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Search results for: probability
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Probability modelling of vessel collisions
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Impact of probability distribution on the uncertainty of resistance measurement
PublicationThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of resistance: 100 G. The analysis of the uncertainty...
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Empirical Probability Distributions with Unknown Number of Components
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Web Based Application for Probability Job Scheduling
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Floodable length curves based on probability of survival.
PublicationPrzedstawiono możliwość obliczanie krzywych grodziowych dla statku o mieszanym podziale grodziowym dla zadanej wartości mnożnika s, traktowanego jako parametr. Krzywe takie, dotąd nie stosowane, mogą znacznie ułatwić optymalizowanie podziału grodziowego względem wskaźnika niezatapialności.
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Probability of flooding a compartment (the pi factor) - a critique and a proposal
PublicationArtykuł podaje krytyczny przegląd stanu wiedzy dot. obliczania prawdopodobirństwa zatopienia przedziału (mnożnika pi), ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem projektu badawczego ''Harder'' oraz podaje poprawne rozwiązanie dotyczące tego mnożnika. Kończy się propozycją przepisu do zamieszczenia w konwencji SOLAS.
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Electric field dependence of the probability of charge carriers recombination
PublicationBadano wpływ zewnętrznego pola elektrycznego na prawdopodobieństwo rekombinacji nośników ładunku w molekularnych ciałach stałych. Przybliżenie analityczne wykazuje, że prawdopodobieństwo to maleje ze wzrostem pola elektrycznego. Otrzymane wyniki mogą być pomocne w wyjaśnieniu spadku wydajności elektroluminescencji w jednowarstwowych diodach elektroluminescencyjnych w zakresie wysokich pól elektrycznych.
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Probability analysis of life Raft capsizing on rough sea
PublicationArtykuł przedstawia metodę obliczania prawdopodobieństwa przewrócenia się tratwy ratunkowej za pomocą symulacji ruchu na fali nieregularnej. Przedstawiono obliczenia ruchów tratwy na falowaniu nieregularnym, którego symulacje wykonano dla znanej funkcji gęstości widmowej falowania dla Bałtyku oraz niedeterministycznego (stochastycznego) rozkładu amplitudy fali.
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Irregular variations in GPS time series by probability and noise analysis
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The application of impedance measurements for the determination of the probability of the course of corrosion processes
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Reducing the Probability of Failure in Manufacturing Equipment by Quantitative FTA Analysis
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Incorporating installation effects into the probability analysis of controlled modulus columns
PublicationThis technical report presents the probabilistic analysis which integrates the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with random field theory to model the load–displacement behavior of Controlled Modulus Columns (CMCs) in overconsolidated Poznań clay. Presented study focuses on the practical aspects of statistical analysis of geotechnical data, numerical model development, and results evaluation. Variability and spatial distribution of...
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Evaluation of thermal cracking probability for asphalt concretes with high percentage of RAP
PublicationThe paper presents determination of the probability of thermal cracking of asphalt mixtures with different reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) content on the basis of laboratory tests and analytical evaluation using thermal stress development method. Probability was evaluated taking into consideration: the type and gradation of the mixture and the quality and content of RAP. Thermal stresses were determined using two models: elastic and...
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On the Handling of Outliers in the GNSS Time Series by Means of the Noise and Probability Analysis
PublicationThe data pre-analysis plays a significant role in the noise determination. The most important issue is to find an optimum criterion for outliers removal, since their existence can affect any further analysis. The noises in the GNSS time series are characterized by spectral index and amplitudes that can be determined with a few different methods. In this research, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was used. The noise amplitudes...
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Family business experience and the probability of starting a venture: gender differences in Poland
PublicationThe aim of this study is to analyse whether the experience of working in a family member’s business is related differently to the assessed probabilities of men and women starting their own new venture in the future. The research is conducted on a sample of 334 Polish undergraduate students. Poland is an efficiency-driven European economy with a substantial gender gap in entrepreneurship. The results obtained indicate that the relationship...
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Probability of limit state of bar structures. A modified Monte Carlo procedure
PublicationPraca poświecona jest zagadnieniom niezawodności i probabilistycznej analizie stanów granicznych układów prętowych. Główną ideę pracy stanowi rozkład prawdopodobieństwa stanu granicznego nośności ustroju, zdefiniowany na podstawie specjalnej procedury symulacyjnej Monte Carlo. W procedurze tej istotne jest wyznaczanie mnożników obciążenia granicznego w każdym kroku symulacyjnym. Charakterystykami rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa stanu...
