Search results for: COMPUTER SIMULATIONS, CALCULUS OF PROBABILITY, MODELLING, SURVIVAL, PROBABILITY, RISK, FORECASTING, RELIABILITY
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Probabilistic Methods in Reliability Assessment of Engineering Lightweight Structures
PublicationThe paper considers the probability-based analysis of structural safety measures. Two different numerical examples of representative lightweight structures are considered – a submerged truss tower supporting an offshore platform, and an overhead power line support truss tower. On the basis of these examples, the importance of a motivated selection of analysis method and a proper choice of the number of important variables is shown....
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Expedited Yield Optimization of Narrow- and Multi-Band Antennas Using Performance-Driven Surrogates
PublicationUncertainty quantification is an important aspect of engineering design, also pertaining to the development and performance evaluation of antenna systems. Manufacturing tolerances as well as other types of uncertainties, related to material parameters (e.g., substrate permittivity) or operating conditions (e.g., bending) may affect the antenna characteristics. In the case of narrow- or multi-band antennas, this usually leads to...
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Reliability model of slide bearings with particular attention given to lubricating oil
PublicationThe paper presents the slide bearing with circulating lubrication as a system of series three-element structure, where lubricating oil is the weakest link. In accordance with the Pierce statement that ''strength of chain is the strength of its weakest link'', a bearing reliability model has been developed. It allows to use the lubricating oil to evaluate the probability of correct working of the whole slide bearing, i.e. the reliability....
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Application of BN in Risk Diagnostics Arising from the Degree of Urban Regeneration Area Degradation
PublicationUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Application of Bayesian Networks in risk diagnostics arising from the degree of urban regeneration area degradation
PublicationUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Homogeneous nucleation rate of methane hydrate formation under experimental conditions from seeding simulations
PublicationIn this work, we shall estimate via computer simulations the homogeneous nucleation rate for the methane hydrate at 400 bars for a supercooling of about 35 K. The TIP4P/ICE model and a Lennard-Jones center were used for water and methane, respectively. To estimate the nucleation rate, the seeding technique was employed. Clusters of the methane hydrate of different sizes were inserted into the aqueous phase of a two-phase gas–liquid...
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ROAD SAFETY MANAGEMENT TOOLS FOR COUNTRY STRATEGIC LEVEL
PublicationStrategic road safety programmes setting out long-term visions and road infrastructure development plans must be based on road safety forecasts and an understanding of the long-term impact of different measures on road safety. The objective of this paper is to discuss a concept of road safety management for an area of a selected country because there are no simple tools of road safety management for the development and implementation...
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An attempt to develop a model selection algorithm of computer simulation during the design process of mechanical response of any mechanical body
Publicationn the literature, there are algorithms associated with the design of simulations of technological processes, in which the material model has always been defined previously. However, in none of the studies of computer simulation modelling of technological processes known to the authors of this article, is there a detailed description of how the algorithm, or the selection of plastic model used, is subject to this process. This article...
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An Attempt to Develop a Model Selection Algorithm of Computer Simulation during the Design Process of Mechanical Response of Any Mechanical Body
PublicationIn the literature, there are algorithms associated with the design of simulations of technological processes, in which the material model has always been defined previously. However, in none of the studies of computer simulation modelling of technological processes known to the authors of this article, is there a detailed description of how the algorithm, or the selection of plastic model used, is subject to this process. This...
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Pomiar ryzyka bankowego - propozycja typologii
PublicationW artykule zaproponowano typologię pomiaru ryzyk bankowych. Wyodrębnione kryteria podziału podejść do pomiaru ryzyka to: (1) pomiar bezpośredni/pośredni, (2) pomiar ex post/ex ante, (3) kryterium oparte o składnik ryzyka – częstotliwość, dotkliwość, ekspozycja, całościowa strata, (4) kryterium oparte o parametr rozkładu: pomiar wartości oczekiwanej/przeciętnej, pomiar rozproszenia, pomiar wartości skrajnych. Wśród motywów pomiaru...
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Transport of dangerous goods by rail, and threats to the subsoil of the railway surface in the event of a disaster
PublicationIn Poland, in 2020, the mass of dangerous goods (loads) transported by rail was 26 151.06 thousand tone. This translated into the performance of 8 899 691.89 thousand tone - km of transport performance. In 2020, these figures accounted for 11.72% of the weight of goods transported by rail. The situation is similar in other countries around the world. With such a large volume of transport of dangerous...
