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Search results for: uncertainty theory
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Airfoil Design Under Uncertainty Using Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos Theory and Utility Functions
PublicationFast and accurate airfoil design under uncertainty using non-intrusive polynomial chaos (NIPC) expansions and utility functions is proposed. The NIPC expansions provide a means to efficiently and accurately compute statistical information for a given set of input variables with associated probability distribution. Utility functions provide a way to rigorously formulate the design problem. In this work, these two methods are integrated...
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Steering is an essential feature of non-locality in quantum theory
PublicationA physical theory is called non-local when observers can produce instantaneous effects over distant systems. Non-local theories rely on two fundamental effects: local uncertainty relations and steering of physical states at a distance. In quantum mechanics, the former one dominates the other in a well-known class of non-local games known as XOR games. In particular, optimal quantum strategies for XOR games are completely determined...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublicationA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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Estimating the uncertainty of the liquid mass flow using the orifice plate
PublicationThe article presents estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. This subject is essential because of the widespread use of this type of flow meters, which renders not only the quantitative estimation but also qualitative results of this type so those measurements are important. To achieve this goal, the authors of the paper propose to use the theory of uncertainty. The article shows the...
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Uncertainty of the liquid mass flow measurement using the orifice plate
PublicationThe article presents an estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. This subject is essential because of the widespread use of this type of flow meters. Not only the quantitative estimation but also the qualitative results of those measurements are important. To achieve these results the authors of the paper propose to use the theory of uncertainty. The article shows the analysis of the...
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Sampling Strategies: Statistics of Sampling
PublicationEach step of the analytical procedure has a significant influence on the final result of the analysis. In the majority of cases the analytical procedure encompasses sampling because the analysis of the entire object (material) is usually not possible. Thus it is necessary to include the uncertainty related to sampling procedure in the uncertainty budget calculations. In the paper: the most important properties of the analysed...
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Strategic aspects in spatial planning - theory and practice in largest cities of Poland
PublicationThe rate of changes and the growing uncertainty rise to the need for a strategic approach to development planning, which is active and flexible in relation to the changing reality. Strategic planning, occurring in companies, was adapted by the social-economic development planning of self-government units. However, there are difficulties in applying the strategic planning in the spatial planning and integration of the two forms...
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Analysis of the objects images on the sea using Dempster-Shafer Theory
PublicationThe paper presents the concept of using aerial and satellite imagery or images coming from the marine radar to identify and track vessels at sea. The acquired data were subjected to a highly advanced image analysis. The development of remote sensing techniques allows to gain a huge amount of data. These data are useful information source however usually we have to use different data mining methods to gain interested information....
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Profesor Stanisław Trzetrzewiński – polski prekursor niepewności pomiaru
PublicationArtykuł ma na celu przybliżenie sylwetki Profesora Stanisława Trzetrzewińskiego, jako pierwszego kierownika Katedry Miernictwa Elektrycznego na Wydziale Elektrycznym Politechniki Gdańskiej, odpowiedzialnego za organizację Katedry po wojnie, dydaktyka, ale przede wszystkim wybitnego metrologa. Profesora Stanisława Trzetrzewińskiego można nazwać polskim prekursorem teorii niepewności pomiaru, co potwierdza wygłoszony w 1952 roku...
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Information content of systems as a physical principle
PublicationTo explain the conceptual gap between classical and quantum and other, hypothetical descriptions of the world, several principles have been proposed. So far, all these principles have not explicitly included the uncertainty relation. Here we introduce an information content principle ( ICP ) which represents a constrained uncertainty principle. The principle, by taking into account the encoding and decoding properties of a single physical...
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Robust asymptotic super twisting sliding mode observer for non-linear uncertain biochemical systems
PublicationThe problem of state estimation (reconstruction of the state vector) for a given class of biochemical systems under uncertain system dynamics has been addressed in this paper. In detail, the bioreactor at a water resource recovery facility represents the considered biochemical systems. The biochemical processes taking place in the bioreactor have been modelled using an activated sludge model. Based on this model, an appropriate...