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INFLUENCE OF WRONGLY ASSUMED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF RESISTANCE MEASUREMENT BY TECHNICAL METHOD
PublicationThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The most commonly used distribution is the rectangular distribution. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of two resistances:...
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Probability distribution of flicker noise in AuNPdecorated graphene–Si Schottky barrier diode
PublicationWe present results of the probability distribution analysis of flicker noise generated in Au nanoparticle (AuNP) decorated graphene–Si Schottky barrier diodes with and without yellow light illumination (592 nm), close to the localized surface plasmon resonance in the AuNPs (586 nm). The AuNPs occupy imperfections in the single-layer graphene and reduce the flicker noise intensity generated in the graphene layer. The estimated probability...
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Determination of collision criteria and causation factors appropriate to a model for estimating the probability of maritime accidents
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Probability measures of likelihood of diagnosis of the technical state of main combustion engines of sea-going ships
PublicationW artykule uzasadniono potrzebę rozróżniania pojęć wiarygodności diagnozy i trafności diagnozy przy podejmowaniu decyzji eksploatacyjnych. Wyprowadzono wzór na prawdopodobieństwo sformułowania prawidłowej diagnozy jako miary wiarygodności diagnozy. Do wyprowadzenia tego wzoru zastosowano teorię procesów semimarkowskich oraz wzór Bayesa na prawdopodobieństwo warunkowe. Podano także inne probabilistyczne miary wiarygodności diagnozy....
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A new quantum-inspired approach to reduce the blocking probability of demands in resource-constrained path computation scenarios
PublicationThis article presents a new approach related with end-to-end routing, which, owing to quantum-inspired mecha-nisms of prediction of availability of network resources, results in improved blocking probability of incoming requests to establish transmission paths. The proposed scheme has been analyzed for three network topologies and several scenarios of network load. Obtained results show a significant (even twofold) reduction of...
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Co-occurrence probability of water balance elements in a mountain catchment on the example of the upper Nysa Kłodzka River
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Probability estimation of the city’s energy efficiency improvement as a result of using the phase change materials in heating networks
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Optimization-based stacked machine-learning method for seismic probability and risk assessment of reinforced concrete shear walls
PublicationEfficient seismic risk assessment aids decision-makers in formulating citywide risk mitigation plans, providing insights into building performance and retrofitting costs. The complexity of modeling, analysis, and post-processing of the results makes it hard to fast-track the seismic probabilities, and there is a need to optimize the computational time. This research addresses seismic probability and risk assessment of reinforced...
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A framework to analyse the probability of accidental hull girder failure considering advanced corrosion degradation for risk-based ship design
PublicationShip’s hull girder failure could result from maritime accident that can cause human life loss, environmental disaster, and major economic impacts. In risk-based ship design paradigm, accounting for rare phenomena (e.g. ship-ship collision or grounding) is important to provide safe and durable structure. In-service corrosion-induced hull degradation should be considered at the design stage, as it can significantly affect structural...
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Burst loss probability for the combination of extended offset time based service differentiation scheme and PPS in optical burst switching network
PublicationIn the paper analytical model for calculating burst loss probabilities for the combination of two service differentiation schemes for OBS network namely: extended offset time based scheme and PPS (Preemption Priority Schemes) is revised. Moreover authors introduce analytical model for calculating burst loss probabilities for an optical path when OBS network employs both service differentiation schemes and JET signaling. The comparison...
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Probability of second live birth after first natural and medically assisted reproduction‐mediated live birth: A historical cohort study
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Badanie rozkładów parametrów sygnału mowy w zastosowaniach do prognozowania prawdopodobieństwa popełnienia błędów w systemach identyfikacji mówców = Examining distribution of speech signal parameters for the prognosis of error probability in speaker verification systems
PublicationPrzedmiotem pracy jest system identyfikacji mówców w sposób zależny od tekstu ("text dependent''). Dokonano analizy wielu różnych wypowiedzi kilkudziesięciu mówców. Zastosowana metoda parametryzacji to metoda oparta na wynikach analizy cepstralnej sygnału mowy. Zdefiniowane zostały nowe parametry skojarzone z elementarnymi zdarzeniami w procesie weryfikacji mówców. Na tej podstawie dokonano estymacji funkcji gęstości prawdopodobieństwa...
