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FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN THE PROCESS OF THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSUMER RISK BANKRUPTCY IN CENTRAL EUROPE
PublicationThis paper focuses on the issue of forecasting the fluctuation of exchange rates as part of the early warning system against the risk of consumer bankruptcy. The author identified the main macroeconomic factors affecting the level of bankruptcies for households in Poland. The fluctuation of exchange rates, which directly affects the deterioration of the economic situation of borrowers who have opened credit accounts in a foreign...
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Preeclampsia Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods Trained on Synthetic Data
PublicationThis paper describes a research study that investigates the use of machine learning algorithms on synthetic data to classify the risk of developing preeclampsia by pregnant women. Synthetic datasets were generated based on parameter distributions from three real patient studies. Four models were compared: XGBoost, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, and Explainable Boosting Machines (EBM). The study found that the XGBoost...
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Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk
PublicationThe process of decision-making in public procurement of construction projects during the preparation and implementation phases ought to be supported by risk identification, assessment, and management. In risk assessment one has to take into account factors that lead to risk events (background info), as well as the information about the risk symptoms (monitoring info). Typically once the risks have been assessed a decision-maker...
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Flood risk assessment for office and services building Alchemia II at Al. Grunwaldzka 409 in Gdansk.
PublicationThe aim of the study is to assess the risk of flood from natural meteorological and hy-drological phenomena, for office and services building Alchemia II in Gdansk at Al. Grun-waldzka 409. The project includes the analysis of potential sources of floods in Gdansk re-garding the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Gdansk, the Vistula River basin and excessive rainfall and snowmelt waters being a significant element of hydrological processes...
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Head-on accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, type of accidents: head-on. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Night accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, time of accidents: Night. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Quantitative risk assessment of new ship designs in damage conditions
PublicationThe paper is devoted to safety of ships in damage conditions. The novel contribution of the paper is connected with a new Multi-Task ship (MT-ship) design at the preliminary stage of design. There are a few problems at the preliminary stage that should be considered. One problem is connected with if the quantitative risk-based method is a reliable and formal method for safety assessment of such the new design (MT-ship) in damage...
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Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis of Cinan Feizuo Flood Protection Area, Huaihe River Basin
PublicationThis study evaluated multiple aspects of flood risks and effects on the Cinan Feizuo flood protection area in the Huaihe River basin. Flooding remains a leading problem for infrastructure, especially in urban, residential areas of the region. Effective flood modeling for urbanized floodplains is challenging, but MIKE (ID-2D) is paramount for analyzing and quantifying the risk in the vulnerable region. The Saint-Venant equation...
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Assessment of the Relationship between the Shape of the Lateral Meniscus and the Risk of Extrusion Based on MRI Examination of the Knee Joint
PublicationBackground Meniscus extrusion is a serious and relatively frequent clinical problem. For this reason the role of different risk factors for this pathology is still the subject of debate. The goal of this study was to verify the results of previous theoretical work, based on the mathematical models, regarding a relationship between the cross-section shape of the meniscus and the risk of its extrusion. Materials and Methods Knee...
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Low-Cost Modeling of Microwave Components by Means of Two-Stage Inverse/Forward Surrogates and Domain Confinement
PublicationFull-wave electromagnetic (EM) analysis is one of the most important tools in the design of modern microwave components and systems. EM simulation permits reliable evaluation of circuits at the presence of cross-coupling effects or substrate anisotropy, as well as for accounting for interactions with the immediate environment. However, repetitive analyses required by EM-driven procedures, such as parametric optimization or statistical...
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Ryzyko statystyczne a ryzyko rzeczywistego pacjenta = Statistical risk and risk of the real patient
PublicationDzięki wieloletnim obserwacjom populacji ludzkiej udało się zidentyfikować czynniki ryzyka choroby wieńcowej. Najważniejsze z nich to: wiek, płeć, obciążenie genetyczne, palenie papierosów, stężenie cholesterolu we krwi, ciśnienie tętnicze, brak aktywności fizycznej, nadwaga, obecność cukrzycy. Obserwacje prospektywne populacji dostarczyły danych do opracowania modeli, które określają relacje między wartościami czynników ryzyka...
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Risk factors assessment and risk prediction models in lung cancer screening candidates
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Conditional Value-at-Risk Vs. Value-at-Risk to Multi-Objective Portfolio Optimization
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OCCUPATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE RISK SCORE METHOD DURING GEODETIC MEASUREMENTS
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Modeling the risk of ship grounding—a literature review from a risk management perspective
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Anna Rzeczycka dr hab.
PeopleAnna Rzeczycka is the deputy head of the Department of Finance at the Faculty of Economics and Management of the Gdańsk University of Technology. Publications are situated in the field of social sciences in the discipline of economics and finance. They include books, monographs, articles, publications and scientific editions of monographs and scientific journals. In terms of numbers, it includes the following items: 12 monographs...
