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Wyniki wyszukiwania dla: BAYES METHODS , DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS , ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT , RISK ANALYSIS
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Mariusz Figurski prof. dr hab. inż.
OsobyDyrektor Centrum Modelowania Meteorologicznego Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy. Urodził się 27 kwietnia 1964 roku w Łasinie. Egzamin maturalny złożył w 1983 roku po ukończeniu II Liceum Ogólnokształcącego im. Jana III Sobieskiego w Grudziądzu, Studia wyższe w trybie indywidualnym ukończył w 1989 (10.07.1989) na Wydziałach Elektromechanicznym i Inżynierii Lądowej i Geodezji Wojskowej Akademii...
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Trajectory planning for Service Ship during emergency STS transfer operation
PublikacjaIn this paper trajectory for approaching during emergency STS transfer operation with oil spill is considered as a sequence of navigation manoeuvres in specific navigational environment. The designed way points - ship positions and speed are determined as reference values to support navigator in decision making during steering and to mitigate the risk of collision which mostly results from exceeding the speed limit of approaching....
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Paweł Możejko dr hab.
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Between therapy effect and false-positive result in animal experimentation
PublikacjaDespite the animal models’ complexity, researchers tend to reduce the number of animals in experiments for expenses and ethical concerns. This tendency makes the risk of false-positive results, as statistical significance, the primary criterion to validate findings, often fails if testing small samples. This study aims to highlight such risks using an example from experimental regenerative therapy and propose a machine-learning...
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Możliwość oszacowania niezawodności silników o zapłonie samoczynnym z zastosowaniem teorii procesów semi-Markowa oraz podejmowania decyzji eksploatacyjnych z uwzględnieniem wiarygodności diagnozy o stanie technicznym tego rodzaju silników spalinowych = Possibility of estimating the reliability of diesel engines by applying the theory of semi-Markov processes and making operational decisions by considering reliability of diagnosis on technical state of this sort of combustion engines/
PublikacjaThe paper presents semi-Markov models of technical state transitions for diesel engines, useful for determining reliability of the engines. A possibility of application of a three-state model with a simplified matrix function, or even a two-state model, to determine reliability of the engines, has been described herein on examples of known from literature semi-Markov models, for the case when appropriate diagnosing systems (SDG)...
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Risk assessment for tram traffic on tramway bridges
PublikacjaMiejski transport szynowy wielu miastach stanowi istotny element systemu transportowego i jest przestrzennie rozwijającym się systemem zapewniającym mieszkańcom codzienną obsługę transportową. Bezpieczeństwo pasażerów transportu szynowego i użytkowników dróg jest jednym z najważniejszych czynników, który należy uwzględnić w trakcie projektowania infrastruktury oraz w ocenie operacyjnej systemu miejskiego transportu tramwajowego....
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublikacjaThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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Zarządzanie programami badawczymi z uwzględnieniem filozofii nauki
PublikacjaZarządzanie projektami i programami badawczymi powinno być realizowane z zastosowaniem specyficznych metod zarządzania ze względu na specyfikę badań naukowych. W tym rozdziale zaprezentowano wyniki analiz mających na celu lepsze zrozumienie roli zarządzania programem badawczym z następujących perspektyw: analizy rzeczywistości projektów badawczych, zarządzania projektem i programem oraz filozofii nauki. Praktycznym zastosowaniem...
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Analiza Niezawodności Człowieka w Ramach Funkcji związanych z Bezpieczeństwem w Przykładowej Instalacji
PublikacjaW analizie bezpieczeństwa funkcjonalnego systemów sterowania i zabezpieczeń należy określić wymagany poziom nienaruszalności bezpieczeństwa SIL w procesie analizy ryzyka, a następnie zweryfikować ten poziom stosując odpowiednie metody modelowania probabilistycznego. Działania człowieka mogą mieć istotny wpływ na realizację funkcji bezpieczeństwa. Wpływ ten ocenia się na podstawie wyników analizy niezawodności człowieka HRA. W niniejszym...
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Estimating inequality aversion from subjective assessments of the just noticeable differences in welfare
PublikacjaResearch background: In Economics, the concept of inequality aversion corresponds with the concept of risk aversion in the literature on making decision under uncertainty. The risk aversion is estimated on the basis of subjective reactions of people to various lottery prospects. In Economics, however, an efficient method of estimating inequality aversion has not been developed yet. Purpose of the article: The main aim of this paper...
