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Search results for: uncertainty of model parameters
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Uncertainty Quantification in Experimental Structural Dynamics Identification of Composite Material Structures
PublicationComposite materials are widely used in manufacture of aerospace and wind energy structural components. These load carrying structures are subjected to dynamic time-varying loading conditions. Robust structural dynamics identification procedure impose tight constraints on the quality of modal models estimates obtained from vibration experiments. Modal testing results are influenced by numerous factors introducing uncertainty to...
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Multi-fidelity robust aerodynamic design optimization under mixed uncertainty
PublicationThe objective of this paper is to present a robust optimization algorithm for computationally efficient airfoil design under mixed (inherent and epistemic) uncertainty using a multi-fidelity approach. This algorithm exploits stochastic expansions derived from the Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC) technique to create surrogate models utilized in the optimization process. A combined NIPC expansion approach is used, where both...
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Analysis of measurement uncertainty for contact-less method used to measure the position of catenary contact wire, performed with the use of Monte Carlo method
PublicationCurrently the majority of main railway lines in Europe are electrified, and electric trains have the biggest share in the entire amount of rail transport. Reliability of electrified railways is closely related to the issue of supplying traction vehicles with energy. The problems connected with diagnostics of energy consumption node, namely the contact line and the current collector, are therefore of fundamental importance for maintaining...
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Determining and verifying the safety integrity level of the safety instrumented systems with the uncertainty and security aspects
PublicationSafety and security aspects consist of two different group of functional requirements for the control and protection systems. In the paper it is proposed that the security analysis results can be used as a factor increasing or decreasing the risk level. It concerns a process of determining required safety integrity level of given safety functions. The authors propose a new approach for functional safety risk analysis. In this case...
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Autonomous Ship Utility Model Parameter Estimation Utilising Extended Kalman Filter
PublicationIn this paper, a problem of autonomous ship utility model identification for control purposes is considered. In particular, the problem is formulated in terms of model parameter estimation (one-step-ahead prediction). This is a complex task due to lack of measurements of the parameter values, their time-variability and structural uncertainty introduced by the available models. In this work, authors consider and compare two utility...
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An optimized dissolved oxygen concentration control in SBR with the use of adaptive and predictive control schemes
PublicationThis paper addresses the problem of optimizing control of the aeration process in a water resource recovery facility (WRRF) using sequencing batch reactor (SBR), one that affects the efficiency of wastewater treatment by stimulating metabolic reactions of microorganisms through dissolved oxygen (DO) level control, and accounts for the predominant part of operating costs. Two independent approaches to DO control algorithm design...
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Integration and verification of meteorological observations and NWP model data for the local GNSS tomography
PublicationGNSS meteorology applies the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) to derive information about the state of the atmosphere (particularly troposphere). The tomography is one of the methods used in GNSS meteorology. The input data of GNSS tomography are the signal troposphere delays, results of GNSS data processing and additionally meteorological observations and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models data. Different types...
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NON-LINE ANALYSIS OF STIFFNESS IN COMPRESSION CONDITIONS
PublicationThe analyzes were aimed at demonstrating the influence of parameters describing the deformation of the structure on the uncertainty of critical force, and the impact of technological imperfections on stress uncertainty in compression conditions. In a linear buckling analysis, the problem is considered only for the initial, permanent state of the stiffness matrix. In the case of demonstrating the influence of initial deformations...
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Risk factor assessment in agricultural supply chain by fuzzy logic
PublicationSignificant uncertainty characterizes the harvest period. This aspect is due to various risks impacting agrifood supply chains. The occurrence of risks is due to hazards: technological failures, technical breakdowns, or adverse weather conditions. Hence, the operational time of the agricultural supply chain during the harvest period increases due to such risk factors. In essence, some hazards are fuzzy, and the nature of most threats...
