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Search results for: RISK CLASSES, FORECASTING
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Good practices in requirements, project and risk managment in educational IT projects
PublicationOne can find many learning aids and simulations of physical phenomena on the market - provided as a standalone application or as part of an educational package. However, only a few of them allow for the building of interactive experiments: experiments similar to those that should be conducted in physics laboratories at schools. Gdańsk University of Technology decided to fill this market niche by designing and constructing a set...
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Advanced Bayesian study on inland navigational risk of remotely controlled autonomous ship
PublicationThe arise of autonomous ships has necessitated the development of new risk assessment techniques and methods. This study proposes a new framework for navigational risk assessment of remotely controlled Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). This framework establishes a set of risk influencing factors affecting safety of navigation of a remotely-controlled MASS. Next, model parameters are defined based on the risk factors, and...
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Analysis and Risk Evaluation on the Case of Alteration, Revitalization and Conversion of a Historic Building in Gdańsk
PublicationEach investment plan, including the one concerning a building, is exposed to the consequences of various types of threats taking place. Therefore, in the case of some large-scale, atypical and complicated building ventures, some actions included in the procedure of risk management should be taken. This will allow for the risk to be eliminated or limited. While preparing a building venture, an investor does not possess full information...
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Positive Risk of Creativity in Software Projects: an Expected Result, a Threat or an Opportunity?
PublicationPositive risk of creativity appears when there is an excess of creativity. This paper aims at exploring the concept of positive risk of creativity in software projects. It presents a taxonomy of positive risks as well as case studies of positive risks in diploma software projects. It also attempts to answer the question whether positive risks should be treated as expected results of applying creativity process, or they cause additional...
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Continuation classes for a non-linear Leslie population model with 3 varying parameters
Open Research DataThis dataset contains selected results of rigorous numerical computations conducted in the framework of the research described in the paper "A database schema for the analysis of global dynamics of multiparameter systems" by Z. Arai, W. Kalies, H. Kokubu, K. Mischaikow, H. Oka, P. Pilarczyk, published in SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems (SIADS),...
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Continuation classes for a non-linear Leslie population model with 2 varying parameters
Open Research DataThis dataset contains selected results of rigorous numerical computations conducted in the framework of the research described in the paper "A database schema for the analysis of global dynamics of multiparameter systems" by Z. Arai, W. Kalies, H. Kokubu, K. Mischaikow, H. Oka, P. Pilarczyk, published in SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems (SIADS),...
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Towards the Development of a Risk Model for Unmanned Vessels Design and Operations
PublicationAn unmanned merchant vessel seems to be escaping from the stage of idea exploration. Once the concept proofs its safety, it may become a part of maritime reality. Although the safety aspect of such a ship has been addressed by a handful of scholars, the problem remains open. This is mainly due to lack of knowledge regarding actual operational circumstances and design of unmanned ships, which are yet to be developed. In the...
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Metals in the environment as risk factors for infectious diseases: gaps and opportunities
PublicationThis chapter aims to provide insights into current knowledge and gaps in our understanding of the influence that trace metals in the environment have on the pathogenesis of infectious diseases. By reducing immune function, trace metal deficiencies may substantially contribute to the global burden of diarhea, pneumonia, and malaria. Improved methods and biomarkers for assessing the risk of trace metals deficiencies and toxicities...
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A framework for onboard assessment and monitoring of flooding risk due to open watertight doors for passenger ships
PublicationPost-accident safety of ships is governed by damage stability, affected by watertight subdivisions which limit accidental flooding. This is important for passenger ships with watertight doors (WTDs) often fitted in the bulkheads. Awareness of the ship flooding risk due to open WTDs and the conditions under which the associated risk level changes are prerequisites for proactive risk mitigation. Accident risk is often expressed as...
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Folate/homocysteine metabolism and lung cancer risk among smokers
PublicationBackground: Folate and homocysteine are involved in DNA synthesis and methylation processes, which are deregulated during carcinogenesis. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between folate/homocysteine concentrations, the functional polymorphisms of folate/homocysteine genes and lung cancer risk among cigarette smokers. Study design: The study included 132 lung cancer patients and 396 controls from...
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Risk Management in "Agile" methodologies using the example of Scrum and the IBM Rational Team Concert tool
PublicationProject risk is one of the key areas which should be subjected to a thorough analysis in any IT project. Project managers undertake steps to minimize risks, both in terms of organization (matching people to tasks or roles) as well as in terms of technology (using appropriate tools for the management and execution of tasks). Every method of project management defines and describes the processes and techniques related to knowledge...
