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Search results for: RISK CLASSES, FORECASTING
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Environmental risk measure of ships
PublicationW artykule wyszczególniono najistotniejsze zanieczyszczenia uwalniane podczas eksploatacji statków. Przedyskutowano norweską propozycję indeksacji środowiskowej statków. Zaproponowano probabilistyczny model do oceny ryzyka stwarzanego przez statki względem środowiska morskiego oraz miarę tego ryzyka. Przedstawiono także wyniki badań wpływu niezawodnośći elementów technicznych i poziomu wyszkolenia załogi na roczne ryzyko środowiskowe...
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Heavy Metals in Sediments of Urban Streams: Contamination and Health Risk Assessment of Influencing Factors
PublicationSediments of two urban streams in northern Poland outflowing to the Baltic Sea were assessed to explain the spatial variation in relation to urbanization level of the catchment, the role of retention tanks (RTs) and identification of pollution level. During the 3 month period of investigation sediment samples were collected from the inflow (IN) and outflow (OUT) of six RTs located on streams for flood protection. Six heavy metals...
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Identification of Risk Factors for Collisions Involving Cyclists Based on Gdansk Example
PublicationThe role of pedestrian and bicycle traffic in Poland has growing trend. The comprehensive traffic study, conducted in Gdansk in 2016, has confirmed the increase in the number of cyclists and their share in the modal split. Therefore, it is particularly important to ensure the safety of this group of unprotected road users. Only in 2015 on the roads of Gdansk occurred 93 accidents (excluding collisions) involving cyclists. As a...
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Activity Evaluation and Selection of Some Classes of Antibiotics with the use of Semi-Empirical Quantum Mechanics and Quantitative Structure- Activity Relationships Approach
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Development of Physics-Based Energy Functions that Predict Medium-Resolution Structures for Proteins of the α, β, and α/β Structural Classes
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High meniscal slope angle as a risk factor for meniscal allograft extrusion
PublicationA meniscal graft extrusion is still an unresolved problem that affects most patients after a meniscal transplantation. Despite the advances in surgical techniques, together with the improved methods for a meniscal allograft sizing, success is only observed in up to 75% of patients after they experience a meniscal allograft transplantation. Because a meniscal extrusion is associated with a cartilage deterioration and the progression...
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Expert systems in assessing the construction process safety taking account of the risk of disturbances
PublicationThe objective of the paper is to present the issue of safety manage-ment during the construction process. Threats in the form of disturb-ances may occur in the preparatory phase, during the execution of the construction project and also during its operational use. The arti-cle presents the concept of applying the methodology based, among others, on Learning Bayesian Networks, Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machine,...
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Risk criteria for sea-going ships arising from the operation of the main engines' crankshaft - conecting rod - piston systems
PublicationIn the article the risk criterion for sea-going ships arising from the operation of the main engines' crankshaft - connecting rod - piston systems is proposed. These criterion is based on the procedures recommended in the Formal Safety Assessment method developed under the auspices of International Maritime Organization (IMO). First of all the collective risk criterion for ship has been proposed. In the next step, the share of...
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CUTTING POWER FORECASTING WHILE WOOD SAWING: FRACTURE MECHANICS APPROACH AND AXELSSON’S MODEL COMPARISON
PublicationIn the classical approach, energetic effects (cutting forces and cutting power) of wood sawing process are generally calculated on the basis of the specific cutting resistance, which is in the case of wood cutting the function of more or less important factors. On the other hand, cutting forces (power) could be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Another way is to forecast cutting power consumption on...
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Forecasting values of cutting power for the sawing process of impregnated pine wood on band sawing machine
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono prognozowane wartości mocy skrawania dla pilarki taśmowej (ST100R firmy STENNER), które są stosowane w polskich tartakach. Wartości mocy skrawania oszacowano dla drewna sosny zwyczajnej (Pinus sylvestris L.), które zostało poddane impregnacji. Dla porównania wyznaczono również wartości mocy skrawania dla drewna niezaimpregnowanego. Wartości te określono za pomocą innowacyjnej metody prognozowania sił skrawania,...