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Investor confidence and high financial literacy jointly shape investments in risky assets
PublicationHouseholds consistently invest less in equities and bonds than predicted by economic theory. We explain this from a behavioral economics perspective and distributional analysis using rich US survey microdata. We find that higher investor self-confidence in her financial abilities and financial literacy jointly increase the probability of investing in equities. Conditional on participation, confidence in the macroeconomy additionally...
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Diagnosis of damages in family buildings using neural networks
PublicationThe article concerns a problem of damages in family buildings, which result from traffic-induced vibrations. These vibrations arise from various causes and their size is influenced by many factors. The most important is the type of a road, type and weight of vehicles that run on the road, type and condition of the road surface, the distance from the house to the source of vibrations and many others which should be taken into account....
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Investor confidence and high financial literacy jointly shape investments in risky assets
PublicationHouseholds consistently invest less in equities and bonds than predicted by economic theory. We explain this from a behavioral economics perspective and distributional analysis using rich US survey microdata. We find that higher investor self-confidence in her financial abilities and financial literacy jointly increase the probability of investing in equities. Conditional on participation, confidence in the macroeconomy additionally...
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Variable-fidelity response feature surrogates for accelerated statistical analysis and yield estimation of compact microwave components
PublicationAccounting for manufacturing tolerances is an essential part of a reliable microwave design process. Yet, quantification of geometry and/or material parameter uncertainties is challenging at the level of full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulation models. This is due to inherently high cost of EM analysis and massive simulations necessary to conduct the statistical analysis. Here, a low-cost and accurate yield estimation procedure...
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Modelling of dielectric properties of BiNbO4-based microwave ceramics
PublicationIn the present paper results of the studies devoted to computer simulations of dielectric response of electroceramics in a frequency domain as well as analysis of the experimental data are given. As an object of investigations BiNbO4-based microwave ceramics was taken. Simulations of the hypothetical impedance response of the ceramic system were performed under assumption of the brick-layer model. A strategy for analysis and modelling...
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Expedited Yield-Driven Design of High-Frequency Structures by Kriging Surrogates in Confined Domains
PublicationUncertainty quantification is an important aspect of engineering design, also pertaining to the development and performance evaluation of high-frequency structures systems. Manufacturing tolerances as well as other types of uncertainties, related to material parameters (e.g., substrate permittivity) or operating conditions (e.g., bending) may affect the characteristics of antennas or microwave devices. For example, in the case...
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Reliability of Corroded Stiffened Plate Subjected to Uniaxial Compressive Loading
PublicationThe work is focused on the reliability of corroded stiffened plates subjected to compressive uniaxial load based on the progressive collapse approach as stipulated by the Common Structural Rules for Bulk Carriers and Oil Tankers, employing the limit state design. Two different cases have been investigated. In the first model, the corrosion degradation led to uniform thickness loss, whereas the mechanical properties were unchanged,...
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Rapid Yield Optimization of Miniaturized Microwave Passives by Response Features and Variable-Fidelity EM Simulations
PublicationThe operation of high-frequency devices, including microwave passive components, can be impaired by fabrication tolerances but also incomplete knowledge concerning operating conditions (temperature, input power levels) and material parameters (e.g., substrate permittivity). Although the accuracy of manufacturing processes is always limited, the effects of parameter deviations can be accounted for in advance at the design phase...
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A simplified method to assess the impact of ship-to-ship collision on the risk of tanker ship hull girder breaking accounting for the effect of ageing
PublicationOne of the most critical structural failures is the exceedance of the ship hull girder’s ultimate strength, which may result in hull breaking, and subsequent severe consequences, including loss of life and property as well as environmental damage in case of an oil spill. A cause for such loss of structural continuity can be triggered by a collision with another vessel. In addition, the ageing mechanisms of the hull structure could...
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The short-term flicker severity level measured in the industrial power system supplying the rolling mill motors
Open Research DataThe dataset presents a short-term flicker severity level measured on the bus bars of the main switchgear of the industrial power network for the supply of rolling mills. The data were obtained during an experiment whose purpose was to determine a level of short-term and long-term flicker caused by voltage fluctuations. In the virtual application of...
