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Search results for: bayes methods , decision support systems , engineering management , risk analysis
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Selected problems of decision making modelling in power engineering
PublicationThe paper presents the selected problems of decision making modelling in power engineering specially investment risk evaluation methods. The proposed model can be used in the range programming the development and investing process in power engineering. Decision making problems in power engineering and the evaluation of investment effectiveness in particular are closely related to modelling which relatively accurately reflects...
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Risk Diagnosis and Management with BBN for Civil Engineering Projects during Construction and Operation
PublicationThe authors demonstrate how expert knowledge about the construction and operation phases combined with monitoring data can be utilized for the diagnosis and management of risks typical to large civil engineering projects. The methodology chosen for estimating the probabilities of risk elements is known as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). Using a BBN model one can keep on updating the risk event probabilities as the new evidence...
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Expert systems in assessing the construction process safety taking account of the risk of disturbances
PublicationThe objective of the paper is to present the issue of safety manage-ment during the construction process. Threats in the form of disturb-ances may occur in the preparatory phase, during the execution of the construction project and also during its operational use. The arti-cle presents the concept of applying the methodology based, among others, on Learning Bayesian Networks, Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machine,...
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Waste management in the mining industry of metals ores, coal, oil and natural gas - A review
PublicationWaste generated due to mining activity poses a serious issue due to the large amounts generated, even up to 65 billion tons per year, and is often associated with the risk posed by its storage and environmental management. This work aims to review waste management in the mining industry of metals ores, coal, oil and natural gas. It includes an analysis and discussion on the possibilities for reuse of certain types of wastes generated...
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Human Factors and Functional Safety Analysis in Designing the Control Rooms of Industrial Hazardous Plants
PublicationIn this work some aspects of human factors and functional safety analysis in designing the control rooms of industrial hazardous plants are presented. The “defence in depth” (D-in-D) concept is outlined. Some designing issues of the alarm system (AS) with regard to human factors to be supported using the human reliability analysis (HRA) are discussed. The AS and decision support system (DSS), when properly designed, would contribute...
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A ship domain-based model of collision risk for near-miss detection and Collision Alert Systems
PublicationThe paper presents a new model of ship collision risk, which utilises a ship domain concept and the related domain-based collision risk parameters. An encounter is here described by five variables representing: degree of domain violation (DDV), relative speed of the two vessels, combination of the vessels’ courses, arena violations and encounter complexity. As for the first three variables, their values can be directly computed...
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Functional safety and cyber security analysis for life cycle management of industrial control systems in hazardous plants and oil port critical infrastructure including insurance
PublicationThis report addresses selected methodological aspects of proactive reliability, functional safety and cyber security management in life cycle of industrial automation and control systems (IACS) in hazardous plants and oil port critical installations based on the analysis of relevant hazards / threats and evaluation of related risks. In addition the insurance company point of view has been also considered, because nowadays the insurer,...
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Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk
PublicationThe process of decision-making in public procurement of construction projects during the preparation and implementation phases ought to be supported by risk identification, assessment, and management. In risk assessment one has to take into account factors that lead to risk events (background info), as well as the information about the risk symptoms (monitoring info). Typically once the risks have been assessed a decision-maker...
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Environmental risk- based ranking of solvents by the combination of multimedia model and multi-criteria decision analysis
PublicationA novel procedure for assessing the environmental risk related to solvents emissions has been developed. The assessment of risk is based on hazard and exposure detailed investigations. The potential exposure related to different environmental phases is calculated with basic multimedia model, that gives the percentage distribution of solvent in environmental compartments as a result. Specific hazards– toxicological, environmental...
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A framework for risk matrix design: A case of MASS navigation risk
PublicationRisk matrix, a tool for visualizing risk assessment results, is essential to facilitate the risk communication and risk management in risk-based decision-making processes related to new and unexplored socio-technical systems. The use of an appropriate risk matrix is discussed in the literature, but it is overlooked for emerging technologies such as Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). In this study, a comprehensive framework...
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Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis of Cinan Feizuo Flood Protection Area, Huaihe River Basin
PublicationThis study evaluated multiple aspects of flood risks and effects on the Cinan Feizuo flood protection area in the Huaihe River basin. Flooding remains a leading problem for infrastructure, especially in urban, residential areas of the region. Effective flood modeling for urbanized floodplains is challenging, but MIKE (ID-2D) is paramount for analyzing and quantifying the risk in the vulnerable region. The Saint-Venant equation...
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Navigational decision support system during approach manoeuvre in emergency STS transfer operation
PublicationThe paper is concerned with the problem of safe trajectory planning for approaching during emergency STS (Ship to Ship) transfer operation with oil spill. The safe trajectory means that the way points does not cross in the area of the environment with the static and dynamic obstacles and at the same time satisfies ship's stopping and speed deceleration performance. The evolutionary path planning algorithm is used to determine trajectory...
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Selecting cost-effective risk control option for advanced maritime operations; Integration of STPA-BN-Influence diagram
PublicationAdvanced maritime operations, such as remote pilotage, are vulnerable to new emergent risks due to increased system complexity and a multitude of interactions. Thus, maritime researchers this decade have combined Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) and Bayesian Network (BN) to effectively manage these risks. Although these methods are effective in identifying hazards and analyzing risk levels, none of the STPA-BN studies...
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Framework for RIDM within functional safety management process
PublicationThe functional safety management in life cycle is a complex process starting with identifying hazards and defining safety-related functions (SRFs) with risk assessment oriented at determining the safety integrity level. Another element of such life cycle is a verification of required SIL for designed safety-related system which implements safety function. Due to complexity of the problem, to overcome difficulties in safety-related...