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Quality Assurance and Quality Control in the Analytical Chemical Laboratory. A practical approach : Second edition
PublicationThe second edition defines the tools used in QA/QC, especially the application of statistical tools during analytical data treatment. Clearly written and logically organized, it takes a generic approach applicable to any field of analysis. The authors begin with the theory behind quality control systems, then detail validation parameter measurements, the use of statistical tests, counting the margin of error, uncertainty estimation,...
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Observation Value Analysis – Integral Part of Bayesian Diagnostics
PublicationThe decision making process, in general, is understood as a process of selecting one of the available solutions to the problem. One of possible approaches supporting the process is Bayesian statistical decision theory providing a mathematical model to make decisions of a technical nature in conditions of uncertainty. Regarding above, a detailed subject of the research is to analyze the value of the observation, which is a part...
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Locally Adaptive Cooperative Kalman Smoothing and Its Application to Identification of Nonstationary Stochastic Systems
PublicationOne of the central problems of the stochastic approximation theory is the proper adjustment of the smoothing algorithm to the unknown, and possibly time-varying, rate and mode of variation of the estimated signals/parameters. In this paper we propose a novel locally adaptive parallel estimation scheme which can be used to solve the problem of fixed-interval Kalman smoothing in the presence of model uncertainty. The proposed solution...
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Trade-offs in multiparty Bell-inequality violations in qubit networks
PublicationTwo overlapping bipartite binary input Bell inequalities cannot be simultaneously violated as this would contradict the usual no-signalling principle. This property is known as monogamy of Bell inequality violations and generally Bell monogamy relations refer to trade-offs between simultaneous violations of multiple inequalities. It turns out that multipartite Bell inequalities admit weaker forms of monogamies that allow for violations...
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A robust sliding mode observer for non-linear uncertain biochemical systems
PublicationA problem of state estimation for a certain class of non-linear uncertain systems has been addressed in this paper. In particular, a sliding mode observer has been derived to produce robust and stable estimates of the state variables. The stability and robustness of the proposed sliding mode observer have been investigated under parametric and unstructured uncertainty in the system dynamics. In order to ensure an unambiguous non-linear...
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Critical Review on Robust Speed Control Techniques for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM) Speed Regulation
PublicationThe permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) is a highly efficient energy saving machine. Due to its simple structural characteristics, good heat radiation capability, and high efficiency, PMSMs are gradually replacing AC induction motors in many industrial applications. The PMSM has a nonlinear system and lies on parameters that differ over time with complex high-class dynamics. To achieve the excessive performance operation...
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Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk
PublicationThe process of decision-making in public procurement of construction projects during the preparation and implementation phases ought to be supported by risk identification, assessment, and management. In risk assessment one has to take into account factors that lead to risk events (background info), as well as the information about the risk symptoms (monitoring info). Typically once the risks have been assessed a decision-maker...
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Accounting for the distributions of input quantities in the procedure for the measurement uncertainty evaluation when calibrating the goniometer
PublicationThe discords concerning the measurement uncertainty evaluation in the Guide to the Expressing of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and its Supplement 1 are considered. To overcome these discords, the authors of the paper propose to use the kurtosis method and the law of the propagation of the expanded uncertainty. Using the example of the goniometer calibration, the features of accounting for the distribution laws of input quantities...
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Cryptocurrencies as a speculative asset. How much uncertainty is included in cryptocurrency price?
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between uncertainty indices (Geopolitical Uncertainty Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index) and cryptocurrencies. In order to conduct research, the authors collected the data on the major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Dogecoin and USD coin) which account for 78% of the total market cap. Using panel OLS regression, this study finds that Bitcoin...
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Conjectured strong complementary-correlations tradeoff
PublicationWe conjecture uncertainty relations that restrict correlations between the results of measurements performed by two separate parties on a shared quantum state. The first uncertainty relation bounds the sum of two mutual informations when one party measures a single observable and the other party measures one of two observables. The uncertainty relation does not follow from the Maassen-Uffink uncertainty relation and is much stronger...
