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Search results for: RISK ASSESSMENT
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A framework for risk matrix design: A case of MASS navigation risk
PublicationRisk matrix, a tool for visualizing risk assessment results, is essential to facilitate the risk communication and risk management in risk-based decision-making processes related to new and unexplored socio-technical systems. The use of an appropriate risk matrix is discussed in the literature, but it is overlooked for emerging technologies such as Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). In this study, a comprehensive framework...
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The risk of corporate bankruptcy - the conceptual model
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of different types of risks influencing the corporate bankruptcy risk. The author has developed conceptual model that explains the causes and the trajectories of the collapse of enterprises. In the analyses such factors as demographic, financial, market, political and operational factors influencing the risk of failure were taken into account.
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Risk Analysis by a Probabilistic Model of the Measurement Process
PublicationThe aim of the article is presentation of the testing methodology and results of examination the probabilistic model of the measurement process. The case study concerns the determination of the risk of an incorrect decision in the assessment of the compliance of products by measurement. Measurand is characterized by the generalized Rayleigh distribution. The model of the meas-urement process was tested in parallel mode by six risk...
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Testing Question Order Effects of Self-perception of Risk Propensity on Simple Lottery Choices as Measures of the Actual Risk Propensity
PublicationUncertainty together with the necessity of making choices inevitably results in risky decisions. For many years now, scientists have been studying notions connected with risk such as risk management, risk perception or risk propensity. While many sophisticated methods regarding measurement of risk propensity have been developed so far, it seems that little attention has been paid to checking whether they are not inherently flawed....
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Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach
PublicationThe paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk...
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The trajectories of the financial crisis of companies at risk of bankruptcy
PublicationThis article concerns the assessment of the trajectory of the collapse of enterprises in Central Europe. The author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network. This model was used to determine 6 different classes of risk and was allowed to graphically determine the 5- to 10-year trajectory of going bankrupt. The study used data on 140 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population was divided into...
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Advanced Bayesian study on inland navigational risk of remotely controlled autonomous ship
PublicationThe arise of autonomous ships has necessitated the development of new risk assessment techniques and methods. This study proposes a new framework for navigational risk assessment of remotely controlled Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). This framework establishes a set of risk influencing factors affecting safety of navigation of a remotely-controlled MASS. Next, model parameters are defined based on the risk factors, and...
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Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study
PublicationThis paper presents a model to analyse the risk of two common marine accidents: collision and grounding. Attention is focused on oil tankers since they pose the highest environmental risks. A case study in selected areas of the Gulf of Finland in ice-free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a formula for risk calculation that considers both the probability of an unwanted event and its consequences. The model can be decomposed...
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LONG-TERM RISK CLASS MIGRATIONS OF NON-BANKRUPT AND BANKRUPT ENTERPRISES
PublicationThis paper investigates how the process of going bankrupt can be recognized much earlier by enterprises than by traditional forecasting models. The presented studies focus on the assessment of credit risk classes and on determination of the differences in risk class migrations between non-bankrupt enterprises and future insolvent firms. For this purpose, the author has developed a model of a Kohonen artificial neural network to...
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How to evaluate methods used in chemical laboratories in terms of the total chemical risk? – a ChlorTox Scale
PublicationReliable assessment of the health and environmental risk associated with the use of chemicals is critical to ob- jectively evaluate the greenness and whiteness of an analytical method. An objective and useful way of risk assessment should take into account all the relevant properties of used substances, their actual amounts needed for application of the method, and quantify the assessment result using a standardized unit. This...
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Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk
PublicationThe process of decision-making in public procurement of construction projects during the preparation and implementation phases ought to be supported by risk identification, assessment, and management. In risk assessment one has to take into account factors that lead to risk events (background info), as well as the information about the risk symptoms (monitoring info). Typically once the risks have been assessed a decision-maker...
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Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis of Cinan Feizuo Flood Protection Area, Huaihe River Basin
PublicationThis study evaluated multiple aspects of flood risks and effects on the Cinan Feizuo flood protection area in the Huaihe River basin. Flooding remains a leading problem for infrastructure, especially in urban, residential areas of the region. Effective flood modeling for urbanized floodplains is challenging, but MIKE (ID-2D) is paramount for analyzing and quantifying the risk in the vulnerable region. The Saint-Venant equation...
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Environmental risk- based ranking of solvents by the combination of multimedia model and multi-criteria decision analysis
PublicationA novel procedure for assessing the environmental risk related to solvents emissions has been developed. The assessment of risk is based on hazard and exposure detailed investigations. The potential exposure related to different environmental phases is calculated with basic multimedia model, that gives the percentage distribution of solvent in environmental compartments as a result. Specific hazards– toxicological, environmental...
