Wyszukiwarka
Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: RELIABILITY ESTIMATION, BAYESIAN INFERENCE, AUTONOMOUS SHIP, UNCERTAINTY.
-
On reliability assessment of ship machinery system in different autonomy degree; A Bayesian-based approach
PublikacjaAnalyzing the reliability of autonomous ships has recently attracted attention mainly due to epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) integrated with automatic operations in the maritime sector. The advent of new random failures with unrecognized failure patterns in autonomous ship operations requires a comprehensive reliability assessment specifically aiming at estimating the time in which the ship can be trusted to be left unattended....
-
A probabilistic-driven framework for enhanced corrosion estimation of ship structural components
PublikacjaThe work proposes a probabilistic-driven framework for enhanced corrosion estimation of ship structural components using Bayesian inference and limited measurement data. The new approach for modelling measurement uncertainty is proposed based on the results of previous corrosion tests that incorporate the non-uniform character of the corroded surface of structural components. The proposed framework's basic features are outlined,...
-
Advanced Bayesian study on inland navigational risk of remotely controlled autonomous ship
PublikacjaThe arise of autonomous ships has necessitated the development of new risk assessment techniques and methods. This study proposes a new framework for navigational risk assessment of remotely controlled Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). This framework establishes a set of risk influencing factors affecting safety of navigation of a remotely-controlled MASS. Next, model parameters are defined based on the risk factors, and...
-
Autonomous Ship Utility Model Parameter Estimation Utilising Extended Kalman Filter
PublikacjaIn this paper, a problem of autonomous ship utility model identification for control purposes is considered. In particular, the problem is formulated in terms of model parameter estimation (one-step-ahead prediction). This is a complex task due to lack of measurements of the parameter values, their time-variability and structural uncertainty introduced by the available models. In this work, authors consider and compare two utility...
-
Bayesian estimation of the parameters in safely and reliability models for the subjective priors.
PublikacjaRozważono problem estymacji nieznanych charakterystyk niezawodnościowych za pomocą nieparametrycznych metod Bayesowskich. W wielu przypadkach opinie ekspertów są jedynym źródłem danych apriorycznych w modelach Bayesowskich. Celem uzyskania subiektywnych prawdopodobieństw apriorycznych zastosowano pewne metody ekspertowe. W oparciu o proces Dirichleta, który jest kluczowym pojęciem w teorii Fergusona, zostały skonstruowane...
-
Marine autonomous surface ship - control system configuration
PublikacjaThis paper addresses the problem of marine autonomous surface ship (MASS) control. The contribution of the paper is the development of a control system configuration, done assuming fully autonomous MASS operation under distinct operational conditions. The overview of hardware and software selection is included.
-
Effect of adopted rules of inference and methods of defuzzification on the final result of the evaluation of reliability made using the fuzzy logic methods
PublikacjaThe object of interest is to solve the problem of risk management of marine systems. But the main trouble is a lack of numerous and sure data on the reliability of the components of such systems. The methods based on the fuzzy logic seem to be helpful here. The goal of the article is to check the effect of using different fuzzy inference rules and methods of defuzzification on the final result of reliability assessment. The three...
-
REDUNDANCY AS A WAY INCREASING RELIABILITY OF SHIP POWER PLANTS
PublikacjaOne of key ways of assuring a high level of reliability of a ship power plant is to design redundancy of its structural elements, for example redundancy of prime drivers, drivelines etc. This paper deals with issues related to the redundancy as a way increasing dependability of the ship power and propulsion systems. Especially, fundamental characteristics of dependability, major design strategies influencing the reliability, and...
-
Uncertainty estimation of loop impedance measurement determined by the vector method
PublikacjaThis article presents a detailed analysis of uncertainty estimation of loop impedance measurement determined by the vector method. The analysis includes the following estimates: resistance variance, voltage variance and time measurement variance. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the combined standard uncertainty of loop impedance by the vector method. The vector method allows to determine loop impedance based on...
-
Jakub Montewka prof. dr hab. inż.
OsobyJakub Montewka is an associate professor at Gdańsk University of Technology in Poland and visiting processor at Aalto University in Espoo, Finland and Wuhan University of Technology in China. Jakub is researching in the field of maritime traffic risk and safety. His primary interests lie in the risk assessment of maritime transportation, quantification of safety of maritime navigation, route optimization for ships in ice-covered...
-
Closer Look at the Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation under Distributional Shift
PublikacjaWhile recent computer vision algorithms achieve impressive performance on many benchmarks, they lack robustness - presented with an image from a different distribution, (e.g. weather or lighting conditions not considered during training), they may produce an erroneous prediction. Therefore, it is desired that such a model will be able to reliably predict its confidence measure. In this work, uncertainty estimation for the task...