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Optimization-based stacked machine-learning method for seismic probability and risk assessment of reinforced concrete shear walls
PublicationEfficient seismic risk assessment aids decision-makers in formulating citywide risk mitigation plans, providing insights into building performance and retrofitting costs. The complexity of modeling, analysis, and post-processing of the results makes it hard to fast-track the seismic probabilities, and there is a need to optimize the computational time. This research addresses seismic probability and risk assessment of reinforced...
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A Revised Approach to Flood Damage Estimation in Flood Risk Maps and Flood Risk Management Plans, Poland
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A performance-oriented risk-based method for assessment of safety of ships. Modelling uncertainties in hazard and risk analysis
PublicationW artykule podano informacje na temat alternatywnej metody oceny bezpieczeństwa statków, opartej na ocenie zachowania się statku i ocenie ryzyka. Zaproponowano użycie metody do projektowania statków w oparciu o ocenę ryzyka. W takim podejściu do projektowania bezpieczeństwo powinno być celem projektowym. Ocena bezpieczeństwa w proponowanej metodzie powinna być dokonywana na podstawie oceny ryzyka. Do oceny ryzyka zastosowano elementy...
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Procedure based proactive functional safety management for the risk mitigation of hazardous events in the oil port installations including insurance aspects
PublicationThis article addresses selected technical and organization aspects of risk mitigation in the oil port installations with regard to functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The procedure for functional safety management includes the hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on risk assessment results...
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Strategic Risk Measures in Road Traffic
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Risk Modelling for Passages in Approach Channel
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A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers
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Board Gender Diversity and Firm Risk
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Risk Identification Patterns for Software Projects.
PublicationArtykuł prezentuje metodę identyfikacji ryzyka w projektach informatycznych z użyciem wzorców ryzyka odnoszących się do modelu procesu projektowego. W artykule zdefiniowano meta-model dla modelowania procesów ukierunkowany na analizę ryzyka oraz proste i złożone wzorce ryzyka wywiedzione z tego meta-modelu, jak również pokazano przykładowe użycie wzorców do opisu czynników ryzyka odnoszących się do modelu RUP. Metodę poddano walidacji...
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A service-oriented approach to the identification of IT Risk
PublicationArtykuł przedstawia ogólne podejście do identyfikacji ryzyka eksploatacji systemów informatycznych, które obejmuje bezpieczeństwo, ochronę, prywatność oraz uzależnienie. Podejście oparte jest na badaniu trybów awarii usług dostarczanych użytkownikom przez oprogramowanie. Identyfikacja ryzyka na podstawie przeglądu usług uzupełniana jest listami kontrolnymi wyprowadzonymi ze standardów, a także klasycznymi technikami analizy bezpieczeństwa...
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Frameworks for uncertainly representation in risk assessments
PublicationArtykuł dotyczy wybranych zagadnień związanych z niepewnością w ilościowych obliczeniach analizy ryzyka. Problem ten stał się bardzo istotny, ponieważ wystąpiły wymagania w określaniu niepewności w procedurach obliczeń ryzyka.Dyskutuje się potencjalne źródła niepewności oraz dokonuje przeglądu teoretycznych ram do modelowania niepewności. Dla złożonych systemów ryzyka proponuje się obliczenia przedziałowo (rozmyto) probabilistyczne,...
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Flood zones - a risk for the urban areas
PublicationPrzedstawiono studium dotyczące wyznaczenia stref zagrożenia powodziowego dla miasta Warszawy wskutek wezbrań rzeki Wisły. Do oszacowania zasięgu stref wykorzystano matematyczny model ustalonego przepływu wolnozmiennego oraz numeryczny model terenu doliny rzeki. Do zobrazowania uzyskanych wyników zastosowano system GIS. Na podstawie uzyskanych wyników zidentyfikowano obszary miasta Warszawy narażone na ewentualną powódź oraz odcinki...
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Thermal and Electrodynamic Risk of Residual Current Devices in the Case of Back-Up Protection by Overcurrent Circuit Breakers
PublicationResidual current operated circuit breakers without integral overcurrent protection should be back-up protected. As back-up protection devices, overcurrent circuit breakers are used. The maximum let-through energy and let-through current of the overcurrent devices were evaluated under laboratory conditions. The thermal and electrodynamic risk of residual current devices was analyzed.
