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Search results for: NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECASTING
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Numerical analysis of size effect in RC beams scaled along height or length using elasto-plastic-damage model enhanced by non-local softening.
PublicationArtykuł omawia wyniki numeryczne dotyczące efektu skali w belkach żelbetowych uzyskane stosując metodę elementów skończonych. Dwuwymiarowe obliczenia wykonano dla belek żelbetowych podczas 4-punktowego zginania. Belki były skalowane wzdłuż wysokości lub długości. Beton został opisany prawem sprężysto-plastycznym z degradacją sztywności, rozszerzonym o nielokalność w osłabieniu. Wyniki numeryczne zostały porównane z wynikami doświadczalnymi....
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Multi-level models of transport systems for traffic management
PublicationThe region of Pomorskie uses a variety of tools for forecasting and analysing transport. They can be operated, calibrated and updated with data that will be collected and stored in the TRISTAR system. An initiative of the Department of Highway Engineering of the Gdansk University of Technology is designed to develop and implement an integrated and hierarchical system for forecasting and analysing transport called MST (Multilevel...
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Electricity demand prediction by multi-agent system with history-based weighting
PublicationEnergy and load demand forecasting in short-horizons, over an interval ranging from one hour to one week, is crucial for on-line scheduling and security functions of power system. Many load forecasting methods have been developed in recent years which are usually complex solutions with many adjustable parameters. Best-matching models and their relevant parameters have to be determined in a search procedure. We propose a hybrid...
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Integration and verification of meteorological observations and NWP model data for the local GNSS tomography
PublicationGNSS meteorology applies the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) to derive information about the state of the atmosphere (particularly troposphere). The tomography is one of the methods used in GNSS meteorology. The input data of GNSS tomography are the signal troposphere delays, results of GNSS data processing and additionally meteorological observations and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models data. Different types...
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Numeryczna analiza trójwymiarowego przepływu w polimerowym łożysku smarowanym wodą = Numerical analysis of three dimensional flow in water lubricated bearing with polymer bearing bush
PublicationW referacie przedstawiono wyniki obliczeń łożysk smarowanych wodą w oparciu o metodę CFD - obliczeniowej mechaniki płynów. Wykazano przydatność nowoczesnych narzędzi obliczeniowych do rozwiązywania podobnych problemów.
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Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises in Latin America and Central Europe. The author has used statistical and soft computing methods to program the prediction models. It compares the effectiveness of twelve different early warningmodels for forecasting the bankruptcy risk of companies. In the research conducted, the author used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange...
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Applying Fuzzy Logic of Expert Knowledge for Accurate Predictive Algorithms of Customer Traffic Flows in Theme Parks
PublicationThis study analyzes two forecasting models based on the application of fuzzy logic and evaluates their effectiveness in predicting visitor expenditure and length of stay at a popular theme park. The forecasting models are based on a set of more than 600 decision rules constructed in the form of a complex series of IF-THEN statements. These algorithms store expert knowledge. A descriptive instrument that records the individual visitor's...
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Modelling fatalities on regional road networks
PublicationDuring the last decade Poland’s road fatalities went down by 44%. The trend differs from region to region. Effective road safetymanagement in regions requires tools for forecasting road safety measures and identifying factors influencing road fatality numbers. Mathematical models can provide such tools. They take into account local characteristics such as: demography, economy, infrastructure and motorization. Such models could...
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An isogeometric finite element formulation for boundary and shell viscoelasticity based on a multiplicative surface deformation split
PublicationThis work presents a numerical formulation to model isotropic viscoelastic material behavior for membranes and thin shells. The surface and the shell theory are formulated within a curvilinear coordinate system,which allows the representation of general surfaces and deformations. The kinematics follow from Kirchhoff–Love theory and the discretization makes use of isogeometric shape functions. A multiplicative split of the surface...
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A review on analytical models of brushless permanent magnet machines
PublicationThis study provides an in-depth investigation of the use of analytical and numerical methods in analyzing electrical machines. Although numerical models such as the finite-element method (FEM) can handle complex geometries and saturation effects, they have significant computational burdens, are time-consuming, and are inflexible when it comes to changing machine geometries or input values. Analytical models based on magnetic equivalent...