-
High performance super-twisting sliding mode control for a maritime autonomous surface ship (MASS) using ADP-Based adaptive gains and time delay estimation
PublikacjaThis research addresses two kinds of problems related to optimal trajectory tracking of a Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship (MASS): those caused by the time-varying external disturbances including winds, waves and ocean currents as well as those resulting from inherent dynamical uncertainties. As the paper shows, an accurate and robust optimal controller can successfully deal with both issues. An improved Optimal Adaptive Super-Twisting...
-
High performance super-twisting sliding mode control for a maritime autonomous surface ship (MASS) using ADP-Based adaptive gains and time delay estimation
PublikacjaThis research addresses two kinds of problems related to optimal trajectory tracking of a Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship (MASS): those caused by the time-varying external disturbances including winds, waves and ocean currents as well as those resulting from inherent dynamical uncertainties. As the paper shows, an accurate and robust optimal controller can successfully deal with both issues. An improved Optimal Adaptive Super-Twisting...
-
THE POSSIBILITIES OF ESTIMATING THE RELIABILITY OF SHIP PIPELINES’ ELEMENTS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE PHENOMENA ACTING ON THEM
PublikacjaIn the article an approach to the problem of estimating reliability data based on physical models is proposed. The possibility of reliability assessment for selected elements of ship pipelines, based on the recognition of the destructive physical phenomena taking place in them, is discussed. To do this, an overview of these phenomena has been made. In addition, a preliminary review of existing measures of destruction of materials...
-
Structural Reliability Assessment Of Corroded Tanker Ship Based On Experimentally Estimated Ultimate Strength
PublikacjaThis work deals with the reliability assessment of a tanker ship hull structure subjected to a vertical bending moment and corrosion degradation. The progressive collapse and ultimate load carrying capacity are estimated based on experimentally tested scaled box-shaped-specimens. The translation of the strength estimate of the scaled specimen to the real tanker ship hull structure is performed based on the dimensional theory developing...
-
Estimation of Housing Demand with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)
PublikacjaIt has always been important to anticipate the demand for a product. To determine the demand for any product, the parameters such as the economic situation and the demands of the rival products are used generally. Especially in the housing sector, which is the locomotive sector for emerging countries, it is critical to anticipate housing demand and its relationship with economic variables. Because of that, economists, real estate...
-
Estimation of Housing Demand with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)
Publikacja -
Human Reliability at Ship Safety Consideration
Publikacja -
Estimation of the uncertainty of the AC/AC transducer output voltage
PublikacjaThe paper presents a methodology for estimating uncertainty of voltage transducers processing function, on the example of CYVS411D07 voltage transducers. The analysis was conducted using the method based on the GUM Guide propagation of uncertainty law and the determination of the coverage factor based on the effective number of degrees of freedom (t-Student distribution). The paper also presents example evaluation results of measured...
-
Analysis of reliability of redundant ship power plants
PublikacjaW referacie przedstawiono możliwości wykorzystania teorii procesów semimarkowskich do określania charakterystyk niezawodnościowych złożonych układów napędowych o zadanym stopniu redundancji. Na przykładzie wybranego układu zaproponowano model niezawodnościowy w formie procesu stochastycznego dyskretnego w stanach i ciągłego w czasie. W oparciu o rozkład graniczny procesu wskazano na praktyczne aspekty wykorzystania uzyskanych w...
-
Maximum A Posteriori Bayesian Estimation of Chromatographic Parameters by Limited Number of Experiments
Publikacja -
Uncertainty of Postmortem Time Estimation Based on Potassium Ion Determination in Vitreous Humor Using Potentiometric Ion-Selective Electrode and Microwave-Induced Plasma with Optical Emission Spectrometry Methods
PublikacjaThere is a need for a reliable and independent evaluation and confirmation of the post-mortem interval (PMI) based on objective factors other than only postmortem changes or temperature measurements. Estimating the PMI by examining the concentration of potassium ions in the vitreous humor (VH) has a tradition in forensic toxicology dating back to the mid-20th century. So far, the methods for determining the presence of potassium...
-
Ship weather routing featuring w-MOEA/D and uncertainty handling
Publikacja -
Ship weather routing featuring w-MOEA/D and uncertainty handling
PublikacjaThe paper presents a new version of evolutionary multi-objective weather routing (WR) for ships taking into account uncertainties of weather forecasts in route optimization. The method applies authors’ w-MOEA/D algorithm: MOEA/D framework incorporating Decision Maker’s (DM) preferences by means of w-dominance relation. Owing to this, DM preferences are taken into account throughout optimization, allowing the process to focus on...