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Equivalence of equicontinuity concepts for Markov operators derived from a Schur-like property for spaces of measures
PublicationVarious equicontinuity properties for families of Markov operators have been – and still are – used in the study of existence and uniqueness of invariant probability for these operators, and of asymptotic stability. We prove a general result on equivalence of equicontinuity concepts. It allows comparing results in the literature and switching from one view on equicontinuity to another, which is technically convenient in proofs....
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On the time behaviour of Okazaki fragments
PublicationW pracy wyprowadzono wzory na prawdopodobieństwo, że podczas procesu replikacji DNA w chwili t pojawi się n fragmentów Okazaki.
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On sequences of the white noises
PublicationPodano dowód mocnego prawa wielkich liczb dla funkcjonałów gaussowskich.
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Density smoothness estimation problem using a wavelet approach
PublicationIn this paper we consider a smoothness parameter estimation problem for a density function. The smoothness parameter of a function is defined in terms of Besov spaces. This paper is an extension of recent results (K. Dziedziul, M. Kucharska, B. Wolnik, Estimation of the smoothness parameter ). The construction of the estimator is based on wavelets coefficients. Although we believe that the effective estimation of the smoothness...
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A Note on a Problem Posed by D. E. Knuth on a Satisfiability Recurrence
PublicationWe resolve a conjecture proposed by D.E. Knuth concerning a recurrence arising in the satisfiability problem. Knuth's recurrence resembles recurrences arising in the analysis of tries, in particular PATRICIA tries, and asymmetric leader election. We solve Knuth's recurrence exactly and asymptotically, using analytic techniques such as the Mellin transform and analytic depoissonization.
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Asymptotic behaviour in the set of nonhomogeneous chains of stochastic operators
PublicationWe study different types of asymptotic behaviour in the set of (infinite dimensional) nonhomogeneous chains of stochastic operators acting on L1(μ) spaces. In order to examine its structure we consider different norm and strong operator topologies. To describe the nature of the set of nonhomogeneous chains of Markov operators with a particular limit behaviour we use the category theorem of Baire. We show that the geometric structure...
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Application of theory of semi-Markov processes to determining distribution of probabilistic process of marine accidents resulting from colission of ships
PublicationIn this paper is presented possible application of the theory of semi-Markov processes to elaborating an eight-state model of the process of occurrence of serviceability state and unserviceability states of sea-going ships making critical manoeuvres during their entering and leaving the ports. In the analysis it was taken into account that sea-going ships are in service for a very long time t (t → ∞). The model was elaborated to...
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Hazards of a flooding event in the city of Gdansk and possible forms of preventing the phenomenon – case study
PublicationThe main objective is to examine the urban flood hazard in the city of Gdansk and to determine the possibilities of preventing this phenomenon. Hydrological and hydraulic modeling was used for the case study analysis of urban flood in Strzyża basin, applying the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS systems. The result of modeling with the assumption of torrential rainfall with a duration of t = 1 h (from 35 to 58 mm) is the probability of pluvial...
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Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study
PublicationThis paper presents a model to analyse the risk of two common marine accidents: collision and grounding. Attention is focused on oil tankers since they pose the highest environmental risks. A case study in selected areas of the Gulf of Finland in ice-free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a formula for risk calculation that considers both the probability of an unwanted event and its consequences. The model can be decomposed...
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EXTREME RAINFALLS AS A CAUSE OF URBAN FLASH FLOODS; A CASE STUDY OF THE ERBIL-KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ
PublicationAim of the study The current paper aims to give a detailed evaluation and analysis of some extreme rainfall events that happened in the last decade in terms of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution, intensity rate, and exceedance probability. Moreover, it examines the effects of each analysed aspect on the resulting flash floods in the studied area. Material and methods In their glossary of meteorology, American Meteorology...
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How to apply the probabilistic model of measurement processes successfully
PublicationApplicational aspects of probabilistic model of measurement processes, proposed by G.B. Rossi, are considered. The main idea of the model - using of Bayes-Laplace postulate for solution of inverse probability problem, is substituted by Fisher's concept of the likelihood function, expressed in the data translated format. This approach gives a clear-sighted solution of inverse probability. Some recommendations for application of...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of limit states of structures : The Monte Carlo simulation
PublicationThe main issue of the paper is the probabilistic sensitivity of the limit states of structures with respect to selected input design variables. Attempt to the problem is done by the dedicated Monte Carlo simulation procedure. Basic design variables are random variables of given probability distributions, presented in the form of random numbers. Uni-parametrical increment of the dominant basic variable (basic variables) is done,...
