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Search results for: COMPUTER SIMULATIONS, CALCULUS OF PROBABILITY, MODELLING, SURVIVAL, PROBABILITY, RISK, FORECASTING, RELIABILITY
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The generalized Suzuki model of the multipath fading channel
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of simulations that are part of the research on modelling the multipath fading in the communication channel. The generalized Suzuki fading envelope is generated using the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) in the LabVIEW programming environment.
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The Rayleigh model of the multipath fading channel
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of simulations that are part of the research on modelling the multipath fading in the communication channel. The Rayleigh fading envelope is generated using the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) in the LabVIEW programming environment.
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The Weibull model of the multipath fading channel
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of simulations that are part of the research on modelling the multipath fading in the communication channel. The Weibull fading envelope is generated using the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) in the LabVIEW programming environment.
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The α-µ model of the multipath fading channel
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of simulations that are part of the research on modelling the multipath fading in the communication channel. The envelope of the α-µ fading process is generated using the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) in the LabVIEW programming environment.
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The Suzuki model of the multipath fading channel
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of simulations that are part of the research on modelling the multipath fading in the communication channel. The Suzuki fading envelope is generated using the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) in the LabVIEW programming environment.
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The lognormal model of the multipath fading channel
Open Research DataThe dataset contains the results of simulations that are part of the research on modelling the multipath fading in the communication channel. The lognormal fading envelope is generated using the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) in the LabVIEW programming environment.
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Reliability Analysis of Data Storage Using Survival Signature and Logic Differential Calculus
PublicationThe Data storage system is an important part of any information system. All the necessary data that must be available for the successful operation of the information system are stored here. Therefore, it is advisable to think about the reliability of such a data storage system. As part of reliability engineering, it is possible to perform a reliability analysis of any system. Therefore, the data storage system can be analyzed as...
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Floodable length curves based on probability of survival.
PublicationPrzedstawiono możliwość obliczanie krzywych grodziowych dla statku o mieszanym podziale grodziowym dla zadanej wartości mnożnika s, traktowanego jako parametr. Krzywe takie, dotąd nie stosowane, mogą znacznie ułatwić optymalizowanie podziału grodziowego względem wskaźnika niezatapialności.
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Probability modelling of vessel collisions
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LAW PROBABILITY & RISK
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublicationThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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Probability Uncertainty and Quantitative Risk
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Reliability data safety instrumented systems SIS from the functional safety analysis example critical instalation
Open Research DataThe dataset represents the results of an example of functional safety analysis systems is presented below. It is based on a control system, which consists of some basic components like sensors, programmable logic controllers and valves. It is a part of petrochemical critical installations. The communication between sensor logic controllers and actuators...
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Janusz Górski prof. dr hab. inż.
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Jerzy Konorski dr hab. inż.
PeopleJerzy Konorski received his M. Sc. degree in telecommunications from Gdansk University of Technology, Poland, and his Ph. D. degree in computer science from the Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland. In 2007, he defended his D. Sc. thesis at the Faculty of Electronics, Telecommunications and Informatics, Gdansk University of Technology. He has authored over 150 papers, led scientific projects funded by the European Union,...
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Machine Learning Algorithm-Based Tool and Digital Framework for Substituting Daylight Simulations In Early- Stage Architectural Design Evaluation
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to examine the new method of obtaining the simulation-based results using backpropagation of errors artificial neural networks. The primary motivation to conduct the research was to determine an alternative, more efficient and less timeconsuming method which would serve to achieve the results of daylight simulations. Three daylight metrics: Daylight Factor, Daylight Autonomy and Daylight Glare Probability have...
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Human Factors and Functional Safety Analysis in Designing the Control Rooms of Industrial Hazardous Plants
PublicationIn this work some aspects of human factors and functional safety analysis in designing the control rooms of industrial hazardous plants are presented. The “defence in depth” (D-in-D) concept is outlined. Some designing issues of the alarm system (AS) with regard to human factors to be supported using the human reliability analysis (HRA) are discussed. The AS and decision support system (DSS), when properly designed, would contribute...
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Simulation of Life Raft Motions on Irregular Wave - An Analysis of Situations Leading to Raft Capsizing
PublicationSuccessful rescue action at sea is based on a. o. a correct choice of rescue means and their reliability. Operational characteristics of life-saving appliances determine their performance in a given water area. Therefore they affect duration time of rescue action and decide this way on survival time of shipwrecked persons. This paper presents impact of characteristics of circular inflatable life rafts on their dynamics in a...
