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Predicting bankruptcy with the use of macroeconomic variables
PublikacjaRegarding the current global financial crisis, the firms can expect the increased uncertainty of their existence. The relevant literature includes extensive studies on bankruptcy prediction. Studies show that the most popular method used for prediction of firms' failures are discriminant analyses (30,3% of all models), then logit and probit models (21,3%), which all three are parametric models. The nature, the structure of the...
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Prognozowanie upadłości firm przy wykorzystaniu miękkich technik obliczeniowych
PublikacjaArtykuł ten dotyczy prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W artykule tym porównano siedem różnych metod sztucznej inteligencji prognozowania zagrożeń firm upadłością. Jest to pierwsza próba weryfikacji skuteczności tak szerokiego wachlarza metod miękkich technik obliczeniowych w prognozowaniu upadłości firm w Polsce. Opracowane przez autora modele charakteryzują się wysoką skutecznością.
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Prognozowanie upadłości firm przy wykorzystaniu kursu dolara oraz logiki rozmytej
PublikacjaArtykuł ten dotyczy prognozowania upadłości spółek giełdowych w Polsce. Skupiono się w nim na rozważaniach nad możliwością wykorzystania, w procesie prognozowania upadłości, nie tylko wskaźników finansowych w modelu logiki rozmytej, ale również wybranych zmiennych makroekonomicznych Polski mających wpływ na sytuację finansową firm. W badaniach autor wykorzystał dane dotyczące 132 spółek akcyjnych notowanych na Warszawskiej Giełdzie...
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Skuteczne metody prognozowania upadłości firm
PublikacjaArtykuł ten dotyczy prognozowania upadłości spółek giełdowych w Polsce. W artykule tym porównano dwanaście różnych metod prognozowania zagrożeń firm upadłością. Jest to pierwsza próba weryfikacji skuteczności tak szerokiego wachlarza zarówno metod statystycznych, jak i metod miękkich technik obliczeniowych w prognozowaniu upadłości firm w Polsce. W badaniach autor wykorzystał dane dotyczące 185 spółek notowanych na Warszawskiej...
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The risk of corporate bankruptcy - the conceptual model
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of different types of risks influencing the corporate bankruptcy risk. The author has developed conceptual model that explains the causes and the trajectories of the collapse of enterprises. In the analyses such factors as demographic, financial, market, political and operational factors influencing the risk of failure were taken into account.
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The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios
PublikacjaThis paper is devoted to the issue of forecasting financial ratios. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology, i.e., fuzzy logic theory, and to evaluate its effectiveness. Fuzzy logic has been widely used in machinery, robotics and industrial engineering. This paper introduces the use of fuzzy logic for the financial analysis of enterprises. While many current...
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublikacjaThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublikacjaThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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Weryfikacja skuteczności metod statystycznych w prognozowaniu upadłości firm na próbie niezbilansowanej
PublikacjaW opracowaniu tym porównano 5 różnych metod statystycznych prognozowania zagrożenia firm upadłością. Jest to pierwsza próba weryfikacji skuteczności tak szerokiego wachlarza metod statystycznych prognozowania upadłości firm w Polsce na jednej, takiej samej próbie badawczej. Celem tych badań było wskazanie metody statystycznej charakteryzującej się najlepszymi właściwościami predykcyjnymi upadłości firm na rok, na dwa i na trzy...
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Multi-Criteria Early Warning System Against Enteprise Bankruptcy Risk
PublikacjaW artykule tym autor porównuje skuteczność opracowanego przez niego wielokryterialnego systemu wczesnego ostrzegania firm z tradycyjnym modelem analizy dyskryminacyjnej prognozowania upadłości. System wczesnego ostrzegania oparty został na metodzie logiki rozmytej. Badania te są jedną z pierwszych prób na świecie wykorzystania logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu zagrożenia bankructwem firm. Uzyskane wyniki świadczą o dużym potencjale...
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An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy
PublikacjaW artykule sprawdzono skuteczność pojedynczego modelu logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W badaniach wykorzystano wartości 14 wskaźników finansowych oraz ich dynamikę zmiany między pierwszym a drugim, drugim a trzecim oraz trzecim a czwartym rokiem objętymi analizą. We wnioskach omówiono różnicę w skutecznościach modelu uzyskanego na wartościach statycznych oraz dynamicznych wskaźników finansowych....