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Why is the cubic structure preferred in newly formed ice?
PublicationMolecular dynamics was employed to explain the preference for the cubic structure in newly formed crystals of ice. The results showed that in supercooled liquid water the molecules connected by hydrogen bonds are more likely to adopt relative orientations similar to the ones characteristic for cubic ice. The observed preference for certain relative orientations of molecules in the hydrogen-bonded pairs results in the higher probability...
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FACTORS AFFECTING THE CONCLUSION OF AN ARRANGEMENT IN RESTRUCTURING PROCEEDINGS: EVIDENCE FROM POLAND
PublicationThe EU Restructuring Directive (2019/1023) requires Member States to provide a preventive restructuring framework for financially distressed entities that remain viable or are likely to readily restore economic viability. The first step to a successful restructuring is the approval of an arrangement between the debtor and creditors. The main research objective of the article is to identify factors affecting the conclusion of an...
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Factors affecting the conclusion of an arrangement in restructuring proceedings: evidence from Poland
PublicationThe EU Restructuring Directive (2019/1023) requires Member States to provide a preventive restructuring framework for financially distressed entities that remain viable or are likely to readily restore economic viability. The first step to a successful restructuring is the approval of an arrangement between the debtor and creditors. The main research objective of the article is to identify factors affecting the conclusion of an...
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Reliability-Based Stability Analysis of a Baltic Cliff by the Combined Response Surface Method
PublicationA simple, straightforward computational procedure was proposed, incorporating the Response Surface Method (RSM) linked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method and the Point Estimate Method (PEM). PEM samples make it possible to analyse the sensitivity of the cliff’s stability to variation in subsoil parameters and to reduce the number of random variables of the problem. The proposed methods were tested in two cases:...
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Employing flowgraphs for forward route reconstruction in video surveillance system
PublicationPawlak’s flowgraphs were utilized as a base idea and knowledge container for prediction and decision making algorithms applied to experimental video surveillance system. The system is used for tracking people inside buildings in order to obtain information about their appearance and movement. The fields of view of the cameras did not overlap. Therefore, when an object was moving through unsupervised areas, prediction was needed...
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Detection and Mitigation of GPS Spoofing Based on Antenna Array Processing
PublicationIn this article authors present an application of spatial processing methods for GPS spoofing detection and mitigation. In the first part of this article, a spoofing detection method, based on phase delay measurements, is proposed. Accuracy and precision of phase delay estimation is assessed for various qualities of received signal. Spoofing detection thresholds are determined. Efficiency of this method is evaluated in terms of...
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Weak Stability of Centred Quadratic Stochastic Operators
PublicationWe consider the weak convergence of iterates of so-called centred quadratic stochastic operators. These iterations allow us to study the discrete time evolution of probability distributions of vector-valued traits in populations of inbreeding or hermaphroditic species, whenever the offspring’s trait is equal to an additively perturbed arithmetic mean of the parents’ traits. It is shown that for the existence of a weak limit, it...
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Altruists will be altruists, but what about individualists? The role of future time perspective and social value orientation in volunteers’ declarations to continue engagement in three time horizons
PublicationVolunteering involves caring for the outcomes of others and typically long-term orientation so that one can achieve goals that are not always clearly visible in the short term. As with any activity, volunteering attracts people of different social value orientations – some rather individualistic, some rather altruistic. The aim of the study was to find out whether the future time perspective, which promotes thinking about future...
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The impact of hydrological research, municipal authorities, and residents on rainwater management in Gdańsk (Poland) in the process of adapting the city to climate change
PublicationAim of the study The city of Gdańsk faces changing climatic conditions that result in a higher frequency of extreme weather events. In response to the increasingly frequent appearance of flash floods, scientific research was carried out on changes in the probability of the occurrence of maximum daily precipitation in Gdańsk. The purpose of this paper is to show the role of hydrological research (science), decisions of local authorities...
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Game Theory Analysis of Bidding for a Construction Contract
PublicationThe authors are concerned with a bidding problem. There are two companies (P1 and P2) bidding for a highway construction project. In order to be more competitive, P1 considers buying a new gravel pit near the construction site. The basic cost of the pit is known to both companies. However, there is also an additional, hidden, cost (C) known only to P1. P2 is uncertain whether the hidden cost is C = 0 or C = x. P1 plans to bid for...