-
Vector and Triangular Representations of Project Estimation Uncertainty: Effect of Gender on Usability
Publikacja -
Estimation of the uncertainty of the LEM CV 3-500 transducers processing function
PublikacjaThe paper presents the methodology for estimating uncertainty of a voltage transducer processing function based on the example of LEM CV 3-500 transducer. The analysis was performed using the method based on the GUM Guide propagation of uncertainty law and the Monte Carlo numerical method. The article also presents a comparative analysis of the results of a voltage measurement evaluation done using the Monte Carlo simulation method,...
-
Reliability estimation of underground horizontal fuel tank limit states
PublikacjaFuel tanks are designed with regard to standard loads and operating conditions. The investigations of the paper show the impact of such factors as tank corrosion and other means on the variation of stress fields and deformation of the underground horizontal tank shell. The introduction of probabilistic methods allows for structural reliability assessment. While the computational time of the entire tank FEM model is high, the preliminary...
-
Towards a Framework of Operational-Risk Assessment for a Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship
Publikacja -
The kinematic model of the novel autonomous underwater robot for ship hull cleaning
PublikacjaOmówiono zagadnienia związane ze sterowaniem autonomicznego robota podwodnego przeznaczonego do oczyszczania kadłuba statku z bioporostów. Dokonano przeglądu wybranych prac na temat systemów lokalizacji i algorytmów sterowania robotów podwodnych oraz przedstawiono projekt własny, w którym zawarto opis obiektu podwodnego przemieszczającego się po ustalonym torze. Dla określonych warunków roboczych zaproponowano koncepcję metody...
-
The conception of uncertainty analysis of reliability assessment of the MC type diesel engine lubricating oil system
PublikacjaOmówiono elementy składające się na niepewność oszacowania niezawodności instalacji oleju smarowego dla silników typu MC. Przedstawiono, posługując się przykładem obliczeniowym, koncepcję analizy niepewności oceny rozpatrywanej instalacji. Ponadto zaproponowano sposób interpretacji otrzymanego wyniku, obarczonego dużą niepewnością, przy użyciu liczb rozmytych.
-
The use of response surface methodology for reliability estimation of composite engineering structures
Publikacja -
The use of Response Surface Methodology for reliability estimation of composite engineering structures
PublikacjaStability loss is one of the key issues in the analysis of shells made of composite materials. This paper aims at finding the variation of the critical or limit value of the load resulting from geometric imperfections. An axially compressed 16-layer cylindrical panel model is considered. The imperfections of the panel are simulated as random fields. The parameters of these fields are used as the basic variables of the reliability...
-
Ocena niezawodności spawanych złączy różnoimiennych = Reliability estimation of the dissimilar welded joints
PublikacjaOceniano niezawodność różnoimiennych złączy spawanych stali 10H2M ze stałą węglową oraz stalą chromowo-niklową. Zaproponowano metodę oceny niezawodności złączy wykorzystującą wskaźniki maksymalnej twardości w złączu oraz plastyczności struktury.
-
NUMERICAL ESTIMATION OF HULL HYDRODYNAMIC DERIVATIVES IN SHIP MANOUVERING PREDICTION
PublikacjaOperating in crowded waterways pose a risk of accidents and disasters due to maneuvering limitations of the ship. In order to predict ship’s maneuvering characteristics at the design stage, model tests are often executed as the most accurate prediction tool. Two approaches can be distinguished here: free running model tests and numerical simulations based on planar motion model with the use of hydrodynamic derivatives obtained...
-
Numerical Estimation of Hull Hydrodynamic Derivatives in Ship Maneuvering Prediction
PublikacjaPrediction of the maneuvering characteristics of the ship at the design stage can be done by means of model tests, computational simulations or a combination of both. The model tests can be realized as direct simulation of the standard maneuvers with the free running model, which gives the most accurate results, but is also the least affordable as it requires very large tank or natural lake, as well as complex equipment of the...
-
Safety Qualification Process for an Autonomous Ship Prototype – a Goal-based Safety Case Approach
Publikacja -
Zdzisław Kowalczuk prof. dr hab. inż.
OsobyW 1978 ukończył studia w zakresie automatyki i informatyki na Wydziale Elektroniki Politechniki Gdańskiej, następnie rozpoczął pracę na macierzystej uczelni. W 1986 obronił pracę doktorską, w 1993 habilitował się na Politechnice Śląskiej na podstawie pracy Dyskretne modele w projektowaniu układów sterowania. W 1996 mianowany profesorem nadzwyczajnym, w 2003 otrzymał tytuł profesora nauk technicznych. W 2006 założył i od tego czasu...
-
The use of Response Surface Methodology for reliability estimation of aluminum silo subjected to wind load
PublikacjaAn axisymmetric aluminum silo model with a single, standardized geometric imperfection of its lateral surface is considered. The silo is wind – loaded only. The paper is focused on the critical, or limit value of wind pressure, both producing a loss of stability of the silo. This value is affected by vertical coordinate (position) of the imperfection and the angular relation between the imperfection and the wind direction. Reliability...