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SUPPORT FOR OLDER ADULTS DURING COVID19 PANDEMIC – HOW DID LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN THE POMERANIAN REGION RESPOND TO THE CHALLENGE?
PublikacjaThe COVID-19 pandemic, apart from health threats, has shown the problem of older adults’ social isolation and loneliness in aging societies that has been progressing for several decades. Older adults’ singularisation, loosening family relations, diminishing families’ caring potential, caused that during the lockdown, many older adults – without the neighbours’ or NGOs’ support or the activities undertaken by local authorities –...
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Local variability in snow concentrations of chlorinated persistent organic pollutants as a source of large uncertainty in interpreting spatial patterns at all scales
PublikacjaSingle point sampling, a widespread practice in snow studies in remote areas, due to logistical constraints, can present an unquantified error to the final study results. The low concentrations of studied chemicals, such as chlorinated persistent organic pollutants, contribute to the uncertainty. We conducted a field experiment in the Arctic to estimate the error stemming from differences in the composition of snow at short distances...
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Polityka ochrony i wykorzystania dziedzictwa kulturowego wsi pomorskiej
PublikacjaArtykuł opisuje politykę regionu w zakresie ochrony i zrównoważonego wykorzystania zróżnicowanego terytorialnie zasobu dziedzictwa kulturowego (materialnego i niematerialnego) wsi pomorskiej.
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Discussion of “Axisymmetric Simulations of Cone Penetration in Saturated Clay” by Diane M. Moug, Ross W. Boulanger, Jason T. DeJong, and Robert A. Jaeger
PublikacjaN/A
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Discussion of “Stress-Displacement Response of Sand–Geosynthetic Interfaces under Different Volume Change Boundary Conditions” by Aliyeh Afzali-Nejad, Ali Lashkari, and Alejandro Martinez
PublikacjaThe influence of normal stiffness of interface on the interpretation of shear box tests
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Some Aspects of Shear Behavior of Soft Soil–Concrete Interfaces and Its Consequences in Pile Shaft Friction Modeling
PublikacjaThis paper examines the stiffness degradation and interface failure load on soft soil–concrete interface. The friction behavior and its variability is investigated. The direct shear tests under constant normal load were used to establish parameters to hyperbolic interface model which provided a good approximation of the data from instrumented piles. Four instrumented piles were used to obtain reference soil–concrete interface behavior....
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Statistical evaluation of physical and index properties of Vistula Marshlands deltaic soft soils
PublikacjaThis paper provides statistical evaluation of physical and index parameters of the Vistula Marshlands deltaic soft soils using three datasets. Soft soils from the Vistula Marshlands are grouped into the four categories: (1) silty/sandy loams, (2) organic clays, (3) organic silts and (4) peats. Variability of basic and derivative physical properties as well as Atterberg's limits and plasticity index is studied. It is found that...
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Pore Water Pressure Development in Soft Soil due to Installation and Loading of Controlled Modulus Columns
PublikacjaExcess pore water pressure (EPWP) development and decay due to the installation and static loading tests of controlled modulus columns (CMC) in soft soil was measured with piezometers equipped with low air entry (LAE) filters and a piezocone (CPTU) equipped with a high air entry (HAE) filter. The HAE filter allows for detailed detection of EPWP in short time intervals during construction of CMC. The influence zone due to the installation...
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Workflow application for detection of unwanted events
PublikacjaZaprezentowano rozproszoną aplikację do wykrywania potencjalnie niebezpiecznych zdarzeń z wejściowych strumieni wideo. Rozpoznanie niepożądanych zdarzeń wywołuje alarmy i wysyła powiadomienia do odpowiednich służb, jak również powoduje zarejestrowanie filmu. Model aplikacji składa się z węzłów z kamerami, pobierajacych strumienie danych, przetwarzajacych dane, wysyłajacych powiadomienia i zapisujacych dane. Zaimplementowana aplikacja...