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Adam Dąbrowski dr inż.
OsobyAdam Dąbrowski uzyskał stopień doktora nauk inżynieryjno-technicznych w dyscyplinie inżynieria mechaniczna na Politechnice Gdańskiej oraz ukończył studia II stopnia na kierunku mechatronika na Technische Universität Hamburg a także double degree Engineering and Management of Space Systems na Hochschule Bremen. Posiada doświadczenie przemysłowe (Instytut Lotnictwa w Warszawie, SICK AG w Hamburgu, Blue Dot Solutions w Gdańsku, Niemieckie...
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Forewarned Is Forearmed: Machine Learning Algorithms for the Prediction of Catheter-Induced Coronary and Aortic Injuries
PublikacjaCatheter-induced dissections (CID) of coronary arteries and/or the aorta are among the most dangerous complications of percutaneous coronary procedures, yet the data on their risk factors are anecdotal. Logistic regression and five more advanced machine learning techniques were applied to determine the most significant predictors of dissection. Model performance comparison and feature importance ranking were evaluated. We identified...
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Optimization-based stacked machine-learning method for seismic probability and risk assessment of reinforced concrete shear walls
PublikacjaEfficient seismic risk assessment aids decision-makers in formulating citywide risk mitigation plans, providing insights into building performance and retrofitting costs. The complexity of modeling, analysis, and post-processing of the results makes it hard to fast-track the seismic probabilities, and there is a need to optimize the computational time. This research addresses seismic probability and risk assessment of reinforced...
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Engineering and Management of Space Systems (EMSS) - an international joint Master's double-degree program
PublikacjaDynamic development of the space sector of European, and especially of Polish and German economies results in a necessity for suitable Higher Education Institution graduates. The increasing digitization, distribution and networking of technical systems leads to the necessity of a degree programme teaching “the systems view” and “interdisciplinarity” methods and skills. Furthermore, it is necessary to consider the entire life cycle...
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Mathematical Modeling of Ice Dynamics as a Decision Support Tool in River Engineering
PublikacjaThe prediction of winter flooding is a complicated task since it is affected by many meteorological and hydraulic factors. Typically, information on river ice conditions is based on historical observations, which are usually incomplete. Recently, data have been supplemented by information extracted from satellite images. All the above mentioned factors provide a good background of the characteristics of ice processes, but are not...
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Conception of interactive information and decision support system - model and evaluation
PublikacjaThis article presents conception of interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management. The emphasis of the project is on real-time analysis and multi-media information, and support of distributed and mobile clients through the Internet.
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Risk and Decision Analysis
Czasopisma -
Knowledge management - decision support in a workflow system
PublikacjaPrzedstawiono nowatorski model zarzadzania wiedza w procesach decyzyjnych w systemie opartym na przeplywie ''workflow''.
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Analysis of Agricultural and Engineering Systems using Simulation Decomposition
PublikacjaThis paper focuses on the analysis of agricultural and engineering processes using simulation decomposition (SD). SD is a technique that utilizes Monte Carlo simulations and distribution decomposition to visually evaluate the source and the outcome of different portions of data. Here, SD is applied to three distinct processes: a model problem, a nondestructive evaluation testing system, and an agricultural food-water energy system....
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Bridging challenges of clinical decision support systems with a semantic approach. A case study on breast cancer
PublikacjaThe integration of Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) in nowadays clinical environments has not been fully achieved yet. Although numerous approaches and technologies have been proposed since 1960, there are still open gaps that need to be bridged. In this work we present advances from the established state of the art, overcoming some of the most notorious reported difficulties in: (i) automating CDSS, (ii) clinical workflow...
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Ontology as a Tool for the IT Management Standards Support
PublikacjaIn this paper the authors discuss the initial idea of using ontologies to model requirements of the standards that support IT management processes. The Open Group Architecture Framework (TOGAF) is set as an example. A need for transition from the generic model do the organization-specific one is indicated. The described example serves as a ground for considering the usefulness of such modeling approach in the wider spectrum of...
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Opracowanie i wprowadzenie nowoczesnego systemu utrzymania ruchu urządzeń opartego na strategii planowo – zapobiegawczej na obiekcie offshore
PublikacjaW pracy przedstawiono metodykę utrzymania ruchu maszyn i urządzeń na obiekcie offshore. Opracowany autorski system utrzymania ruchu, który został wdrożony na morskiej platformie wydobywczej „Petrobaltic” gdzie do przesyłu i przetwarzania danych wykorzystano dostępną infrastrukturę informatyczną. Założenia realizowano z wykorzystaniem metod naukowych takich jak analiza case study, metody eksperckie i inne. Pracę zrealizowano w ośmiu...