-
Assessment of operation of energy system of serial reliability structure on the example of ship main propulsion system
PublikacjaW artykule przedstawiono rozwinięcie znanej metody oceny działania systemu energetycznego, zastosowanej w odniesieniu do głównego układu napędowego statku. Według tej interpretacji działanie może być przedstawiane jako wielkość fizyczna. W tym aspekcie, na podstawie wybranego podsystemów funkcjonalnego statku, oceniono jej przydatność do opisu własności niezawodnościowych tego systemu. W analizie zastosowano teorię procesów Poissona,...
-
Conception of selecting reliability models for taking operating decisionsrelated to sea-going ship´s systems
PublikacjaPrzedstawiono możliwości podejmowania decyzji dotyczących sytuacji, gdy decydent dysponuje informacją aprioryczną o stanie technicznym urządzeń, na przykład uzyskaną z badań niezawodności urządzeń niezbędnych do wykonania zadania, wyrażoną w formie prawdopodobieństwa. Do opracowania modelu umożliwiającego podejmowanie takich decyzji eksploatacyjnych wykorzystano elementy bayesowskiej statystycznej teorii decyzji.
-
Framework of an Evolutionary Multi-Objective Optimisation Method for Planning a Safe Trajectory for a Marine Autonomous Surface Ship
PublikacjaThis paper represents the first stage of research into a multi-objective method of planning safe trajectories for marine autonomous surface ships (MASSs) involved in encounter situations. Our method applies an evolutionary multi-objective optimisation (EMO) approach to pursue three objectives: minimisation of the risk of collision, minimisation of fuel consumption due to collision avoidance manoeuvres, and minimisation of the extra...
-
Influence of redundancy and ship machinery crew manning on reliability of lubricating oil system for the MC-Type diesel engine
PublikacjaW referacie przedstawiono wyniki rozważań na temat wpływu zastosowania redundancji i prewencyjnych działań załogi na niezawodność instalacji oleju smarowego dla silników spalinowych, wysokoprężnych typu MC. Uwzględniono przy tym trzy poziomy wyszkolenia załogi: wysoki, przeciętny oraz niski.
-
Risk of grounding by a ship passing a fairway - simulation method of navigational risk estimation in emergency situations
Publikacja -
Towards realistic estimation of ship excessive motions in heavy weather. A case study of a containership in the Pacific Ocean
Publikacja -
Joanna Szłapczyńska dr hab. inż.
Osoby -
Soft-decision schemes for radar estimation of elevation at low grazing angles
PublikacjaIn modern radars, the problem of estimating elevation angle at low grazing angles is typically solved using superresolution techniques. These techniques often require one to provide an estimate of the number of waveforms impinging the array, which one can accomplish using model selection techniques. In this paper, we investigate the performance of an alternative approach, based on the Bayesian-like model averaging. The Bayesian...
-
Piotr Chrzan prof. dr hab. inż.
OsobyUrodził się w 1954 r. w Sopocie. Jest absolwentem Wydziału Elektroniki Politechniki Gdańskiej (1978). W 1980 r. podjął pracę na Wydziale Elektrycznym w zespole prof. Jerzego Jaczewskiego. W 1988 r. uzyskał stopień naukowy doktora nauk technicznych, habilitację w 1999 r., w zakresie elektrotechniki: energoelektroniki i automatyki napędu, a tytuł profesora w 2017 r. Był promotorem 6 obronionych prac doktorskich (w tym 3 z wyróżnieniem)....
-
Towards a method for detecting large roll motions suitable for oceangoing ships
PublikacjaThe concept of autonomous merchant ships is quite recent. The increasing interest in autonomous vessels is nowadays calling for smart technologies that are supposed to replace the human actions on board. This involves troublesome issues related to ship safety. In the future, decision-making processes that are conventionally performed by human beings on board ship will be moved ashore to the control centre and maybe even completely...
-
Towards Improving Optimised Ship Weather Routing
PublikacjaThe aim of the paper is to outline a project focusing on the development of a new type of ship weather routing solution with improved uncertainty handling, through better estimation of ship performance and responses to sea conditions. Ensemble forecasting is considered to take into account the uncertainty levels that are typical of operations in a stochastic environment. Increased accuracy of weather prediction is achieved through...
-
Wyrażanie niepewności za pomocą przedziałów
PublikacjaZ perspektywy dwóch różnych interpretacji prawdopodobieństwa - klasycznej (częstościowej) i subiektywnej (bayesowskiej) oraz propozycji nowego przewodnika ustalającego zasady obliczania i wyrażania niepewności pomiaru (GUM), porównano sposoby komunikowania niepewności za pomocą przedziałów: ufności, bayesowskiego, objęcia, rozszerzenia.