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LDFEM analysis of pore water pressure development in cohesive soil due to FDP auger drilling
PublikacjaThis paper presents the preliminary modelling of FDP auger drilling in soft soil with emphasis on excess pore water pressure (EPWP) development using CEL formulation and Abaqus software suit. The EPWP generation in single points is investigated and the results of a numerical analysis are compared with the field measurements. It is found that numerical model qualitatively reflects the field measurements. However,...
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Discussion on “Coupled effective stress analysis of insertion problems in geotechnics with the Particle Finite Element Method” by L. Monforte, M. Arroyo, J.M. Carbonell, and A. Gens
PublikacjaAddressed here is the Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM) modelling of undrained CPTu penetration with regard to a reference analytical solution based on the Spherical Cavity Expansion Method (SCEM). Also discussed is the choice of the soil model and its parameters. The effect of cone interface friction on CPTu simulation is analyzed in a series of penetration tests using Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and Updated Lagrangian...
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Large deformation modelling of CPT probing in soft soil—pore water pressure analysis
PublikacjaThis paper presents the results of finite element modelling with Updated Lagrangian formulation of the Cone Penetration Test in soft soil deposit located in Jazowa, Poland. The numerical calculations are carried out for homogenous, normally consolidated, organic soil layer. The Modified Cam Clay constitutive model for soft soil and Coulomb model for interface are used. The study compares the registered pore water pressure distributions...
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Surrogate-assisted EM-driven miniaturization of wideband microwave couplers by means of co-simulation low-fidelity models
PublikacjaThis article proposes a methodology for rapid design optimization of miniaturized wideband couplers. More specifically, a class of circuits is considered, in which conventional transmission lines are replaced by their abbreviated counterparts referred to as slow-wave compact cells. Our focus is on explicit reduction of the structure size as well as on reducing the CPU cost of the design process. For the sake of computational feasibility,...
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The Importance of Contextual Topology in the Process of Harmonization of the Spatial Databases on Example BDOT500
PublikacjaIn this work, we present two detailed problems of topological errors in spatial database. Both issues are inconsistencies in the database, i.e. interior topological relationships layers of buildings and the relationship between the buildings layer and the layer of plots. That inconsistency is related to the residual polygons that arise as a result of overlapping objects, or gaps between objects. The occurrence of this type of error...
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Large deformation finite element analysis of undrained pile installation
PublikacjaIn this paper, a numerical undrained analysis of pile jacking into the subsoil using Abaqus software suit has been presented. Two different approaches, including traditional Finite Element Method (FEM) and Arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian (ALE) formulation, were tested. In the first method, the soil was modelled as a two-phase medium and effective stress analysis was performed. In the second one (ALE), a single-phase medium was assumed...
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Numerical Modeling of Cone Penetration Test in Slightly Overconsolidated Clay with Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian Formulation
PublikacjaIn this paper the results of the cone penetration test (CPT) modeling with the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation provided by Abaqus software package have been presented. The study compares the cone resistance and sleeve friction obtained in numerical analysis with values measured in soundings performed in the uniform layer of clayey soil in the Koszalin area. The clay layer was found to be slightly overconsolidated...
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Influence of Installation Effects on Pile Bearing Capacity in Cohesive Soils – Large Deformation Analysis Via Finite Element Method
PublikacjaIn this paper, the whole process of pile construction and performance during loading is modelled via large deformation finite element methods such as Coupled Eulerian Lagrangian (CEL) and Updated Lagrangian (UL). Numerical study consists of installation process, consolidation phase and following pile static load test (SLT). The Poznań site is chosen as the reference location for the numerical analysis, where series of pile SLTs...
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Problem wspólnotowego kształtowania środowiska mieszkaniowego
PublikacjaCommunity based shaping of housing environmentA sustainable development of housing environment depends on socio-economical context. Interest towards locality in western countries has a completely different basis than in the post-communist ones. Social capital, which shows e.g. in trust, as well as ecological awareness are totally different. We do not belong to saturated societies. There is a distinct issue of community shaping...
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Organic carbon fluxes of a glacier surface: a case study of Foxfonna, a small Arctic glacier
PublikacjaArctic glaciers are rapidly responding to global warming by releasing organic carbon (OC) to downstream ecosystems. The glacier surface is arguably the most biologically active and biodiverse glacial habitat and therefore the site of important OC transformation and storage, although rates and magnitudes are poorly constrained. In this paper, we present measurements of OC fluxes associated with atmospheric deposition, ice melt,...