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Soft-decision schemes for radar estimation of elevation at low grazing angles
PublicationIn modern radars, the problem of estimating elevation angle at low grazing angles is typically solved using superresolution techniques. These techniques often require one to provide an estimate of the number of waveforms impinging the array, which one can accomplish using model selection techniques. In this paper, we investigate the performance of an alternative approach, based on the Bayesian-like model averaging. The Bayesian...
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The loop impedance measurement
Open Research DataThe loop impedance measurement
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Locally Adaptive Cooperative Kalman Smoothing and Its Application to Identification of Nonstationary Stochastic Systems
PublicationOne of the central problems of the stochastic approximation theory is the proper adjustment of the smoothing algorithm to the unknown, and possibly time-varying, rate and mode of variation of the estimated signals/parameters. In this paper we propose a novel locally adaptive parallel estimation scheme which can be used to solve the problem of fixed-interval Kalman smoothing in the presence of model uncertainty. The proposed solution...
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Ireneusz Kreja dr hab. inż.
PeopleGraduated from the mathematical class at the Nicolaus Copernicus High School in Gdańsk (1974). Master of Sciences in Civil Engineering after studies at Gdansk University of Technology (GUT), Poland (1974-1979). Since 1979 became an employee of the GUT. In 1989 earned a Ph.D. degree in Civil Engineering (with grade "Summa cum Laude") from the GUT. In 2008 obtained a D. Sc. (Habilitation) degree in Civil Engineering (with grade...
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Robust Object Detection with Multi-input Multi-output Faster R-CNN
PublicationRecent years have seen impressive progress in visual recognition on many benchmarks, however, generalization to the out-of-distribution setting remains a significant challenge. A state-of-the-art method for robust visual recognition is model ensembling. However, recently it was shown that similarly competitive results could be achieved with a much smaller cost, by using multi-input multi-output architecture (MIMO). In this work,...
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Robust Object Detection with Multi-input Multi-output Faster R-CNN
PublicationRecent years have seen impressive progress in visual recognition on many benchmarks, however, generalization to the out-of-distribution setting remains a significant challenge. A state-of-the-art method for robust visual recognition is model ensembling. However, recently it was shown that similarly competitive results could be achieved with a much smaller cost, by using multi-input multi-output architecture (MIMO). In this work,...
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Non-Adaptive Rotor Speed Estimation of Induction Machine in an Adaptive Full-Order Observer
PublicationIn the sensorless control system of an induction machine, the rotor speed value is not measured but reconstructed by an observer structure. The rotor speed value can be reconstructed by the classical adaptive law with the integrator. The second approach, which is the main contribution of this paper, is the non-adaptive structure without an integrator. The proposed method of the rotor speed reconstruction is based on an algebraic...
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Application of Bayesian Networks in risk diagnostics arising from the degree of urban regeneration area degradation
PublicationUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Application of BN in Risk Diagnostics Arising from the Degree of Urban Regeneration Area Degradation
PublicationUrban regeneration as a complex project, generates many extremely specific threats affecting the increase of investment risk. Its unique nature causes that probability parameter, normally applied in the process of risk quantification, is extremely difficult to estimate. Due to lack of historical data urban regeneration related activities are therefore associated with uncertainty. According to the authors, a useful tool for resolving...
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Accounting for the distributions of input quantities in the procedure for the measurement uncertainty evaluation when calibrating the goniometer
PublicationThe discords concerning the measurement uncertainty evaluation in the Guide to the Expressing of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and its Supplement 1 are considered. To overcome these discords, the authors of the paper propose to use the kurtosis method and the law of the propagation of the expanded uncertainty. Using the example of the goniometer calibration, the features of accounting for the distribution laws of input quantities...
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Improved Modeling of Microwave Structures Using Performance-Driven Fully-Connected Regression Surrogate
PublicationFast replacement models (or surrogates) have been widely applied in the recent years to accelerate simulation-driven design procedures in microwave engineering. The fundamental reason is a considerable—and often prohibitive—CPU cost of massive full-wave electromagnetic (EM) analyses related to solving common tasks such as parametric optimization or uncertainty quantification. The most popular class of surrogates are data-driven...
