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Search results for: forecast
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublicationThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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A survey on network resiliency methodologies against weather-based disruptions
PublicationDue to the increasing dependence on network services of our society, research has recently been concentrating on enhancing traditional protection strategies to withstand large-scale failures, as in case of disaster events. The recently-formed EU-funded RECODIS project aims at coordinating and fostering research collaboration in Europe on disaster resiliency in communication networks. In particular, the Working Group (WG) 2 of the...
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Machine-Learning Methods for Estimating Performance of Structural Concrete Members Reinforced with Fiber-Reinforced Polymers
PublicationIn recent years, fiber-reinforced polymers (FRP) in reinforced concrete (RC) members have gained significant attention due to their exceptional properties, including lightweight construction, high specific strength, and stiffness. These attributes have found application in structures, infrastructures, wind power equipment, and various advanced civil products. However, the production process and the extensive testing required for...
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The Possibility of Phase Change Materials (PCM) Usage to Increase Efficiency of the Photovoltaic Modules
PublicationSolar energy is widely available, free and inexhaustible. Furthermore this source of energy is the most friendly to the environment. For direct conversion of solar energy into useful forms like of electricity and thermal energy, respectively photovoltaic cells and solar collectors are being used. Forecast indicate that the first one solution will soon have a significant part in meeting the global energy demand. Therefore it is...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Ruchotwórczość wielkopowierzchniowych obiektów handlowych trzeciej generacji na przykładzie Trójmiasta
PublicationWielkopowierzchniowe obiekty (handlowe, usługowe itp.) generują ruch o dużych natężeniach, które często przekraczają możliwości przepustowe przyległego układu ulicznego. Wpływają w ten sposób na znaczne pogorszenie się warunków ruchu w najbliższym otoczeniu obiektu i zakłócenia w prawidłowym funkcjonowaniu systemu transportowego miasta. Wobec braku polskich doświadczeń konieczne jest badanie wpływu wybranych czynników demograficznych,...
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Novel Complementary Multiple Concentric Split Ring Resonator for Reliable Characterization of Dielectric Substrates with High Sensitivity
PublicationAccurate characterization of dielectric substrates with high sensitivity remains an important challenge in a variety of industrial applications. This paper proposes an innovative strategy to address this challenge by developing and optimizing a unique Complementary Multiple Concentric Split Ring Resonator (CMC-SRR). The major goal is to propose a sensor design with increased sensitivity and reliability for dielectric characterization....
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CURRENT SITUATION ON THE POLAND REAL ESTATE MARKET
PublicationIn recent years the polish real estate market has been characterised by a significant increase in supply and demand. This was facilitated by a number of macroeconomic factors. In recent years, housing has been commissioned as 30 years ago. Therefore, the depth analysis issue of the causes and consequences for the Polish economy of these trends is now relevant. Among the reasons are significant economic growth, low interest rates...
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Optimization issues in distributed computing systems design
PublicationIn recent years, we observe a growing interest focused on distributed computing systems. Both industry and academia require increasing computational power to process and analyze large amount of data, including significant areas like analysis of medical data, earthquake, or weather forecast. Since distributed computing systems – similar to computer networks – are vulnerable to failures, survivability mechanisms are indispensable...
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When all we have is not enough: a search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations
PublicationAlthough inflation expectations are pivotal variables for central banks, they are not directly observable. Therefore, central banks use qualitative survey results to proxy consumer expectations, and their quantification in this manner is often criticized. In this study, we investigate and identify an optimal quantification procedure for survey results based on a set of regression and probabilistic models. Specifically, we seek...