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Integration and Visualization of the Results of Hydrodynamic Models in the Maritime Network-Centric GIS of Gulf of Gdansk
PublicationEnsuring of security in the coastal area makes on a seaside countries research in the field of infrastructure spatial information of environmental data. The paper presents the results of work on the construction of this infrastructure by integrating electronic navigational chart with ortophotomaps of coastal areas as well as numerical data from weather and hydrodynamic models. Paper focuses on a problems associated with creating...
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Wyznaczenie optymalnego sposobu eksploatacji ujęć za pomocą modelu numerycznego na przykładzie rejonu Słupska = Determination of the optimal way of the exploitation based on the numerical model - case study Słupsk region
PublicationRejon Słupska należy do obszarów o korzystnych lecz skomplikowanych warunkach hydrogeologicznych. W neogeńskim poziomie wodonośnym wyróżnia się dwie warstwy wodonośne, przy czym obie narażone są na możliwość zasolenia w wyniku ascenzji wód piętra kredowego. Ze względu na planowane zaopatrzenie w wodę miasta Słupska wyłącznie w oparciu o ujęcia Westerplatte i Głobino, badaniami objęto przybliżony obszar zasilania i oddziaływania...
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The Impact of Sloshing Liquids on Ship Stability for Various Dimensions of Partly Filled Tanks
PublicationLiquid sloshing phenomenon taking place in partly filled ships' tanks directly affects the stability of a vessel. However, only static calculations are carried out onboard ships nowadays and static transfer of liquid weight is taken into account in the course of routine stability calculation. The paper is focused on a dynamic heeling moment due to liquid sloshing in tanks onboard ships. A number of numerical simulations of liquid...
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A Method of Assessment of the Liquid Sloshing Impact on Ship Transverse Stability
PublicationLiquid sloshing phenomenon taking place in partly filled ships? tanks directly affects the stability of a vessel. However, only static calculations are carried out onboard ships nowadays and static transfer of liquid weight is taken into account in the course of routine stability calculation. The paper is focused on a dynamic heeling moment due to liquid sloshing in tanks onboard ships. The set of numerical simulations of liquid...
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Finite element modeling of plastic hinges based on ductility demand-capacity method using nonlinear material for dynamic analysis
PublicationThe article discusses modeling plastic hinges in reinforced concrete interme-diate supports using finite elements methods. The ductility demand-capacitymethod was used to determine the geometrical parameters of cross-section plas-ticization zones, their ability to move and rotate, as well as their ductility. Dueto the varied geometry and stiffness of the supports and their nonlinear behav-ior under dynamic load, this method was...
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Adaptive prediction of stock exchange indices by state space wavelet networks
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the Warsaw Stock Exchange price index WIG20 by applying a state space wavelet network model of the index price. The approach can be applied to the development of tools for predicting changes of other economic indicators, especially stock exchange indices. The paper presents a general state space wavelet network model and the underlying principles. The model is applied to produce one session...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublicationThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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Adaptive traffic optimization using Variable Speed Limits; Adaptacyjna optymalizacja ruchu drogowego przy pomocy zmiennych ograniczeń prędkości
PublicationVariable speed limits (VSL) is an intelligent transportation system (ITS) solution for traffic management. The speed limits can be changed dynamically in order to adapt to traffic, weather, or road surface conditions. This paper presents an approach for such an adaptive traffic control where the primary goal is to ensure traffic safety and efficiency of the traffic control system (fast response to dynamically changing traffic,...
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AN ALTERNATIVE WAY OF DETERMINING MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF WOOD BY MEASURING CUTTING FORCES
PublicationThe cutting force is an energetic effect of splitting material, and might be therefore considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. The dedicated mathematical model developed for description of the wood cutting has been developed here on the base of fracture theory, and includes work of separation (fracture toughness) in addition to the material plasticity and friction. The effect of the cutting edge dullness is...