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Corporate social responsibility and forward default risk mediated by financial performance and goodwill
PublicationIn today’s business environment, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become an increasingly significant factor for firms. This study is driven by the motivation to add to the current literature by investigating the mediating elements that explain the relationship between CSR and forward default risk. In this paper, we attempt to identify the important mediators and give a more comprehensive explanation of this connection...
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Influence of water salinity on corrosion risk - the case of the southern Baltic Sea coast.
PublicationWater corrosivity in Gdansk Bay, Poland, the southern part of the Baltic Sea, was investigated. The analysed region is heavily industrialized, and the coastline is very diverse. Twenty-seven test points along the coastline were selected. Water parameters such as salinity, total dissolved solids content, resistivity, conductivity, oxygenation, pH and corrosion rate were determined. The results of the investigation are presented....
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A ship domain-based model of collision risk for near-miss detection and Collision Alert Systems
PublicationThe paper presents a new model of ship collision risk, which utilises a ship domain concept and the related domain-based collision risk parameters. An encounter is here described by five variables representing: degree of domain violation (DDV), relative speed of the two vessels, combination of the vessels’ courses, arena violations and encounter complexity. As for the first three variables, their values can be directly computed...
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Machine learning-based seismic fragility and seismic vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete structures
PublicationMany studies have been performed to put quantifying uncertainties into the seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. This paper provides a risk-assessment support tool for purpose of retrofitting and potential design strategies of RC buildings. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms were developed in Python software by innovative methods of hyperparameter optimization, such as halving search, grid search, random...
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Modelling of some stealth features for a small navy ship at the concept design stage - part II
PublicationIn the paper a few problems associated with modelling the basic stealth features for a small ship at the concept design stage are introduced. One problem concerns the modification of the immersed ship hull using the rapid change of the ship loading condition. The second is associated with the modification of the ship boundary layer by the hull skin cover. The other stealth features of the ship are not presented in this paper. The...
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Procedure based proactive functional safety management for the risk mitigation of hazardous events in the oil port installations including insurance aspects
PublicationThis article addresses selected technical and organization aspects of risk mitigation in the oil port installations with regard to functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The procedure for functional safety management includes the hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on risk assessment results...
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Risk criteria for sea-going ships arising from the operation of the main engines' crankshaft - conecting rod - piston systems
PublicationIn the article the risk criterion for sea-going ships arising from the operation of the main engines' crankshaft - connecting rod - piston systems is proposed. These criterion is based on the procedures recommended in the Formal Safety Assessment method developed under the auspices of International Maritime Organization (IMO). First of all the collective risk criterion for ship has been proposed. In the next step, the share of...
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Modelling of some stealth features for a small navy ship at the concept design stage.
PublicationIn this paper the basic research problems associated with modelling the basic stealth features for a small navy ship at the concept design stage are introduced. Amongst the major stealth features considered are: the modification of the immersed ship hull form by a rapid change of the ship loading condition, and modification of the ship boundary layer by the hull skin cover. The other stealth features of the ship are not presented...
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PRELIMINARY FIELD TESTS AND LONG-TERM MONITORING AS A METHOD OF DESIGN RISK MITIGATION: A CASE STUDY OF GDAŃSK DEEPWATER CONTAINER TERMINAL
PublicationAppropriate risk assessment plays a fundamental role in the design. . The authors propose a possible method of design risk mitigation, which follows recommendations included in Eurocode 7. The so-called “Observational Method” (OM) can produce savings in costs and programmes on engineering projects without compromising safety. The case study presented is a complex design solution that deals with the heavy foundations of a gantry...
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A framework to analyse the probability of accidental hull girder failure considering advanced corrosion degradation for risk-based ship design
PublicationShip’s hull girder failure could result from maritime accident that can cause human life loss, environmental disaster, and major economic impacts. In risk-based ship design paradigm, accounting for rare phenomena (e.g. ship-ship collision or grounding) is important to provide safe and durable structure. In-service corrosion-induced hull degradation should be considered at the design stage, as it can significantly affect structural...
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Development of factors and measurement of personnel risk in the marketing services of four Polish pharmaceutical companies
Open Research DataThis text contains the presentation and analysis of research results in relation to four companies (A, B, C, D), according to the adopted case study method.Further considerations should be preceded by the assumption that personal risk factors often affect the level of this risk in various directions, so their final impact is the result of the shaping...