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Analiza możliwości wzrostu udziału transportu zbiorowego w wojewódzkich przewozach pasażerskich na przykładzie województwa pomorskiego
PublicationPodział zadań przewozowych pomiędzy dostępne środki transportu jest jednym z kluczowych wyzwań przy opracowaniu Planów Transportowych w regionach. Stan aktualny i prognozy prowadzone na obszarze Unii Europejskiej wskazują, że w najbliższych latach dominującym środkiem transportu pasażerskiego będzie samochód osobowy z zarysowującą się tendencją wzrostową. Dlatego bardzo istotnym działaniem przy budowie zintegrowanego systemu transportu...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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Improving the prediction of biochar production from various biomass sources through the implementation of eXplainable machine learning approaches
PublicationExamining the game-changing possibilities of explainable machine learning techniques, this study explores the fast-growing area of biochar production prediction. The paper demonstrates how recent advances in sensitivity analysis methodology, optimization of training hyperparameters, and state-of-the-art ensemble techniques have greatly simplified and enhanced the forecasting of biochar output and composition from various biomass...
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Geographic Information System for Flood Hazard Analysis and Early Warning Using Numerical Weather Predictions
PublicationFloods are a phenomenon which causes significant losses of lives as well as property damage, which in turn severely impact the local economy. The nature of a flooding has been well researched, and several methods of flood hazard simulation have been established over the last decades. The current legislation in the European Union requires the Member States to create, maintain and update flood risk and hazard maps, as well as identify...
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Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Insulation Properties of Lightweight Concrete
PublicationPredicting the properties of concrete before its design and application process allows for refining and optimizing its composition. However, the properties of lightweight concrete are much harder to predict than those of normal weight concrete, especially if the forecast concerns the insulating properties of concrete with artificial lightweight aggregate (LWA). It is possible to use porous aggregates and precisely modify the composition...
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Rural Building in Opole Silesia During the Period of the Frederician Colonization
PublicationThe aim of the article is to present the rural construction in the Opole countryside (Poland) during the “Frederician colonization”. Showing socio-economic areas of Opole villages, differing from each other, the differences of which resulted from the environmental conditions influencing the processes of enfranchisement and industrialization. These processes at the turn of the 17th and 19th centuries influenced the image of the...
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Relationship between GIX, SIDX, and ROTI ionospheric indices and GNSS precise positioning results under geomagnetic storms
PublicationIonospheric indices give information about ionospheric perturbations, which may cause absorption, diffraction, refraction, and scattering of radio signals, including those from global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). Therefore, there may be a relationship between index values and GNSS positioning results. A thorough understanding of ionospheric indices and their relationship to positioning results can help monitor and forecast...
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Intensification of catechin extraction from the bark of Syzygium cumini using ultrasonication: Optimization, characterization, degradation analysis and kinetic studies
PublicationCatechin is a prominent polyphenolic component that possesses various medicinal properties. Present work communicates the intensification and optimization of catechin extraction from the bark of Syzygium cumini tree using stirred reactor, soxhlet, ultrasonic bath, and ultrasonic horn technique. The optimization of several parameters such as type of solvent, solid to solvent ratio (1:100 w/v), speed of agitation (300 RPM), extraction...
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Fatigue of titanium alloy Ti6Al4V with diamond structure obtained by Laser Power Bed Fusion method
PublicationThis paper presents the results of fatigue tests conducted on Ti6Al4V titanium alloy with diamond structure obtained by the Laser Power Bed Fusion method. Samples used in tests were printed with porosities: 81%, 73%, 50%, 34% and near-zero porosity. Samples were subjected to cyclic tests with a constant stress amplitude. The number of cycles until sample failure was registered. Obtained fatigue test results made it possible to...
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EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVENESS OF WATERJET PROPULSOR FOR A SMALL UNDERWATER VEHICLE
PublicationT he goal of the project described is to replace the existing propulsion system of a small underwater vehicle with a solution less prone to mechanical damage and ensuring a lower risk of the entanglement of fibrous objects suspended in the body of water. Four typical marine screws are utilised in the current design of the vehicle. One possible solution of the problem is the application of waterjet propulsors located...
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A Proposed Soft Computing Model for Ultimate Strength Estimation of FRP-Confined Concrete Cylinders
PublicationIn this paper, the feed-forward backpropagation neural network (FFBPNN) is used to propose a new formulation for predicting the compressive strength of fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP)-confined concrete cylinders. A set of experimental data has been considered in the analysis. The data include information about the dimensions of the concrete cylinders (diameter, length) and the total thickness of FRP layers, unconfined ultimate concrete...
