Search results for: UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
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Uncertainty in measuring the power spectrum density of a random signal
PublicationPrzedstawiono sposób oszacowania niepewności wyznaczania gęstości widmowej mocy przebiegu losowego. Przeprowadzono ocenę niepewności estymacji gęstości widmowej mocy biorąc pod uwagę propagację niepewności związanej z rejestracją pojedynczej próbki sygnału w algorytmie cyfrowego przetwarzania sygnału oraz błąd obciążenia estymatora wynikający z zastosowanego modelu matematycznego wielkości wyznaczanej. Wyprowadzono zależności na...
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Trust-Based Model for the Assessment of the Uncertainty of Measurements in Hybrid IoT Networks
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to introduce a NUT model (NUT: network-uncertainty-trust) that aids the decrease of the uncertainty of measurements in autonomous hybrid Internet of Things sensor networks. The problem of uncertainty in such networks is a consequence of various operating conditions and varied quality of measurement nodes, making statistical approach less successful. This paper presents a model for decreasing the uncertainty...
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Cryptocurrencies as a Speculative Asset: How Much Uncertainty is Included in Cryptocurrency Price?
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between uncertainty indices (Geopolitical Uncertainty Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index) and cryptocurrencies. This study evaluated the behavior of cryptocurrencies with the evolution of uncertainties (GPU, EPU) on returns and volatility in terms of safe heaven as in traditional specualtive assets it increases their volaitility and reduces risk. For this purpose,...
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Validation of a sampling procedure
PublicationEach step of the analytical procedure influences the final results in a significant way. In the majority of cases the analytical procedure encompasses sampling because the analysis of the entire object (material) is usually not possible. Thus it is necessary to include the uncertainty related to sampling procedure in the uncertainty budget calculations. This paper describes two basic ways of estimating the sampling uncertainty,...
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Advanced sensitivity analysis of the impact of the temporal distribution and intensity of rainfall on hydrograph parameters in urban catchments
PublicationKnowledge of the variability of the hydrograph of outflow from urban catchments is highly important for measurements and evaluation of the operation of sewer networks. Currently, hydrodynamic models are most frequently used for hydrograph modeling. Since a large number of their parameters have to be identified, there may be problems at the calibration stage. Hence, sensitivity analysis is used to limit the number of parameters....
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Closer Look at the Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation under Distributional Shift
PublicationWhile recent computer vision algorithms achieve impressive performance on many benchmarks, they lack robustness - presented with an image from a different distribution, (e.g. weather or lighting conditions not considered during training), they may produce an erroneous prediction. Therefore, it is desired that such a model will be able to reliably predict its confidence measure. In this work, uncertainty estimation for the task...
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Assessment of sources of uncertainty in macrophyte surveys and the consequences for river classification
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Quality of Analytical Results: Classifiying Errors and Estimating Measurement Uncertainty
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Ship weather routing featuring w-MOEA/D and uncertainty handling
PublicationThe paper presents a new version of evolutionary multi-objective weather routing (WR) for ships taking into account uncertainties of weather forecasts in route optimization. The method applies authors’ w-MOEA/D algorithm: MOEA/D framework incorporating Decision Maker’s (DM) preferences by means of w-dominance relation. Owing to this, DM preferences are taken into account throughout optimization, allowing the process to focus on...
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Multi-fidelity robust aerodynamic design optimization under mixed uncertainty
PublicationThe objective of this paper is to present a robust optimization algorithm for computationally efficient airfoil design under mixed (inherent and epistemic) uncertainty using a multi-fidelity approach. This algorithm exploits stochastic expansions derived from the Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC) technique to create surrogate models utilized in the optimization process. A combined NIPC expansion approach is used, where both...
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Accounting for the distributions of input quantities in the procedure for the measurement uncertainty evaluation when calibrating the goniometer
PublicationThe discords concerning the measurement uncertainty evaluation in the Guide to the Expressing of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and its Supplement 1 are considered. To overcome these discords, the authors of the paper propose to use the kurtosis method and the law of the propagation of the expanded uncertainty. Using the example of the goniometer calibration, the features of accounting for the distribution laws of input quantities...
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Sampling Strategies: Statistics of Sampling
PublicationEach step of the analytical procedure has a significant influence on the final result of the analysis. In the majority of cases the analytical procedure encompasses sampling because the analysis of the entire object (material) is usually not possible. Thus it is necessary to include the uncertainty related to sampling procedure in the uncertainty budget calculations. In the paper: the most important properties of the analysed...
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Analysis of the objects images on the sea using Dempster-Shafer Theory
PublicationThe paper presents the concept of using aerial and satellite imagery or images coming from the marine radar to identify and track vessels at sea. The acquired data were subjected to a highly advanced image analysis. The development of remote sensing techniques allows to gain a huge amount of data. These data are useful information source however usually we have to use different data mining methods to gain interested information....