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Urban Mentoring as a new polish management technique in participatory planning
PublikacjaA decade of experience in implementation of numerous urban modernization projects in Poland resulted in a lively debate on socialization of the planning process, in which the matter of the public space quality has become the center of gravity. In those years, transformation from the classic administrative model of „bureaucracy planning” to the model of „management planning” has not been complete. The socialist primacy of the public...
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Knowledge Risk Management in Organizations
PublikacjaPurpose – Shorter product life cycles, greater demands from consumers for sustainable and eco-friendly products and services, and thus the need for constant market observation make today’s business environment a rather complex one, the one that is characterized not only by a number of opportunities but also by a number of risks. These risks are increasingly related to knowledge which, in turn, underlines the need for an updated...
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Decision analysis
Kursy Online -
Verification of agent system for it project management support
PublikacjaThis article is a continuation of article series telling about research about possibility of using agent system to information technology evaluation. Following article presents full conception of exploiting agent system and shows how it can support some managers works, especially in taking correct management method and information tool for project management. In this article the agent system that based on knowledge and can process...
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Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach
PublikacjaThe paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk...
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The Conception of Decision-Making Support System for ComplexEnergetic System on Example of Ship Propulsion System
PublikacjaIn paper, the conception of decision-making support system for complex energetic system on example of ship propulsion system has been presented. Diversity of conditions, information overload and very often contradiction of decision-making criteria and time constraints result in difficulties in making right (rational) decision without using more or less expanded information processing systems (eg. database systems, expert systems,...
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Application of Multivariate Analysis Methods in Welding Engineering
PublikacjaPhenomena and processes taking place during welding are usually very complex and, for this reason, should be described using multivariate methods. The article discusses the methodological basis and selected application areas as regards the solving of welding problems using statistical multivariate methods. In addition, the article presents exemplary applications of the design of experiment, multiple regression analysis, cluster...
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A Novel Framework for Decision Support System in Human Resource Management
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Virtual Engineering Objects: Effective Way of Knowledge Representation and Decision Making
PublikacjaThis paper presents a knowledge representation case study by constructing Decisional DNA of engineering objects. Decisional DNA, as a knowledge representation structure not only offers great possibilities on gathering explicit knowledge of formal decision events but also it is a powerful tool for decision-making process. The concept of Virtual engineering Object (VEO), which is a knowledge and experience representation of engineering...
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Akustyczna analiza parametrów ruchu drogowego z wykorzystaniem informacji o hałasie oraz uczenia maszynowego
PublikacjaCelem rozprawy było opracowanie akustycznej metody analizy parametrów ruchu drogowego. Zasada działania akustycznej analizy ruchu drogowego zapewnia pasywną metodę monitorowania natężenia ruchu. W pracy przedstawiono wybrane metody uczenia maszynowego w kontekście analizy dźwięku (ang.Machine Hearing). Przedstawiono metodologię klasyfikacji zdarzeń w ruchu drogowym z wykorzystaniem uczenia maszynowego. Przybliżono podstawowe...
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Functional Safety and Cybersecurity Analysis and Management in Smart Manufacturing Systems
PublikacjaThis chapter addresses some of the issues of the integrated functional safety and cybersecurity analysis and management with regard to selected references and the functional safety standards: IEC 61508, IEC 61511, ISO 13849-1 and IEC 62061, and a cybersecurity standard IEC 62443 that concerns the industrial automation and control systems. The objective is to mitigate the vulnerability of industrial systems that include the information...
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Indykatory mobilne GIS w analizie ruchu miejskiego
PublikacjaW ramach artykułu autorzy przedstawią możliwości monitorowania sytuacji komunikacyjnej miasta z wykorzystaniem autorskiego i dedykowanego systemu monitorowania ruchu w mieście, opartego o pakiet oprogramowania stacjonarnego i mobilnego przeznaczonego dla korporacji taxi. Celem publikacji jest przedstawienie założeń optymalnych i minimalnych do realizacji monitoringu ruchu w mieście. Przywołane zostaną autorskie próby wdrożeń rozwiązań...
