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Search results for: PROBABILITY
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Impact of Climate Change on a Runoff Formation in Seaside Catchment Area on the Example of the Babica River Catchment
PublicationThe paper presents the impact of taking into account climate change in the perspective of 2050 on the results of hydrological calculations of characteristic flows in the hydrographically diverse seaside catchment area on the example of the Babica river catchment. A mathematical model of the Babica river catchment was made in the HEC-HMS program. The SCS method was used. The outflow from the basin was analysed for waters with...
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SFEM Analysis of Beams with Scaled Lengths including Spatially Varying and Cross-Correlated Concrete Properties
PublicationThis paper presents the results obtained for plain concrete beams under four-point bending with spatially varying material properties. Beams of increasing length but constant depth were analyzed using the stochastic finite element method. Spatial fluctuation of a uniaxial tensile strength, fracture energy and elastic modulus was defined within cross-correlated random fields. The symmetrical Gauss probability distribution function...
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Accuracy of Differential Phase Delay Estimation for GPS Spoofing Detection
PublicationGPS spoofing is an attack based on transmission of false signals to target receivers, in order to force the computation of incorrect time, position or velocity information. It is a threat which is recently considered with continuously growing awareness. There is a need for effective way of GPS spoofing detection. Many groups of methods are proposed in the literature. Spatial processing methods are considered to be robust in a wide...
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Tax Evasion, Tax Morale, and Trade Regulations: Company-Level Evidence from Poland
PublicationObjective: To investigate the determinants of the phenomenon of evading taxes among polish entrepreneurs. In particular, I examine such factors as tax administration satisfaction, tax morale, tax burden, and the influence of trade regulations. Research Design & Methods: A survey study conducted in 2017 in Poland among 454 enterprises. I used the zero-inflated negative binomial modelling technique to examine the impact of factors...
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Cargo ships heat demand - operational experiment
PublicationThe paper presents the results of an experiment conducted on two cargo ships – a 5300 TEU container with a steam heating system and a 7500 dwt general cargo ship with a thermal oil system. On both ships research has been carried out using specially designed measuring equipment. After gathering data about flow velocity and temperatures (steam/ cooling water/ thermal oil/ seawater/ outside air), calculations have been done, resulting...
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Topological model of aptitude of the measurement circuits of main subassemblies of an internal combustion engine crankshaft-piston assembly
PublicationThe paper presents a topological model allowing to determine the probability of aptitude of the diagnosing system (SDG) individual measuring circuits and also to determine to what degree they influence the assessment of the technical condition of an arbitrary main subassembly of crankshaft-piston assemblies as a diagnosed system (SDN).
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Advanced Bayesian study on inland navigational risk of remotely controlled autonomous ship
PublicationThe arise of autonomous ships has necessitated the development of new risk assessment techniques and methods. This study proposes a new framework for navigational risk assessment of remotely controlled Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). This framework establishes a set of risk influencing factors affecting safety of navigation of a remotely-controlled MASS. Next, model parameters are defined based on the risk factors, and...
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On the Hat Problem on the Cycle C7
PublicationThe topic is the hat problem in which each of n players is randomly fitted with a blue or red hat. Then everybody can try to guess simultaneously his own hat color by looking at the hat colors of the other players. The team wins if at least one player guesses his hat color correctly, and no one guesses his hat color wrong; otherwise the team loses. The aim is to maximize the probability of a win. In this version every player can...
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ISSUE OF MAKING DECISIONS WITH REGARD TO SHIP TRAFFIC SAFETY IN DIFFERENT SITUATIONS AT SEA
PublicationThe paper refers to the possibilities of making operational decisions that would enable to ensure safety to a ship in the event of application of the statistical decision theory with consideration of an expected value of consequences as a criterion for making such a decision. General description includes conditions for carrying out transportation tasks by ships and it has been shown that following this description it is possible...
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Quadratic stochastic operators on Banach lattices
PublicationWe study the convergence of iterates of quadratic stochastic operators that are mean monotonic. They are defined on the convex set of probability measures concentrated on a weakly compact order interval S = [0, f] of a fixed Banach lattice F. We study their regularity and identify the limits of trajectories either as the “infimum” or “supremum” of the support of initial distributions.