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The Influence of Camera and Optical System Parameters on the Uncertainty of Object Location Measurement in Vision Systems
PublicationThe article presents the influence of the camera and its optical system on the uncertainty of object position measurement in vision systems. The aim of the article is to present the methodology for estimating the combined standard uncertainty of measuring the object position with a vision camera treated as a measuring device. The identification of factors affecting the location measurement uncertainty and the determination of their...
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Trust-Based Model for the Assessment of the Uncertainty of Measurements in Hybrid IoT Networks
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to introduce a NUT model (NUT: network-uncertainty-trust) that aids the decrease of the uncertainty of measurements in autonomous hybrid Internet of Things sensor networks. The problem of uncertainty in such networks is a consequence of various operating conditions and varied quality of measurement nodes, making statistical approach less successful. This paper presents a model for decreasing the uncertainty...
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Impact of probability distribution on the uncertainty of resistance measurement
PublicationThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of resistance: 100 G. The analysis of the uncertainty...
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Validation of a sampling procedure
PublicationEach step of the analytical procedure influences the final results in a significant way. In the majority of cases the analytical procedure encompasses sampling because the analysis of the entire object (material) is usually not possible. Thus it is necessary to include the uncertainty related to sampling procedure in the uncertainty budget calculations. This paper describes two basic ways of estimating the sampling uncertainty,...
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Uncertainty of Postmortem Time Estimation Based on Potassium Ion Determination in Vitreous Humor Using Potentiometric Ion-Selective Electrode and Microwave-Induced Plasma with Optical Emission Spectrometry Methods
PublicationThere is a need for a reliable and independent evaluation and confirmation of the post-mortem interval (PMI) based on objective factors other than only postmortem changes or temperature measurements. Estimating the PMI by examining the concentration of potassium ions in the vitreous humor (VH) has a tradition in forensic toxicology dating back to the mid-20th century. So far, the methods for determining the presence of potassium...
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INFLUENCE OF WRONGLY ASSUMED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF RESISTANCE MEASUREMENT BY TECHNICAL METHOD
PublicationThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The most commonly used distribution is the rectangular distribution. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of two resistances:...
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Static electric multipole susceptibilities of the relativistic hydrogenlike atom in the ground state: Application of the Sturmian expansion of the generalized Dirac-Coulomb Green function
PublicationThe ground state of the Dirac one-electron atom, placed in a weak, static electric field of definite $2^{L}$ polarity, is studied within the framework of the first-order perturbation theory. The Sturmian expansion of the generalized Dirac-Coulomb Green function [R. Szmytkowski, J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 30, 825 (1997); erratum R. Szmytkowski, J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 30, 2747 (1997)] is used to derive closed-form analytical...
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Determination of the uncertainty of mass flow measurement using the orifice for different values of the Reynolds number
PublicationStandard orifice flowmeters are widely used in the chemical and energy industry. Therefore, it is essential to know how accurate the measurements made with these instruments are. The paper presents an estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. The authors will present the influence of ranges of the Reynolds number on the estimated uncertainty, obtained on the basis of simulation and laboratory...
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Estimation of the uncertainty of the AC/AC transducer output voltage
PublicationThe paper presents a methodology for estimating uncertainty of voltage transducers processing function, on the example of CYVS411D07 voltage transducers. The analysis was conducted using the method based on the GUM Guide propagation of uncertainty law and the determination of the coverage factor based on the effective number of degrees of freedom (t-Student distribution). The paper also presents example evaluation results of measured...
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Estimation of the uncertainty of the LEM CV 3-500 transducers processing function
PublicationThe paper presents the methodology for estimating uncertainty of a voltage transducer processing function based on the example of LEM CV 3-500 transducer. The analysis was performed using the method based on the GUM Guide propagation of uncertainty law and the Monte Carlo numerical method. The article also presents a comparative analysis of the results of a voltage measurement evaluation done using the Monte Carlo simulation method,...