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Decision analysis (l/lab) winter 2020/21
Kursy OnlineDecision analysis (l/lab)_winter 2020/21
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Qualitative data analysis methods
Kursy OnlineThis is the continuation of Qualitatative Data Analysis Methods course provided online
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Decision Support Based on Optimal Collision Avoidance Path and Collision Risk
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The risk assessment of adverse events of nursing activities as the element of quality management in healhcare
PublikacjaThe purpose of the paper is to present MedCARVER+Shock method and Pareto analysis and its usability for the risk assessment of adverse events of nursing activities. 888 activities carried out by all 190 nurses working at the District Hospital X located in Poland were taken into account. During the research the qualitative approach was used. As the result sixteen groups of nursing activities causing the highest risk of adverse events...
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Topological Methods in Nonlinear Analysis
Czasopisma -
A Model for Risk Assessment and Management of Construction Projects in Urban Conditions
PublikacjaThe authors are seeking new methods for improving the efficiency of the investments associated with the maintenance and operation of existing civil engineering structures. It is demonstrated how the knowledge about the elements of construction and operation phases and their relationships, combined with monitoring data can be used for more effective management of the risks associated with civil engineering projects. The methodology...
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DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
Czasopisma -
Diagnostyka eksploatacyjna okrętowych silników spalinowych - tłokowych i turbinowych
PublikacjaW monografii przedstawiono wybrane zagadnienia diagnostyki technicznej silników spalinowych dużej mocy, zarówno tłokowych, jak i turbinowych, ukierunkowane na eksploatację okrętowych (i nie tylko) systemów energetycznych, w których występują tego typu silniki. W początkowej części opracowania zaproponowano koncepcję systemowego ujęcia diagnostyki eksploatacyjnej silników okrętowych w aspekcie obowiązujących standardów światowych...
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Smart experience engineering to support collaborative design problems based on constraints modelling
PublikacjaEngineering design is a knowledge intensive process. Experts' experiences from different product life-cycle stages play a key role in problem solving during design decision making by linking up knowledge to find better solutions for a specific design problem. Different approaches have been used to support Collaborative and Concurrent Product Design, such as Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP) modelling. Additionally, due to the...
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The FEM analysis of pressure installation elements after simulated accidental overheating
PublikacjaThe paper presents innovative analysis focused on the safety aspects of existing pressure installation operation after overheating accidents. Results presented here can be applied in decision-making process concerning further operation of existing pressure installation after cooling system failure. In this paper the results of FEM analysis performed for a straight pipe and 90 degrees elbow, made of super duplex stainless steel,...
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Effective Decision-Making in Supply Chain Management
PublikacjaProper decision-making in Supply Chain Management (SCM) is crucial for an appropriately functioning mechanisms. The paper presents how IT technologies can impact on an organization and process realization. Especially Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) standard and the Cloud Computing (CC) paradigms are taken into account. A general model of decision-making is proposed and based on a specific practical example is analyzed using...
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ENGINEERING FAILURE ANALYSIS
Czasopisma -
Conception of interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air management
PublikacjaThis article presents the conception of interactive system for air quality management.
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Smart Knowledge Engineering for Cognitive Systems: A Brief Overview
PublikacjaCognition in computer sciences refers to the ability of a system to learn at scale, reason with purpose, and naturally interact with humans and other smart systems, such as humans do. To enhance intelligence, as well as to introduce cognitive functions into machines, recent studies have brought humans into the loop, turning the system into a human–AI hybrid. To effectively integrate and manipulate hybrid knowledge, suitable technologies...
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Prognostic and diagnostic capabilities of OOBN in assessing investment risk of complex construction projects
PublikacjaModelling decision problems using Bayesian networks is extremely valuable especially in case of issues related to uncertainty; it is also very helpful in constructing and understanding visual representation of the elements and their relations. This approach facilitates subsequent application of Bayesian networks, however there can be situations where using simple Bayesian networks is impractical or even ineffective. The aim of...
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Four Degree-of-Freedom Hydrodynamic Maneuvering Model of a Small Azipod-Actuated Ship With Application to Onboard Decision Support Systems
PublikacjaThe main contribution of this paper is a numerical ship motion model of NTNU’s research vessel Gunnerus, capturing the surge, sway, roll, and yaw dynamics when sailing in uniform and steady currents. The model utilizes a crossflow drag formulation for the transverse viscous loads, and it includes a nonlinear formulation for the propulsion and steering loads provided by two azipod thrusters. A wide range of experimental data obtained...