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Search results for: forecasting
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Adaptive prediction of stock exchange indices by state space wavelet networks
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the Warsaw Stock Exchange price index WIG20 by applying a state space wavelet network model of the index price. The approach can be applied to the development of tools for predicting changes of other economic indicators, especially stock exchange indices. The paper presents a general state space wavelet network model and the underlying principles. The model is applied to produce one session...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Consequences of russia’s military invasion of Ukraine for Polish-Ukrainian trade relations
PublicationAn accurate forecast of interstate trade volume allows for short-term and long-term planning, particularly deciding on state budget revenues, foreign exchange earnings, border arrangement, other infrastructure, migration and social policies. Hostilities are destructive so the russian military aggression against Ukraine in 2022 needs to be assessed in terms of its effects on key economic aspects of Polish-Ukrainian relations, as...
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublicationThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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Fuel price, income and road safety as determinants of the level of the population’s economic well-being in Poland
PublicationThe opportunity to travel is one of the most favorite human activities, given that on a trip a person gets new knowledge, impressions and positive emotions. Recreational trips occupy a prominent place in the concept of the economics of happiness, and the study of factors that influence decision-making regarding travel is important for forecasting the number of tourists, infrastructure development, income and expenses of businesses...
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Prognozowanie ostrzegawcze w małej firmie
PublicationW artykule pokazano możliwości zastosowania prostych metod prognostycznych do ostrzegania w małej firmie przed niekorzystnymi zjawiskami. Przedmiotem badań jest sprzedaż, a ze względu na występowanie w szeregu czasowym sezonowości, w celu wyznaczenia sygnałów ostrzegawczych dokonano porównań trendów prognozowanych i rzeczywistych w okresach jednoimiennych za pomocą pierwszych różnic. Do prognozowania sprzedaży wykorzystano proste...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Tadeusz Widerski dr inż.
PeopleIn 1998, he passed his secondary school-leaving examination and graduated from the Mechanical Technical School with a machine-building profile in Dobre Miasto. In the years 1998-2003 he studied at the Faculty of Geodesy and Spatial Management of the University of Warmia and Mazury, where he obtained the title of Master of Science in Geodesy and Cartography. From 2005 to 2008 he was a student of the Doctoral Study in geotechnics...
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Lithuania inland waterways and its prospects
PublicationInland waterways have some traditions in Lithuania and in neighbor Countries, but during last 50 years other modes of transport move out inland waterway transport from real economical activity. In the same time inland waterways is the main green and sustainable transport system. In this article are presented analysis situation, methodology for the ships optimal using in inland waterways, forecasting of the possible cargo and passenger...
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Mode choice modelling for urban areas
PublicationThe article presents the question of mode choice modelling in a four-stage travel modelling process. The article indicates limitations of currently used simplified methods of mode choice modelling and presents the possibility of using a more detailed approach that accounts for additional, statistically significant factors with the use of advanced mathematical tools, discrete choice models. A need has also been identified to include...
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Wind speed, wind direction and solar radiation datasets; wind and solar energy resources analysis
Open Research DataDataset contain the results of wind speed, wind direction and solar radiation for wind and solar energy resources analysis performed in years 2008 and 2009. Application for efficiency and profitability of solar and wind power plants anaylsis and for energy generation forecasting algorithms design and anaysis. Datasets used in doctoral dissertations,...
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Machine learning for the management of biochar yield and properties of biomass sources for sustainable energy
PublicationBiochar is emerging as a potential solution for biomass conversion to meet the ever increasing demand for sustainable energy. Efficient management systems are needed in order to exploit fully the potential of biochar. Modern machine learning (ML) techniques, and in particular ensemble approaches and explainable AI methods, are valuable for forecasting the properties and efficiency of biochar properly. Machine-learning-based forecasts,...
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Interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management based on multi-agent system
PublicationThis article presents conception of interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management. The emphasis of the project is on real-time analysis and multi-media information, and the support of distributed and mobile clients through the Internet. The approach integrates meteorological data and forecasts, air quality and emission monitoring, dynamic 3D simulation modelling and forecasting,...
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Prediction of consumer electricity needs based on Internet weather forecasts
PublicationElectrical energy is considered both as an important driver for producing and transporting goods in companies, as well as a good in itself which requires planning and management for generating and delivering it to consumers in proper time and amounts. Weather information can be considered to convey part of the data on energy delivery needs of consumers. Free meteorological data sources on the Web do not offer consistent data to...