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Uncertainty estimation of loop impedance measurement determined by the vector method
PublicationThis article presents a detailed analysis of uncertainty estimation of loop impedance measurement determined by the vector method. The analysis includes the following estimates: resistance variance, voltage variance and time measurement variance. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the combined standard uncertainty of loop impedance by the vector method. The vector method allows to determine loop impedance based on...
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the controland protection systems under uncertainty
PublicationThe probabilistic models of the electrical, electronic and programmable electronic (E/E/PE)systems, which are proposed in the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 standards, do not cover the uncertainty aspectsof results obtained from these models. The proposed method takes into consideration the sensitivity analysisof probabilistic models of E/E/PE systems as well as the uncertainty of probabilistic results. It uses differentialfactors, which...
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Peculiarities of measurement uncertainty evaluation at calibrating a ring gauge
PublicationExample S13 from EA-4/02 M:2013 “Calibration of a ring gauge with a nominal diameter of 90 mm” is analyzed. The report uses the kurtosis method and the law of propagation of expanded uncertainty developed by the authors to the expanded uncertainty evaluation. It is shown that the introduction of a coaxiality correction for the ring gauge and the measuring axis of the comparator leads to the need to estimate its standard measurement...
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Uncertainty of mass flow measurement using centric and eccentric orifice for Reynolds number in the range 10,000 ≤ Re ≤ 20,000
PublicationThe article analyses the impact of the Reynolds number on the estimated uncertainty of the mass flow rate measurement using an orifice plate. The objects of the research were two types of orifices: centric (ISA) and eccentric, with the diameter ratio β = 0.5. Studies were performed by Monte Carlo simulation and experiments for Reynolds numbers in the range 10,000 ≤ Re ≤ 20,000. The obtained results have shown that for both orifice...
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Expedited Variable-Resolution Surrogate Modeling of Miniaturized Microwave Passives in Confined Domains
PublicationDesign of miniaturized microwave components is largely based on computational models, primarily, full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulations. EM analysis is capable of giving an accurate account for cross-coupling effects, substrate and radiation losses, or interactions with environmental components (e.g., connectors). Unfortunately, direct execution of EM-based design tasks such as parametric optimization or uncertainty quantification,...
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Reliable computationally-efficient behavioral modeling of microwave passives using deep learning surrogates in confined domains
PublicationThe importance of surrogate modeling techniques has been steadily growing over the recent years in high-frequency electronics, including microwave engineering. Fast metamodels are employed to speedup design processes, especially those conducted at the level of full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulations. The surrogates enable massive system evaluations at nearly EM accuracy and negligible costs, which is invaluable in parameter...
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Uncertainty quantification of modal parameter estimates obtained from subspace identification: An experimental validation on a laboratory test of a large-scale wind turbine blade
PublicationThe uncertainty afflicting modal parameter estimates stems from e.g., the finite data length, unknown, or partly measured inputs and the choice of the identification algorithm. Quantification of the related errors with the statistical Delta method is a recent tool, useful in many modern modal analysis applications e.g., damage diagnosis, reliability analysis, model calibration. In this paper, the Delta method-based uncertainty...
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Tolerance-Aware Optimization of Microwave Circuits by Means of Principal Directions and Domain-Restricted Metamodels
PublicationPractical microwave design is most often carried out in the nominal sense. Yet, in some cases, performance degradation due to uncertainties may lead to the system failing to meet the prescribed specifications. Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is therefore important yet intricate from numerical standpoint, especially when the circuit at hand is to be evaluated using electromagnetic (EM) simulation tools. Tolerance-aware...
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Uncertainty analysis of measuring system for instantaneous power research
PublicationThe paper presents a metrological analysis of the measurement system used for diagnosis of induction motor bearings, based on the analysis of the instantaneous power. This system was implemented as a set of devices with dedicated software installed on a PC. A number of measurements for uncertainty estimation was carried out. The results of the measurements are presented in the paper. The results of the aforementioned analysis helped...
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Evaluation of expanded uncertainty of instantaneous power measurement in a bearing diagnostic system.
