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Search results for: NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL METEOROLOGICAL DATA
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Numerical weather prediction - data fusion to GIS systems and potential applications
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Operational Enhancement of Numerical Weather Prediction with Data from Real-time Satellite Images
PublicationNumerical weather prediction (NWP) is a rapidly expanding field of science, which is related to meteorology, remote sensing and computer science. Authors present methods of enhancing WRF EMS (Weather Research and Forecast Environmental Modeling System) weather prediction system using data from satellites equipped with AMSU sensor (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit). The data is acquired with Department of Geoinformatics’ ground...
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Integration and verification of meteorological observations and NWP model data for the local GNSS tomography
PublicationGNSS meteorology applies the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) to derive information about the state of the atmosphere (particularly troposphere). The tomography is one of the methods used in GNSS meteorology. The input data of GNSS tomography are the signal troposphere delays, results of GNSS data processing and additionally meteorological observations and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models data. Different types...
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GIS Solution for Weather Forecast Data Analysis
PublicationIn this paper authors present the GIS system for the analysis of the numerical weather prediction data. This kind of data has multidimensional character (three dimensions and time) and its analysis should consider all the available factors. Proposed GIS system consists of RASDAMAN application with implemented OLAP cube mechanism, which enables the user to process data in the spatial-time domain. It also simplifies the meteorological...
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Prediction of consumer electricity needs based on Internet weather forecasts
PublicationElectrical energy is considered both as an important driver for producing and transporting goods in companies, as well as a good in itself which requires planning and management for generating and delivering it to consumers in proper time and amounts. Weather information can be considered to convey part of the data on energy delivery needs of consumers. Free meteorological data sources on the Web do not offer consistent data to...
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Evaluation and application of data from road weather stations for winter maintenance management
PublicationThe paper presents the analysis of road weather data from meteorological stations located at the Polish national roads of Pomerania District during the impact of winter conditions. Presented issue is particularly important from the point of view the problem of winter maintenance and especially for prediction and assurance of quality of asphalt pavement surface ie. resistance to low temperature cracking or risk of glazed frost....
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High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
PublicationDue to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model....
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REVIEW OF WEATHER FORECAST SERVICES FOR SHIP ROUTING PURPOSES
PublicationWeather data is nowadays used in a variety of navigational and ocean engineering research problems: from the obvious ones like voyage planning and routing of sea-going vessels, through the analysis of stability-related phenomena, to detailed modelling of ships’ manoeuvrability for collision avoidance purposes. Apart from that, weather forecasts are essential for passenger cruises and fishing vessels that want to avoid the risk...
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Calibration of precipitation estimation algorithm with particular emphasis on the Pomeranian region using high performance computing
PublicationFast and accurate precipitation estimation is an important element of remote atmosphere monitoring, as it allows, for example, to correct short-term weather forecasts and the prediction of several types of meteorological threats. The paper presents methodology for calibrating precipitation estimation algorithm based on MSG SEVIRI sensor data, and Optimal Cloud Analysis product available via EumetCast transmission. Calibration is...
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The impact of initial and boundary conditions on severe weather event simulations using a high-resolution WRF model. Case study of the derecho event in Poland on 11 August 2017
PublicationPrecise simulations of severe weather events are a challenge in the era of changing climate. By performing simulations correctly and accurately, these phenomena can be studied and better understood. In this paper, we have verified how different initial and boundary conditions affect the quality of simulations performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). For our analysis, we chose...
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Simulations of the Derecho Event in Poland of 11th August 2017 Using WRF Model
PublicationThis series contains datasets related to the forecasting of a severe weather event, a derecho, in Poland on 11 August 2017. The simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2.1 with different initial and boundary conditions of the pressure and model levels derived from 5 global models: Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), European Centre for Medium-Range...
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Integration Data Model of the Bathymetric Monitoring System for Shallow Waterbodies Using UAV and USV Platforms
PublicationChanges in the seafloor relief are particularly noticeable in shallow waterbodies (at depths up to several metres), where they are of significance for human safety and environmental protection, as well as for which the highest measurement accuracy is required. The aim of this publication is to present the integration data model of the bathymetric monitoring system for shallow waterbodies using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and...