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Non-Least Square GNSS Positioning Algorithm for Densely Urbanized Areas
PublicationThe paper introduces an essentially new algorithm for calculating the GNSS position as an alternative to the least-square method. The proposed approach can be widely applied to any positioning method that uses multiple position lines for position calculation and is an example ofhow using a numerical solution can improve position accuracy without access to historical data. In essence, the method is based on the adaptation of the...
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Numeryczna analiza wpływu kierunku rozchodzenia się fali wybuchu na krzywiznę asymetrycznie walcowanego pasma Al-Cu. Numerical analysis the influence of the direction of explosion wave at the curvature of asymmetrical rolling of bimetallic plate.
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono numeryczną analizę wpływu kierunku rozchodzenia się fali wybuchu na krzywiznę asymetrycznie walcowanego pasma Al-Cu. Przeprowadzono symulacje dla procesu walcowania w temperaturze 20 C. Proces walcowania prowadzono w walcarce duo D 150 mm, o prędkości obwodowej 18,5 obr/min. Badania przeprowadzono dla dwóch stosunków grubości warstw 2/10 i 4/8. Symulację procesu przeprowadzono dla trzech gniotów 10%, 20%,...
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Justification of quasi-stationary approximation in models of gene expression of a self-regulating protein
PublicationWe analyse a model of Hes1 gene transcription and protein synthesis with a negative feedback loop. The effect of multiple binding sites in the Hes1 promoter as well as the dimer formation process are taken into account. We consider three, possibly different, time scales connected with: (i) the process of binding to/dissolving from a binding site, (ii) formation and dissociation of dimers, (iii) production and degradation of Hes1...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Consequences of russia’s military invasion of Ukraine for Polish-Ukrainian trade relations
PublicationAn accurate forecast of interstate trade volume allows for short-term and long-term planning, particularly deciding on state budget revenues, foreign exchange earnings, border arrangement, other infrastructure, migration and social policies. Hostilities are destructive so the russian military aggression against Ukraine in 2022 needs to be assessed in terms of its effects on key economic aspects of Polish-Ukrainian relations, as...
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A new finite element with variable Young's modulus
PublicationThe Finite Element Method (FEM) is a numerical technique that is well-established in the field of engineering. However, in biological sciences, it is justtaking its first steps. Bone tissue is an example of biological material which isexposed to high loads in its natural environment. Practically every movementof the body results in changing stress levels in the bone. Nature copes with thisvery well but when human intervention is...
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Fuel price, income and road safety as determinants of the level of the population’s economic well-being in Poland
PublicationThe opportunity to travel is one of the most favorite human activities, given that on a trip a person gets new knowledge, impressions and positive emotions. Recreational trips occupy a prominent place in the concept of the economics of happiness, and the study of factors that influence decision-making regarding travel is important for forecasting the number of tourists, infrastructure development, income and expenses of businesses...
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Evaluati on of long-term start up costs impact on short-term price based operational optimization of a CCGT using MILP
PublicationAn increasing share of the weather-dependent RES generation in the power system leads to the growing importance of flexibility of conventional power plants. They were usually designed for base load operation and it is a challenge to determine the actual long-term cycling costs, which account for an increase in maintenance and overhaul expenditures, increased forced outage rates and shortened life expectancy of the plant and components....
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A Novel Trust-Region-Based Algorithm with Flexible Jacobian Updates for Expedited Optimization of High-Frequency Structures
PublicationSimulation-driven design closure is mandatory in the design of contemporary high-frequency components. It aims at improving the selected performance figures through adjustment of the structure’s geometry (and/or material) parameters. The computational cost of this process when employing numerical optimization is often prohibitively high, which is a strong motivation for the development of more efficient methods. This is especially...
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Calibration of precipitation estimation algorithm with particular emphasis on the Pomeranian region using high performance computing
PublicationFast and accurate precipitation estimation is an important element of remote atmosphere monitoring, as it allows, for example, to correct short-term weather forecasts and the prediction of several types of meteorological threats. The paper presents methodology for calibrating precipitation estimation algorithm based on MSG SEVIRI sensor data, and Optimal Cloud Analysis product available via EumetCast transmission. Calibration is...