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Risk of Cost Overruns in Implementation of Building Investment in Urban Conditions in the Aspect of Historical Background of its Location
PublicationThe article is a continuation of the authors' analyzes on the risk of delays in implementation of building investment in urban conditions in the aspect of historical background of its location. In case of construction investment located in the historic part of the city, the possible accumulation of many unfavourable factors, which in course of its implementation, may constitute a serious source of cost overruns and disruptions,...
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Evidence-Based Risk Management for Civil Engineering Projects Using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)
PublicationThe authors are seeking new methods for improving the efficiency of the investments associated with the maintenance and operation of existing civil engineering structures. It is demonstrated how the knowledge about the elements of construction and operation phases and their relationships, combined with monitoring data can be used for more effective management of the risks associated with civil engineering projects. The methodology...
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PRELIMINARY FIELD TESTS AND LONG-TERM MONITORING AS A METHOD OF DESIGN RISK MITIGATION: A CASE STUDY OF GDAŃSK DEEPWATER CONTAINER TERMINAL
PublicationAppropriate risk assessment plays a fundamental role in the design. . The authors propose a possible method of design risk mitigation, which follows recommendations included in Eurocode 7. The so-called “Observational Method” (OM) can produce savings in costs and programmes on engineering projects without compromising safety. The case study presented is a complex design solution that deals with the heavy foundations of a gantry...
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Exposure scenario and risk assessment of infants and newborns to bisphenols and their derivatives from diapers
PublicationNewborns and infants are more sensitive to harmful compounds such as bisphenols and their derivatives because of their not fully developed detoxification mechanism. Exposure to these substances can lead to developmental problems and health consequences in adulthood. Since disposable baby diapers are used from the first days of life and remain in contact with the baby skin, it seems important to monitor the levels of endocrine disrupting chemicals...
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Direct human contact with siloxanes (silicones): safety or risk. Part 1: characteristics of siloxanes (silicones
PublicationSiloxanes are commonly known as silicones. They belong to the organosiliconcompounds and are exclusively obtained by synthesis. Their chemical structuredetermines a range of physicochemical properties which were recognized as unique.Due to the susceptibility to chemical modifications, ability to create short, long orcomplex polymer particles, siloxanes found an application in many areas of human life.
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A simplified method to assess the impact of ship-to-ship collision on the risk of tanker ship hull girder breaking accounting for the effect of ageing
PublicationOne of the most critical structural failures is the exceedance of the ship hull girder’s ultimate strength, which may result in hull breaking, and subsequent severe consequences, including loss of life and property as well as environmental damage in case of an oil spill. A cause for such loss of structural continuity can be triggered by a collision with another vessel. In addition, the ageing mechanisms of the hull structure could...
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Catheter-induced coronary artery and aortic dissections. A study of the mechanisms, risk factors, and propagation causes
PublicationBackground: Only the incidence, management, and prognosis of catheter-induced coronary artery and aortic dissections have been systematically studied until now. We sought to evaluate their mechanisms, risk factors, and propagation causes. Methods: Electronic databases containing 76,104 procedures and complication registries from 2000– –2020 were searched and relevant cineangiographic studies adjudicated. Results: Ninety-six dissections...
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A framework estimating the minimum sample size and margin of error for maritime quantitative risk analysis
PublicationThe average accident frequency is essential for quantitative risk analysis and is conventionally estimated from accident statistics. This paper has systematically synthesised the knowledge on statistical errors and offered the missing instructions, a framework, for determining the minimum sample size and the margin of error (MOE) when calculating the average accident frequency from an accident database at hand. We have applied...
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The Effectiveness of Catching Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae: Noctuinae) (= Agrotinae) in Pheromone Traps and Light Traps, for Short-Term Forecasting
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The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings
PublicationTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to...
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TISAX - optimization of IT risk management in the automotive industry
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Risk management model of winter navigation operations
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An appropriate SCORE to assess cardiovascular risk in hypertension?
