Search results for: FORECAST
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An Innovative Approach to the Forecasting of Energetic Effects While Wood Sawing
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specifi c cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, the cutting forces (power) problem may be tackled with an innovative, up-to-date fundamental analysis of the mechanics of sawing based on modern fracture mechanics....
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Forecasting of currency exchange rates using artificial neural networks
PublicationW rozdziale tym autor przedstawił wyniki swoich badań nad wykorzystaniem sztucznych sieci neuronowych do prognozowania kursu walut (na przykładzie pary walutowej PLN-USD).Głównym celem badań było porównanie skuteczności przewidywania kursu złotówki w latach 1997 - 2005 przy pomocy różnych rodzajów sieci neuronowych.
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Upper Limb Bionic Orthoses: General Overview and Forecasting Changes
PublicationUsing robotics in modern medicine is slowly becoming a common practice. However, there are still important life science fields which are currently devoid of such advanced technology. A noteworthy example of a life sciences field which would benefit from process automation and advanced robotic technology is rehabilitation of the upper limb with the use of an orthosis. Here, we present the state-of-the-art and prospects for development...
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Application of MARKAL model to optimisation of electricity generation structure in Poland in the long-term time horizon. Part II. Model and forecasts assumptions
PublicationIn this paper, the next in a series of publications on the subject, assumptions are presented of a power system development model in terms of electricity generation technology infrastructure in Poland, in the long term perspective until 2060. The model is based on the mathematical structure of the MARKAL optimization package. Among other things developed are a forecast of the final demand for electricity and heat, the current...
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Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationResearch background: The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the current war in Ukraine have dramatically increased the risk of consumer bankruptcies worldwide. All three crises negatively impact the financial situation of households due to increased interest rates, inflation rates, volatile exchange rates, and other significant macroeconomic factors. Financial difficulties may arise when the...
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Hydrological Forecasting in the Oder Estuary using a Three- Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model
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The influence of electromagnetic pollution on living organisms – historical trends and forecasting changes
PublicationCurrent technologies have become a source of omnipresent electromagnetic pollution from generated electromagnetic fields and resulting electromagnetic radiation. In many cases this pollution is much stronger than any natural sources of electromagnetic fields or radiation. Wireless and radio communication, electric power transmission or devices in daily use such as smartphones, tablets and portable computers every day expose people...
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Artificial-Hand Technology—Current State of Knowledge in Designing and Forecasting Changes
PublicationThe subject of human-hand versatility has been intensively investigated for many years. Emerging robotic constructions change continuously in order to mimic natural mechanisms as accurately as possible. Such an attitude is motivated by the demand for humanoid robots with sophisticated end effectors and highly biomimic prostheses. This paper provides wide analysis of more than 80 devices that have been created over the last 40 years....
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Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting
PublicationThis paper examines ownership equity as a predictor of future business failure within the tourism and hospitality sectors. The main goals of this study were to examine which ratios are the most important for a tourism business failure forecasting model and how significant is the “total percentage of equity ownership by company directors” ratio compared with other ratios associated with the probability of bankruptcy. A stepwise...
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Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of statistical methods in forecasting the financial energy of households. The study’s objective is to create the innovative ratios that combine both financial and demographic information of households and implement them in the forecasting models. To conduct this objective, six forecasting models are developed using three different methods—discriminant analysis, logit analysis, and decision trees...
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The forecasted values of cutting power for sawing on band sawing machines for Polish Scots pine wood (Pinus sylvestris L.) in a function of its provenance.
PublicationIn this paper the predicted values of cutting power for band sawing machine (EB 1800, f. EWD), which is used in the Polish sawmills, were showed. The values of cutting power were forecasted for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) wood of five provenances from Poland. These values were determined using an innovative method of predicting the cutting power, which takes into account of elements of fracture mechanics. The resulting predictions...
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Application of time-series-cross-section data in case of sale forecasting in an enterprise
PublicationW artykule wskazano możliwości wykorzystania danych przestrzenno-czasowych do prognozowania sprzedaży w przedsiębiorstwie. Przedstawiono różne podejścia do prognozowania ekonometrycznego przy użyciu tego typu danych. Wyznaczono krótkookresowe prognozy sprzedaży benzyny bezołowiowej Pb95 w przekroju województw oraz dokonano oceny ich jakości przy użyciu mierników ex-post. Dwie najdokładniejsze metody prognozowania wykorzystano do...