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Usage of Memi-Markov Process in Operation Evaluation of Diesel Engine
PublicationIn paper, the proposition of quantitative evaluation of operation using semi-Markov processes theories has been presented. Basic assumptions, essential for creating mathematical model on example of diesel engine were shown. Special attention was given to practical aspects of using established mathematical model. Example of characteristic of analysed process - temporary distribution of probability was assigned.
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Application of Game Theory to Conflict Management in a Construction Contract
PublicationInterest has recently grown in the application of game theory (GT) to solve a number of diverse problems in the field of construction. The use of GT by a general contractor (GC) of construction works to indicate the best strategy leading to winning court proceedings in a situation of conflict with investor (IN), has not been investigated until now. Thus the aim of this paper is to indicate the optimal strategy from the GC viewpoint...
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Novel Investigation of Higher Order Spectral Technologies for Fault Diagnosis of Motor-Based Rotating Machinery
PublicationIn the last decade, research centered around the fault diagnosis of rotating machinery using non-contact techniques has been significantly on the rise. For the first time worldwide, innovative techniques for the diagnosis of rotating machinery, based on electrical motors, including generic, nonlinear, higher-order cross-correlations of spectral moduli of the third and fourth order (CCSM3 and CCSM4, respectively), have been comprehensively...
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Four-state stochastic model of changes in the reliability states of a motor vehicle
PublicationThe properties of semi-Markov processes have been generally characterized and the applicability of the theory of such processes to the determining of the reliability of motor cars and other road vehicles has been explained. A formal description of the process of changes in the motor vehicle technical states considered as reliability states and a model of this process in the form of a one-dimensional stochastic process have been...
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Interference aware bluetooth scatternet (re)configuration algorithm IBLUERA
PublicationThis paper presents a new algorithm IBLUEREA, which enables reconfiguration of Bluetooth scatternet to reduce interference. IBLUEREA makes use of the complex model comparing ISM environment efficiency. The mechanism envisages the use of the assessment of the probability of successful (unsuccessful) frame transmission in order to take a decision concerning co-existence of technologies which make use of the same ISM band (here Bluetooth...
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IEEE 802.15.4a Impulse Radio Spectrum Shaping by Changes in Pulse Sequence
PublicationThis paper presents one of possible techniques of IEEE 802.15.4a ultra-wideband signal spectrum control, based on changes in sequences of transmitted pulses with very short duration time. This technique can reduce probability of mutual interferences between new ultra-wideband and existing narrowband devices, which may be helpful in further studies on allowing UWB transmission in wider range of spectrum in theEuropean Union.
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Wyrażanie niepewności za pomocą przedziałów
PublicationZ perspektywy dwóch różnych interpretacji prawdopodobieństwa - klasycznej (częstościowej) i subiektywnej (bayesowskiej) oraz propozycji nowego przewodnika ustalającego zasady obliczania i wyrażania niepewności pomiaru (GUM), porównano sposoby komunikowania niepewności za pomocą przedziałów: ufności, bayesowskiego, objęcia, rozszerzenia.
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Numerical modeling of the combustion in a lab-scale pulverized-coal fired combustion chamber
PublicationThis work presents results of numerical modeling of the combustion process inside a lab-scale drop-tube chamber, designed to investigate the slagging properties of the flue ashes, created through the solid fuel firing. Interaction between turbulence and chemistry is accounted by use of probability density function (PDF). FLUENT inputs for non-premixed combustion chemistry modeling are defined. A discrete second phase of the coal...
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Numerical modeling of the combustion in a lab-scale pulverized-coal fired combustion chamber
PublicationThis work presents results of numerical modeling of the combustion process inside a lab-scale drop-tube chamber, designed to investigate the slagging properties of the flue ashes, created through the solid fuel firing. Interaction between turbulence and chemistry is accounted by use of probability density function (PDF). FLUENT inputs for non-premixed combustion chemistry modeling are defined. A discrete second phase of the coal...
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Dobór głównych parametrów instalacji grzewczych spalinowych siłowni okrętowych z wykorzystaniem metod i modeli probabilistycznych
PublicationPraca doktorska przedstawia nowatorską metodę projektowania okrętowych instalacji grzewczych. Metoda ta powstała dzięki analizie statystycznej danych zebranych z kilkunastu statków dotyczących między innymi wytwarzania pary w kotłach utylizacyjnych i zapotrzebowania na ciepło przez odbiorniki pary. Zaproponowany w pracy proces projektowy wykorzystuje równania korelacji wynikające z analizy statystycznej. Wytwarzanie ciepła oraz...