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Jarosław Przewłócki prof. dr hab. inż.
PeopleJarosław Przewłócki jest profesorem na Wydziale Architektury Politechniki Gdańskiej, zastępca kierownika Katedry Technicznych Podstaw Projektowania Architektonicznego. Podstawowym kierunkiem jego działalności naukowej są badania zjawisk losowych i zastosowanie metod probabilistycznych oraz teorii niezawodności w budownictwie, a w szczególności w geotechnice. Autor i współautor około stu publikacji naukowych, w tym szeregu książek...
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Anna Rzeczycka dr hab.
PeopleAnna Rzeczycka is the deputy head of the Department of Finance at the Faculty of Economics and Management of the Gdańsk University of Technology. Publications are situated in the field of social sciences in the discipline of economics and finance. They include books, monographs, articles, publications and scientific editions of monographs and scientific journals. In terms of numbers, it includes the following items: 12 monographs...
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A methodology for ultimate strength assessment of ship hull girder accounting for enhanced corrosion degradation modelling
PublicationThe presented work shows a methodology for the ultimate strength assessment of a ship hull, considering enhanced corrosion modelling. The approach is based on the classical Smith method. However, the recent findings regarding the impact of corrosion degradation on ultimate strength are incorporated. To this end, the stress–strain relationships for particular elements composing ship hull cross-section are modified using a specially...
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Trans-Risk - An Integrated Method for Risk Management in Transport
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A model for agribusiness supply chain risk management using fuzzy logic. Case study: Grain route from Ukraine to Poland
PublicationIn order to establish new logistics routes, it is necessary to address several technical and organizational issues, among others. One of the most important criteria for evaluating the performance of a supply chain is the delivery time, proactive consideration of potential hazards and associated uncertainties that may occur along the route. However, the existing solutions are often passive and reactive, based on statistics, thus...
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Ttrans-risk - an integrated method for risk management in transport =Trans-risk - zintegrowana metoda zarządzania ryzykiem w transporcie
PublicationPodjęto już wiele prób integracji metod zarządzania ryzykiem w innych dziedzinach życia. Przegląd metod zarządzania ryzykiem w poszczególnych gałęziach transportu wskazuje na dość duże rozbieżności terminologiczne i dotyczące szczegółowych zasad i zastosowań metod zarządzania ryzykiem. Istnieje zatem konieczność podjęcia próby integracji metod zarządzania ryzykiem w transporcie. Niniejsza praca jest wynikiem działań interdyscyplinarnego...
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Modeling of event trees for the rapid scenario development
PublicationThe paper concerns the safety of ships in abnormal/damage conditions. Some conclusions following from the research associated with development of a method for safety assessment of ships in abnormal/damage conditions is presented in the paper. The method called SSAMADC (Ship Safety Assessment Method in Abnormal/Damage Conditions) is a risk-based method and is connected with application of the quantitative risk assessment QRA approach....
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Rafał Leszczyna dr hab. inż.
PeopleDr hab. Rafal Leszczyna is an associate professor at Gdansk University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Economics. He holds the M.Sc. degrees of Computer Science and Business Management. In December, 2006 he earned a Ph.D. in Computer Science, specialisation - Computer Security at the Faculty of Electronics, Telecommunications and Informatics of Gdansk University of Technology. Between 2004 and 2008 he worked in the European...
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Jakub Montewka prof. dr hab. inż.
PeopleJakub Montewka is an associate professor at Gdańsk University of Technology in Poland and visiting processor at Aalto University in Espoo, Finland and Wuhan University of Technology in China. Jakub is researching in the field of maritime traffic risk and safety. His primary interests lie in the risk assessment of maritime transportation, quantification of safety of maritime navigation, route optimization for ships in ice-covered...
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Sources of investment risk in urban regeneration projects
PublicationThe scope of the article includes multidimensional risk analysis of urban regeneration projects, whose base is to identify areas of its occurrence. Authors thoroughly analyze the sources of potential threats and attempts to answer the question, what is their contribution into overall urban regeneration’ investment risk. The target concept will be used to assess the level of investment risk at the stage of initiation, preparation...
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Methods of Assessment of Metal Contamination in Bottom Sediments (Case Study: Straszyn Lake, Poland)
PublicationThe concentrations of six metals (Zn, Cu, Pb, Ni, Cr, and Cd) were investigated in bottom sediments of Straszyn Lake (North Poland). This study was designed to determine a total content of metals and to assess their mobility and bioavailability. The sequential extraction was used to fractionate metals into five fractions: exchangeable, bound to carbonates, bound to Fe–Mn oxides, bound to organic matter, and residual. The evaluation...