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Mathematical Modeling of Ice Dynamics as a Decision Support Tool in River Engineering
PublicationThe prediction of winter flooding is a complicated task since it is affected by many meteorological and hydraulic factors. Typically, information on river ice conditions is based on historical observations, which are usually incomplete. Recently, data have been supplemented by information extracted from satellite images. All the above mentioned factors provide a good background of the characteristics of ice processes, but are not...
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Impact of adverse winter weather on traffic flow
PublicationThe paper aims to analyse the impact of adverse weather in winter on traffic flow using data from a dual carriageway section of an express road located in Gdansk. For the purposes of the analysis, traffic and meteorological data were collected for a period of 15 months in 2014-2015 and aggregated to 5 minutes intervals. The impact of winter weather conditions on traffic flow was assessed by comparing aggregated traffic stream parameters...
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Analysis of GNSS sensed precipitable water vapour and tropospheric gradients during the derecho event in Poland of 11th August 2017
PublicationNowadays, one of the techniques that meets the increasing requirements of meteorologist in terms of monitoring of severe weather events is global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), which can provide information about the tropospheric state independently of the weather conditions and even in real time. In this paper we present the usage of GNSS sensed tropospheric data to monitor sudden and intense weather events. Our analyses...
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Numerical Analysis of an Impact of Planned Location of Sewage Discharge on Natura 2000 Areas – The Dead Vistula Region Case Study
PublicationThis article presents results of an analysis of impact of a designed discharge of contaminated water into the Dead Vistula (Wisła Martwa) in the region of the Isthmus (Przesmyk) with the aim of determination of a possible effect of the pollution onto protected areas of Natura 2000 (bird habitats and sites, especially the Bird Paradise – Ptasi Raj) nature reserve. The analysis was conducted on the basis of the two-dimensional modelling...
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MESOSCALE FUNCTIONS OF GPS SLANT DELAY
PublicationThe paper presents a computer module for GPS slant delay determination using data from COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) mesoscale non-hydrostatic model of the atmosphere which is run on IA64 Feniks computer cluster in the Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy of the Military University of Technology. The slant delay is the result of integrating the ray (eikonal) equation for the spatial function...
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An Intelligent Approach to Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using Deep Neural Networks
PublicationIn this paper, an intelligent approach to the Short-Term Wind Power Prediction (STWPP) problem is considered, with the use of various types of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). The impact of the prediction time horizon length on accuracy, and the influence of temperature on prediction effectiveness have been analyzed. Three types of DNNs have been implemented and tested, including: CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks), GRU (Gated Recurrent...
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Towards Improving Optimised Ship Weather Routing
PublicationThe aim of the paper is to outline a project focusing on the development of a new type of ship weather routing solution with improved uncertainty handling, through better estimation of ship performance and responses to sea conditions. Ensemble forecasting is considered to take into account the uncertainty levels that are typical of operations in a stochastic environment. Increased accuracy of weather prediction is achieved through...
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ANALYSIS OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THE USE OF VOLUME-DELAY FUNCTIONS IN THE PLANNING MODULE OF THE TRISTAR SYSTEM
PublicationTravel time is a measure commonly used for traffic flow modelling and traffic control. It also helps to evaluate the quality of traffic control systems in urban areas. Traffic control systems that use traffic models to predict changes and disruptions in vehicle flows have to use vehicle speed-prediction models. Travel time estimation studies the effects of traffic volumes on a street section at an average speed. The TRISTAR Integrated...
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Results of the application of tropospheric corrections from different troposphere models for precise GPS rapid static positioning
PublicationIn many surveying applications, determination of accurate heights is of significant interest. The delay caused by the neutral atmosphere is one of the main factors limiting the accuracy of GPS positioning and affecting mainly the height coordinate component rather than horizontal ones. Estimation of the zenith total delay is a commonly used technique for accounting for the tropospheric delay in static positioning. However, in the...