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Development of fragility curves in adjacent steel moment-resisting frames considering pounding effects through improved wavelet-based refined damage-sensitive feature
PublicationFragility curves present useful information related to earthquake-induced probability assessment of steel moment-resisting frames (MRFs) and determine the probability of the damage exceedance at different floor levels of MRFs. The review of the literature shows that most of the previous studies dealing with the fragility curves were based on conventional measures, such as spectral acceleration at the first mode period, peak...
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The Impact of Spatiotemporal Changes in Land Development (1984–2019) on the Increase in the Runoff Coefficient in Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq
PublicationNowadays, geospatial techniques are a popular approach for estimating urban flash floods by considering spatiotemporal changes in urban development. In this study, we investigated the impact of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes on the hydrological response of the Erbil basin in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). In the studied area, the LULC changes were calculated for 1984, 1994, 2004, 2014 and 2019 using the Digital Elevation...
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Donor-substituted SrTi1+xO3−δ anodes for SOFC
PublicationNonstoichiometric Nb-substituted SrTiO3 compounds were investigated in order to discuss the influence of nonstoichiometry at the sample properties in the light of recent results reported in the literature. Structural and electrical properties of samples were characterized. Investigated compounds were also applied as anodes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells and their reactivity with YSZ electrolyte was examined. The defect chemistry explaining...
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No-local-broadcasting theorem for multipartite quantum correlations
PublicationWe prove that the correlations present in a multipartite quantum state have an operational quantum character even if the state is unentangled, as long as it does not simply encode a multipartite classical probability distribution. Said quantumness is revealed by the new task of local broadcasting, i.e., of locally sharing preestablished correlations, which is feasible if and only if correlations are stricly classical. Our operational...
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Harmony Search to Self-Configuration of Fault-Tolerant Grids for Big Data
PublicationIn this paper, harmony search algorithms have been proposed to self-configuration of fault-tolerant grids for big data processing. Some tasks related to big data processing have been considered. Moreover, two criteria have been applied to evaluate quality of grids. The first criterion is a probability that all tasks meet their deadlines and the second one is grid reliability. Furthermore, some intelligent agents based on harmony...
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Effect of geometric imperfections on aluminium silo capacities
PublicationAn aluminum silo with initial imperfections is analysed. Two types of imperfections are considered. The first one takes the form of local indentations in the shell; their size and range are adopted on the basis of the standard guidelines. The second type is a global imperfection described through the use of its eigenforms and by means of two-dimensional random fields. The calculations are limited to two cases of loading: negative...
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Selected problems of sensitivity and reliability of a jack-up platform
PublicationThe paper deals with sensitivity and reliability applications to numerical studies of an off-shore platform model. Structural parameters and sea conditions are referred to the Baltic jack-up drilling platform. The study aims at the influence of particular basic variables on static and dynamic response as well as the probability of failure due to water waves and wind loads. The paper presents the sensitivity approach to a generalized...
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A random field-based simulational identification of possible levels of material imperfections of adhesive-bonded joints
PublicationRecently, structural adhesives have become significant in the shaping of structural elements, especially in thin-walled structures, where they replace or supplement traditional connection methods. However, adhesive-bonded joints are highly susceptible to internal structural imperfections due to their application technique and the nature of the adhesive. These material inconsistencies impact the strength parameters and the mechanical...
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Urban flash flood hazard identification and assessment applying geospatial techniques and hydrodynamic modeling; Erbil city case study, Kurdistan Region of Iraq
PublicationThis dissertation aims to investigate the factors behind flash flooding in Erbil's central district, located in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and develop a methodology for assessing flood hazards in the city, despite limited data accessibility. In this thesis, each factor was investigated, including analyzing extreme precipitation events in the last two decades, including their spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, intensity,...
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Laxer Clinical Criteria for Gaming Disorder May Hinder Future Efforts to Devise an Efficient Diagnostic Approach: A Tree-Based Model Study
PublicationInternet Gaming Disorder (IGD) has been recognized in May 2013 and can be evaluated using the criteria developed by American Psychiatric Association (APA). The present study investigated the role each IGD criteria plays in diagnosing disordered gaming. A total of 3,377 participants (mean age 20 years, SD = 4.3 years) participated in the study. The data collected was scrutinized to detect patterns...