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An Automatic Self-Tuning Control System Design for an Inverted Pendulum
PublicationA control problem of an inverted pendulum in the presence of parametric uncertainty has been investigated in this paper. In particular, synthesis and implementation of an automatic self-tuning regulator for a real inverted pendulum have been given. The main cores of the control system are a swing-up control method and a stabilisation regulator. The first one is based on the energy of an inverted pendulum, whereas the second one...
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Variable‐fidelity modeling of antenna input characteristics using domain confinement and two‐stage Gaussian process regression surrogates
PublicationThe major bottleneck of electromagnetic (EM)-driven antenna design is the high CPU cost of massive simulations required by parametric optimization, uncertainty quantification, or robust design procedures. Fast surrogate models may be employed to mitigate this issue to a certain extent. Unfortunately, the curse of dimensionality is a serious limiting factor, hindering the construction of conventional data-driven models valid over...
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Design-oriented modeling of antenna structures by means of two-level kriging with explicit dimensionality reduction
PublicationThe employment of full-wave electromagnetic (EM) analysis is a practical necessity in the design of contemporary antenna structures. This is because simpler models are generally not available or of limited accuracy. At the same time, EM-based design is computationally expensive. Consequently, the ways of accelerating tasks such as parametric optimization or uncertainty quantification have to be sought. A possible workaround that...
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Accurate Modeling of Antenna Structures by Means of Domain Confinement and Pyramidal Deep Neural Networks
PublicationThe importance of surrogate modeling techniques has been gradually increasing in the design of antenna structures over the recent years. Perhaps the most important reason is a high cost of full-wave electromagnetic (EM) analysis of antenna systems. Although imperative in ensuring evaluation reliability, it entails considerable computational expenses. These are especially pronounced when carrying out EM-driven design tasks such...
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Risk of incorrect pass-fail decisions associated with assessment uncertainty
PublicationA mathematical framework for calculation teacher's and student's risks of incorrect pass-fail decisions under uncertainty of assessment, is presented. The probabilistic model of assessment process is adapted from interdisciplinary probabilistic theory of measurement.
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Quality of Analytical Results: Classifiying Errors and Estimating Measurement Uncertainty
PublicationThe most important parameter of each analytical result is its reliability. An analytical result is not a constant value; each result has two properties, error and uncertainty. The sources of both these parameters have to be known and their values determined (estimated). All analytical results are obtained by applying an appropriate measuring procedure. The need for reliable results requires application of reliable analytical procedures,...
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Impact of probability distribution on the uncertainty of resistance measurement
PublicationThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of resistance: 100 G. The analysis of the uncertainty...
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Safety integrity level verification for safety-related functions with security aspects
PublicationThe article is devoted some important issues of the functional safety analysis, in particular the safetyintegrity level (SIL) verification of safety functions to be implemented within the distributed controland protection systems with regard to cyber security aspects. The procedure for functional safety man-agement includes hazard identification, risk analysis and assessment, specification of overall safetyrequirements and definition...
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Cryptocurrencies as a speculative asset. How much uncertainty is included in cryptocurrency price?
PublicationThe aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between uncertainty indices (Geopolitical Uncertainty Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index) and cryptocurrencies. In order to conduct research, the authors collected the data on the major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Dogecoin and USD coin) which account for 78% of the total market cap. Using panel OLS regression, this study finds that Bitcoin...
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Uncertainty of the liquid mass flow measurement using the orifice plate
PublicationThe article presents an estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. This subject is essential because of the widespread use of this type of flow meters. Not only the quantitative estimation but also the qualitative results of those measurements are important. To achieve these results the authors of the paper propose to use the theory of uncertainty. The article shows the analysis of the...
