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Search results for: INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION METHODS
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The investment risk forecasting in a local energy market
PublicationThe paper considers the general problems faced when evaluating the risk of investing in a local energy market by computer tools. The proposal formulated for the emerging local energy markets suggests broadening the method of evaluating investment risk so as to include elements of cluster analysis. The paper also discusses the significance of estimating investment risk in market terms and the importance and range of the local energy...
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Sources of investment risk in urban regeneration projects
PublicationThe scope of the article includes multidimensional risk analysis of urban regeneration projects, whose base is to identify areas of its occurrence. Authors thoroughly analyze the sources of potential threats and attempts to answer the question, what is their contribution into overall urban regeneration’ investment risk. The target concept will be used to assess the level of investment risk at the stage of initiation, preparation...
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Model of Risk Assessment (MORA) concept for the investment part of urban regeneration projects
PublicationThe main goal of this paper is presentation of the model concept (MORA) that will be used to control level of risk and manage technical risk in investment projects in the area of urban regeneration risk management.
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Exploring the relationship between investment choices, cognitive abilities risk attitudes and financial literacy
PublicationPurpose The main purpose of this study is to investigate the investment choices' relationship with cognitive abilities, risk aversion, risky investment intentions, subjective financial literacy and objective financial literacy. Design/methodology/approach To examine the relationship, two investment choices were given to 256 subjects from Pakistan. Questionnaire had total 20 questions for measuring five variables. To review this...
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Prognostic and diagnostic capabilities of OOBN in assessing investment risk of complex construction projects
PublicationModelling decision problems using Bayesian networks is extremely valuable especially in case of issues related to uncertainty; it is also very helpful in constructing and understanding visual representation of the elements and their relations. This approach facilitates subsequent application of Bayesian networks, however there can be situations where using simple Bayesian networks is impractical or even ineffective. The aim of...
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Risk of Delays in Implementation of Building Investment in Urban Conditions in the Aspect of Historical Background of its Location
PublicationThe implementation of a construction investment in urban conditions is extremely complex, and at the same time exposed to a high risk of a specific character. In case of construction investment located in the historic part of the city, the possible accumulation of many unfavourable factors, which in course of its implementation, may constitute a serious source of delays and disruptions, should be taken into account at the preparation...
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Risk of Cost Overruns in Implementation of Building Investment in Urban Conditions in the Aspect of Historical Background of its Location
PublicationThe article is a continuation of the authors' analyzes on the risk of delays in implementation of building investment in urban conditions in the aspect of historical background of its location. In case of construction investment located in the historic part of the city, the possible accumulation of many unfavourable factors, which in course of its implementation, may constitute a serious source of cost overruns and disruptions,...
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Interdisciplinary risk analysis of construction investment and property value in the areas with mining impact
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Building Information Modelling as an opportunity and risk for stakeholders involved in construction investment process
PublicationThe requirements to apply Building Information Modelling (BIM) in public investments worldwide are currently very high. Significant interest (sometimes formulated also as a requirement) in BIM technology can be observed also among private investors. Design technology that applies BIM is supported by many private investors due to its numerous advantages. A growing group of construction designers (steel, concrete and reinforced concrete...
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Selected problems of decision making modelling in power engineering
PublicationThe paper presents the selected problems of decision making modelling in power engineering specially investment risk evaluation methods. The proposed model can be used in the range programming the development and investing process in power engineering. Decision making problems in power engineering and the evaluation of investment effectiveness in particular are closely related to modelling which relatively accurately reflects...
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Analysis and Risk Evaluation on the Case of Alteration, Revitalization and Conversion of a Historic Building in Gdańsk
PublicationEach investment plan, including the one concerning a building, is exposed to the consequences of various types of threats taking place. Therefore, in the case of some large-scale, atypical and complicated building ventures, some actions included in the procedure of risk management should be taken. This will allow for the risk to be eliminated or limited. While preparing a building venture, an investor does not possess full information...