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The application of neural networks in forecasting the influence of traffic-induced vibrations on residential buildings
PublicationTraffic-induced vibrations may cause the cracking of plaster, damage to structural elements and, in extreme cases, may even lead to the structural collapse of residential buildings. The aim of this article is to analyse the effectiveness of a method of forecasting the impact of vibrations on residential buildings using the concept of artificial intelligence. The article presents several alternative forecasting systems for which...
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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Forecasting of railway track tamping based on settlement of sleepers using fuzzy logic
PublicationThe sleepers in a railway track transfer vertical, transverse and longitudinal loads to the track ballast and subgrade. The sleepers allow for keeping the distance between the rails constant. The thickness of ballast should be between 16 and 35 cm depending on the design standard of the track, and it should be densified where the ballast supports the sleeper. The exploitation causes contamination of the ballast, crushing the material...
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A Proposed Machine Learning Model for Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Buildings
PublicationTraffic-induced vibrations may cause various damages to buildings located near the road, including cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real buildings are costly and laborious. Therefore the aim of the research is to propose the original numerical algorithm which allows us to predict, with high probability, the nega-tive dynamic impact of traffic-induced...
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Comparing the Effectiveness of ANNs and SVMs in Forecasting the Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Building
PublicationTraffic - induced vibrations may cause damage to structural elements and may even lead to structural collapse. The aim of the article is to compare the effectiveness of algorithms in forecasting the impact of vibrations on buildings using the Machine Learning (ML) methods. The paper presents two alternative approaches by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). Factors that may affect traffic-induced...
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CUTTING POWER FORECASTING WHILE WOOD SAWING: FRACTURE MECHANICS APPROACH AND AXELSSON’S MODEL COMPARISON
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Another way is to forecast cutting power consumption on...
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Reality of Politics. Estimates - Comments - Forecasts
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Interactive visualization of marine pollution monitoring and forecasting data via a Web-based GIS
PublicationArtykuł prezentuje zastosowanie sieciowego Systemu Informacji Geograficznej do monitoringu i prezentacji wyników modelowania plam ropy na morzu. Omawiany system wykorzystuje technologie ESRI ArcIMS (Arc Internet Map Server) oraz Open Source GeoServer z biblioteką klienta OpenLayers w celu wizualizacji i mapowania rozprzestrzeniania się wycieku ropy w dwóch wybranych obszarach Morza Egejskiego w Grecji. Przedstawiony GIS stanowi...
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Artificial Neural Network in Forecasting the Churn Phenomena Among Costumers of IT and Power Supply Services
PublicationThis paper presents an attempt to use an artificial neural network to investigate the churn phenomenon among the customers of a telecommunications operator. An attempt was made to create a data model based on the customer lifetime value (CLV) rather than on activity alone. A multilayered artificial neural network was used for the experiments. The results yielded a 99% successful identification rate for customers in no danger of...
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Selected Aspects of Biofuels Market and the Electromobility Development in Poland: Current Trends and Forecasting Changes
PublicationThis work presents basic information associated with markets of selected alternative fuels used in transport, such as methyl esters, conventional bioethanol and lignocellulosic bioethanol, and the market of electrical vehicles. Legal conditions, which stimulate development and regulate the mode of functioning of the liquid biofuel market until 2020 are discussed, based on provisions of EU directives. Data on biofuel production...
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Stormwater and snowmelt runoff storage control and flash flood hazard forecasting in the urbanized coastal basin.
PublicationCity of Gdańsk is located in a coastal region where changing climatic conditions increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Developing urbanization affects the hydrology of natural basins by simplification of the drainage system and reduction of infiltration and base flow. Consequently greater runoff rates flow into storm water collection systems, reservoirs and surrounding water bodies. Not only infrastructures of urban...
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Forecasting values of cutting power for the sawing process of impregnated pine wood on band sawing machine
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono prognozowane wartości mocy skrawania dla pilarki taśmowej (ST100R firmy STENNER), które są stosowane w polskich tartakach. Wartości mocy skrawania oszacowano dla drewna sosny zwyczajnej (Pinus sylvestris L.), które zostało poddane impregnacji. Dla porównania wyznaczono również wartości mocy skrawania dla drewna niezaimpregnowanego. Wartości te określono za pomocą innowacyjnej metody prognozowania sił skrawania,...