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Analiza techniczno-ekonomiczna współspalania różnych rodzajów paliw w bloku energetycznym dużej mocy
PublikacjaPrzeanalizowano możliwości współspalania różnych rodzajów paliw w bloku energetycznym elektrowni cieplnej dużej mocy. Rozważono blok wyposażony w kocioł fluidalny ze złożem cyrkulacyjnym, jak również kocioł opalany biomasą oraz zespół z turbozespołem gazowym. Rozpatrzono wpływ udziału biomasy w łącznej ilości zużywanego paliwa, a także wpływ zastosowania zespołu z turbiną gazową na wskaźniki techniczno-ekonomiczne bloku energetycznego....
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The impact of brand communication on brand equity through Facebook
PublikacjaPurpose The purpose of this study is to fill the gap in the discussion of the ways in which firm-created and user-generated social media brand communication impacts consumer-based brand equity metrics through Facebook. Design/methodology/approach We evaluated 302 data sets that were generated through a standardized online-survey to investigate the impact of firm-created and user-generated social media brand communication on brand...
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Social learning and knowledge flows in cluster initiatives, In: Sanz S.C., Blanco F.P., Urzelai B. (Eds). Human and Relational Resources (pp. 44-45). the 4th International Conference on Clusters and Industrial Districts CLUSTERING, University of Valencia, Spain, May 23–24 (ISBN: 978-84-09-11926-4).
PublikacjaPurpose – The purpose of the paper is to explore how learning manifests and knowledge flows in cluster initiatives (CIs) due to interactions undertaken by their members. The paper addresses the research question of how social learning occurs and knowledge flows in CIs. Design/methodology/approach – The qualitative study of four cluster initiatives helped to identify various symptoms of social learning and knowledge flows in...
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CONTEMPORARY ART AND CIVIC ENGAGEMENT
PublikacjaThe paper aims to explore the potential role of contemporary art as a catalyst for social transformation and civic engagement. The research focuses on the visual arts and their power to change social attitudes in contemporary society. On the basis of theoretical, transdisciplinary approaches and analysis of artwork the paper investigates emerging forms of art and how they address pressing social issues and concerns that would otherwise...
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Comparative Analysis of Carbon, Ecological, and Water Footprints of Polypropylene-Based Composites Filled with Cotton, Jute and Kenaf Fibers
PublikacjaComposites containing natural fibers are considered environmentally friendly materials which is related to the reduced use of fossil fuels and the emission of carbon dioxide compared to petroleum-based polymers. Nevertheless, a complete evaluation of their environmental impact requires a broader view. This paper presents a carbon, ecological, and water footprints assessment of polypropylene-based composites filled with cotton,...
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THE INFLUENCE OF INTERPERSONAL MOTIVATION ON POLISH CONSUMERS’ ONLINE BRAND-RELATED ACTIVITY
PublikacjaThe development of social media has a substantial impact on the surge of social engagement of Internet users. It is particularly prominent in the domain of content creation and content sharing. Such communication may contain various references to different products brands and companies. Internet users may refer to them explicitly or brands may be present in the background only. Therefore, it is pivotal for managers and researchers...
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Towards plant-mediated chemistry – Au nanoparticles obtained using aqueous extract of Rosa damascena and their biological activity in vitro
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Rural Landscape Planning for Sustainable Development. The Case of Poland
PublikacjaThis text results from theoretical study on the possibilities of rural landscape renovation in Poland. The introduction marks new spatial phenomena and the scope of their influence. It indicates social and cultural reasons of the changes, and states the need of their renewed interpretation. The second part of the article contains a description of the degrading cultural landscape of the country and presents its features. It then...
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Strategic aspects in spatial planning - theory and practice in largest cities of Poland
PublikacjaThe rate of changes and the growing uncertainty rise to the need for a strategic approach to development planning, which is active and flexible in relation to the changing reality. Strategic planning, occurring in companies, was adapted by the social-economic development planning of self-government units. However, there are difficulties in applying the strategic planning in the spatial planning and integration of the two forms...