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An updated method identifying collision-prone locations for ships. A case study for oil tankers navigating in the Gulf of Finland
PublicationTo ensure the risk level associated with continuously increasing maritime traffic through particularly sensitive sea areas remains at acceptable level, a periodic risk assessment needs to be carried out by the relevant authorities. As a part of such assessment, allowing for proactive countermeasures to mitigate risk, the frequency of accidents is estimated along with the assessment of geographical locations where the accidents...
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Wrażliwość probabilistyczna stanów granicznych konstrukcji - metoda Monte Carlo
PublicationPraca ukazuje zastosowanie metody symulacyjnej Monte Carlo w analizie losowej konstrukcji inżynierskich. Systematyka metod losowych obejmuje ich trzy poziomy, z zaznaczeniem poziomu trzeciego, o dowolnych typach zmiennych losowych – zmiennych podstawowych problemu. Ukazano przykład modelowana losowego obciążenia wiatrem na podstawie 10-letnich pomiarów prędkości wiatru, wykazując zgodność zbioru danych z rozkładem ekstremów Gumbela....
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Harmony Search for Self-configuration of Fault–Tolerant and Intelligent Grids
PublicationIn this paper, harmony search algorithms have been proposed to self-configuration of fault-tolerant grids for big data processing. Self-configuration of computer grids lies in the fact that new computer nodes are automatically configured by software agents and then integrated into the grid. A base node works due to several configuration parameters that define some aspects of data communications and energy power consumption. We...
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How to apply the probabilistic model of measurement processes successfully
PublicationApplicational aspects of probabilistic model of measurement processes, proposed by G.B. Rossi, are considered. The main idea of the model - using of Bayes-Laplace postulate for solution of inverse probability problem, is substituted by Fisher's concept of the likelihood function, expressed in the data translated format. This approach gives a clear-sighted solution of inverse probability. Some recommendations for application of...
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Możliwość oszacowania niezawodności silników o zapłonie samoczynnym z zastosowaniem teorii procesów semi-Markowa oraz podejmowania decyzji eksploatacyjnych z uwzględnieniem wiarygodności diagnozy o stanie technicznym tego rodzaju silników spalinowych = Possibility of estimating the reliability of diesel engines by applying the theory of semi-Markov processes and making operational decisions by considering reliability of diagnosis on technical state of this sort of combustion engines/
PublicationThe paper presents semi-Markov models of technical state transitions for diesel engines, useful for determining reliability of the engines. A possibility of application of a three-state model with a simplified matrix function, or even a two-state model, to determine reliability of the engines, has been described herein on examples of known from literature semi-Markov models, for the case when appropriate diagnosing systems (SDG)...
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Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study
PublicationThis paper presents a model to analyse the risk of two common marine accidents: collision and grounding. Attention is focused on oil tankers since they pose the highest environmental risks. A case study in selected areas of the Gulf of Finland in ice-free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a formula for risk calculation that considers both the probability of an unwanted event and its consequences. The model can be decomposed...
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Marek Czachor prof. dr hab.
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Probabilistic sensitivity of limit states of structures : The Monte Carlo simulation
PublicationThe main issue of the paper is the probabilistic sensitivity of the limit states of structures with respect to selected input design variables. Attempt to the problem is done by the dedicated Monte Carlo simulation procedure. Basic design variables are random variables of given probability distributions, presented in the form of random numbers. Uni-parametrical increment of the dominant basic variable (basic variables) is done,...
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Four-state stochastic model of changes in the reliability states of a motor vehicle
PublicationThe properties of semi-Markov processes have been generally characterized and the applicability of the theory of such processes to the determining of the reliability of motor cars and other road vehicles has been explained. A formal description of the process of changes in the motor vehicle technical states considered as reliability states and a model of this process in the form of a one-dimensional stochastic process have been...
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Examining Ownership Equity as a Psychological Factor on Tourism Business Failure Forecasting
PublicationThis paper examines ownership equity as a predictor of future business failure within the tourism and hospitality sectors. The main goals of this study were to examine which ratios are the most important for a tourism business failure forecasting model and how significant is the “total percentage of equity ownership by company directors” ratio compared with other ratios associated with the probability of bankruptcy. A stepwise...