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Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublicationThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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The Effectiveness of Catching Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae: Noctuinae) (= Agrotinae) in Pheromone Traps and Light Traps, for Short-Term Forecasting
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The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublicationTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
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Forecasting energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission of Vietnam by prognostic models based on explainable machine learning and time series
PublicationThis study assessed the usefulness of algorithms in estimating energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Viet- nam, in which the training dataset was used to train the models linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and AdaBoost, allowing them to comprehend the patterns and relationships between population, GDP, and carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption. The results revealed that random forest, XGBoost, and AdaBoost...
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GeoSPAR Project. Validation and selection methods of geoinformation analysis using GIS for ranking and forecasting of terrorist threats and criminal events
PublicationThe paper presents the description of work activities which have already been done within the first two stages – WorkPackage 1 and WorkPackage 2 - of the GeoSPAR Project. In such a context the general conceptual design of the GIS system and associate web service was presented and analysed. In addition, the operational and technical requirements for the GeoSPAR system have been specified and discussed; with special emphasis on system...
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WRF forecasting data of severe weather event in Central Europe on 11 August 2017
Open Research DataThis dataset is related to the forecasting of weather conditions in Central Europe on 11 August 2017. During that day, the severe and devastating weather phenomenon (derecho) occurred in Poland. The simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with the initial and boundary conditions from the Global...
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Using Deep Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Energy Productivity Based on Comparison of Simulation and DNN Results for Central Poland—Swietokrzyskie Voivodeship
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Using Deep Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Energy Productivity Based on Comparison of Simulation and DNN Results for Central Poland – Swietokrzyskie Voivodeship
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Areas of Updraft Air Motion in an Idealised Weather Research and Forecasting Model Simulation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Response to Different Floe Size Distributions
PublicationPresented dataset is part of a numerical modelling study focusing on the analysis of the influence of sea ice floe size distribution (FSD) on the horizontal and vertical structure of convection in the atmosphere. The total area and spatial arrangement of the up-drafts indicates that the FSD affects the total moisture content and the values of area averaged turbulent fluxes in the model domain. In fact, while convective updrafts...
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Fire Weather Index data for Poland (March – September 2019) based on high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Open Research DataThis dataset contains forecasted FWI indices calculated for the period: March 1 - September 30, 2019, based on the meteorological fields derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) ver. 4.2.1. For each day FWI data with the forecast range equal 24 and 48 hour were stored in GeoTIFF files. In addition, soil moisture and temperature...
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The role of the European Union and democratisation process in post-communist Romania
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The European Union and Cultural, Economic and Political Development of Minority in Central and Eastern Europe
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Forecasting Poland`s road deaths. W: [CD-ROM]. Zbornik referatov. V. Medna- rodna Konferenca Globalna Varnost. V. International Conference Global Safe- ty. Portoroz, od 6. do 9 oktobra 2002, Slovenija. [B.m.]: ZVD, Slovene Road Safety Council**2002 [7 s. 5 rys. bibliogr. 8 poz.] Prognozowanie liczby zabitych w ruchu drogowym w Polsce.
PublicationW referacie przedstawiono sytuację w zakresie bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowegow Polsce oraz metodykę tworzenia długoterminowych prognoz rozwoju ryzyka w ruchu drogowym na przykładzie prognozy dla potrzeb Krajowego Programu Bez-pieczeństwa Ruchu drogowego GAMBIT 2000.
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Government in the metaverse: Requirements and suitability for providing digital public services
PublicationDigital government comprises all means to enable governments to interact with their constituents digitally. The metaverse provides a virtual reality environment where various activities can be carried out without physically visiting the places of interest, including the public authorities. Yet, how governments can use the metaverse is unknown. This paper aims to extend the understanding of the metaverse architecture requirements...