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Stabilizing forces in trapezoidal sheeting used as a part of the bracing system
PublikacjaIn the analysis of bracing systems imperfections of the restrained elements should be considered. According to EC3 this effect can be calculated by means of the equivalent stabilizing force, which replaces (in simplified way) initial bow imperfection of the braced element. However, alternative suggestions of the equivalent stabilizing force calculations can be also found in the literature. In this paper segment of the pitched roof...
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Corrugated Sheeting as a Member of a Shear Panel Under Repeated Load—Experimental Test
PublikacjaIn stressed-skin design, the cladding stiffening effect on structures is taken into account. However, the “traditional” design is more usual, wherein this effect is neglected. Even if the diaphragm actions are not regarded, in particular cases such as big sheds (and others), the parasitic (unwanted) stressed-skin action may occur with the result of leakage or even failure. The structures of this kind have already been built. Thus,...
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Stabilizing forces in trapezoidal sheeting used as a part of the bracing system
PublikacjaIn the analysis of bracing systems imperfections of the restrained elements should be considered. According to EC3 this effect can be calculated by means of the equivalent stabilizing force, which replaces (in simplified way) initial bow imperfection of the braced element. However, alternative suggestions of the equivalent stabilizing force calculations can be also found in the literature. In this paper segment of the pitched roof...
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Stability of roof trusses stiffened by trapezoidal sheeting and purlins
PublikacjaIn the article linear buckling analysis of a set of steel trusses braced by purlins and trapezoidal sheeting are conducted. The buckling load factor due to the height of a corrugated sheeting profile is investigated in parametric studies. The minimal height of trapezoidal sheeting required for preventing the sheeting and chords of the trusses against the buckling is obtained. Two groups of models are considered: “axial” model as...
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Truss imperfections in the design of bar and diaphragm bracing systems
PublikacjaIn the article three variants of roof bracing were considered: bar bracing, diaphragm bracing and the combination of bar and diaphragm bracing. Different analytical and numerical ways of taking into account the imperfections of the truss girder were compared. The entire 3D model of the roof (shell and beam elements with the eccentricities taken into account) was analysed numerically. Selected stressed-skin aspects were considered....
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Electoral support for extreme right-wing parties: A sub-national analysis of western European elections
PublikacjaThis paper addresses two major limitations of cross-national research on electoral support for extreme right parties (ERPs) in western Europe: its almost exclusive focus on national-level data and its failure to examine the role of the social welfare state and social capital. We employ Tobit I estimations in an additive and interactive model and compute conditional coefficients and standard errors for several interactive variables....
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Online brand communities’ contribution to digital business models
PublikacjaAbstract Purpose – There is limited research examining social drivers and mediators of online brand community identification in the context of business models development. This study aims to identify them behind the social mechanisms and present essential factors which should be applied in business models to foster value co-creation. Design/methodology/approach – Data were collected from a convenience sample of 712 cases gathered among...
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The Third Sector in the Universities’ Third Mission
PublikacjaThe interactions between the today’s university and its environment, as part of the university’s social responsibility, have been subject to many scientific papers. Their authors typically focus on interdependencies between universities, the state and the market. What is lacking are publications related to the interactions between universities and third sector organisations, and more broadly – a civil society, that may play an...
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Opis węzła energetycznego w Harcerskim Ośrodku Morskim w Pucku
PublikacjaPrzedstawiono bliżej układ technologiczny nowoczesnego źródła ciepła w Harcerskim Ośrodku Morskim w Pucku. Źródło w podstawie oparte jest na pracy pomp grzejnych zasilanych wodą podziemną współpracujących z kolektorami słonecznymi. Uzupełniającym źródłem jest kocioł olejowy.
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Upadłość przedsiębiorstw a wykorzystanie sztucznej inteligencji
PublikacjaMonografia jest jedną z nielicznych publikacji, która ukazuje problematykę upadłości przedsiębiorstw zarówno z punktu widzenia prawa jak i ekonomii. Dodatkowo autorzy znaczną część tego opracowania poświęcili problematyce prognozowania zagrożenia przedsiębiorstw upadłością, ze szczególnym uwzględnienim takich metod jak sztuczne sieci neuronowe oraz liniowa wielowymiarowa analiza dyskryminacyjna.
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublikacjaResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...