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Search results for: rainfall distribution and probability
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Impact of probability distribution on the uncertainty of resistance measurement
PublicationThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of resistance: 100 G. The analysis of the uncertainty...
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INFLUENCE OF WRONGLY ASSUMED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF RESISTANCE MEASUREMENT BY TECHNICAL METHOD
PublicationThe paper presents studies on the influence of probability distributions on the expanded uncertainty of the resistance measurement. Choosing the correct probability distribution is very important to estimate of measurement uncertainty. The most commonly used distribution is the rectangular distribution. The paper presents the results of analysis of the resistance measurement uncertainty using the technical method of two resistances:...
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Probability distribution of flicker noise in AuNPdecorated graphene–Si Schottky barrier diode
PublicationWe present results of the probability distribution analysis of flicker noise generated in Au nanoparticle (AuNP) decorated graphene–Si Schottky barrier diodes with and without yellow light illumination (592 nm), close to the localized surface plasmon resonance in the AuNPs (586 nm). The AuNPs occupy imperfections in the single-layer graphene and reduce the flicker noise intensity generated in the graphene layer. The estimated probability...
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Advanced sensitivity analysis of the impact of the temporal distribution and intensity of rainfall on hydrograph parameters in urban catchments
PublicationKnowledge of the variability of the hydrograph of outflow from urban catchments is highly important for measurements and evaluation of the operation of sewer networks. Currently, hydrodynamic models are most frequently used for hydrograph modeling. Since a large number of their parameters have to be identified, there may be problems at the calibration stage. Hence, sensitivity analysis is used to limit the number of parameters....
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Badanie rozkładów parametrów sygnału mowy w zastosowaniach do prognozowania prawdopodobieństwa popełnienia błędów w systemach identyfikacji mówców = Examining distribution of speech signal parameters for the prognosis of error probability in speaker verification systems
PublicationPrzedmiotem pracy jest system identyfikacji mówców w sposób zależny od tekstu ("text dependent''). Dokonano analizy wielu różnych wypowiedzi kilkudziesięciu mówców. Zastosowana metoda parametryzacji to metoda oparta na wynikach analizy cepstralnej sygnału mowy. Zdefiniowane zostały nowe parametry skojarzone z elementarnymi zdarzeniami w procesie weryfikacji mówców. Na tej podstawie dokonano estymacji funkcji gęstości prawdopodobieństwa...
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EXTREME RAINFALLS AS A CAUSE OF URBAN FLASH FLOODS; A CASE STUDY OF THE ERBIL-KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ
PublicationAim of the study The current paper aims to give a detailed evaluation and analysis of some extreme rainfall events that happened in the last decade in terms of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution, intensity rate, and exceedance probability. Moreover, it examines the effects of each analysed aspect on the resulting flash floods in the studied area. Material and methods In their glossary of meteorology, American Meteorology...
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The impact of hydrological research, municipal authorities, and residents on rainwater management in Gdańsk (Poland) in the process of adapting the city to climate change
PublicationAim of the study The city of Gdańsk faces changing climatic conditions that result in a higher frequency of extreme weather events. In response to the increasingly frequent appearance of flash floods, scientific research was carried out on changes in the probability of the occurrence of maximum daily precipitation in Gdańsk. The purpose of this paper is to show the role of hydrological research (science), decisions of local authorities...
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Urban flash flood hazard identification and assessment applying geospatial techniques and hydrodynamic modeling; Erbil city case study, Kurdistan Region of Iraq
PublicationThis dissertation aims to investigate the factors behind flash flooding in Erbil's central district, located in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and develop a methodology for assessing flood hazards in the city, despite limited data accessibility. In this thesis, each factor was investigated, including analyzing extreme precipitation events in the last two decades, including their spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, intensity,...
