles should be considered as driven, pressed in using vibrators and made with the use of spread augers. The classification of piles used so far with regard to the technology of execution is modified. An additional element is the...