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ASSESSMENT OF GOLD AND/OR CRUDE OIL AS INVESTMENTS FOR PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION. A WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE CASE STUDY
PublicationThe purpose of the study is to assess whether the inclusion of investments in gold and/or crude oil improves an investment portfolio consisting of shares of enterprises included in the WIG20 index (traditional invest-ments). All possible combinations of investment portfolios with minimal risk and maximum efficiency were tested. The portfolios were determined based on Markowitz’s portfolio theory. All results were compared...
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The share of investments in gold and oil using the example of selected European stock exchanges– A comparative analysis
PublicationIn this article, optimal investment portfolios with minimal risk and maximum efficiency were calculated. The portfolios were designated for ten selected European stock exchanges, based on the listings of the twenty largest companies in each of those markets. All calculations were made based on company shares only, company shares and investments in gold, shares of companies and investments in crude oil as well as shares of companies...
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Markowitz’s portfolio theory – optimal length of estimation window for gold and the biggests companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange
PublicationThe following article is dedicated to the construction of an investment portfolio consisting of 3 investments from the Polish capital market found in the WIG20 index and from investment in gold. The purpose of the study was to determine the optimal length of the estimation window for building a portfolio with minimal risk and maximum efficiency. The length of the estimation window was also assessed in terms of the rate of return...
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ADAPTIVE PREDICTIONS OF THE EURO/ZŁOTY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE USING STATE SPACE WAVELET NETWORKS AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS
PublicationThe paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN) spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day- ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space...
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VALUATION OF EMBEDDED OPTIONS IN NON-MARKETABLE CALLABLE BONDS: A NEW NUMERICAL APPROACH
PublicationThe issue of how to price options embedded in callable bonds has attracted a lot of interest over the years. The usual bond valuation methods rely on yield curves, risk premium, and other parameters to estimate interest rates used in discounted cash flow calculations. The option to retire the bond is, however, neglected in the standard pricing models, causing a systematic overvaluation of callable bonds. In the event of a decline...
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Examples of Taxation on Real Estate Properties as an Long-term Investment Asset. Description of Situation in Selected European Countries
PublicationReal estate properties have become the alternative asset for long-term savings and investments. Such investment however is strictly related to risk inter alia taxation policy. The following article describes and discusses both theoretical and practical aspects of long-term investment taxation imposed on real estate market in selected European countries. The article presents the analyses of the taxes including its functions, mechanisms...
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The Selection of Anchoring System for Floating Houses by Means of AHP Method
PublicationThis paper indicates and analyses the use of anchoring systems, such as mooring piles, booms, mooring cables, and deadweight anchors with additional elastic connectors, which are the most frequently applied by the producers of floating houses. The selection of the most advantageous anchoring system is complicated and requires the application of quantitative and qualitative data and methods. This publication presents the results...
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Investing in wine, precious metals and G-7 stock markets – A co-occurrence analysis for price bubbles
PublicationThis paper used the GSADF test to determine the periods defined in this paper as price bubbles in the three markets studied, i.e. the investment wine market, precious metal market and national stock market indices of G-7 countries. The results obtained enabled the calculation of the values of the phi correlation coefficients, which served the research objective of assessing the co-occurrence of price bubbles in the markets analysed....
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Balkan Stock Exchanges – Consideration of the Length of the Estimation Window in Similar Markets
PublicationPurpose: We study if capital markets in the Balkan are closely and positively related in terms of rate of return, risk, efficiency, and maximum cumulative loss in relation to different lengths of the estimation window. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research was carried out for the period from 01/01/2017 to 31/12/2019 using portfolio analysis. It was divided into an estimation window (01/01/2019 to 31/12/2019) and another with...