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Knowledge Risk Management in Organizations
PublicationPurpose – Shorter product life cycles, greater demands from consumers for sustainable and eco-friendly products and services, and thus the need for constant market observation make today’s business environment a rather complex one, the one that is characterized not only by a number of opportunities but also by a number of risks. These risks are increasingly related to knowledge which, in turn, underlines the need for an updated...
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Assessment of the water quality of Kłodnica River catchment using self-organizing maps
PublicationRisk assessment of industrial areas heavily polluted due to anthropogenic actions is of increasing concern worldwide. So is the case of Polish Silesia region where mostly heavy industry like smelters, mining, chemical industries as well as heat and electricity production facilities are being located. Such situation raises numerous questions about environmental state of local water bodies with special attention paid to the Kłodnica...
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THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE INSURANCE RISK
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Smoking and cardiovascular risk
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Falling accident risk in Poland.
PublicationFor the last few years we observe optimistic tendencies in traffic risk development in Poland - the number of fatalities decreases about 10% per year, bringing Poland closer to European Union standards. Nevertheless in 2001 we observed the unexpected, and bigger than forecasted, fatality reduction. The reason was the economic downturn suffered across the country, resulting in reduced demand for transportation. The danger lies in...
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Falling accident risk in Poland.
PublicationFor the last few years we observe optimistic tendencies in traffic risk development in Poland the number of fatalities decreases about 10% per year, bringing Poland closer to European Union standards. Nevertheless in 2001 we observed the unexpected, and bigger than forecasted, casualty reduction. The reason was the economic downturn suffered across the country, resulting in reduced demand for transportation. The danger lies in...
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Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises
PublicationThe aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt...
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Current issues of functional safety and cybersecurity analysis of the industrial and critical infrastructures
PublicationThis article addresses some functional safety assessment procedures with cybersecurity aspects in critical industrial installations with regard to the functional safety requirements specified in standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511. The functional safety management includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of safety functions. Based on the risk assessment...
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Modeling the risk of ship grounding—a literature review from a risk management perspective
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Ryzyko statystyczne a ryzyko rzeczywistego pacjenta = Statistical risk and risk of the real patient
PublicationDzięki wieloletnim obserwacjom populacji ludzkiej udało się zidentyfikować czynniki ryzyka choroby wieńcowej. Najważniejsze z nich to: wiek, płeć, obciążenie genetyczne, palenie papierosów, stężenie cholesterolu we krwi, ciśnienie tętnicze, brak aktywności fizycznej, nadwaga, obecność cukrzycy. Obserwacje prospektywne populacji dostarczyły danych do opracowania modeli, które określają relacje między wartościami czynników ryzyka...
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Conditional Value-at-Risk Vs. Value-at-Risk to Multi-Objective Portfolio Optimization
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An Integrated Approach to an Assessment of Bottlenecks for Navigation on Riverine Waterways
PublicationWater transport, both sea and inland, is the cheapest, least invasive, and safest option for non-standard loads; hence, it is important to increase the percentage share of inland waterway transport on the rivers of Central and Eastern Europe. Transporting cargo is particularly difficult on shallow waterways because rivers overloaded with sediment determine the vertical parameters on inland waterways. A ship’s safe manoeuvrability...
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Risk sharing in the construction work contracts
PublicationBy signing a contract for construction works each of the parties assumes a specific scope of responsibility. In practice, there are numerous examples of contractual provisions that violate the parties’ safety and the balance of fair and even distribution of risk. Asymmetry in risk allocation in construction contracts and its consequences is the most common cause of disputes between the parties. The article presents the issue of...
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An updated method identifying collision-prone locations for ships. A case study for oil tankers navigating in the Gulf of Finland
PublicationTo ensure the risk level associated with continuously increasing maritime traffic through particularly sensitive sea areas remains at acceptable level, a periodic risk assessment needs to be carried out by the relevant authorities. As a part of such assessment, allowing for proactive countermeasures to mitigate risk, the frequency of accidents is estimated along with the assessment of geographical locations where the accidents...
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Procedure based functional safety and information security management of industrial automation and control systems on example of the oil port installations
PublicationThe approach addresses selected technical and organization aspects of risk mitigation in the oil port installations with regard to functional safety and security requirements specified in standards IEC 61508, IEC 61511 and IEC 62443. The procedure for functional safety management includes the hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safety requirements and definition of...