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Hydrological Forecasting in the Oder Estuary using a Three- Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model
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The influence of electromagnetic pollution on living organisms – historical trends and forecasting changes
PublicationCurrent technologies have become a source of omnipresent electromagnetic pollution from generated electromagnetic fields and resulting electromagnetic radiation. In many cases this pollution is much stronger than any natural sources of electromagnetic fields or radiation. Wireless and radio communication, electric power transmission or devices in daily use such as smartphones, tablets and portable computers every day expose people...
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Artificial-Hand Technology—Current State of Knowledge in Designing and Forecasting Changes
PublicationThe subject of human-hand versatility has been intensively investigated for many years. Emerging robotic constructions change continuously in order to mimic natural mechanisms as accurately as possible. Such an attitude is motivated by the demand for humanoid robots with sophisticated end effectors and highly biomimic prostheses. This paper provides wide analysis of more than 80 devices that have been created over the last 40 years....
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Hierarchical influence diagrams for incorporating human and organizational factors in risk assessment of hazardous industrial systems
PublicationArtykuł dotyczy podstawowych zagadnień związanych z czynnikami organizacyjnymi i ludzkim w analizie ryzyka złożonych systemów przemysłowych. Analizuje się podobieństwa i różnice pomiędzy hierarchicznymi diagramami wpływu i hierarchicznym procesem analizy decyzyjnej i na tej podstawie proponuje się uogólnione podejście do rozważanej analizy decyzyjnej uwzględniające dane rozmyte.
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Forecasting energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission of Vietnam by prognostic models based on explainable machine learning and time series
PublicationThis study assessed the usefulness of algorithms in estimating energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Viet- nam, in which the training dataset was used to train the models linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and AdaBoost, allowing them to comprehend the patterns and relationships between population, GDP, and carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption. The results revealed that random forest, XGBoost, and AdaBoost...
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Functional safety in the context of risk appraisal criteria and cost-benefit analysis
PublicationRozdział przedstawia aktualne zagadnienia dotyczące analizy kosztów i efektów rozwiązań związanych z bezpieczeństwem na przykładzie systemów elektrycznych, elektronicznych i programowalnych elektronicznych (E/E/PE) pełniących funkcje sterowania i zabezpieczeń w obiektach podwyższonego ryzyka. Podkreśla się znaczenie kryteriów związanych z bezpieczeństwem, takich jak tolerowalność ryzyka (TOR) w kontekście analizy kosztów i efektów...
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Volatility modelling and market risk analysis 2024/2025
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Classification of Urban Regeneration Participants as a Basis for Identification of Construction Investment's Risk Sources
PublicationOn the basis of the conducted research it can be concluded that the majority of the existing urban regeneration problems are revealed by the lack of an in-depth analysis of sources and risk factors. For the above reasons, the subject of this study is classification of urban regeneration's participants as a basis for identification of construction investment's risk sources. The research methodology is based on an in-depth analysis...
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How to evaluate methods used in chemical laboratories in terms of the total chemical risk? – a ChlorTox Scale
PublicationReliable assessment of the health and environmental risk associated with the use of chemicals is critical to ob- jectively evaluate the greenness and whiteness of an analytical method. An objective and useful way of risk assessment should take into account all the relevant properties of used substances, their actual amounts needed for application of the method, and quantify the assessment result using a standardized unit. This...
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Development of factors and measurement of personnel risk in the marketing services of four Polish pharmaceutical companies
Open Research DataThis text contains the presentation and analysis of research results in relation to four companies (A, B, C, D), according to the adopted case study method.Further considerations should be preceded by the assumption that personal risk factors often affect the level of this risk in various directions, so their final impact is the result of the shaping...
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The KLC Cultures Synergy for Organizational Agility. Trust, Risk-Taking Attitude, and Critical Thinking as Moderators
PublicationOrganizational agility is visible in organizational change adaptability, and it is based on the development of dynamic capabilities, strategic sensitivity of leaders, accuracy and timing of decision-making, learning aptitude, flexibility in thinking and acting, and smooth resource flow across organizations, including the knowledge resource. In such a context, this study aimed to expose how the knowledge, learning, and collaboration...
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The linkage between knowledge risk management and organizational performance
PublicationThe purpose of this study is to examine the effect of knowledge risk management (KRM) on organizational performance, with measures considered as “softer” measures of performance, i.e. innovativeness, responsiveness, sustainability, and agility. Data were collected using an online questionnaire sent to private and public orga- nizations located all over the world. The analysis and hypotheses testing were performed using structural...
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A Model for Risk Assessment and Management of Construction Projects in Urban Conditions
PublicationThe authors are seeking new methods for improving the efficiency of the investments associated with the maintenance and operation of existing civil engineering structures. It is demonstrated how the knowledge about the elements of construction and operation phases and their relationships, combined with monitoring data can be used for more effective management of the risks associated with civil engineering projects. The methodology...