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Application of BN in Risk Diagnostics Arising from the Degree of Urban Regeneration Area Degradation
PublicationUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Application of Bayesian Networks in risk diagnostics arising from the degree of urban regeneration area degradation
PublicationUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Classification of Urban Regeneration Participants as a Basis for Identification of Construction Investment's Risk Sources
PublicationOn the basis of the conducted research it can be concluded that the majority of the existing urban regeneration problems are revealed by the lack of an in-depth analysis of sources and risk factors. For the above reasons, the subject of this study is classification of urban regeneration's participants as a basis for identification of construction investment's risk sources. The research methodology is based on an in-depth analysis...
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Wpływ modernizacji linii kolejowych na poprawę wybranych parametrów techniczno - eksploatacyjnych
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono pojęcie jakości robót inwestycyjnych poszczególnych elementów infrastruktury kolejowej oraz metody jej oceny. Skupiono uwagę na jakości początkowej nawierzchni kolejowej po pracach modernizacyjnych na sieci Polskich Linii Kolejowych. Wskazano błędy oraz najczęstsze problemy techniczne występujące w trakcie trwania robót oraz po ich zakończeniu na poszczególnych etapach odbiorów. Opisano wpływ jakości początkowej...
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Confidence, Financial Literacy and Investment in Risky Assets: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
PublicationWe employ recent Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) microdata from the US to analyze the impacts of confidence in one's own financial knowledge, confidence in the economy, and objective financial literacy on investment in risky financial assets (equity and bonds) on both the extensive and intensive margins. Controlling for a rich set of covariates including risk aversion, we find that objective financial literacy is positively...
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State tax policy and reform tools as a risk of running a business. Case study based on Polski Ład – Polish tax reform
PublicationThe aim of the article is to describe and present the Polish tax reform introduced at the beginning of 2022. Tax changes introduced in Poland had a strong impact on the risk of running a business in Poland because in their assumption they directly changed the rules of running a business. Due to the pace of the introduced changes, as well as the scope of the reform, the new tax law was subject to numerous criticisms of taxpayers...
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Exchange-Traded Funds in Europe
PublicationExchange-Traded Funds in Europe provides a single point of reference on a diverse set of regional ETF markets, illuminating the roles ETFs can play in risk mitigation and speculation. Combining empirical data with models and case studies, the authors use diffusion models and panel/country-specific regressions—as well as graphical and descriptive analyses— to show how ETFs are more than conventional, passive investments. With new...
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Zastosowanie specjalnego uziemienia żył powrotnych w liniach kablowych SN
PublicationW artykule porównano metody uziemiania żył powrotnych kabli średniego napięcia. Głównym kryterium oceny poszczególnych rozwiązań było ograniczenie strat w przesyle energii elektrycznej oraz zapewnienie ochrony przeciwprzepięciowej osłon kabli. Na podstawie symulacji kabli zamodelowanych w programie CYMCAP i otrzymanych wyników obciążalności prądowej i strat w linii zaprezentowano metodę krzyżowania żył powrotnych (CB – cross-bonding...
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Transparency of publicly available information about fiscal and monetary policy in Poland
PublicationResearch background: The quality of information provided by fiscal and monetary authorities are important in a democratic state. Ensuring fiscal policy transparency reduces fiscal risk and corruption and promotes public acceptance of fiscal reforms. Ensuring transparency in monetary policy allows market participants to anticipate central bank responses and take their effects into account when making investment and consumption decisions. Aim...
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Analiza Niezawodności Człowieka w Ramach Funkcji związanych z Bezpieczeństwem w Przykładowej Instalacji
PublicationW analizie bezpieczeństwa funkcjonalnego systemów sterowania i zabezpieczeń należy określić wymagany poziom nienaruszalności bezpieczeństwa SIL w procesie analizy ryzyka, a następnie zweryfikować ten poziom stosując odpowiednie metody modelowania probabilistycznego. Działania człowieka mogą mieć istotny wpływ na realizację funkcji bezpieczeństwa. Wpływ ten ocenia się na podstawie wyników analizy niezawodności człowieka HRA. W niniejszym...