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Young drivers accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: young driver offender. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Motorcycle and moped accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: motorcyclists and mopeds. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Elderly people accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: elderly people (65+) - drivers, passengers and . vulnerable road user. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Alcohol and drug accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, risk group: Offenders under influence of alcohol or drug - driver or pedestrian. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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A ship domain-based model of collision risk for near-miss detection and Collision Alert Systems
PublicationThe paper presents a new model of ship collision risk, which utilises a ship domain concept and the related domain-based collision risk parameters. An encounter is here described by five variables representing: degree of domain violation (DDV), relative speed of the two vessels, combination of the vessels’ courses, arena violations and encounter complexity. As for the first three variables, their values can be directly computed...
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Risk of power cables insulation failure due to the thermal effect of solar radiation
PublicationLow-voltage, as well as high-voltage power cable lines, are usually buried in the ground. The ampacity of the power cables in the ground mainly depends on the thermal resistivity of the soil, which may vary in a wide range. A common practice in power cable systems performance is to supply them from a pole of an overhead line. If so, a section of the line is located in free air and can be directly exposed to solar radiation. In...
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Application of Bayesian Networks in risk diagnostics arising from the degree of urban regeneration area degradation
PublicationUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Environmental risk- based ranking of solvents by the combination of multimedia model and multi-criteria decision analysis
PublicationA novel procedure for assessing the environmental risk related to solvents emissions has been developed. The assessment of risk is based on hazard and exposure detailed investigations. The potential exposure related to different environmental phases is calculated with basic multimedia model, that gives the percentage distribution of solvent in environmental compartments as a result. Specific hazards– toxicological, environmental...
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JOURNAL OF CARDIOVASCULAR RISK
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Journal of Credit Risk
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Journal of Risk Finance
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Climate Risk Management
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LAW PROBABILITY & RISK
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Microbial Risk Analysis
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HEALTH RISK & SOCIETY
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Statistics & Risk Modeling
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Health Risk Analysis
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Risk and Decision Analysis
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JOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE
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JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH
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Journal of Operational Risk
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JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Side-impact accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, type of accidents: Side-impact. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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Accidents, victims and risk levels on regional roads in pomorskie voivodeship, 2017-2019 - Excessive speed accidents
Open Research DataData contain risk classification on regional roads (voivodeship roads) in pomorskie voivodeship in 2017-2019, cause of accidents: Excessive speed accidents. Measures used to assess the level of risk are (5 classes low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high):
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A Simulation Model for Risk and Pricing Competition in the Retail Lending Market
PublicationWe propose a simulation model of the retail lending market with two types of agents: borrowers searching for low interest rates and lenders competing through risk-based pricing. We show that individual banks observe adverse selection, even if every lender applies the same pricing strategy and a credit scoring model of comparable discrimination power. Additionally, the model justifies the reverse-S shape of the response rate curve....
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Detailed results of shaping personnel risk factors in enterprise D
Open Research DataThe data presents the shape of all the researched personnel risk factors in the D enterprise (which was tested by the author). Further considerations should be started with the presentation of the synthesis of the obtained results, which is presented in this research data.
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Detailed results of shaping personnel risk factors in enterprise A
Open Research DataThe data presents the shape of all the researched personnel risk factors in the A enterprise (which was tested by the author). Further considerations should be started with the presentation of the synthesis of the obtained results, which is presented in this research data.
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A synthetic result of the development of personnel risk factors in the A, B, C, D enterprise
Open Research DataThe data below presents the shape of all the researched personnel risk factors in the A, B, C, D enterprise (which were tested by the author). Further considerations should be started with the presentation of the synthesis of the obtained results, which is presented in this research data.
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Environmental risk assessment of Polish wastewater treatment plant activity
PublicationWastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) play an extremely important role in shaping modern society's environmental wellbeing and awareness, however only well operated and supervised systems can be considered as environmentally sustainable. For this reason, an attempt was undertaken to assess the environmental burden posed by WWTPs in major Polish cities by collecting water samples prior to and just after wastewater release points....
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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Microstructure and properties of an AZ61 alloy after extrusion with a forward-backward oscillating die without preheating of the initial billet
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Risk of Delays in Implementation of Building Investment in Urban Conditions in the Aspect of Historical Background of its Location
PublicationThe implementation of a construction investment in urban conditions is extremely complex, and at the same time exposed to a high risk of a specific character. In case of construction investment located in the historic part of the city, the possible accumulation of many unfavourable factors, which in course of its implementation, may constitute a serious source of delays and disruptions, should be taken into account at the preparation...
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Highway engineering risk assessment
PublicationNa drogach krajowych w Polsce rocznie ginie ponad 2000 osób w wypadkach drogowych, co stanowi ponad 37% ogółu ofiar śmiertelnych w wypadkach. Do poprawy stanu bezpieczeństwa na tych drogach muszą byc podjęte działania zmierzające do systematycznego dostosowania poszcz. odcinków dróg do standardów bezpieczeństwa. Jednym z narzędzi pomocnych do wyboru odcinków dróg o największym potencjale mozliwych do uratowania od śmierci uczestników...