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On a Recurrence Arising in Graph Compression
PublicationIn a recently proposed graphical compression algorithm by Choi and Szpankowski (2012), the following tree arose in the course of the analysis. The root contains n balls that are consequently distributed between two subtrees according to a simple rule: In each step, all balls independently move down to the left subtree (say with probability p) or the right subtree (with probability 1p). A new node is created as long as...
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An updated method identifying collision-prone locations for ships. A case study for oil tankers navigating in the Gulf of Finland
PublicationTo ensure the risk level associated with continuously increasing maritime traffic through particularly sensitive sea areas remains at acceptable level, a periodic risk assessment needs to be carried out by the relevant authorities. As a part of such assessment, allowing for proactive countermeasures to mitigate risk, the frequency of accidents is estimated along with the assessment of geographical locations where the accidents...
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Analiza praktyk związanych z zarządzaniem projektami informatycznymi i utrzymaniem usług IT i ich wpływu na realne sukcesy przedsięwzięć. Identyfikacja luk i rekomendacje dotyczące usprawnień
PublicationCelem niniejszego artykułu jest dokonanie analizy praktyk związanych z zarządzaniem projektami informatycznymi, utrzymaniem usług IT i ich wpływu na realne sukcesy przedsięwzięć, a następnie identyfikacja luk występujących pomiędzy tymi obszarami oraz rekomendacje usprawnień eliminujących te luki.
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Performance evaluation of GPS anti-spoofing system based on antenna array processing
PublicationThis article concerns the problem of detection and mitigation of spoofing attacks in Global Navigation Satellite Systems. First, background information about spoofing and its possible countermeasures is provided. Next, concept of a novel GPS anti-spoofing system based on antenna array processing is presented and implementation of prototype of this system is described. The third section outlines the performance evaluation of proposed...
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Sharp transitions in low-number quantum dots Bayesian magnetometry
PublicationWe consider Bayesian estimate of static magnetic field, characterized by a prior Gaussian probability distribution, in systems of a few electron quantum dot spins interacting with infinite temperature spin environment via hyperfine interaction. Sudden transitions among optimal states and measurements are observed. Usefulness of measuring occupation levels is shown for all times of the evolution, together with the role of entanglement...
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ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVENESS AND COMPUTATIONAL COMPLEXITY OF TREND REMOVAL METHODS
PublicationThe paper presents a method of processing measurement data due to remove slowly varying component of the trend occurring in the recorded waveforms. Comparison of computational complexity and trend removal efficiency between some commonly used methods is presented. The impact of these procedures on probability distribution and power spectral density is shown. Effectiveness and computational complexity of these methods depend essentially...
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NO-BROADCASTING OF NON-SIGNALLING BOXES VIA OPERATIONS WHICH TRANSFORM LOCAL BOXES INTO LOCAL ONES
PublicationWe deal with families of probability distributions satisfying non-signalling condition, called non-signalling boxes and consider a class of operations that transform local boxes into local ones (the one that admit LHV model). We prove that any operation from this class cannot broadcast a bipartite non-local box with 2 binary inputs and outputs. We consider a function called anti-Robustness which can not decrease under these operations....
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The Efficiency of Polish Stock Market: Ordinal Patterns Approach
PublicationZunino et al. analyzed the problem of discrimination of developed and emergent markets by the use of ordinal patterns methods: number of forbidden patterns and ordinal pattern probability distribution as a basis for entropy and statistical measure of complexity. In this paper we apply the same methodology for the analysis of Polish stock market (index WIG). The results indicate that Polish market belongs neither to developed, nor...
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Informal employment in Poland: an empirical spatial analysis
PublicationThe main goal of our article is to bridge the gap in the regional analysis of informal employment in Poland and in particular to indicate the propensity for informal work in the working-age population, to test if informal activities are typical for marginalized people (less educated, unemployed, older) and to identify the regional and spatial heterogeneity in the propensity. We use data from the ‘Human Capital Balance 2010–2014’...
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Simulator for Performance Evaluation of ASON/GMPLS Network
PublicationThe hierarchical control plane network architecture of Automatically Switched Optical Network with utilization of Generalized Multi-Protocol Label Switching protocols is compliant to next generation networks requirements and can supply connections with required quality of service, even with incomplete domain information. Considering connection control, connection management and network management, the controllers of this architecture...