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SafeCity – a GIS-based tool profiled for supporting decision making in urban development and infrastructure protection
PublicationThis paper presents a system for analysis of municipal Critical Infrastructures, which offers integrated tools for target analysis, hazard scenario simulations and spatial analysis within a remotely accessible Web-based Geographic Information System. The system has been applied to research conducted in the city of Gdansk with the aid of blast attack, chemical leakage and flood hazard scenarios, as well as a spatial density algorithm,...
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An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy
PublicationW artykule sprawdzono skuteczność pojedynczego modelu logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W badaniach wykorzystano wartości 14 wskaźników finansowych oraz ich dynamikę zmiany między pierwszym a drugim, drugim a trzecim oraz trzecim a czwartym rokiem objętymi analizą. We wnioskach omówiono różnicę w skutecznościach modelu uzyskanego na wartościach statycznych oraz dynamicznych wskaźników finansowych....
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ICT technologies and financial innovations: The case of exchange traded funds in Brazil, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and the United States
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How digital technology affects working conditions in globally fragmented production chains: Evidence from Europe
PublicationThis paper uses a sample of over 9 million workers from 22 European countries to study the intertwined relationship between digital technology, cross-border production links and working conditions. We compare the social consequences of technological change exhibited by three types of innovation: computerisation (software), automation (robots) and artificial intelligence (AI). To fully quantify work-related wellbeing, we propose...
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Reshaping financial systems: The role of ICT in the diffusion of financial innovations – Recent evidence from European countries
PublicationExchange-traded funds (ETFs) are among the fastest-growing types of innovative financial products. The emergence and spread of these instruments have been facilitated by the digital revolution. Information and communication technology (ICT) is profoundly reshaping the global economic landscape, laying solid foundations for unrestricted and unbounded flows of information and knowledge, eliminating information asymmetries, and furthering...
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Tracing financial innovation diffusion and substitution trajectories. Recent evidence on exchange-traded funds in Japan and South Korea.
PublicationSince the rapid growth of the popularity of ETFs, the potential substitution between innovative financial products, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and traditional investment funds (open-end and closed-end funds) is recognized as one of the most-discussed issues in the financial industry. This is the first study to empirically verify and compare the diffusion and substitution of ETFs using monthly data on their assets in two selected...
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The potential of web awareness as a determinant of dually defined customer value
PublicationIn the conditions of increasing demand barrier, the enterprise’s basic capital is customers. From an enterprise point of view, this means the need to create a dual perceived and defined customer value which remains related to market value (income and development potential) and customer resource value (reference, information and cooperative potential). The progressing digitisation process transfers business processes, and thus relationships, into...
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Modeling process of planning finished product sales volumes at industrial enterprises in modern economic conditions
PublicationThis article presents improving the existing system of planning finished products sales volumes. The influencing factors of the sales volumes in modern economic conditions have been determined: falling world oil prices, the reduction of pipe consumption in the domestic market, the global pandemic. The algorithm of planning finished products sales volumes has been constructed. Calculations based on the Holt forecasting method has...
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Skuteczne prognozowanie krótkoterminowe mocy farm wiatrowych
PublicationPrognozowanie mocy wytwórczej konkretnej farmy wiatrowej (FW) w horyzoncie 24-godzinnymwymaga zarówno wiarygodnej prognozy wietrzności, jak i narzędzi wspomagających. Narzędzie to jest dedykowanym modelem mocy farmy. Model powinien uwzględniać nie tylko ogólne zasady przetwarzania energii wiatru na energię mechaniczną, ale także cechy szczególnekonkretnej farmy. Liczba czynników wpływających na moc farmy jest duża i dokładna prognozamocy,...
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Tomasz Korol dr hab. inż.
PeopleEducation Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2001) University of Applied Sciences Stralsund (1999) Degree / scientific title Habilitation – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2015) Ph.D. – Gdańsk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics (2004) Employment Gdańsk University of Technology - associate professor (since 2017); assistant professor...
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Consequences of russia’s military invasion of Ukraine for Polish-Ukrainian trade relations
PublicationAn accurate forecast of interstate trade volume allows for short-term and long-term planning, particularly deciding on state budget revenues, foreign exchange earnings, border arrangement, other infrastructure, migration and social policies. Hostilities are destructive so the russian military aggression against Ukraine in 2022 needs to be assessed in terms of its effects on key economic aspects of Polish-Ukrainian relations, as...