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Evaluating the Catastrophic Rainfall of 14 July 2016 in the Catchment Basin of the Urbanized Strzyza Stream in Gdańsk, Poland
PublicationWe analyzed the causes, the course, and consequences of the extreme precipitation events that occurred 14 July 2016 in the watershed of Strzyza Creek in Gdańsk, Poland. Automated rain gauges located in Strzyża catchment registered a total precipitation lasting about 16 hours – from 129 to 160 mm of rain depth. More in-depth analysis based on rain data collected by Gdańsk University of Technology (GUT) rain station was done. The...
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PROBABLE RAINFALL IN GDAŃSK IN VIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE
PublicationOne of the manifestations of climate changes is the occurrence of a greater number of precipitation events, characterized by greater rain intensity that affects the economic stability of cities. Gdańsk is an example of a city in which such events have occurred since the beginning of the twenty-first century. Due to the altitude differences in the area of Gdańsk city (between –2 m and 180 m a.s.l.), the occurrence of extreme atmospheric...
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Impact of Climate Change on a Runoff Formation in Seaside Catchment Area on the Example of the Babica River Catchment
PublicationThe paper presents the impact of taking into account climate change in the perspective of 2050 on the results of hydrological calculations of characteristic flows in the hydrographically diverse seaside catchment area on the example of the Babica river catchment. A mathematical model of the Babica river catchment was made in the HEC-HMS program. The SCS method was used. The outflow from the basin was analysed for waters with...
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Hazards of a flooding event in the city of Gdansk and possible forms of preventing the phenomenon – case study
PublicationThe main objective is to examine the urban flood hazard in the city of Gdansk and to determine the possibilities of preventing this phenomenon. Hydrological and hydraulic modeling was used for the case study analysis of urban flood in Strzyża basin, applying the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS systems. The result of modeling with the assumption of torrential rainfall with a duration of t = 1 h (from 35 to 58 mm) is the probability of pluvial...
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Analiza wezbrania rzeki Kaczej w Gdyni po opadzie z 14 lipca 2016 roku
PublicationW połowie lipca 2016 r. w Trójmieście, zanotowano opad atmosferyczny o sumie przekraczającej 150 mm. Opadom deszczu od godzin popołudniowych dnia 14 lipca do godzin rannych 15 lipca towarzyszył okresami bardzo silny i gwałtowny wiatr początkowo z kierunku północno-wschodniego następnie z kierunku północno-zachodniego. Opisana sytuacja hydro-meteorologiczna spowodowała znaczne wezbrania w rzekach i potokach rejonu Zatoki Gdańskiej,...
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Wrażliwość probabilistyczna stanów granicznych konstrukcji - metoda Monte Carlo
PublicationPraca ukazuje zastosowanie metody symulacyjnej Monte Carlo w analizie losowej konstrukcji inżynierskich. Systematyka metod losowych obejmuje ich trzy poziomy, z zaznaczeniem poziomu trzeciego, o dowolnych typach zmiennych losowych – zmiennych podstawowych problemu. Ukazano przykład modelowana losowego obciążenia wiatrem na podstawie 10-letnich pomiarów prędkości wiatru, wykazując zgodność zbioru danych z rozkładem ekstremów Gumbela....
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Dobór głównych parametrów instalacji grzewczych spalinowych siłowni okrętowych z wykorzystaniem metod i modeli probabilistycznych
PublicationPraca doktorska przedstawia nowatorską metodę projektowania okrętowych instalacji grzewczych. Metoda ta powstała dzięki analizie statystycznej danych zebranych z kilkunastu statków dotyczących między innymi wytwarzania pary w kotłach utylizacyjnych i zapotrzebowania na ciepło przez odbiorniki pary. Zaproponowany w pracy proces projektowy wykorzystuje równania korelacji wynikające z analizy statystycznej. Wytwarzanie ciepła oraz...
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An advanced tool integrating failure and sensitivity analysis into novel modeling of the stormwater flood volume
PublicationAn innovative tool for modeling the specific flood volume was presented that can be applied to assess the need for stormwater network modernization as well as for advanced flood risk assessment. Field measurements for a catchment area in Kielce, Poland, were used to apply the model and demonstrate its usefulness. This model extends the capability of recently developed statistical and machine learning hydrodynamic models developed...