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Free randomness amplification using bipartite chain correlations
PublicationA direct analysis of the task of randomness amplification from Santha-Vazirani sources using the violation of the chained Bell inequality is performed in terms of the convex combination of no-signaling boxes required to simulate quantum violation of the inequality. This analysis is used to find the exact threshold value of the initial randomness parameter from which perfect randomness can be extracted in the asymptotic limit of...
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Invariant Measures for Uncountable Random Interval Homeomorphisms
PublicationA necessary and sufficient condition for the iterated function system { f (·, ω) | ω ∈ } with probability P to have exactly one invariant measure μ∗ with μ∗((0, 1)) = 1 is given. The main novelty lies in the fact that we only require the transformations f (·, ω) to be increasing homeomorphims, without any smoothness condition, nei- ther we impose conditions on the cardinality of . In particular, positive Lyapunov exponents conditions...
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Application possibilities of LBN for civil engineering issues
PublicationBayesian Networks (BN) are efficient to represent knowledge and for the reasoning in uncertainty. However the classic BN requires manual definition of the network structure by an expert, who also defines the values entered into the conditional probability tables. In practice, it can be time-consuming, hence the article proposes the use of Learning Bayesian Networks (LBN). The aim of the study is not only to present LBN, which can...
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Wrażliwość probabilistyczna stanów granicznych konstrukcji - metoda Monte Carlo
PublicationPraca ukazuje zastosowanie metody symulacyjnej Monte Carlo w analizie losowej konstrukcji inżynierskich. Systematyka metod losowych obejmuje ich trzy poziomy, z zaznaczeniem poziomu trzeciego, o dowolnych typach zmiennych losowych – zmiennych podstawowych problemu. Ukazano przykład modelowana losowego obciążenia wiatrem na podstawie 10-letnich pomiarów prędkości wiatru, wykazując zgodność zbioru danych z rozkładem ekstremów Gumbela....
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Characterizing the Performance of <span class="sc">xor</span> Games and the Shannon Capacity of Graphs
PublicationIn this Letter we give a set of necessary and sufficient conditions such that quantum players of a two-party xor game cannot perform any better than classical players. With any such game, we associate a graph and examine its zero-error communication capacity. This allows us to specify a broad new class of graphs for which the Shannon capacity can be calculated. The conditions also enable the parametrization of new families of games...
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Probabilistic sensitivity of the limit states of structures using Monte Carlom simulation
PublicationThe paper presents the concept of probabilistic sensitivity of structural limit states with respect to given design variables. A general idea is presented, illustrated by a simple case solved in an analytical way. More general approach is presented for the engineering structures, in this case a dedicated Monte Carlo simulation procedure is involved as part of the methodology. Illustration of the engineering case is done, by means...
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Directed percolation effects emerging from superadditivity of quantum networks
PublicationEntanglement-induced nonadditivity of classical communication capacity in networks consisting of quantum channels is considered. Communication lattices consisting of butterfly-type entanglement-breaking channels augmented, with some probability, by identity channels are analyzed. The capacity superadditivity in the network is manifested in directed correlated bond percolation which we consider in two flavors: simply directed and...
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Probabilistic seismic assessment of RC box-girder highway bridges with unequal-height piers subjected to earthquake-induced pounding
PublicationThis paper uses the probabilistic seismic assessment to study the effects of pounding and irregularity on the seismic behavior of typical concrete box-girder bridges with four levels of altitudinal irregularity. To extend the results for all bridges in the same class, uncertainty related to the earthquake, structural geometries, and materials are considered. Pounding is likely to take place in two cases: the first one concerns...
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Merton-type default risk and financial performance: the dynamic panel moderation of firm size
PublicationPurpose – The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation of firm size. Design/methodology/approach – This study utilizes a total of 1,500 firm-year observations from 2013 to 2018 using dynamic panel data approach of generalized method of moments to test the relationship between default risk and financial...
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Application of dynamic time warping and cepstrograms to text-dependent speaker verification
PublicationThis work provides a description of an automatic speaker verification (ASV) system. In particular, it documents the evolution of all individual stages of the proposed ASV system design from the phase of preprocessing to an operational decision making system. The aim of this research was to achieve the system of the best safety and ease of use in view of users. The objective estimation of this target has been accomplished by assessing...