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Revisiting The Determination Of Cutting Power While Sawing Of Wood With Circular Saw Blades By Means Of Fracture Mechanics
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Cutting forces may be employed to determine not only toughness...
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The methodology for determining of the value of cutting power for cross cutting on optimizing sawing machine
PublicationIn the article the methodology of forecasting the energy effects of the cross-cutting process using the classical method, which takes into account the specific cutting resistance, is presented. The values of cutting power for the cross-cutting process of two types of wood (softwood and hardwood) were forecasted for the optimizing sawing machine with using presented methodology. The cross-cutting process with high values of feed...
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Application of road map of operating condition for estimation of fuel and electric energy consumption from city transport
PublicationThe paper presents procedure of data collecting and generation of road map of operating condition in the selected urban area. This map allows forecasting the selected vehicle operating parameters for the assumed road. The main parameters calculated using the road maps of operating conditions are: total energy spent to drive the selected vehicle, consumed fuel, travel time, average speed of travel, CO2 emissions. Presented example...
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Development of the Polish energy sector through transformation and harmonization with the European energy and climate policy
PublicationThe paper presents the dilemmas of energy sector development vs European energy policy due to the way of energy transition. The identification of barriers and opportunities for the development of the power industry is presented. The possibilities of using modern energy technologies for the processes of energy transformation are described. The path useful to achieving climate and energy goals is determined. The new method of electricity...
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PREDICTING CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES IN POLAND AND LITHUANIA – COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
PublicationThe research on predicting bankruptcies of enterprises constitutes one of the most important areas of financial management. In developed countries, the first publications on the subject appeared in the early 20th century. The situation is different in the countries of Eastern Europe, which introduced the market system already at the beginning of the 1990s, which resulted in first corporate bankruptcies. The article...
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Błażej Prusak dr hab.
PeopleBłażej Prusak is Head of the Department of Finance at the Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Research on Enterprise in Modern Economy - theory and practice (REME), as well as a member of editorial boards of such journals as Intellectual Economics; Space. Economics. Society; Academy of Management. He is the author or co-author of several scientific monographs including:...
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Małgorzata Gawrycka dr hab.
PeopleMałgorzata Gawrycka, a graduate of the Faculty of Management at the University of Gdańsk, PhD in economics. From 2012-2020, deputy dean for teaching at the Faculty of Management and Economics of the Gdańsk University of Technology. Currently Dean of the Faculty. Scientific interests focus on issues related to the macroeconomic policy of the state. In particular, the problems of the situation on the labour market, demographic changes,...
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MESOSCALE FUNCTIONS OF GPS SLANT DELAY
PublicationThe paper presents a computer module for GPS slant delay determination using data from COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) mesoscale non-hydrostatic model of the atmosphere which is run on IA64 Feniks computer cluster in the Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy of the Military University of Technology. The slant delay is the result of integrating the ray (eikonal) equation for the spatial function...
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Analiza bibliometryczna w badaniach dotyczących prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce
PublicationCelem opracowania jest ukazanie obrazu piśmiennictwa poświęconego zagadnieniom prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. Jako metodę badawczą zastosowano analizę bibliometryczną. Do analizy wykorzystano bazę Google Scholar oraz narzędzie Publish or Perish 7. Okresem badań objęto lata 1995– 2019. Jako frazy do wyszukiwania publikacji zastosowano: „prognozowanie upadłości”, „prognozowanie zagrożenia finansowego”, „systemy...
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Occurrence of Cyanobacteria in the Gulf of Gdańsk (2008–2009)
PublicationBlooms of cyanobacteria develop each summer in the Baltic Sea. Collecting complete data on this phenomenon is helpful in understanding the changes taking place in the Baltic Sea and forecasting the occurrence of these phenomena in the future. This dataset includes unpublished information about the occurrence of cyanobacteria in the Gulf of Gdańsk (Southern Baltic) in 2008 and 2009. The presented data combines basic physic-ochemical...
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Analiza zmiennych objaśniających i rozbudowa modelu wyboru środka transportu
PublicationW artykule poddano analizie potrzebę uwzględnienia dodatkowych czynników wpływających na wybór środka transportu w prognozowaniu podróży. Przedstawiono dotychczasowe badania wpływu wybranych czynników na podział zadań przewozowych. W oparciu o wyniki krajowych Kompleksowych Badań Ruchu zostały wykonane analizy zależności udziału podróży transportem zbiorowym w obszarach zurbanizowanych od wybranych czynników zewnętrznych.