PublicationThe paper presents the issues concerning the estimation of the expanded uncertainty in the system for the diagnosis of rolling bearings, consisting of transducers: voltage and current voltage, which is used for diagnostic bearing motors method based on the measurement and analysis of the instantaneous power signal consumed by the induction motor. It presents the methodology for assessing the measurement uncertainty and presents...
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Uncertainty in emotion recognition
PublicationPurpose–The purpose of this paper is to explore uncertainty inherent in emotion recognition technologiesand the consequences resulting from that phenomenon.Design/methodology/approach–The paper is a general overview of the concept; however, it is basedon a meta-analysis of multiple experimental and observational studies performed over the past couple of years.Findings–The mainfinding of the paper might be summarized as follows:...
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Local variability in snow concentrations of chlorinated persistent organic pollutants as a source of large uncertainty in interpreting spatial patterns at all scales
PublicationSingle point sampling, a widespread practice in snow studies in remote areas, due to logistical constraints, can present an unquantified error to the final study results. The low concentrations of studied chemicals, such as chlorinated persistent organic pollutants, contribute to the uncertainty. We conducted a field experiment in the Arctic to estimate the error stemming from differences in the composition of snow at short distances...
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Modeling nutrient removal and energy consumption in an advanced activated sludge system under uncertainty
PublicationActivated sludge models are widely used to simulate, optimize and control performance of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). For simulation of nutrient removal and energy consumption, kinetic parameters would need to be estimated, which requires an extensive measurement campaign. In this study, a novel methodology is proposed for modeling the performance and energy consumption of a biological nutrient removal activated sludge system...
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Efficient uncertainty quantification using sequential sampling-based neural networks
PublicationUncertainty quantification (UQ) of an engineered system involves the identification of uncertainties, modeling of the uncertainties, and the forward propagation of the uncertainties through a system analysis model. In this work, a novel surrogate-based forward propagation algorithm for UQ is proposed. The proposed algorithm is a new and unique extension of the recent efficient global optimization using neural network (NN)-based...
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Constrained aerodynamic shape optimization using neural networks and sequential sampling
PublicationAerodynamic shape optimization (ASO) involves computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based search for an optimal aerodynamic shape such as airfoils and wings. Gradient-based optimization (GBO) with adjoints can be used efficiently to solve ASO problems with many design variables, but problems with many constraints can still be challenging. The recently created efficient global optimization algorithm with neural network (NN)-based prediction...
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Estimating the uncertainty of discharge coefficient predicted for oblique side weir using Monte Carlo method
PublicationSide weir is a hydraulic structure, which is used in irrigation systems to divert some water from main to side channel. It is installed at the entrance of the side channel to control and measure passing water into the side channel. Many studies provided side weir water surface profile and coefficient of discharge to measure water discharge diverted into the side channel. These studies dealt with different side weir shapes (rectangular,...
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Adaptive Sampling for Non-intrusive Reduced Order Models Using Multi-Task Variance
PublicationNon-intrusive reduced order modeling methods (ROMs) have become increasingly popular for science and engineering applications such as predicting the field-based solutions for aerodynamic flows. A large sample size is, however, required to train the models for global accuracy. In this paper, a novel adaptive sampling strategy is introduced for these models that uses field-based uncertainty as a sampling metric. The strategy uses...
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Cryptocurrencies as a Speculative Asset: How Much Uncertainty is Included in Cryptocurrency Price?
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between uncertainty indices (Geopolitical Uncertainty Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index) and cryptocurrencies. This study evaluated the behavior of cryptocurrencies with the evolution of uncertainties (GPU, EPU) on returns and volatility in terms of safe heaven as in traditional specualtive assets it increases their volaitility and reduces risk. For this purpose,...
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Uncertainty Quantification in Experimental Structural Dynamics Identification of Composite Material Structures
PublicationComposite materials are widely used in manufacture of aerospace and wind energy structural components. These load carrying structures are subjected to dynamic time-varying loading conditions. Robust structural dynamics identification procedure impose tight constraints on the quality of modal models estimates obtained from vibration experiments. Modal testing results are influenced by numerous factors introducing uncertainty to...