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Closer Look at the Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation under Distributional Shift
PublicationWhile recent computer vision algorithms achieve impressive performance on many benchmarks, they lack robustness - presented with an image from a different distribution, (e.g. weather or lighting conditions not considered during training), they may produce an erroneous prediction. Therefore, it is desired that such a model will be able to reliably predict its confidence measure. In this work, uncertainty estimation for the task...
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Stormwater runoff in the urbanized coastal basin of Gdańsk Urbanized basin of Gdańsk
PublicationAnthropopressure strongly affects the primal water cycle. Alternation of the natural basins imposes changes of drainage patterns, reduction of bioretention, infiltration and base flow. As a result the overland flow predominates and greater runoff rates flow into storm water collection systems and reservoirs. Moreover changing climatic conditions increase the frequency of rapid extreme weather events. Infrastructures of urban areas...
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Ionosphere variability I: Advances in observational, monitoring and detection capabilities
PublicationThe paper aims to review recent advances regarding the observational and monitoring capabilities of the ionization conditions in the Earth's upper atmosphere. The analysis spans both ground and space-based experiments, seeking for new installations and/or missions, new or upgraded instrumentation and/or observational network establishments as means for advancing current understanding and prediction ability of the ionosphere variability....
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Machine learning applied to acoustic-based road traffic monitoring
PublicationThe motivation behind this study lies in adapting acoustic noise monitoring systems for road traffic monitoring for driver’s safety. Such a system should recognize a vehicle type and weather-related pavement conditions based on the audio level measurement. The study presents the effectiveness of the selected machine learning algorithms in acoustic-based road traffic monitoring. Bases of the operation of the acoustic road traffic...
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Machine learning applied to acoustic-based road traffic monitoring
PublicationThe motivation behind this study lies in adapting acoustic noise monitoring systems for road traffic monitoring for driver’s safety. Such a system should recognize a vehicle type and weather-related pavement conditions based on the audio level measurement. The study presents the effectiveness of the selected machine learning algorithms in acoustic-based road traffic monitoring. Bases of the operation of the acoustic road traffic...
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Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources in a Young Glacial Multi-Aquifer System
PublicationThe aim of this study was to evaluate the trends of climate change on the Kashubian Lake District and to determine the impact of expected trends on groundwater resources. The analysis of trends in temperature and precipitation was conducted for the six-decade history of meteorological measurements at the weather station in Koscierzyna. The analysis shows the trend of temperature increase of +0.0182ºC/year. The highest increase...
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Stormwater and snowmelt runoff storage control and flash flood hazard forecasting in the urbanized coastal basin.
PublicationCity of Gdańsk is located in a coastal region where changing climatic conditions increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Developing urbanization affects the hydrology of natural basins by simplification of the drainage system and reduction of infiltration and base flow. Consequently greater runoff rates flow into storm water collection systems, reservoirs and surrounding water bodies. Not only infrastructures of urban...
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USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR PREDICTING SHIP FUEL CONSUMPTION
PublicationIn marine vessel operations, fuel costs are major operating costs which affect the overall profitability of the maritime transport industry. The effective enhancement of using ship fuel will increase ship operation efficiency. Since ship fuel consumption depends on different factors, such as weather, cruising condition, cargo load, and engine condition, it is difficult to assess the fuel consumption pattern for various types...
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ASSESSMENT OF UNDERPOWER ED PROPULSION MACHINERY IN ELECTRICALLY DRIVEN SMALL INLAND WATERWAY PASSENGER SHIPS FROM CLASSIFICATION SOCIETY POINT OF View
PublicationPaper presents short operat ional a nd engineering analysis of underpowered propulsion in small electrically propelled small inland passenger ships. There is evidence that in certain weather conditions the phenomena of added aerodynamic resistance of small water crafts may have serious influence on their speed and manoeuvrability. Existing regulations like class societies rules for ship classification and construction or EU Directive 2006/87/EC do...
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Assessment of under power ed propulsion machinery in electrically driven small inland waterway passenger ships from classification society point of view
PublicationPaper presents short operat ional a nd engineering analysis of underpowered propulsion in small electrically propelled small inland passenger ships. There is evidence that in certain weather conditions the phenomena of added aerodynamic resistance of small water crafts may have seriou s influence on their speed and manoeuvrability. Existing regulations like class societies rules for ship classification and construction or EU Directive 2006/87/EC do...