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Współczesne zmiany klimatyczne i ich wpływ na funkcjonowanie systemów miejskich (na przykładzie miast strefy nadmorskiej Polski)
PublicationThe purpose of this article is to present contemporary climatic changes in their actual scale, and to assess their impact on functioning of urban areas situated on the Polish coast. The results of the analysis of variability of hydro-climatic conditions that occurred in the last 65 years (1951-2015) in the area of the Polish coast suggest that important changes were concerning: (1) temperature of the air, and thickness and length...
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Urban Mentoring as a new polish management technique in participatory planning
PublicationA decade of experience in implementation of numerous urban modernization projects in Poland resulted in a lively debate on socialization of the planning process, in which the matter of the public space quality has become the center of gravity. In those years, transformation from the classic administrative model of „bureaucracy planning” to the model of „management planning” has not been complete. The socialist primacy of the public...
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Analytical Methods for Causality Evaluation of Photonic Materials
PublicationWe comprehensively review several general methods and analytical tools used for causality evaluation of photonic materials. Our objective is to call to mind and then formulate, on a mathematically rigorous basis, a set of theorems which can answer the question whether a considered material model is causal or not. For this purpose, a set of various distributional theorems presented in literature is collected as the distributional...
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Evaluation of Path Based Methods for Conceptual Representation of the Text
PublicationTypical text clustering methods use the bag of words (BoW) representation to describe content of documents. However, this method is known to have several limitations. Employing Wikipedia as the lexical knowledge base has shown an improvement of the text representation for data-mining purposes. Promising extensions of that trend employ hierarchical organization of Wikipedia category system. In this paper we propose three path-based...
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Effect of adopted rules of inference and methods of defuzzification on the final result of the evaluation of reliability made using the fuzzy logic methods
PublicationThe object of interest is to solve the problem of risk management of marine systems. But the main trouble is a lack of numerous and sure data on the reliability of the components of such systems. The methods based on the fuzzy logic seem to be helpful here. The goal of the article is to check the effect of using different fuzzy inference rules and methods of defuzzification on the final result of reliability assessment. The three...
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Evaluation of Decision Fusion Methods for Multimodal Biometrics in the Banking Application
PublicationAn evaluation of decision fusion methods based on Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) and its modifications is presented in the article, studied over real biometric data from the engineered multimodal banking client verification system. First, the approaches for multimodal biometric data fusion for verification are explained. Then the proposed implementation of comparison scores fusion is presented, including details on the application...
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Hierarchical approach to security monitoring and risk evaluation
PublicationPrzedstawiono problemy bezpieczeństwa sieciowego z uwzględnieiem metod szacowania i oceny bezpieczeństwa w skali lokalnej i globalnej. Podano przykłady analizy 3 systemów wraz z wnioskami oraz sugestie dotyczące trendów przyszłościowych.
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Environmentally Oriented Models and Methods for the Evaluation of Drug x Drug Interaction Effects
PublicationThis detailed review compares known and widely used methods for drug interaction estimation, some of which now have historical significance. Pharmaceutical application has been noted as far back as several thousand years ago. Relatively late in the 20th century, however, researchers became aware that their fate and metabolism, which still remain a great challenge for environmental analysts and risk assessors. For the patient’s...
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Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
PublicationThis article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more efectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specic endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration...
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Evaluation of electrical parameters of traction supply system for complex railway traffic conditions, using simulation methods
PublicationDevelopment of electrified transport systems, railways modernization, expansion of urban transport networks, purchases of modern rolling stock causes that updating of electric traction supply system is necessary. This chapter presents an effective method for electrical parameters of traction supply system evaluation, using simulation methods.