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EXTREME RAINFALLS AS A CAUSE OF URBAN FLASH FLOODS; A CASE STUDY OF THE ERBIL-KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ
PublicationAim of the study The current paper aims to give a detailed evaluation and analysis of some extreme rainfall events that happened in the last decade in terms of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution, intensity rate, and exceedance probability. Moreover, it examines the effects of each analysed aspect on the resulting flash floods in the studied area. Material and methods In their glossary of meteorology, American Meteorology...
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Selected problems of sensitivity and reliability of a jack-up platform
PublicationThe paper deals with sensitivity and reliability applications to numerical studies of an off-shore platform model. Structural parameters and sea conditions are referred to the Baltic jack-up drilling platform. The study aims at the influence of particular basic variables on static and dynamic response as well as the probability of failure due to water waves and wind loads. The paper presents the sensitivity approach to a generalized...
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublicationPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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The reliability of tree and star networks.
PublicationOne of the important parameters characterizing the quality of computer networks is the network's reliability with respect to failures of the communication links and nodes. This chapter investigated the reliability of tree and star networks. The tree and star topology is used in centralized computer networks. In centralized computer networks all communication must take place through some central computer. Following measures of network...
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Overheating of underground power cable line due to its partial exposition to solar radiation
PublicationCurrent-carrying capacity of underground power cable lines depends, among others, on thermal resistivity of the soil and cables layout: trefoil formation, flat formation with or without spacing. If conditions for heat transfer in the ground are favorable, the current-carrying capacity is relatively high. Therefore, it generates risk of the power cables overheating, if part of the cable line is located vertically in the air, to...
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Rafał Leszczyna dr hab. inż.
PeopleDr hab. Rafal Leszczyna is an associate professor at Gdansk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics. He holds the M.Sc. degrees of Computer Science and Business Management. In December, 2006 he earned a Ph.D. in Computer Science, specialisation - Computer Security at the Faculty of Electronics, Telecommunications and Informatics of Gdansk University of Technology. Between 2004 and 2008 he worked in the European...
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Development of tools for road infrastructure safety management for the provinces (voivodeships) in Poland
PublicationThe development of modern tools for road infrastructure safety management will help to reduce the number of fatalities and serious injuries as one of the main objectives adopted in 2013 in the National Road Safety Programme 2014-2020 and the new Road Safety Programme 2011-2020 in the EU. Risk Management in Highway Engineering can be applied in developing tools essential in the process of safety management. Risk Management in Highway...
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A cumulative probability function of instantaneous flicker sensation values measured in the industrial power system supplying the rolling mill motors
Open Research DataThe dataset presents a cumulative probability function CPF of the instantaneous flicker sensation level measured on the bus bars of the main switchgear of the industrial power network for the supply of rolling mills. The data were obtained during an experiment whose purpose was to determine a level of short-term and long-term flicker caused by voltage...
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Merton-type default risk and financial performance: the dynamic panel moderation of firm size
PublicationPurpose – The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation of firm size. Design/methodology/approach – This study utilizes a total of 1,500 firm-year observations from 2013 to 2018 using dynamic panel data approach of generalized method of moments to test the relationship between default risk and financial...
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Prognostic and diagnostic capabilities of OOBN in assessing investment risk of complex construction projects
PublicationModelling decision problems using Bayesian networks is extremely valuable especially in case of issues related to uncertainty; it is also very helpful in constructing and understanding visual representation of the elements and their relations. This approach facilitates subsequent application of Bayesian networks, however there can be situations where using simple Bayesian networks is impractical or even ineffective. The aim of...
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Simulator for Performance Evaluation of ASON/GMPLS Network
PublicationThe hierarchical control plane network architecture of Automatically Switched Optical Network with utilization of Generalized Multi-Protocol Label Switching protocols is compliant to next generation networks requirements and can supply connections with required quality of service, even with incomplete domain information. Considering connection control, connection management and network management, the controllers of this architecture...
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Risk Analysis by a Probabilistic Model of the Measurement Process
PublicationThe aim of the article is presentation of the testing methodology and results of examination the probabilistic model of the measurement process. The case study concerns the determination of the risk of an incorrect decision in the assessment of the compliance of products by measurement. Measurand is characterized by the generalized Rayleigh distribution. The model of the meas-urement process was tested in parallel mode by six risk...