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Dew and hoarfrost frequency, formation efficiency and chemistry in Wroclaw, Poland
PublicationThis article presents the results of a research study concerning a comparison of frequency, formation efficiency and basic physico-chemical properties of dew and hoarfrost in urban conditions. Longer than two-year series of measurements was carried out from 1 February 2008 to 10 March 2010 in Wroclaw, Poland. Sampling of atmospheric deposits was made by means of insulated plain passive radiative condensers, which allowed to collect...
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Weather Routing System Architecture Using Onboard Data Collection and Route Optimisation
PublicationThis paper describes the architecture of a weather routing system consisting of two key elements: onboard monitoring and route optimiser sub-systems. The former is responsible for collecting various onboard measurements, such as current ship position or ship motion variables. These data, when gathered and processed, are then used for fine-tuning a ship model. The model, together with weather forecasts, is utilised by a multi-objective...
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NUMERICAL ESTIMATION OF HULL HYDRODYNAMIC DERIVATIVES IN SHIP MANOUVERING PREDICTION
PublicationOperating in crowded waterways pose a risk of accidents and disasters due to maneuvering limitations of the ship. In order to predict ship’s maneuvering characteristics at the design stage, model tests are often executed as the most accurate prediction tool. Two approaches can be distinguished here: free running model tests and numerical simulations based on planar motion model with the use of hydrodynamic derivatives obtained...
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Analysis of Rainfall Data of Gdansk Meteorological Station
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono wyniki analizy danych opadowych z okresu 51 lat (1951-2008) ze stacji meteorologicznej w Gdańsku. Analizę przeprowadzono zarówno dla sum rocznych opadów jak i sezonowych i miesięcznych. Dokonano również analizy maksymalnych sum dobowych opadów dla każdego miesiąca, badając ich zmienność w wieloleciu.
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NUMERICAL MODEL QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND TURBINE SUPPORTING STRUCTURE BASED ON EXPERIMENTAL DATA
PublicationAs a structure degrades some changes in its dynamical behavior can be observed, and inversely, observation and evaluation of these dynamical changes of the structure can provide information of structural state of the object. Testing of the real structure, besides of being costly, can cover only limited working states. It is particularly considerable in case of hardly accessible, and randomly/severely dynamically loaded offshore...
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Personalized prediction of the secondary oocytes number after ovarian stimulation: A machine learning model based on clinical and genetic data
PublicationControlled ovarian stimulation is tailored to the patient based on clinical parameters but estimating the number of retrieved metaphase II (MII) oocytes is a challenge. Here, we have developed a model that takes advantage of the patient’s genetic and clinical characteristics simultaneously for predicting the stimulation outcome. Sequence variants in reproduction-related genes identified by next-generation sequencing were matched...
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Numerical Estimation of Hull Hydrodynamic Derivatives in Ship Maneuvering Prediction
PublicationPrediction of the maneuvering characteristics of the ship at the design stage can be done by means of model tests, computational simulations or a combination of both. The model tests can be realized as direct simulation of the standard maneuvers with the free running model, which gives the most accurate results, but is also the least affordable as it requires very large tank or natural lake, as well as complex equipment of the...
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Ship weather routing optimization with dynamic constraints based on reliable synchronous roll prediction
PublicationShip routing process taking into account weather conditions is a constrained multi-objective optimization problem and it should consider various optimization criteria and constraints. Formulation of a stability-related, dynamic route optimization constraint is presented in this paper. One of the key objectives of a cross ocean sailing is finding a compromise between ship safety and economics of operation. This compromise should...
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Combined numerical and experimental approach to determine numerical model of abdominal scaffold
PublicationA proper junction of the prosthesis and the abdominal wall is important in successful hernia repair. The number of tacks should be balanced to assure appropriate mesh fixation and not to induce post-operative pain. Numerical simulations help to find this balance. The study is aimed at creating a proper numerical model of a knitted surgical mesh subjected to boundary conditions and load occurring in the abdominal cavity. Continuous,...