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Exergy and Energy Analyses of Microwave Dryer for Cantaloupe Slice and Prediction of Thermodynamic Parameters Using ANN and ANFIS Algorithms
PublicationThe study targeted towards drying of cantaloupe slices with various thicknesses in a microwave dryer. The experiments were carried out at three microwave powers of 180, 360, and 540 W and three thicknesses of 2, 4, and 6 mm for cantaloupe drying, and the weight variations were determined. Artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were exploited to investigate energy and exergy indices of...
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Analysis of electricity generation variability in 2019 with special consideration of electrical energy generation from wind sources.
PublicationThis article presents issues related to the broadly understood development of wind energy. The state of the art of wind energy in the world has been discussed. This paper also shows issues related to factors affecting the development of renewable energy sources and their impact on the natural environment on the basis of available research. The focus is, however, on the critical analysis of phenomena in the data of the Transmission...
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Spatiotemporal Assessment of Satellite Image Time Series for Land Cover Classification Using Deep Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Reunion Island, France
PublicationCurrent Earth observation systems generate massive amounts of satellite image time series to keep track of geographical areas over time to monitor and identify environmental and climate change. Efficiently analyzing such data remains an unresolved issue in remote sensing. In classifying land cover, utilizing SITS rather than one image might benefit differentiating across classes because of their varied temporal patterns. The aim...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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On Memory-Based Precise Calibration of Cost-Efficient NO2 Sensor Using Artificial Intelligence and Global Response Correction
PublicationNitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a prevalent air pollutant, particularly abundant in densely populated urban regions. Given its harmful impact on health and the environment, precise real-time monitoring of NO2 concentration is crucial, particularly for devising and executing risk mitigation strategies. However, achieving precise measurements of NO2 is challenging due to the need for expensive and cumbersome equipment. This has spurred...
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Displacement piles - classification and methods for the calculation of bearing capacity.
PublicationDisplacement piles belong to a group of technologies whose main idea is to install or make a pile without extracting ground material. According to definition, contained in PN-EN:1997-1:2008, displacement piles should be considered as driven, pressed in using vibrators and made with the use of spread augers. The classification of piles used so far with regard to the technology of execution is modified. An additional element is the...
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Karol Flisikowski dr inż.
PeopleKarol Flisikowski works as Associate Professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology. He is responsible for teaching descriptive and mathematical statistics (in Polish and English), as well as scientific research in the field of social statistics. He has been a participant in many national and international conferences, where he has presented the results...
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Data-driven Models for Predicting Compressive Strength of 3D-printed Fiber-Reinforced Concrete using Interpretable Machine Learning Algorithms
Publication3D printing technology is growing swiftly in the construction sector due to its numerous benefits, such as intricate designs, quicker construction, waste reduction, environmental friendliness, cost savings, and enhanced safety. Nevertheless, optimizing the concrete mix for 3D printing is a challenging task due to the numerous factors involved, requiring extensive experimentation. Therefore, this study used three machine learning...
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A Novel Method for the Deblurring of Photogrammetric Images Using Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks
PublicationThe visual data acquisition from small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) may encounter a situation in which blur appears on the images. Image blurring caused by camera motion during exposure significantly impacts the images interpretation quality and consequently the quality of photogrammetric products. On blurred images, it is difficult to visually locate ground control points, and the number of identified feature points decreases...
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Trzej prorocy: Sołżenicyn, Friedman, Dugin. Część pierwsza: Sołżenicyn
PublicationArtykuł przedstawia na tle biograficznym dzieło i myśl profetyczną Aleksandra Sołżenicyna. Podstawą jej analizy jest mowa z okazji przyznania autorowi Oddziału chorych na raka literackiej Nagrody Nobla oraz jego wykład na temat stanu cywilizacji Zachodu wygłoszony na Uniwersytecie Harvarda – zatytułowany Zmierzch odwagi. Proroctwa Sołżenicyna dotyczące Zachodu pokazane są w kontekście jego pracy Jak odbudować Rosję? W artykule...