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High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events
PublicationDischarge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River....
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Pomiar ryzyka bankowego - propozycja typologii
PublicationW artykule zaproponowano typologię pomiaru ryzyk bankowych. Wyodrębnione kryteria podziału podejść do pomiaru ryzyka to: (1) pomiar bezpośredni/pośredni, (2) pomiar ex post/ex ante, (3) kryterium oparte o składnik ryzyka – częstotliwość, dotkliwość, ekspozycja, całościowa strata, (4) kryterium oparte o parametr rozkładu: pomiar wartości oczekiwanej/przeciętnej, pomiar rozproszenia, pomiar wartości skrajnych. Wśród motywów pomiaru...
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Application of Multinomial Logistic Regression to Model the Impact of Rainfall Genesis on the Performance of Storm Overflows: Case Study
PublicationIn this study, a mathematical model was proposed to analyze the performance of storm overfows. The model included the infuence of rainfall genesis on the duration of storm overfow, its volume, and the maximum instantaneous fow. The multinomial logistic regression model, which has not been used so far to model objects located in a stormwater system, was proposed to simulate the duration of storm overfow. The Iman–Conover method,...
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On the Handling of Outliers in the GNSS Time Series by Means of the Noise and Probability Analysis
PublicationThe data pre-analysis plays a significant role in the noise determination. The most important issue is to find an optimum criterion for outliers removal, since their existence can affect any further analysis. The noises in the GNSS time series are characterized by spectral index and amplitudes that can be determined with a few different methods. In this research, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was used. The noise amplitudes...
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Comparative Analysis of Developed Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves for Erbil with Other Iraqi Urban Areas
PublicationRainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) relationships are widely used in water infrastructure design and construction. IDF curves represent the relationship between rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency, and are obtained by analyzing observed data. These relationships are critical for the safe design of flood protection structures, storm sewers, culverts, bridges, etc. In this study, the IDF curves and empirical IDF formulas...
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Modelling Wetland Growing Season Rainfall Interception Losses Based on Maximum Canopy Storage Measurements
PublicationThis study estimates rainfall interception losses from natural wetland ecosystems based on maximum canopy storage measurements. Rainfall interception losses play an important role in water balance, which is crucial in wetlands, and has not yet been thoroughly studied in relation to this type of ecosystem. Maximum canopy storage was measured using the weight method. Based on these measurements, daily values of interception losses...
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Jakość usług w optycznej sieci wielodomenowej z hierarchiczną strukturą płaszczyzn sterowania
PublicationW rozprawie przedstawiono przegląd architektur sieci z gwarancją jakości klas usług oraz stan prac w zakresie realizacji optycznych sieci ASON, GMPLS oraz ASON/GMPLS. Opisano wymagania i zaawansowanie prac w realizacji sieci ASON/GMPLS z hierarchiczną strukturą płaszczyzn sterowania oraz problemy związane z zagadnieniem jakości klas usług w tej sieci. Zaprezentowano założenia, koncepcję oraz realizację modelu symulacyjnego optycznej...
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Short-Term Observations of Rainfall Chemistry Composition in Bellsund (SW Spitsbergen, Svalbard)
PublicationGlobal warming results in increasingly widespread wildfires, mostly in Siberia, but also in North America and Europe, which are responsible for the uncontrollable emission of pollutants, also to the High Arctic region. This study examines 11 samples of rainfall collected in August in a coastal area of southern Bellsund (Svalbard, Norway). It covers detailed analysis of major ions (i.e., Cl−, NO3−, and SO42−) and elements (i.e.,...
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Evaluation of thermal cracking probability for asphalt concretes with high percentage of RAP
PublicationThe paper presents determination of the probability of thermal cracking of asphalt mixtures with different reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) content on the basis of laboratory tests and analytical evaluation using thermal stress development method. Probability was evaluated taking into consideration: the type and gradation of the mixture and the quality and content of RAP. Thermal stresses were determined using two models: elastic and...