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Expedited Yield-Driven Design of High-Frequency Structures by Kriging Surrogates in Confined Domains
PublicationUncertainty quantification is an important aspect of engineering design, also pertaining to the development and performance evaluation of high-frequency structures systems. Manufacturing tolerances as well as other types of uncertainties, related to material parameters (e.g., substrate permittivity) or operating conditions (e.g., bending) may affect the characteristics of antennas or microwave devices. For example, in the case...
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Efficient uncertainty quantification using sequential sampling-based neural networks
PublicationUncertainty quantification (UQ) of an engineered system involves the identification of uncertainties, modeling of the uncertainties, and the forward propagation of the uncertainties through a system analysis model. In this work, a novel surrogate-based forward propagation algorithm for UQ is proposed. The proposed algorithm is a new and unique extension of the recent efficient global optimization using neural network (NN)-based...
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Estimating the uncertainty of the liquid mass flow using the orifice plate
PublicationThe article presents estimation of measurement uncertainty of a liquid mass flow using the orifice plate. This subject is essential because of the widespread use of this type of flow meters, which renders not only the quantitative estimation but also qualitative results of this type so those measurements are important. To achieve this goal, the authors of the paper propose to use the theory of uncertainty. The article shows the...
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Knowledge-based performance-driven modeling of antenna structures
PublicationThe importance of surrogate modeling techniques in the design of modern antenna systems has been continuously growing over the recent years. This phenomenon is a matter of practical necessity rather than simply a fashion. On the one hand, antenna design procedures rely on full-wave electromagnetic (EM) simulation tools. On the other hand, the computational costs incurred by repetitive EM analyses involved in solving common tasks...
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Uncertainty assessment of ultimate strength of corroded stiffened plates subjected to different maintenance actions
PublicationThe study deals with the uncertainty assessment of different governing factors related to the ultimate strength of the corroded stiffened plates. The load-carrying capacity is predicted with the use of the nonlinear Finite Element Method. The most influencing governing factors in the non-linear FE analysis, such as material properties and initial imperfections are modeled and analysed as stochastic variables. The ultimate strength...
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Closer Look at the Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation under Distributional Shift
PublicationWhile recent computer vision algorithms achieve impressive performance on many benchmarks, they lack robustness - presented with an image from a different distribution, (e.g. weather or lighting conditions not considered during training), they may produce an erroneous prediction. Therefore, it is desired that such a model will be able to reliably predict its confidence measure. In this work, uncertainty estimation for the task...
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Estimation of the uncertainty of the AC/AC transducer output voltage
PublicationThe paper presents a methodology for estimating uncertainty of voltage transducers processing function, on the example of CYVS411D07 voltage transducers. The analysis was conducted using the method based on the GUM Guide propagation of uncertainty law and the determination of the coverage factor based on the effective number of degrees of freedom (t-Student distribution). The paper also presents example evaluation results of measured...
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Optimizing FSO networks resilient to adverse weather conditions by means of enhanced uncertainty sets
PublicationThis work deals with dimensioning of wireless mesh networks (WMN) composed of FSO (free space optics) links. Although FSO links realize broadband transmission at low cost, their drawback is sensitivity to adverse weather conditions causing transmission degradation on multiple links. Hence, designing such FSO networks requires an optimization model to find the cheapest configuration of link capacities that will be able to carry...
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Uncertainty in emotion recognition
PublicationPurpose–The purpose of this paper is to explore uncertainty inherent in emotion recognition technologiesand the consequences resulting from that phenomenon.Design/methodology/approach–The paper is a general overview of the concept; however, it is basedon a meta-analysis of multiple experimental and observational studies performed over the past couple of years.Findings–The mainfinding of the paper might be summarized as follows:...
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Expedited Yield Optimization of Narrow- and Multi-Band Antennas Using Performance-Driven Surrogates
PublicationUncertainty quantification is an important aspect of engineering design, also pertaining to the development and performance evaluation of antenna systems. Manufacturing tolerances as well as other types of uncertainties, related to material parameters (e.g., substrate permittivity) or operating conditions (e.g., bending) may affect the antenna characteristics. In the case of narrow- or multi-band antennas, this usually leads to...