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Towards an analysis framework for operational risk coupling mode: A case from MASS navigating in restricted waters
PublicationMaritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASSs) constitute highly interconnected and tightly coupled multistate systems. Incorporating the coupling effects of both interactions and dependencies is centrally important to ensure navigation safety of MASSs. This paper proposes a framework for examining the coupling effects in the operational modes (OM) of MASSs. Failure Modes (FMs) of MASSs related to interactions with the environment and...
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Merton-type default risk and financial performance: the dynamic panel moderation of firm size
PublicationPurpose – The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation of firm size. Design/methodology/approach – This study utilizes a total of 1,500 firm-year observations from 2013 to 2018 using dynamic panel data approach of generalized method of moments to test the relationship between default risk and financial...
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Physical activity and childbirth classes during a pregnancy and the level of perceived stress and depressive symptoms in women after childbirth
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Oscillating water-oil-water liquid membrane systems for molecular recognition of substances belonging to diferent taste classes
PublicationBadano oscylacje róznicy potencjału elektrochemicznego miedzy fazami wodnymi. Jedna faza wodna zawiera kationowy lub anionowy surfaktant podczas gdy w drugiej fazie wodnej znajduje sie substancja odpowiedzialna za smak. Dwie fazy wodne sa rozdzielone faza olejową. Oscylacje były analizowane poprzez konstrukcje portretów fazowych uzywając metody opoznienia czasowego. Kształt portretów fazowych jest rozny dla oscylatorów z kationowym...
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Selecting cost-effective risk control option for advanced maritime operations; Integration of STPA-BN-Influence diagram
PublicationAdvanced maritime operations, such as remote pilotage, are vulnerable to new emergent risks due to increased system complexity and a multitude of interactions. Thus, maritime researchers this decade have combined Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) and Bayesian Network (BN) to effectively manage these risks. Although these methods are effective in identifying hazards and analyzing risk levels, none of the STPA-BN studies...
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THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE INSURANCE RISK
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Smoking and cardiovascular risk
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Exploring the relationship between investment choices, cognitive abilities risk attitudes and financial literacy
PublicationPurpose The main purpose of this study is to investigate the investment choices' relationship with cognitive abilities, risk aversion, risky investment intentions, subjective financial literacy and objective financial literacy. Design/methodology/approach To examine the relationship, two investment choices were given to 256 subjects from Pakistan. Questionnaire had total 20 questions for measuring five variables. To review this...
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The risk assessment of adverse events of nursing activities as the element of quality management in healhcare
PublicationThe purpose of the paper is to present MedCARVER+Shock method and Pareto analysis and its usability for the risk assessment of adverse events of nursing activities. 888 activities carried out by all 190 nurses working at the District Hospital X located in Poland were taken into account. During the research the qualitative approach was used. As the result sixteen groups of nursing activities causing the highest risk of adverse events...
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Prognostic and diagnostic capabilities of OOBN in assessing investment risk of complex construction projects
PublicationModelling decision problems using Bayesian networks is extremely valuable especially in case of issues related to uncertainty; it is also very helpful in constructing and understanding visual representation of the elements and their relations. This approach facilitates subsequent application of Bayesian networks, however there can be situations where using simple Bayesian networks is impractical or even ineffective. The aim of...
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Application of BN in Risk Diagnostics Arising from the Degree of Urban Regeneration Area Degradation
PublicationUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Ischemic stroke in general practice - risk factors, prognosis - prospective single center study
PublicationBackground. Ischemic stroke is one of the leading causes of death and disability in Poland, in the European Union and in the United States. Awareness related to the risk factors, particularly the modifiable ones, is of crucial importance in general practice and may improve early and long-term prognoses. Objectives. The aim of this study was to assess the risk factors and half-year survival rate in patients with ischemic stroke...
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Environmental Risk Assessment of WWII Shipwreck pollution
PublicationThe pollution of the sea is a global problem that has arisen as a consequence of the industrialization of the world and the intense transportation of crude oil and the products of its refinement. As sailing vessels were replaced by motor propelled ships towards the end of the 19th century, a new source of sea water pollution came into being. Every emergency involving a tanker carrying crude oil and its products is a potential source...
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Preeclampsia Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods Trained on Synthetic Data
PublicationThis paper describes a research study that investigates the use of machine learning algorithms on synthetic data to classify the risk of developing preeclampsia by pregnant women. Synthetic datasets were generated based on parameter distributions from three real patient studies. Four models were compared: XGBoost, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, and Explainable Boosting Machines (EBM). The study found that the XGBoost...