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How does climate change affect ice formation and presence in rivers, lakes and oceans, as well as its impact on infrastructure
PublicationIce season in rivers, lakes, seas and oceans is sensitive to climate change due to the high homologous temperature. Two vital aspects of the predicted climate change are increasing average air temperature and increasing variability in the weather. These cause delayed formation of ice, thinner ice and shorter duration of seasonal ice covers, the geographical ice margin to move further away from the equator, the perennial ice to...
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Results of the application of tropospheric corrections from different troposphere models for precise GPS rapid static positioning
PublicationIn many surveying applications, determination of accurate heights is of significant interest. The delay caused by the neutral atmosphere is one of the main factors limiting the accuracy of GPS positioning and affecting mainly the height coordinate component rather than horizontal ones. Estimation of the zenith total delay is a commonly used technique for accounting for the tropospheric delay in static positioning. However, in the...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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Discrete and continuous fractional persistence problems – the positivity property and applications
PublicationIn this article, we study the continuous and discrete fractional persistence problem which looks for the persistence of properties of a given classical (α=1) differential equation in the fractional case (here using fractional Caputo’s derivatives) and the numerical scheme which are associated (here with discrete Grünwald–Letnikov derivatives). Our main concerns are positivity, order preserving ,equilibrium points and stability...
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On possible applications of media described by fractional-order models in electromagnetic cloaking
PublicationThe purpose of this paper is to open a scientific discussion on possible applications of media described by fractional-order (FO) models (FOMs) in electromagnetic cloaking. A 2-D cloak based on active sources and the surface equivalence theorem is simulated. It employs a medium described by FOM in communication with sources cancelling the scattered field. A perfect electromagnetic active cloak is thereby demonstrated with the use...
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A modelling approach to the transport support for the harvesting and transportation complex under uncertain conditions
PublicationThe article proposes a modelling approach based on structural and parametric identification of the transport support of the harvesting and transportation complex. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed methods of structural and parametric identification for the development of a system for harvesting and transportation complex operation has been proved. A mathematical model based on fuzzy logic has been developed. It reflects...
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Prognozowanie ostrzegawcze w małej firmie
PublicationW artykule pokazano możliwości zastosowania prostych metod prognostycznych do ostrzegania w małej firmie przed niekorzystnymi zjawiskami. Przedmiotem badań jest sprzedaż, a ze względu na występowanie w szeregu czasowym sezonowości, w celu wyznaczenia sygnałów ostrzegawczych dokonano porównań trendów prognozowanych i rzeczywistych w okresach jednoimiennych za pomocą pierwszych różnic. Do prognozowania sprzedaży wykorzystano proste...
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Forecasting Poland`s road deaths. W: [CD-ROM]. Zbornik referatov. V. Medna- rodna Konferenca Globalna Varnost. V. International Conference Global Safe- ty. Portoroz, od 6. do 9 oktobra 2002, Slovenija. [B.m.]: ZVD, Slovene Road Safety Council**2002 [7 s. 5 rys. bibliogr. 8 poz.] Prognozowanie liczby zabitych w ruchu drogowym w Polsce.
PublicationW referacie przedstawiono sytuację w zakresie bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowegow Polsce oraz metodykę tworzenia długoterminowych prognoz rozwoju ryzyka w ruchu drogowym na przykładzie prognozy dla potrzeb Krajowego Programu Bez-pieczeństwa Ruchu drogowego GAMBIT 2000.
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Lithuania inland waterways and its prospects
PublicationInland waterways have some traditions in Lithuania and in neighbor Countries, but during last 50 years other modes of transport move out inland waterway transport from real economical activity. In the same time inland waterways is the main green and sustainable transport system. In this article are presented analysis situation, methodology for the ships optimal using in inland waterways, forecasting of the possible cargo and passenger...