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Wykorzystanie sztucznych sieci neuronowych do szacowania wpływu drgań na budynki jednorodzinne
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono metodę prognozowania wpływu drgań na budynki mieszkalne z wykorzystaniem sztucznych sieci neuronowych. Drgania komunikacyjne mogą doprowadzić do uszkodzenia elementów konstrukcyjnych, a nawet do awarii budynku. Najczęstszym efektem są jednak rysy, pękanie tynku i wypraw. Metody oparte na sztucznej inteligencji są przybliżone, ale stanowią wystarczająco dokładną i ekonomiczną alternatywę dla tradycyjnych...
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Towards Improving Optimised Ship Weather Routing
PublicationThe aim of the paper is to outline a project focusing on the development of a new type of ship weather routing solution with improved uncertainty handling, through better estimation of ship performance and responses to sea conditions. Ensemble forecasting is considered to take into account the uncertainty levels that are typical of operations in a stochastic environment. Increased accuracy of weather prediction is achieved through...
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Personal bankruptcy prediction using machine learning techniques
PublicationIt has become crucial to have an early prediction model that provides accurate assurance for users about the financial situation of consumers. Recent studies have focused on predicting corporate bankruptcies and credit defaults, not personal bankruptcies. Due to this situation, the present study fills the literature gap by comparing different machine learning algorithms to predict personal bankruptcy. The main objective of the...
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Framework for extracting rails and setting-out railway line axis based on UAV photogrammetric measurements
PublicationTechnical diagnostics enables assessing the current technical condition of a railway line and adjacent infrastructure, and forecasting its changes over a specific time horizon. One of its elements is the periodic monitoring of rail position and their geometry. This article presents a new framework for the setting-out of a railway track axis. The process presented in the manuscript is based on the specific filtration and extraction...
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Modeling process of planning finished product sales volumes at industrial enterprises in modern economic conditions
PublicationThis article presents improving the existing system of planning finished products sales volumes. The influencing factors of the sales volumes in modern economic conditions have been determined: falling world oil prices, the reduction of pipe consumption in the domestic market, the global pandemic. The algorithm of planning finished products sales volumes has been constructed. Calculations based on the Holt forecasting method has...
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Neuroeconomy and Neuromarketing: The Study of the Consumer Behaviour in the COVID-19 Context
PublicationTo address the study of consumer behavior in the post-COVID-19 era, the present Research Topic brings together a set of papers that attempt to study how different factors triggered by the pandemic have achieved a significant effect on consumers' behavioral intentions. These papers examine different subtopics related to food, health products, collaborative economy and, of course, neuroscience. Globally, the objectives of this special...
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Application of fracture mechanics for energetic effects predictions while wood sawing
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Cutting forces may be employed to determine not only toughness...
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Estimation of fracture toughness and shear yield stress of orthotropic materials in cutting with rotating tools
PublicationThe cutting force is an energetic effect of splitting material, and might be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Forecasting of the shear plane angle in cutting broaden possibilities for modelling of the cutting process even for thin uncut chips. Such mathematical model has been developed here for description of the orthotropic materials’ cutting on the base of fracture theory, and includes work of separation...
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Karol Flisikowski dr inż.
PeopleKarol Flisikowski works as Associate Professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology. He is responsible for teaching descriptive and mathematical statistics (in Polish and English), as well as scientific research in the field of social statistics. He has been a participant in many national and international conferences, where he has presented the results...
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Idea zastosowania sztucznej inteligencji w prognozowaniu wpływu drgań komunikacyjnych na odpowiedź dynamiczną budynków mieszkalnych
PublicationW poniższym artykule autorzy analizują wpływ drgań komunikacyjnych na budynki mieszkalne oraz metodykę pomiarową według PN-85 B-02170 [1]. Problemem badawczym jest opracowanie prostej metody prognozowania wpływu drgań na budynki mieszkalne w taki sposób, aby nie było konieczne przeprowadzanie pracochłonnych i kosztownych pomiarów polowych. W tym celu wykonano analizę przy użyciu algorytmów opartych na sztucznej inteligencji oraz...
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SAWING PROCESS AS A NEW ALTERNATIVE WAY OF DETERMINING SOME WOOD PROPERTIES
PublicationCutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. The developed cutting model, derived from fracture mechanics, includes work of separation (fracture toughness) in addition to plasticity and friction, and also dullness of the cutting edge described by the cutting edge radius. Moreover, forecasting of the shear plane angle for the cutting models, broaden possibilities of energetic effects...