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Probability modelling of vessel collisions
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STORMWATER AS AN ALTERNATIVE WATER SOURCE: QUALITY CHANGES WITH RAINFALL DURATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR TREATMENT APPROACHES
PublicationThe pressure on the world’s water resources is rapidly increasing due to population growth and climatic changes. Valorisation of stormwater as a water resource for non-potable reuse can reduce high-quality water demands and save it for potable uses. In this context, not only roof runoff but also drained stormwater outflow, representing considerably higher pollution levels, should be considered as a potential resource. We analysed...
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Development of cluster analysis methodology for identification of model rainfall hyetographs and its application at an urban precipitation field scale
PublicationDespite growing access to precipitation time series records at a high temporal scale, in hydrology, and particularly urban hydrology, engineers still design and model drainage systems using scenarios of rainfall temporal distributions predefined by means of model hyetographs. This creates the need for the availability of credible statistical methods for the development and verification of already locally applied model hyetographs....
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Family business experience and the probability of starting a venture: gender differences in Poland
PublicationThe aim of this study is to analyse whether the experience of working in a family member’s business is related differently to the assessed probabilities of men and women starting their own new venture in the future. The research is conducted on a sample of 334 Polish undergraduate students. Poland is an efficiency-driven European economy with a substantial gender gap in entrepreneurship. The results obtained indicate that the relationship...
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Analysis of Rainfall Data of Gdansk Meteorological Station
PublicationW pracy przedstawiono wyniki analizy danych opadowych z okresu 51 lat (1951-2008) ze stacji meteorologicznej w Gdańsku. Analizę przeprowadzono zarówno dla sum rocznych opadów jak i sezonowych i miesięcznych. Dokonano również analizy maksymalnych sum dobowych opadów dla każdego miesiąca, badając ich zmienność w wieloleciu.
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A new quantum-inspired approach to reduce the blocking probability of demands in resource-constrained path computation scenarios
PublicationThis article presents a new approach related with end-to-end routing, which, owing to quantum-inspired mecha-nisms of prediction of availability of network resources, results in improved blocking probability of incoming requests to establish transmission paths. The proposed scheme has been analyzed for three network topologies and several scenarios of network load. Obtained results show a significant (even twofold) reduction of...
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Incorporating installation effects into the probability analysis of controlled modulus columns
PublicationThis technical report presents the probabilistic analysis which integrates the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with random field theory to model the load–displacement behavior of Controlled Modulus Columns (CMCs) in overconsolidated Poznań clay. Presented study focuses on the practical aspects of statistical analysis of geotechnical data, numerical model development, and results evaluation. Variability and spatial distribution of...
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Empirical Probability Distributions with Unknown Number of Components
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Web Based Application for Probability Job Scheduling
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Floodable length curves based on probability of survival.
PublicationPrzedstawiono możliwość obliczanie krzywych grodziowych dla statku o mieszanym podziale grodziowym dla zadanej wartości mnożnika s, traktowanego jako parametr. Krzywe takie, dotąd nie stosowane, mogą znacznie ułatwić optymalizowanie podziału grodziowego względem wskaźnika niezatapialności.
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Optimization-based stacked machine-learning method for seismic probability and risk assessment of reinforced concrete shear walls
PublicationEfficient seismic risk assessment aids decision-makers in formulating citywide risk mitigation plans, providing insights into building performance and retrofitting costs. The complexity of modeling, analysis, and post-processing of the results makes it hard to fast-track the seismic probabilities, and there is a need to optimize the computational time. This research addresses seismic probability and risk assessment of reinforced...
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A framework to analyse the probability of accidental hull girder failure considering advanced corrosion degradation for risk-based ship design
PublicationShip’s hull girder failure could result from maritime accident that can cause human life loss, environmental disaster, and major economic impacts. In risk-based ship design paradigm, accounting for rare phenomena (e.g. ship-ship collision or grounding) is important to provide safe and durable structure. In-service corrosion-induced hull degradation should be considered at the design stage, as it can significantly affect structural...