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Reliable Surrogate Modeling of Antenna Input Characteristics by Means of Domain Confinement and Principal Components
PublicationA reliable design of contemporary antenna structures necessarily involves full-wave electromagnetic (EM) analysis which is the only tool capable of accounting, for example, for element coupling or the effects of connectors. As EM simulations tend to be CPU-intensive, surrogate modeling allows for relieving the computational overhead of design tasks that require numerous analyses, for example, parametric optimization or uncertainty...
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Antenna Modeling Using Variable-Fidelity EM Simulations and Constrained Co-Kriging
PublicationUtilization of fast surrogate models has become a viable alternative to direct handling of fullwave electromagnetic (EM) simulations in EM-driven design. Their purpose is to alleviate the difficulties related to high computational cost of multiple simulations required by the common numerical procedures such as parametric optimization or uncertainty quantification. Yet, conventional data-driven (or approximation) modeling techniques...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio-and Structural Mechanics
PublicationThis monograph presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the...
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Polynomial Chaos Expansion in Bio- and Structural Mechanics
PublicationThis thesis presents a probabilistic approach to modelling the mechanics of materials and structures where the modelled performance is influenced by uncertainty in the input parameters. The work is interdisciplinary and the methods described are applied to medical and civil engineering problems. The motivation for this work was the necessity of mechanics-based approaches in the modelling and simulation of implants used in the repair...
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INFLUENCE OF WRONGLY ASSUMED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF RESISTANCE MEASUREMENT BY TECHNICAL METHOD
PublicationThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The most commonly used distribution is the rectangular distribution. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of two resistances:...
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Entropy function application within the selection process of diagnostic parameters of marine diesel and gas turbine engines
PublicationThe paper presents the method of conducting an analysis of the diagnostic informativeness among the parameters characterizing the observed gas dynamic processes carried out within working spaces of marine diesel and gas turbine engines. An entropy function, as the measure of uncertainty of the identified states' set of the engine unfitness was applied. Having evaluated the diagnostic information the most adequate parameters were...
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Experimental Study of the Influence of Noise Level on the Uncertainty Value in a Measurement System Containing an Analog-to-Digital Converter
Open Research DataFor newly developed measuring systems it is easy to estimate type B uncertainties based on the technical data of the measuring modules applied. However, it is difficult to estimate A type un-certainties due to the unknown type and level of interferences infiltrating into the measuring sys-tem. This is a particularly important problem for measurements...
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Peculiarities of measurement uncertainty evaluation at calibrating a ring gauge
PublicationExample S13 from EA-4/02 M:2013 “Calibration of a ring gauge with a nominal diameter of 90 mm” is analyzed. The report uses the kurtosis method and the law of propagation of expanded uncertainty developed by the authors to the expanded uncertainty evaluation. It is shown that the introduction of a coaxiality correction for the ring gauge and the measuring axis of the comparator leads to the need to estimate its standard measurement...
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Estimation of the uncertainty of the LEM CV 3-500 transducers processing function
PublicationThe paper presents the methodology for estimating uncertainty of a voltage transducer processing function based on the example of LEM CV 3-500 transducer. The analysis was performed using the method based on the GUM Guide propagation of uncertainty law and the Monte Carlo numerical method. The article also presents a comparative analysis of the results of a voltage measurement evaluation done using the Monte Carlo simulation method,...
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Improving the procedure of probabilistic load testing design of typical bridges based on structural response similarities
PublicationThis paper concerns load testing of typical bridge structures performed prior to operation. In-situ tests of a two-span post-tensioned bridge loaded with three vehicles of 38-ton mass each formed the input of this study. On the basis of the results of these measurements, an advanced FEM model of the structure was developed for which the sensitivity analysis was performed for chosen uncertainty sources. Three uncorrelated random...