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Predicting cutting power for band sawing process of pine and beech wood dried with the use of four different methods
PublicationWood drying is an important stage in the woodworking process. After drying, wood is subject to a re-sawing process, for which a high quality surface, low material loss, and high efficiency are often required. In this paper, forecasted values were presented of cutting power for the re-sawing process of pine and beech wood that were dried with four different methods. Forecasting of cutting power for an industrial band saw machine...
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Application of Fracture Mechanics for Energetic Effects Predictions While Wood Sawing
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (or power - more interesting from energetic point of view) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Cutting...
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Łukasz Sienkiewicz dr hab.
PeopleGraduate of the Warsaw School of Economics, habilitated doctor in the field of social sciences in the discipline of management and quality science. University Associate professor at the Department of Entrepreneurship of the Faculty of Management and Economics of the Gdańsk University of Technology and coordinator of the Center for Economic, Social and Technological Transformation (C-TEST). Chairman of the Board of the Institute...
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AN ALTERNATIVE WAY OF DETERMINING MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF WOOD BY MEASURING CUTTING FORCES
PublicationThe cutting force is an energetic effect of splitting material, and might be therefore considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. The dedicated mathematical model developed for description of the wood cutting has been developed here on the base of fracture theory, and includes work of separation (fracture toughness) in addition to the material plasticity and friction. The effect of the cutting edge dullness is...
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A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy prediction models based on financial ratios: Evidence from Colombia, 2008 to 2015
PublicationLogit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness...
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Creating Polish space language dictionary - lessons learned
PublicationPolish space industry suffers from lack of space vocabulary. Since joining European Space Agency in 2012, the sector has expanded rapidly now employing over 1000 specialists focusing mainly on space sustainability, space debris detection and tracking, robotics and propulsion systems. The Polish Space Agency together with The Polish Committee for Standardization have committed to creating the first lexicon of space language, along...
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Predicting Ice Phenomena in a River Using the Artificial Neural Network and Extreme Gradient Boosting
PublicationForecasting ice phenomena in river systems is of great importance because these phenomena are a fundamental part of the hydrological regime. Due to the stochasticity of ice phenomena, their prediction is a difficult process, especially when data sets are sparse or incomplete. In this study, two machine learning models—Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—were developed to predict...
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Is Artificial Intelligence Ready to Assess an Enterprise’s Financial Security?
PublicationThis study contributes to the literature on financial security by highlighting the relevance of the perceptions and resulting professional judgment of stakeholders. Assessing a company’s financial security using only economic indicators—as suggested in the existing literature—would be inaccurate when undertaking a comprehensive study of financial security. Specifically, indices and indicators based on financial or managerial reporting...
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AI-Driven Sustainability in Agriculture and Farming
PublicationIn this chapter, we discuss the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in promoting sustainable agriculture and farming. Three main themes run through the chapter. First, we review the state of the art of smart farming and explore the transformative impact of AI on modern agricultural practices, focusing on its contribution to sustainability. With this in mind, our analysis focuses on topics such as data collection and storage, AI...
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A unified approach to the analysis of electric energy and fuel consumption of cars in city traffic
PublicationForecasting fuel and electricity consumption is an important factor determining the direction of changes in road engineering solutions, traffic management, selection of routes for public transport and development more efficient car drive systems. With a reliable and easy-to-use computational tool, it is possible to reduce the consumption of primary energy sources and reduce the emission of toxic compounds in cities. An analysis...
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Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors: Poland’s Case
PublicationThe study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank's base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in...
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Detection of Anomalies in the Operation of a Road Lighting System Based on Data from Smart Electricity Meters
PublicationSmart meters in road lighting systems create new opportunities for automatic diagnostics of undesirable phenomena such as lamp failures, schedule deviations, or energy theft from the power grid. Such a solution fits into the smart cities concept, where an adaptive lighting system creates new challenges with respect to the monitoring function. This article presents research results indicating the practical feasibility of real‐time...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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The Dilemmas of Choosing a Suitable Technology for Low Energy and Passive Houses in the Context of their Overheating Issues
PublicationIn compliance with European Union directives, numerous countries are introducing increasingly stricter legal limits on the estimated energy consumption of newly designed residential buildings. However, the fact, that regulations and designers' efforts are focused on decreasing energy consumption (and consequently carbon dioxide emissions) only at the post-occupancy stage, may lead to a significant increase in the carbon footprint...