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Mycotoxins in red wine: Occurrence and risk assessment
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Environmental risk, toxicity, and biodegradation of polyethylene: a review
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Business Risk Management in Times of Crises and Pandemics
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Analysis of the exposure of Polish lakes to flood risk
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Automatic system of constructions corrosion risk assessment
PublicationPrzedstawiony został system pomiaru szybkości korozji pracujący w przemysłowej instalacji wodnej. Mierzone wartości szybkości korozji przesyłane są za pomocą telefonii komórkowej (GPRS) co umożliwia obserwację wyników on-line. Zastosowanie tego rodzaju systemu pozwala na wykonywanie pomiarów korozyjnych umożliwiających kontrolę instalacji w sposób ciągły.
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Hierarchical approach to security monitoring and risk evaluation
PublicationPrzedstawiono problemy bezpieczeństwa sieciowego z uwzględnieiem metod szacowania i oceny bezpieczeństwa w skali lokalnej i globalnej. Podano przykłady analizy 3 systemów wraz z wnioskami oraz sugestie dotyczące trendów przyszłościowych.
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Traffic risk modelling using time-series
PublicationW referacie przedstawiono metodę prognozowania ryzyka w ruchu drogowym powstałą na bazie analizy szeregów czasowych. W jej oparciu dla danych o liczbie śmiertelnych ofiar wypadków drogowych w Polsce w latach 1989-2000 zbudowano model i wykonano prognozę rozwoju trendu w przyszłości.
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A method of software project risk identyfication and analysis
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A model of risk for assessment of ships in damaged conditions
PublicationW pracy omówiono problemy związane z modelowaniem zagrożeń, konsekwencji i ryzyka, w metodzie oceny bezpieczeństwa statków w stanie uszkodzonym. W celu dokonania oceny bezpieczeństwa statku, w metodzie zastosowano podejścia oparte na ocenie zachowania się statku i ocenie ryzyka. Podejście oparte na ocenie zachowania się statku związane jest z oceną charakterystyk hydromechanicznych statku w stanie uszkodzonych w warunkach zbliżonych...
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Basics on Commodities Risk Management for Grains Trading
PublicationCelem artykułu jest określenie rodzajów grup ryzyka występujących na rynku zbóż oraz przedstawienie możliwości ograniczania wystąpienia zjawisk niepożądanych. Pojawia się kwestia: w jakim stopniu podmioty rynku zbóż, a w szczególności producenci, powinni sami neutralizować występujące ryzyko, a kiedy powinni oczekiwać wsparcia ze strony instytucji państwowych. Coraz powszechniej zastosowanie znajdują instrumenty finansowe w postaci...
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Corporate social responsibility and forward default risk under firm and industry heterogeneity
PublicationObjective: This study aims to evaluate the impact of corporate social responsibility on forward default risk (FDR) under the setting of firm and industry heterogeneity. Research Design & Methods: This study evaluated the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on FDR using the data of 497 companies from 2007-2021 in the S&P 500 index, taking into account firm and industry heterogeneity aspects. This study utilized instrumental...
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State tax policy and reform tools as a risk of running a business. Case study based on Polski Ład – Polish tax reform
PublicationThe aim of the article is to describe and present the Polish tax reform introduced at the beginning of 2022. Tax changes introduced in Poland had a strong impact on the risk of running a business in Poland because in their assumption they directly changed the rules of running a business. Due to the pace of the introduced changes, as well as the scope of the reform, the new tax law was subject to numerous criticisms of taxpayers...
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Circulating miRNA profiles and the risk of hemorrhagic transformation after thrombolytic treatment of acute ischemic stroke: a pilot study
PublicationBackground: Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in acute ischemic stroke is likely to occur in patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and may lead to neurological deterioration and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH). Despite the complex inclusion and exclusion criteria for IVT and some useful tools to stratify HT risk, sICH still occurs in approximately 6% of patients because some of the risk factors for this...
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Does the Use of Cell Phones and Headphones at the Signalised Pedestrian Crossings Increase the Risk of Accident?
PublicationReduction of the number of fatalities among pedestrians remains a topical issue in Poland. For many years, this percentage has remained at around 30% of all those who were killed on the road. At the same time, there is an increase in the use of electronic devices by pedestrians and cyclists that may affect their perception when crossing the road. This can lead to traffic accidents. In order to investigate the problem, field studies...