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Polish Polar Research: Green-and-White Paper under the aegis of the Polish Polar Consortium (PPC)
PublicationPolar research is a colloquial term for cross-area, cross-domain and interdisciplinary research in the Arctic and Antarctic. Polar research is mainly the domain of natural sciences, but technical sciences and humanities also grow in importance. Being vulnerable to climate change, polar regions are commonly considered as a kind of litmus paper of changes in geosystems, hence the importance of research done there. It aims at a better...
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Modelowanie systemów energetycznych wytwarzania energii elektrycznej i ciepła do celów planowania rozwoju - wybrane zagadnienia
PublicationSystemy energetyczne wymagają przemian technologicznych w kierunku neutralności klimatycznej. W Polsce, w której systemie elektroenergetycznym i systemach ciepłowniczych dominują przestarzałe elektrownie i ciepłownie węglowe, dążenie do minimalizacji wpływu na środowisko wiąże się z wysokimi kosztami. Dlatego należy szukać optymalnych ścieżek roz-woju energetyki, aby osiągnąć ambitne długoterminowe cele strategiczne, przy minimalizacji...
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Long-term hindcast simulation of sea ice in the Baltic Sea
Open Research DataThe data set contains the results of numerical modeling of sea ice over a period of 50 years (1958-2007) in the Baltic Sea. A long-term hindcast simulation was performed using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model PM3D (Kowalewski and Kowalewska-Kalkowska, 2017), a new version of the M3D model (Kowalewski, 1997). A numerical dynamic-thermodynamic model...
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Safety PL - a support tool for Road Safety Impact Assessment
PublicationPublished on 19 November 2008, the European Union's Directive 2008/96/EC is one of the most important EU documents setting out a road safety orientation, in particular, road infrastructure safety management. It identifies four main areas of activity: road safety impact assessment, road safety audit, ranking of high accident concentration sections and network safety ranking and road infrastructure safety inspection. The Directive...
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Long-term hindcast simulation of sea level in the Baltic Sea
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of numerical modelling of sea level fluctuations over a period of 50 years (1958-2007) in the Baltic Sea. A long-term hindcast simulation was performed using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model PM3D (Kowalewski and Kowalewska-Kalkowska, 2017), a new version of the M3D model (Kowalewski, 1997). The hydrodynamic model...
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Agent-based social network as a simulation of a market behaviour
PublicationRecent years and the outbreak of world's economic crisis in 2008 proved the crucial importance of reliable analysis of market dynamics. However, werarely apply models of proper detail level (the global prosperity forecast of 2007 can be seen as a grim proof). The behaviour of individuals and companies is far from being ideal and rational. Many claims that the economic paradigm of rational expectations (coming from J. Muth and R....
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Long-term hindcast simulation of water temperature and salinity in the Baltic Sea
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of numerical modelling of water temperature and salinity over a period of 50 years (1958-2007) in the Baltic Sea. A long-term hindcast simulation was performed using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model PM3D (Kowalewski and Kowalewska-Kalkowska, 2017), a new version of the M3D model (Kowalewski, 1997). The hydrodynamic...
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Long-term hindcast simulation of currents in the Baltic Sea
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of numerical modelling of currents over a period of 50 years (1958-2007) in the Baltic Sea . A long-term hindcast simulation was performed using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model PM3D (Kowalewski and Kowalewska-Kalkowska, 2017), a new version of the M3D model (Kowalewski, 1997). The hydrodynamic model was coupled...
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Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and ERA5 data on pressure levels as initial conditions
Open Research DataThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 on pressure levels. Simulation was performed for two starting hours: at 00:00 and...
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Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and GDAS data as initial conditions
Open Research DataThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). Simulation was performed for two starting hours:...
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Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and ECMWF data as initial conditions
Open Research DataThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Simulation was performed...
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Simulation of the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017 using the WRF model and ERA5 data on model levels as initial conditions
Open Research DataThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 on model levels. Simulation was performed for two starting hours: at 00:00 and 12:00...