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Cartometric: semantic ontology evaluation with cartographic methods
PublicationW ostatnich latach, głównie dzięki rozwojowi inicjatywy Sieci Semantycznej (ang. Semantic Web), staliśmy się świadkami powstawania coraz większej liczby gwałtownie ewoluujących ontologii. W takiej sytuacji zarówno użytkownicy Sieci, jak i komputerowe agenty potrzebują metody oceny właściwości ontologii, w szczególności takiej, która uwzględni jej cechy semantyczne, czyli kształt przestrzeni dozwolonych modeli. Niniejsza praca prezentuje...
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Comparative Evaluation of Selected Biological Methods for the Removal of Hydrophilic and Hydrophobic Odorous VOCs from Air
PublicationDue to increasingly stringent legal regulations as well as increasing social awareness, the removal of odorous volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from air is gaining importance. This paper presents the strategy to compare selected biological methods intended for the removal of different air pollutants, especially of odorous character. Biofiltration, biotrickling filtration and bioscrubbing technologies are evaluated in terms of...
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STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF FAMILIAL RISK FACTORS IN TYPE 1 DIABETES
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URBAN MENTORING JAKO NOWA TECHNIKA WPRÓŁPRACY W PROCESIE PLANOWANIA PARTCYPACYJNEGO
PublicationW 25 lat od powrotu demokracji opierającej się o neoliberalny paradygmat rozwoju kraju, Polska przyjęła Krajową Politykę Miejską 2030. Wraz z ustawą o rewitalizacji w nowoczesny sposób określa ona pole współpracy władz samorządowych i administracji z mieszkańcami, przejście do drugiej fazy rozwoju społeczeństwa demokratycznego – mieszkańców współgospodarzy przestrzeni miast. Powolna ewolucja tej relacji, silnie obarczonej dziedzictwem...
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Integrating quality criteria and methods of evaluation for software models
PublicationRozdział podejmuje zagadnienia jakości modeli w inżynierii oprogramowania. Zawiera on przegląd i systematyzację kryteriów jakości modeli oraz metod oceny jakości modeli. Podaje metodologię tworzenia metod oceny jakości modeli w zależności od kryteriów jakości oraz innych parametrów oceny. Zawiera również studia przypadków zastosowania tej metodologii.
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The improvement and evaluation methods of settling properties of activated sludge
PublicationW biologicznych oczyszczalniach ścieków często pojawiają się problemy z sedymentacją osadu czynnego. Złe właściwości sedymentacyjne osadu często powodowane są nadmiernym rozwojem bakterii nitkowatych. W pracy przedstawiono koncepcję poprawy właściwości sedymentacyjnych osadu czynnego, opartą na kontroli parametrów pracy reaktorów SBR - temperatury, stężenia tlenu oraz czasu opadania osadu w komorze.
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Topography measurement methods evaluation for entire bending-fatigued fracture surfaces of specimens obtained by explosive welding
PublicationIn this paper, the methods of compensation of differences in the results of entire bending-fatigued fracture surface topographies were presented. The roughness evaluation was performed with a focus variation microscope and confocal surface topography measurement techniques. The differences in the ISO 25178 roughness parameters were investigated and procedures for their compensation were studied. It was found that various types...
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Deep eutectic solvents microbial toxicity: Current state of art and critical evaluation of testing methods
PublicationDeep eutectic solvents (DESs) were described at the beginning of 21st century and they consist of a mixture of two or more solid components, which gives rise to a lower melting point compared to the starting materials. Over the years, DESs have proved to be a promising alternative to traditional organic solvents and ionic liquids (ILs) due to their low volatility, low inflammability, easy preparation, and usually low cost of compounds...
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Preeclampsia Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods Trained on Synthetic Data
PublicationThis paper describes a research study that investigates the use of machine learning algorithms on synthetic data to classify the risk of developing preeclampsia by pregnant women. Synthetic datasets were generated based on parameter distributions from three real patient studies. Four models were compared: XGBoost, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, and Explainable Boosting Machines (EBM). The study found that the XGBoost...
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Evaluation of Inoculated Waste Biological Stabilization Degree by Olfactometric Methods
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