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Tax Evasion, Tax Morale, and Trade Regulations: Company-Level Evidence from Poland
PublicationObjective: To investigate the determinants of the phenomenon of evading taxes among polish entrepreneurs. In particular, I examine such factors as tax administration satisfaction, tax morale, tax burden, and the influence of trade regulations. Research Design & Methods: A survey study conducted in 2017 in Poland among 454 enterprises. I used the zero-inflated negative binomial modelling technique to examine the impact of factors...
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Effectiveness of Random Field Approach in Serviceability Limit State Analysis of Strip Foundation
PublicationThis work conducts a probabilistic inquiry on how the variability of the parameter defining soil deformability affects the settlement of the foundation located on the soil. The analysis addresses the random foundation model to relevantly estimate the probability of allowable deflection exceedance. The constitutive model parameter is based either on a single random variable or a random field. The computations incorporate direct...
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Harmony Search to Self-Configuration of Fault-Tolerant Grids for Big Data
PublicationIn this paper, harmony search algorithms have been proposed to self-configuration of fault-tolerant grids for big data processing. Some tasks related to big data processing have been considered. Moreover, two criteria have been applied to evaluate quality of grids. The first criterion is a probability that all tasks meet their deadlines and the second one is grid reliability. Furthermore, some intelligent agents based on harmony...
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Reliability Analysis of Sea Cliff Slope Stability by Point Estimate Method
PublicationThe paper presents a reliability analysis of a sea cliff slope. The cliff, located in Jastrzębia Góra, is characterised by a complicated geological structure. Although currently stable, it is in fact close to the limit state. The objective of this paper is to present the point estimate method (PEM) of determining the mean value and standard deviation of the safety factor of the slope. Assuming its normal distribution, these statistical...
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Reliability Analysis of Sea Cliff Slope Stability by Point Estimate Method
PublicationThe paper presents a reliability analysis of a sea cliff slope. The cliff, located in Jastrzębia Góra, is characterised by a complicated geological structure. Although currently stable, it is in fact close to the limit state. The objective of this paper is to present the point estimate method (PEM) of determining the mean value and standard deviation of the safety factor of the slope. Assuming its normal distribution, these statistical...
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A framework for risk matrix design: A case of MASS navigation risk
PublicationRisk matrix, a tool for visualizing risk assessment results, is essential to facilitate the risk communication and risk management in risk-based decision-making processes related to new and unexplored socio-technical systems. The use of an appropriate risk matrix is discussed in the literature, but it is overlooked for emerging technologies such as Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). In this study, a comprehensive framework...
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Arithmetic Loophole in Bell's Theorem: Overlooked Threat to Entangled-State Quantum Cryptography
PublicationBell’s theorem is supposed to exclude all local hidden-variable models of quantum correlations. However,an explicit counterexample shows that a new class of local realistic models, based on generalized arith-metic and calculus, can exactly reconstruct rotationally symmetric quantum probabilities typical oftwo-electron singlet states. Observable probabilities are consistent with the usual arithmetic employedby macroscopic observers...
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Prognozowanie wpływu drgań komunikacyjnych na budynki mieszkalne za pomocą sztucznych sieci neuronowych i maszyn wektorów wspierających
PublicationDrgania komunikacyjne mogą stanowić duże obciążenie eksploatacyjne budynku, powodując zarysowania i spękania tynków, odpadanie wypraw, zarysowania konstrukcji, pękanie elementów konstrukcji lub nawet zawalenie się budynku. Pomiary drgań na rzeczywistych konstrukcjach są pracochłonne i kosztowne, a co ważne nie w każdym przypadku są one uzasadnione. Celem pracy jest analiza autorskiego algorytmu, dzięki któremu z dużym prawdopodobieństwem...
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Active Kriging-based conjugate first-order reliability method for highly efficient structural reliability analysis using resample strategy
PublicationEfficient structural reliability analysis method is crucial to solving reliability analysis of complex structural problems. High-computational cost and low-failure probability problems greatly limit the efficiency in structural reliability analysis problems, causing the safety and reliability of the structure to be questioned. In this work, a highly efficient structural reliability analysis method coupling active Kriging algorithm...
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Supporting development of the smart ship technology by CFD simulation of ship behavior in close to real operational conditions
PublicationThe shipping industry is at the milestone of technological development – autonomous ships. Involving smart technologies accelerates development of green and safe shipping. Also IMO regulations, especially EEDI en-hanced application of new technologies. Meeting economic and ecological requirements future ships need to be designed with respect to increased reliability and operational performance. Design process of ships may be improved...