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Determination of the uncertainty of mass flow measurement using the orifice for different values of the Reynolds number
PublicationStandard orifice flowmeters are widely used in the chemical and energy industry. Therefore, it is essential to know how accurate the measurements made with these instruments are. The paper presents an estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. The authors will present the influence of ranges of the Reynolds number on the estimated uncertainty, obtained on the basis of simulation and laboratory...
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Vector and Triangular Representations of Project Estimation Uncertainty: Effect of Gender on Usability
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Cash Flow Management in Small and Medium Enterprises in Times of Economic Uncertainty
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Observation Value Analysis – Integral Part of Bayesian Diagnostics
PublicationThe decision making process, in general, is understood as a process of selecting one of the available solutions to the problem. One of possible approaches supporting the process is Bayesian statistical decision theory providing a mathematical model to make decisions of a technical nature in conditions of uncertainty. Regarding above, a detailed subject of the research is to analyze the value of the observation, which is a part...
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Customization of UWB 3D-RTLS Based on the New Uncertainty Model of the AoA Ranging Technique
PublicationThe increased potential and effectiveness of Real-time Locating Systems (RTLSs) substantially influence their application spectrum. They are widely used, inter alia, in the industrial sector, healthcare, home care, and in logistic and security applications. The research aims to develop an analytical method to customize UWB-based RTLS, in order to improve their localization performance in terms of accuracy and precision. The analytical...
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Optimizing FSO networks resilient to adverse weather conditions by means of enhanced uncertainty sets
PublicationThis work deals with dimensioning of wireless mesh networks (WMN) composed of FSO (free space optics) links. Although FSO links realize broadband transmission at low cost, their drawback is sensitivity to adverse weather conditions causing transmission degradation on multiple links. Hence, designing such FSO networks requires an optimization model to find the cheapest configuration of link capacities that will be able to carry...
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Wireless Charging Station Design for Electric Scooters: Case Study Analysis
PublicationThis study proposes an example of a wireless charging station design for a small-scale vehicle available on the market. The article analyzes basic transmitter inverter topologies and their compensation methods in terms of flexibility of control, tolerance to uncertainty in positioning, and the possibility of decreasing the integration price. Our comprehensive analysis focuses on the battery voltage range, energy capacity, cost,...
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Estimating the uncertainty of discharge coefficient predicted for oblique side weir using Monte Carlo method
PublicationSide weir is a hydraulic structure, which is used in irrigation systems to divert some water from main to side channel. It is installed at the entrance of the side channel to control and measure passing water into the side channel. Many studies provided side weir water surface profile and coefficient of discharge to measure water discharge diverted into the side channel. These studies dealt with different side weir shapes (rectangular,...
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Raman Spectra Measurements for Chemical Identifications - Aspect of Uncertainty Sources and Reduction of Their Effects
PublicationRaman spectrometers enable fast and non-contact identification of examined chemicals. These devices measure Raman spectra and compare with the spectra database to identify unknown and often illicit chemicals (e.g. drugs, explosives) usually without any sample preparation. Raman spectra measurements are a challenge due to noise and interferences present outside the laboratories (field applications). The design of a portable Raman...
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Airfoil Design Under Uncertainty Using Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos Theory and Utility Functions
PublicationFast and accurate airfoil design under uncertainty using non-intrusive polynomial chaos (NIPC) expansions and utility functions is proposed. The NIPC expansions provide a means to efficiently and accurately compute statistical information for a given set of input variables with associated probability distribution. Utility functions provide a way to rigorously formulate the design problem. In this work, these two methods are integrated...
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Historical carpentry corner log joints—Numerical analysis within stochastic framework
PublicationThe paper presents the results of numerical analysis performed on historical, traditional carpentry corner logjoints of two basic topologies: the short-corner dovetail connection and the saddle notch connection. These types of carpentry joints are commonly used in currently preserved objects of wooden architecture. All connections have been modelled in pinewood, which has been defined in the Finite Element software MSC.Marc/Mentat...
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The Evaluation of Expanded Uncertainty of DC Voltages in the Presence of Electromagnetic Interferences using the LabVIEW Environment
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The Influence of Noise Level on the Value of Uncertainty in a Measurement System Containing an Analog-to-Digital Converter
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Method of Estimating Uncertainty as a Way to Evaluate Continuity Quality of Power Supply in Hospital Devices
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN THE REHABILITATION OF HISTORIC TIMBER STRUCTURES ON THE EXAMPLES OF GREEK CATHOLIC CHURCHES IN POLISH SUBCARPATHIA
PublicationThis work concerns structural and sensitivity analysis of carpentry joints used in historic wooden buildings in south-eastern Poland and western Ukraine. These are primarily sacred buildings and the types of joints characteristic for this region are saddle notch and dovetail joints. Thus, in the study the authors focus on these types of corner log joints. Numerical models of the joints are defined and finite element simulations...