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Risk Diagnosis and Management with BBN for Civil Engineering Projects during Construction and Operation
PublicationThe authors demonstrate how expert knowledge about the construction and operation phases combined with monitoring data can be utilized for the diagnosis and management of risks typical to large civil engineering projects. The methodology chosen for estimating the probabilities of risk elements is known as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). Using a BBN model one can keep on updating the risk event probabilities as the new evidence...
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Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk
PublicationThe process of decision-making in public procurement of construction projects during the preparation and implementation phases ought to be supported by risk identification, assessment, and management. In risk assessment one has to take into account factors that lead to risk events (background info), as well as the information about the risk symptoms (monitoring info). Typically once the risks have been assessed a decision-maker...
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Flood risk assessment for office and services building Alchemia II at Al. Grunwaldzka 409 in Gdansk.
PublicationThe aim of the study is to assess the risk of flood from natural meteorological and hy-drological phenomena, for office and services building Alchemia II in Gdansk at Al. Grun-waldzka 409. The project includes the analysis of potential sources of floods in Gdansk re-garding the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Gdansk, the Vistula River basin and excessive rainfall and snowmelt waters being a significant element of hydrological processes...
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News that Moves the Market: DSEX-News Dataset for Forecasting DSE Using BERT
PublicationStock market is a complex and dynamic industry that has always presented challenges for stakeholders and investors due to its unpredictable nature. This unpredictability motivates the need for more accurate prediction models. Traditional prediction models have limitations in handling the dynamic nature of the stock market. Additionally, previous methods have used less relevant data, leading to suboptimal performance. This study...
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Application of time-series-cross-section data in case of sale forecasting in an enterprise
PublicationW artykule wskazano możliwości wykorzystania danych przestrzenno-czasowych do prognozowania sprzedaży w przedsiębiorstwie. Przedstawiono różne podejścia do prognozowania ekonometrycznego przy użyciu tego typu danych. Wyznaczono krótkookresowe prognozy sprzedaży benzyny bezołowiowej Pb95 w przekroju województw oraz dokonano oceny ich jakości przy użyciu mierników ex-post. Dwie najdokładniejsze metody prognozowania wykorzystano do...
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A Proposed Machine Learning Model for Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Buildings
PublicationTraffic-induced vibrations may cause various damages to buildings located near the road, including cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real buildings are costly and laborious. Therefore the aim of the research is to propose the original numerical algorithm which allows us to predict, with high probability, the nega-tive dynamic impact of traffic-induced...
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Quantitative risk assessment of new ship designs in damage conditions
PublicationThe paper is devoted to safety of ships in damage conditions. The novel contribution of the paper is connected with a new Multi-Task ship (MT-ship) design at the preliminary stage of design. There are a few problems at the preliminary stage that should be considered. One problem is connected with if the quantitative risk-based method is a reliable and formal method for safety assessment of such the new design (MT-ship) in damage...
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Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis of Cinan Feizuo Flood Protection Area, Huaihe River Basin
PublicationThis study evaluated multiple aspects of flood risks and effects on the Cinan Feizuo flood protection area in the Huaihe River basin. Flooding remains a leading problem for infrastructure, especially in urban, residential areas of the region. Effective flood modeling for urbanized floodplains is challenging, but MIKE (ID-2D) is paramount for analyzing and quantifying the risk in the vulnerable region. The Saint-Venant equation...
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Assessment of the Relationship between the Shape of the Lateral Meniscus and the Risk of Extrusion Based on MRI Examination of the Knee Joint
PublicationBackground Meniscus extrusion is a serious and relatively frequent clinical problem. For this reason the role of different risk factors for this pathology is still the subject of debate. The goal of this study was to verify the results of previous theoretical work, based on the mathematical models, regarding a relationship between the cross-section shape of the meniscus and the risk of its extrusion. Materials and Methods Knee...
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OCCUPATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT USING THE RISK SCORE METHOD DURING GEODETIC MEASUREMENTS
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Risk factors assessment and risk prediction models in lung cancer screening candidates
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Ryzyko statystyczne a ryzyko rzeczywistego pacjenta = Statistical risk and risk of the real patient
PublicationDzięki wieloletnim obserwacjom populacji ludzkiej udało się zidentyfikować czynniki ryzyka choroby wieńcowej. Najważniejsze z nich to: wiek, płeć, obciążenie genetyczne, palenie papierosów, stężenie cholesterolu we krwi, ciśnienie tętnicze, brak aktywności fizycznej, nadwaga, obecność cukrzycy. Obserwacje prospektywne populacji dostarczyły danych do opracowania modeli, które określają relacje między wartościami czynników ryzyka...