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Quality Modeling in Grid and Volunteer-Computing Systems
PublicationA model of computational quality in large-scale computing systems was presented in the previous chapter of this book. This model describes three quality attributes: performance, reliability and energy efficiency. We assumed that all processes in the system are incessantly ready to perform calculations and that communication between the processes occurs immediately. These assumptions are not true for grid and volunteer computing...
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The semi-Markov model of the process of appearance of sea-going ship propupsion system ability and inability states in application to determining the reliablity of these systems
PublicationThe article presents possible application of the theory of semi-Markov processes in creating the eight-state model of the process of appearance of the propulsion systems ability and inability states on sea-going vessels performing transportation tasks in a relatively long operating time t (t → ∞). The model has been proved to be able to be successfully used for determining the reliability of the abovementioned systems. The probability...
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Predicting the impact of traffic–induced vibrations on buildings using artificial neural networks
PublicationTraffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to a building, cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load–bearing elements or even a global structural collapse of the whole structure [1-4]. Vibrations measurements of real structures are costly and laborious, not justified in all cases. The aim of the paper is to create an original algorithm, to predict the negative dynamic impact on the examined residential building...
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Analiza niezawodności człowieka-operatora w kontekście bezpieczeństwa funkcjonalnego.
PublicationArtykuł przedstawia niektóre kwestie analizy warstwowego systemu zabezpieczeń instalacji podwyższonego ryzyka z uwzględnieniem analizy niezawodności człowieka HRA (human reliability analysis). Działania człowieka operatora w odniesieniu do systemu operatorskiego HSI (human system interface), w tym systemu alarmowego i potencjalnych błędów człowieka mogą mieć istotny wpływ na wyniki analiz probabilistycznych w procesie weryfikacji...
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Estimation of fracture toughness and shear yield stress of orthotropic materials in cutting with rotating tools
PublicationThe cutting force is an energetic effect of splitting material, and might be considered from a point of view of modern fracture mechanics. Forecasting of the shear plane angle in cutting broaden possibilities for modelling of the cutting process even for thin uncut chips. Such mathematical model has been developed here for description of the orthotropic materials’ cutting on the base of fracture theory, and includes work of separation...
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Global and regional economic inequality: Methods of measurement and evidences
PublicationThe lack of countries’ statistical income data, comparable across countries and years, seems to be the main reason of controversial conjectures concerning global inequality and its evolution over time. In the databases, which purport to collect income data on a worldwide scale, only some summary statistics (quantile income shares, means, Gini indices) are presented. Therefore, the development of efficient methods of extracting...
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ANALYSIS OF THE LOAD-CARRYING CAPACITY OF A HYDRODYNAMIC WATER-LUBRICATED BEARING IN A HYDROELECTRIC POwER PLANT
PublicationThe paper presents an analysis of the load-carrying capacity of a historic hydrodynamic water-lubricated radial bearing of an unconventional segment design installed in the Braniewo Hydroelectric Power Plant. The aim of the calculations was to determine whether the bearing operates in the conditions of hydrodynamic or mixed lubrication, as well as to establish the optimal geometry of the axial grooves allowing for the highest load-carrying...
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Confidence, Financial Literacy and Investment in Risky Assets: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
PublicationWe employ recent Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) microdata from the US to analyze the impacts of confidence in one's own financial knowledge, confidence in the economy, and objective financial literacy on investment in risky financial assets (equity and bonds) on both the extensive and intensive margins. Controlling for a rich set of covariates including risk aversion, we find that objective financial literacy is positively...
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A non-adiabatic wavepacket dynamical study of the low energy chargetransfer process in the S3+ + H collision
PublicationThe collisional system S3+ + H?S2+ + H+ has been studied using a time-dependent wavepacket methodologyin two-dimensions. Using available potential energy surfaces and coupling matrix elementsobtained from multireference ab initio calculations, five non-adiabatically coupled electronic states of1P symmetry have been included in the dynamical simulations. The collision has been studied in thelow energy regime of 1-10 eV. The wavepacket...
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The efficiency and reliability of pollutant removal in a hybrid constructed wetland with giant miscanthus and Jerusalem artichoke in Poland
PublicationIn this paper, we analysed the pollutant removal efficiency and reliability of a vertical and horizontal flow hybrid constructed wetland (CW) planted with giant miscanthus and Jerusalem artichoke. The wastewater treatment plant, located in south-eastern Poland, treated domestic sewage at an average flow rate of 1.2m3·d−1. The tests were carried out during. 5-years of operation of the sewage treatment plant (2011–2016). During this...