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A concept of heterogeneous numerical model of concrete for GPR simulations
PublicationThe Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) method, which is increasingly being used in the non-destructive diagnostics of reinforced concrete structures, often needs more accurate interpretation tools for analysis of experimental data. Recently, there has been growing interest in developing of various numerical models for exhaustive understanding of GPR data. This paper presents the concept of a heterogeneous numerical model of concrete,...
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Algorithms for Ship Movement Prediction for Location Data Compression
PublicationDue to safety reasons, the movement of ships on the sea, especially near the coast should be tracked, recorded and stored. However, the amount of vessels which trajectories should be tracked by authorized institutions, often in real time, is usually huge. What is more, many sources of vessels position data (radars, AIS) produces thousands of records describing route of each tracked object, but lots of that records are correlated...
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Identification of ship’s hull mathematical model with numerical methods
PublicationThe modern maritime industry is moving toward the development of technology that will allow for full or partial autonomy of ship operation. This innovation places high demands on ship performance prediction techniques at the design stage. The researchwork presented in the article is related to the design stage of the ship and concerns methods for prognosis and evaluation of the specific operational condition of the ship, namely...
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Experimental Validation of Numerical Model within a Flow Configuration of the Model Kaplan Turbine
PublicationThis paper investigates validation of flow within a model Kaplan turbine. This includes comparison of various turbulence models and their influence on torque and power generated by the turbine. Numerical results were compared with experimental data.
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Prediction of the fatigue lifetime of PUR structural elements using a combined experimental-numerical approach
PublicationThis paper presents a method for estimating the fatigue life of polyurethane elastomeric components. A rubber replacement - polyurethane of hardness 80ShA commonly used in vibration damping systems, for example, in motor vehicle suspensions, was used for the study. A metal-rubber bushing component was selected for analysis, and numerical analysis was carried out along with a fatigue model proposal based on a modification of the...
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Diurnal variability of atmospheric water vapour, precipitation and cloud top temperature across the global tropics derived from satellite observations and GNSS technique
PublicationThe diurnal cycle of convection plays an important role in clouds and water vapour distribution across the global tropics. In this study, we utilize integrated moisture derived from the global navigation satellite system (GNSS), satellite precipitation estimates from TRMM and merged infrared dataset to investigate links between variability in tropospheric moisture, clouds development and precipitation at a diurnal time scale. Over...
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Geographic Information System for Flood Hazard Analysis and Early Warning Using Numerical Weather Predictions
PublicationFloods are a phenomenon which causes significant losses of lives as well as property damage, which in turn severely impact the local economy. The nature of a flooding has been well researched, and several methods of flood hazard simulation have been established over the last decades. The current legislation in the European Union requires the Member States to create, maintain and update flood risk and hazard maps, as well as identify...
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Consumer Bankruptcy Prediction Using Balanced and Imbalanced Data
PublicationThis paper examines the usefulness of logit regression in forecasting the consumer bankruptcy of households using an imbalanced dataset. The research on consumer bankruptcy prediction is of paramount importance as it aims to build statistical models that can identify consumers in a difficult financial situation that may lead to consumer bankruptcy. In the face of the current global pandemic crisis, the future of household finances...
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Preeclampsia Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods Trained on Synthetic Data
PublicationThis paper describes a research study that investigates the use of machine learning algorithms on synthetic data to classify the risk of developing preeclampsia by pregnant women. Synthetic datasets were generated based on parameter distributions from three real patient studies. Four models were compared: XGBoost, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, and Explainable Boosting Machines (EBM). The study found that the XGBoost...
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numerical prediction of vortex generated by hydrofoil
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono wyniki obliczeń programami Fluent i Comet dla płata śruby napędowej. Pola prędkości oraz wirowość za płatem porównano z wynikami pomiarów (LDA- Laser Doppler Anemometry) w tunelu kawitacyjnym Centrum Techik Okrętowych (CTO). Przedstawiono wpływ adaptacji siatki wg różnych kryteriów (lokalnej wirowości lub prędkości) na zgodność wyników obliczeń z danymi eksperymentalnymi.