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An observability and detectability analysis for non-linear uncertain CSTR model of biochemical processes
PublicationThe problem of proving observability/detectability properties for selected non-linear uncertain model of biochemical processes has been addressed in this paper. In particular, the analysis of observability/detectability in the face of parametric and unstructured uncertainty in system dynamics transformed into unknown inputs, and unknown initial conditions has been performed. Various sets of system measured outputs were taken into...
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Uncertainty of mass flow measurement using centric and eccentric orifice for Reynolds number in the range 10,000 ≤ Re ≤ 20,000
PublicationThe article analyses the impact of the Reynolds number on the estimated uncertainty of the mass flow rate measurement using an orifice plate. The objects of the research were two types of orifices: centric (ISA) and eccentric, with the diameter ratio β = 0.5. Studies were performed by Monte Carlo simulation and experiments for Reynolds numbers in the range 10,000 ≤ Re ≤ 20,000. The obtained results have shown that for both orifice...
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Designing Control and Protection Systems with Regard to Integrated Functional Safety and Cybersecurity Aspects
PublicationThis article addresses current problems of risk analysis and probabilistic modelling for functional safety management in the life cycle of safety-related systems. Two main stages in the lifecycle of these systems are distinguished, namely the design and operation. The risk analysis and probabilistic modelling differ in these stages in view of available knowledge and data. Due to the complexity and uncertainty involved, both qualitative...
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Different philosophical approaches to estimating missing data in AHP frameworks for uncertainty representation in risk assessments
PublicationAHP (ang. Analytic Hierarchy Process) jest jedną z metod szeroko stosowaną w wieloatrybutowym podejmowaniu decyzji. Zwykle ekspert lub grupa ekspertów jest proszona o wyrażenie swojej subiektywnej opinii o każdej z par wariantów decyzyjnych. Na tej podstawie tworzone są tzw. macierze ocen. Zdarza się często, że macierze takie są niekompletne i wtedy występuje problem brakujących danych. Referat dotyczy wybranych metod ich uzupełnienia.
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Impact Assessment of Electric Vehicles Integration and Optimal Charging Schemes Under Uncertainty: A Case Study of Qatar
PublicationThe integration of electric vehicles (EVs) is rapidly growing compared to conventional vehicles in Qatar. To assess how these electric vehicles will impact Qatar’s distribution network, it is necessary to accurately model EV loads. However, EV loads exhibit uncertainties due to driving behaviour in charging time, state of charge (SOC), number of trips, and distance travelled. This necessitates the development of a probabilistic...
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Quasi-Static Response
PublicationConcern for the quasi-static response of ship and offshore structures, as required for safety and serviceability assessments. Attention shall be given to uncertainty quantification of quasi-static load and response analysis approaches, and their limitations, including exact and approximate methods for derivation of different acceptance criteria.
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Functional safety and reliability analysis methodoloogy for hazardous industrial plants
PublicationThis monograph is devoted to current problems and methods of the functional safety and reliability analyses of the programmable control and protection systems for industrial hazardous plants. The results of these analyses are useful in the process of safety management in life cycle, for effective reducing relevant risks at the design stage, and then controlling these risks during the operation of given installation. The methodology...
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Local variability in snow concentrations of chlorinated persistent organic pollutants as a source of large uncertainty in interpreting spatial patterns at all scales
PublicationSingle point sampling, a widespread practice in snow studies in remote areas, due to logistical constraints, can present an unquantified error to the final study results. The low concentrations of studied chemicals, such as chlorinated persistent organic pollutants, contribute to the uncertainty. We conducted a field experiment in the Arctic to estimate the error stemming from differences in the composition of snow at short distances...
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Towards application of uncertainty quantification procedure combined with experimental procedure for assessment of the accuracy of the DEM approach dedicated for granular flow modeling
PublicationThere is a high demand for accurate and fast numerical models for dense granular flows found in many industrial applications. Nevertheless, before numerical model can be used its need to be always validated against experimental data. During the validation, it is important to consider how the measurement data sets, as well as the numerical models, are affected by errors and uncertainties. In this study, the uncertainty quantification...
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Reducing the Uncertainty of the Moving Object Location Measurement with the Method of Quasi-Multiple Measurement in GNSS Technology in Symmetrical Arrangement
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A novel hybrid adaptive framework for support vector machine-based reliability analysis: A comparative study
PublicationThis study presents an innovative hybrid Adaptive Support Vector Machine - Monte Carlo Simulation (ASVM-MCS) framework for reliability analysis in complex engineering structures. These structures often involve highly nonlinear implicit functions, making traditional gradient-based first or second order reliability algorithms and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) time-consuming. The application of surrogate models has proven effective...