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Probability of flooding a compartment (the pi factor) - a critique and a proposal
PublicationArtykuł podaje krytyczny przegląd stanu wiedzy dot. obliczania prawdopodobirństwa zatopienia przedziału (mnożnika pi), ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem projektu badawczego ''Harder'' oraz podaje poprawne rozwiązanie dotyczące tego mnożnika. Kończy się propozycją przepisu do zamieszczenia w konwencji SOLAS.
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Probability analysis of life Raft capsizing on rough sea
PublicationArtykuł przedstawia metodę obliczania prawdopodobieństwa przewrócenia się tratwy ratunkowej za pomocą symulacji ruchu na fali nieregularnej. Przedstawiono obliczenia ruchów tratwy na falowaniu nieregularnym, którego symulacje wykonano dla znanej funkcji gęstości widmowej falowania dla Bałtyku oraz niedeterministycznego (stochastycznego) rozkładu amplitudy fali.
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Electric field dependence of the probability of charge carriers recombination
PublicationBadano wpływ zewnętrznego pola elektrycznego na prawdopodobieństwo rekombinacji nośników ładunku w molekularnych ciałach stałych. Przybliżenie analityczne wykazuje, że prawdopodobieństwo to maleje ze wzrostem pola elektrycznego. Otrzymane wyniki mogą być pomocne w wyjaśnieniu spadku wydajności elektroluminescencji w jednowarstwowych diodach elektroluminescencyjnych w zakresie wysokich pól elektrycznych.
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Probabilistic approach of the Upper and Middle Odra basin daily rainfall modeling
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Irrigation Effects of Red Beet as Affected by Rainfall in Different Regions of Poland
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Towards rainfall interception capacity estimation using ALS LiDAR data
PublicationIn this study we develop a spatial model for interception capacity of vegetation based on LiDAR data. The study is conducted in the natural wetland river valley dominated meadows, reeds and small bushes. The multiple regression model was chosen to relate the field measurements of interception capacity and LiDAR statistics at 2m grid. The optimal model was chosen by stepwise selection and further manual variables selection resulting...
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The application of impedance measurements for the determination of the probability of the course of corrosion processes
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Irregular variations in GPS time series by probability and noise analysis
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Reducing the Probability of Failure in Manufacturing Equipment by Quantitative FTA Analysis
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Progress towards a unified approach to entanglement distribution
PublicationEntanglement distribution is key to the success of secure communication schemes based on quantum mechanics, and there is a strong need for an ultimate architecture able to overcome the limitations of recent proposals such as those based on entanglement percolation or quantum repeaters. In this work we provide a broad theoretical background for the development of such technologies. In particular, we investigate the question of whether...
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Residence time distribution in rapid multiphase reactors
PublicationResidence time distribution (RTD) provides information about average hydraulic residence time and the distribution of material in the reactor. A method for determining RTD for reactors with very short hydraulic residence times is deconvolution based on extraction of real RTD by the analysis of a non-ideal input signal. The mean residence time and dispersion were determined for the spinning fluids reactor (SFR). For the first time...
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Distribution of the displacement sequence of an orientation preserving circle homeomorphism
PublicationIn some applications not only the knowledge of the behaviour of trajectories of a map is important, but also their displacements. We describe in detail the distribution of elements of the displacement sequence along a trajectory of an orientation preserving circle homeomorphism ϕ with irrational rotation number ϱ(ϕ). The values of displacement are dense in a set which depends on the map γ (semi-)conjugating ϕ with the rotation...
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Probability of limit state of bar structures. A modified Monte Carlo procedure
PublicationPraca poświecona jest zagadnieniom niezawodności i probabilistycznej analizie stanów granicznych układów prętowych. Główną ideę pracy stanowi rozkład prawdopodobieństwa stanu granicznego nośności ustroju, zdefiniowany na podstawie specjalnej procedury symulacyjnej Monte Carlo. W procedurze tej istotne jest wyznaczanie mnożników obciążenia granicznego w każdym kroku symulacyjnym. Charakterystykami rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa stanu...