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Design centering of compact microwave components using response features and trust regions
PublicationFabrication tolerances, as well as uncertainties of other kinds, e.g., concerning material parameters or operating conditions, are detrimental to the performance of microwave circuits. Mitigating their impact requires accounting for possible parameter deviations already at the design stage. This involves optimization of appropriately defined statistical figures of merit such as yield. Alt-hough important, robust (or tolerance-aware)...
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Collision Risk-Informed Weather Routing for Sailboats
PublicationSelected COLREG rules, good seamanship and sheer common sense indicate that it is in a sailboat's interest to follow collision-free routes without relying on large power-driven ships to give way. Until now, however, no method has integrated a sailboat's weather routing with collision risk monitoring and collision avoidance. Therefore, a new deterministic approach to combine the above features within one method is introduced here....
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DESIGN LOGICAL LINGUISTIC MODELS TO CALCULATE NECESSITY IN TRUCKS DURING AGRICULTURAL CARGOES LOGISTICS USING FUZZY LOGIC
Publication: The study is aimed to develop the logic-linguistic models to design a number of rules for the correct calculation of the vehicles needed, taking into account the technical, technological, and weather and climate conditions of the harvesting and transport complex. The article has shown that the construction of the design of logic-linguistic models was not performed earlier to solve the problem of the agro-industrial production...
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The New 3D Printed Left Atrial Appendage Closure with a Novel Holdfast Device: A Pre-Clinical Feasibility Animal Study
PublicationMany patients undergoing cardiac surgery have risk factors for both atrial fibrillation and stroke. The left atrial appendage (LAA) is the primary site for thrombi formation. Therefore LAA occlusion devices should be tested for their ability to reduce future cerebral ischemic events in patients with high-risk of haemorrhage. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and feasibility of a novel left atrial appendage exclusion...
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A Proposed Machine Learning Model for Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations on Buildings
PublicationTraffic-induced vibrations may cause various damages to buildings located near the road, including cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real buildings are costly and laborious. Therefore the aim of the research is to propose the original numerical algorithm which allows us to predict, with high probability, the nega-tive dynamic impact of traffic-induced...
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Andrzej Chybicki dr inż.
PeopleA graduate of the Faculty of Electronics, Telecommunications and Informatics at the Gdańsk University of Technology, PhD in technical sciences in the field of IT specializing in distributed data processing in IT . Aimed at exploiting the achievements and knowledge in the field of industrial research. He cooperated with a number of companies including OpeGieka Elbląg, Reson Inc., Powel Sp. z o. o., Wasat, Better Solutions, the European...
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Mathematical modelling of the overhead contact line for the purpose of diagnostics of pantographs
PublicationThe overhead contact line (OCL) is the most effective way for supplying railway electric vehicles. The increase of the speed of the vehicles increases power consumption and requires ensuring proper cooperation of pantographs with OCL. The paper describes the novel mathematical model of the OCL system and the simulation results. The primary objective is a more accurate analysis to increase the reliability of the evaluation of monitoring...
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Reliability and types of diagnosis in the process of diesel engine operation
PublicationThe article presents complexity of the problem concerning development of diagnosis with defined reliability by a diagnosing system (SDG) on technical condition of marine combustion engines, especially main engines. It was shown that development of the final diagnosis, the so-called initial operation diagnosis, on the operational usability (fDG on PEx) of a main engine in particular, is not possible without prior development of...
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Numerical Modelling of Structures with Uncertainties
PublicationThe nature of environmental interactions, as well as large dimensions and complex structure of marine offshore objects, make designing, building and operation of these objects a great challenge. This is the reason why a vast majority of investment cases of this type include structural analysis, performed using scaled laboratory models and complemented by extended computer simulations. The present paper focuses on FEM modelling...
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THE EFFECT OF NOTCH DEPTH ON CTOD VALUES IN FRACTURE TESTS OF STRUCTURAL STEEL ELEMENTS
PublicationIn elements of steel structures working at low temperatures, there is a risk of appearance of brittle fracture. This risk is reduced through the use of certified materials having guaranteed strength at a given temperature. A method which is most frequently used to determine brittle fracture toughness is the Charpy impact test, preformed for a given temperature. For offshore structures intended to work in the arctic climat e, the...