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Parallel implementation of a Sailing Assistance Application in a Cloud Environment
PublicationSailboat weather routing is a highly complex problem in terms of both the computational time and memory. The reason for this is a large search resulting in a multitude of possible routes and a variety of user preferences. Analysing all possible routes is only feasible for small sailing regions, low-resolution maps, or sailboat movements on a grid. Therefore, various heuristic approaches are often applied, which can find solutions...
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Mode choice modelling for urban areas
PublicationThe article presents the question of mode choice modelling in a four-stage travel modelling process. The article indicates limitations of currently used simplified methods of mode choice modelling and presents the possibility of using a more detailed approach that accounts for additional, statistically significant factors with the use of advanced mathematical tools, discrete choice models. A need has also been identified to include...
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SafeCity – a GIS-based tool profiled for supporting decision making in urban development and infrastructure protection
PublicationThis paper presents a system for analysis of municipal Critical Infrastructures, which offers integrated tools for target analysis, hazard scenario simulations and spatial analysis within a remotely accessible Web-based Geographic Information System. The system has been applied to research conducted in the city of Gdansk with the aid of blast attack, chemical leakage and flood hazard scenarios, as well as a spatial density algorithm,...
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ICT technologies and financial innovations: The case of exchange traded funds in Brazil, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and the United States
Publication.
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An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy
PublicationW artykule sprawdzono skuteczność pojedynczego modelu logiki rozmytej w prognozowaniu ryzyka upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. W badaniach wykorzystano wartości 14 wskaźników finansowych oraz ich dynamikę zmiany między pierwszym a drugim, drugim a trzecim oraz trzecim a czwartym rokiem objętymi analizą. We wnioskach omówiono różnicę w skutecznościach modelu uzyskanego na wartościach statycznych oraz dynamicznych wskaźników finansowych....
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Tracing financial innovation diffusion and substitution trajectories. Recent evidence on exchange-traded funds in Japan and South Korea.
PublicationSince the rapid growth of the popularity of ETFs, the potential substitution between innovative financial products, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and traditional investment funds (open-end and closed-end funds) is recognized as one of the most-discussed issues in the financial industry. This is the first study to empirically verify and compare the diffusion and substitution of ETFs using monthly data on their assets in two selected...
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Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?
PublicationThe paper refers to L.E.O. Svensson’s concept of inflation forecast targeting (IFT) and its implementation by central banks of Sweden, Norway and the Czech Republic. The study focuses on (1) inflation forecasts published by selected central banks, i.e.headline inflation and core or monetary policy-relevant (MPR) inflation, which are made on the assumption of endogenous instrument rate, (2) one-year consumer...
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Government in the metaverse: Requirements and suitability for providing digital public services
PublicationDigital government comprises all means to enable governments to interact with their constituents digitally. The metaverse provides a virtual reality environment where various activities can be carried out without physically visiting the places of interest, including the public authorities. Yet, how governments can use the metaverse is unknown. This paper aims to extend the understanding of the metaverse architecture requirements...
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How digital technology affects working conditions in globally fragmented production chains: Evidence from Europe
PublicationThis paper uses a sample of over 9 million workers from 22 European countries to study the intertwined relationship between digital technology, cross-border production links and working conditions. We compare the social consequences of technological change exhibited by three types of innovation: computerisation (software), automation (robots) and artificial intelligence (AI). To fully quantify work-related wellbeing, we propose...
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The potential of web awareness as a determinant of dually defined customer value
PublicationIn the conditions of increasing demand barrier, the enterprise’s basic capital is customers. From an enterprise point of view, this means the need to create a dual perceived and defined customer value which remains related to market value (income and development potential) and customer resource value (reference, information and cooperative potential). The progressing digitisation process transfers business processes, and thus relationships, into...
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Reshaping financial systems: The role of ICT in the diffusion of financial innovations – Recent evidence from European countries
PublicationExchange-traded funds (ETFs) are among the fastest-growing types of innovative financial products. The emergence and spread of these instruments have been facilitated by the digital revolution. Information and communication technology (ICT) is profoundly reshaping the global economic landscape, laying solid foundations for unrestricted and unbounded flows of information and knowledge, eliminating information asymmetries, and furthering...