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Multi-Criterial Design of Antennas with Tolerance Analysis Using Response-Feature Predictors
PublicationImperfect manufacturing is one of the factors affecting the performance of antenna systems. It is particularly important when design specifications are strict and leave a minimum leeway for a degradation caused by geometry or material parameter deviations from their nominal values. At the same time, conventional antenna design procedures routinely neglect to take the fabrication tolerances into account, which is mainly a result...
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Blowing Kinetics, Pressure Resistance, Thermal Stability, and Relaxation of the Amorphous Phase of the PET Container in the SBM Process with Hot and Cold Mold. Part II: Statistical Analysis and Interpretation of Tests
PublicationThe technology of filling drinks without preservatives (such as fresh juices, iced tea drinks, and vitaminized drinks) is carried out using hot filling. Mainly due to the production costs and lower carbon footprint, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles are increasingly used in this technology. In this paper, the main aim is to describe and interpret the results of statistical analysis of the influence of the temperature of...
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Softly switched robustly feasible mpc for constrained linear systems under set bounded uncertainty- LQ-MPC with IC action
PublicationNie jest możliwe efektywne sterowanie procesem w szerokim zakresie zmian warunków operacyjnych przy użyciu jednego uniwersalnego regulatora. W pracy zaproponowano koncepcję sposobu regulacji polegającego na przełączaniu wielu regulatorów uzależnionego od stanu operacyjnego systemu. Często twarde przełączanie regulatorów nie jest pożądane lub wręcz możliwe, alternatywą jest ich miękkie przełączanie. W pracy rozważany jest problem...
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Robustified estimators of radar elevation angle using a specular multipath model
PublicationWe consider the problem of estimating the elevation angle in the presence of multipath. The proposed method belongs to the class of maximum likelihood-like estimators and employs a modified specular reflection model that accounts for the uncertainty of the steering vector by assuming that they are subject to unknown deterministic perturbations with bounded norms. The analysis, performed using convex optimization methods, allows...
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Performance-driven yield optimization of high-frequency structures by kriging surrogates
PublicationUncertainty quantification is an important aspect of engineering design, as manufacturing toler-ances may affect the characteristics of the structure. Therefore, quantification of these effects is in-dispensable for adequate assessment of the design quality. Toward this end, statistical analysis is performed, for reliability reasons, using full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulations. Still, the computational expenditures associated...
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The loop impedance measurement
Open Research DataThe loop impedance measurement
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Experimental Study of the Influence of Noise Level on the Uncertainty Value in a Measurement System Containing an Analog-to-Digital Converter
Open Research DataFor newly developed measuring systems it is easy to estimate type B uncertainties based on the technical data of the measuring modules applied. However, it is difficult to estimate A type un-certainties due to the unknown type and level of interferences infiltrating into the measuring sys-tem. This is a particularly important problem for measurements...
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Entropy function application within the selection process of diagnostic parameters of marine diesel and gas turbine engines
PublicationThe paper presents the method of conducting an analysis of the diagnostic informativeness among the parameters characterizing the observed gas dynamic processes carried out within working spaces of marine diesel and gas turbine engines. An entropy function, as the measure of uncertainty of the identified states' set of the engine unfitness was applied. Having evaluated the diagnostic information the most adequate parameters were...
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Methodological issues of functional safety and reliability assessment of critical systems in industrial hazardous plants
PublicationThe aim of this article is to identify and discuss some methodological issues that are of interest among functional safety specialists and experts after publication of the second edition of international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, including the design and implementing the safety-related functions of higher safety integrity levels and protection layers. The basic role of safety-related systems is to reduce effectively and...
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Robust asymptotic super twisting sliding mode observer for non-linear uncertain biochemical systems
PublicationThe problem of state estimation (reconstruction of the state vector) for a given class of biochemical systems under uncertain system dynamics has been addressed in this paper. In detail, the bioreactor at a water resource recovery facility represents the considered biochemical systems. The biochemical processes taking place in the bioreactor have been modelled using an activated sludge model. Based on this model, an appropriate...
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A probabilistic-driven framework for enhanced corrosion estimation of ship structural components
PublicationThe work proposes a probabilistic-driven framework for enhanced corrosion estimation of ship structural components using Bayesian inference and limited measurement data. The new approach for modelling measurement uncertainty is proposed based on the results of previous corrosion tests that incorporate the non-uniform character of the corroded surface of structural components. The proposed framework's basic features are outlined,...