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Detection and Direction-of-Arrival Estimation of Weak Spread Spectrum Signals Received with Antenna Array
PublicationThis paper presents a method for the joint detection and direction of arrival (DOA) estimation of low probability of detection (LPD) signals. The proposed approach is based on using the antenna array to receive spread-spectrum signals hidden below the noise floor. Array processing exploits the spatial correlation between phase-delayed copies of the signal and allows us to evaluate the parameter used to make the decision about the...
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Problemy zarządzania bezpieczeństwem obiektu przemysłowego podwyższonego ryzyka
PublicationW rozdziale przedstawiono wybrane zagadnienia dotyczące zarządzania bezpieczeństwem w zautomatyzowanym złożonym obiekcie podwyższonego ryzyka. Pokazano, że ryzyko strat można istotnie ograniczyć stosując odpowiednie rozwiązania techniczne w postaci warstwowego systemu zabezpieczeń, który obejmuje podstawowy system sterowania procesem, człowieka-operatora i system automatyki zabezpieczeniowej. Podkreślono znaczenie właściwego zaprojektowania...
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Assessing and Mitigating Ice-Jam Flood Hazards and Risks: A European Perspective
PublicationThe assessment and mapping of riverine flood hazards and risks is recognized by many countries as an important tool for characterizing floods and developing flood management plans. Often, however, these management plans give attention primarily to open-water floods, with ice-jam floods being mostly an afterthought once these plans have been drafted. In some Nordic regions, ice-jam floods can be more severe than open-water floods,...
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Application of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARSplines) Methodology for Screening of Dicarboxylic Acids Cocrystal Using 1D and 2D Molecular Descriptors
PublicationDicarboxylic acids (DiAs) are probably one of the most popular cocrystals formers. Due to the high hydrophilicity and non-toxicity, they are promising solubilizes of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). Although DiAs appear to be highly capable of forming multicomponent crystals with various compounds, some systems reported in the literature are physical mixtures the solid state without forming stable intermolecular complex....
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Reliability model of the crankshaft-piston assembly
PublicationThe laws that govern the durability of crankshaft-piston assembly friction nodes can be proved or at least derived or justified in an intuitive way. Operation of all the friction nodes is disturbed by external factors occurring with randomly changing intensity and also appearing at random. As the crankshaft-piston assembly friction nodes have a series structure and effects of those disturbances accumulate, their fitness for use...
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Przegląd historycznych i współczesnych wskaźników światła dziennego
PublicationArtykuł ten jest fragmentem pracy doktorskiej, która koncentruje się na badaniach roli nowoczesnych narzędzi projektowania światła dziennego w tworzeniu zrównoważonej architektury osiedli mieszkaniowych. Jednym z celów badań jest określenie, w jaki sposób współczesne narzędzia projektowe w zakresie światła dziennego mogą zaistnieć w projektowaniu urbanistycznym w Polsce. W artykule omówiono wybrane historyczne i współczesne parametry...
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Self-employment of women: an opportunity or the last resort?
PublicationIt is believed that automatization and technological changes will be the main drivers of work in the future. At the same time, there is a growing discussion about new forms of employment, such as self-employment. It may be either perceived as a chance for empowerment, through creating new job opportunities, that were not reachable previously, or as precarious work, with less stability, higher risk, and uncertain income. The main...
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Analiza wezbrania rzeki Kaczej w Gdyni po opadzie z 14 lipca 2016 roku
PublicationW połowie lipca 2016 r. w Trójmieście, zanotowano opad atmosferyczny o sumie przekraczającej 150 mm. Opadom deszczu od godzin popołudniowych dnia 14 lipca do godzin rannych 15 lipca towarzyszył okresami bardzo silny i gwałtowny wiatr początkowo z kierunku północno-wschodniego następnie z kierunku północno-zachodniego. Opisana sytuacja hydro-meteorologiczna spowodowała znaczne wezbrania w rzekach i potokach rejonu Zatoki Gdańskiej,...
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The Influence of COD Fraction Forms and Molecules Size on Hydrolysis Process Developed by Comparative OUR Studies in Activated Sludge Modelling
PublicationThe activated sludge models (ASMs) commonly used by the International Water Association (IWA) task group are based on chemical oxygen demand (COD) fractionations. However, the proper evaluation of COD fractions, which is crucial for modelling and especially oxygen uptake rate (OUR) predictions, is still under debate. The biodegradation of particulate COD is initiated by the hydrolysis process, which is an integral part of an ASM....