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Methodological issues of functional safety and reliability assessment of critical systems in industrial hazardous plants
PublicationThe aim of this article is to identify and discuss some methodological issues that are of interest among functional safety specialists and experts after publication of the second edition of international standards IEC 61508 and IEC 61511, including the design and implementing the safety-related functions of higher safety integrity levels and protection layers. The basic role of safety-related systems is to reduce effectively and...
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Risk Analysis by a Probabilistic Model of the Measurement Process
PublicationThe aim of the article is presentation of the testing methodology and results of examination the probabilistic model of the measurement process. The case study concerns the determination of the risk of an incorrect decision in the assessment of the compliance of products by measurement. Measurand is characterized by the generalized Rayleigh distribution. The model of the meas-urement process was tested in parallel mode by six risk...
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Functional safety and reliability analysis methodoloogy for hazardous industrial plants
PublicationThis monograph is devoted to current problems and methods of the functional safety and reliability analyses of the programmable control and protection systems for industrial hazardous plants. The results of these analyses are useful in the process of safety management in life cycle, for effective reducing relevant risks at the design stage, and then controlling these risks during the operation of given installation. The methodology...
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The Selection of Anchoring System for Floating Houses by Means of AHP Method
PublicationThis paper indicates and analyses the use of anchoring systems, such as mooring piles, booms, mooring cables, and deadweight anchors with additional elastic connectors, which are the most frequently applied by the producers of floating houses. The selection of the most advantageous anchoring system is complicated and requires the application of quantitative and qualitative data and methods. This publication presents the results...
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MODELOWANIE WYBRANYCH MIAR BEZPIECZEŃSTWA RUCHU NA DŁUGICH ODCINKACH DRÓG
PublicationKażdego roku w wypadkach drogowych na świecie życie traci prawie 1,3 mln osób, co oznacza prawie niemal 3 tys. ofiar dziennie,. Tyle samo zabitych w ruchu drogowym odnotowujemy rocznie w Polsce. Ekonomiczne straty w wyniku tych wypadków wynoszą ok. 2% światowego PKB. W roku 2010 Organizacja Narodów Zjednoczonych (ONZ) przyjęła rezolucję pt. „Dekada działań na rzecz bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowego na lata 2011 – 2020” rozpoczynającą...
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Hazard Control in Industrial Environments: A Knowledge-Vision-Based Approach
PublicationThis paper proposes the integration of image processing techniques (such as image segmentation, feature extraction and selection) and a knowledge representation approach in a framework for the development of an automatic system able to identify, in real time, unsafe activities in industrial environments. In this framework, the visual information (feature extraction) acquired from video-camera images and other context based gathered...
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Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises
PublicationThis manuscript is devoted to the issue of forecasting corporate bankruptcy. Determining a firm’s bankruptcy risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The aim of the paper is to develop and to evaluate dynamic bankruptcy prediction models for European enterprises. To conduct this objective, four forecasting models are developed with the use of four different methods—fuzzy sets, recurrent and...
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How to apply the probabilistic model of measurement processes successfully
PublicationApplicational aspects of probabilistic model of measurement processes, proposed by G.B. Rossi, are considered. The main idea of the model - using of Bayes-Laplace postulate for solution of inverse probability problem, is substituted by Fisher's concept of the likelihood function, expressed in the data translated format. This approach gives a clear-sighted solution of inverse probability. Some recommendations for application of...
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Evidence-Based Risk Management for Civil Engineering Projects Using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)
PublicationThe authors are seeking new methods for improving the efficiency of the investments associated with the maintenance and operation of existing civil engineering structures. It is demonstrated how the knowledge about the elements of construction and operation phases and their relationships, combined with monitoring data can be used for more effective management of the risks associated with civil engineering projects. The methodology...
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Current risk analysis and management issues in technical systems.
PublicationDealing with the reliability and safety of industrial hazardous plants requires taking into account relevant interdisciplinary scientific knowledge and some existing approaches based on so-called good engineering practice, also those included in the international standards and guidelines. In this article an approach is proposed how to integrate the functional safety concept with information security aspects in the design and management...
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Corporate social responsibility and forward default risk mediated by financial performance and goodwill
PublicationIn today’s business environment, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become an increasingly significant factor for firms. This study is driven by the motivation to add to the current literature by investigating the mediating elements that explain the relationship between CSR and forward default risk. In this paper, we attempt to identify the important mediators and give a more comprehensive explanation of this connection...
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Potrzeba wykorzystania narzędzi Enterprise Project Management w przedsiębiorstwie między narodowym - studium przypadku
PublicationW artykule przedstawiono wyniki badań dotyczące projektu wdrożenia narzędzia informatycznego, które usprawni proces planowanie pracy i zarządzanie zasobami w filiach zagranicznych, mającego znamiona systemu Enterprise Project Management - do wspomagania zarządzania projektami. Omówiono zalety oraz wady tego typu rozwiązań w stosunku do tradycyjnych sposobów zarządzania. Wskazano szanse i zagrożenia dla rozwoju przedsiębiorstw wynikające...
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Comparison of Classification Methods for EEG Signals of Real and Imaginary Motion
PublicationThe classification of EEG signals provides an important element of brain-computer interface (BCI) applications, underlying an efficient interaction between a human and a computer application. The BCI applications can be especially useful for people with disabilities. Numerous experiments aim at recognition of motion intent of left or right hand being useful for locked-in-state or paralyzed subjects in controlling computer applications....
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Interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management based on multi-agent system
PublicationThis article presents conception of interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management. The emphasis of the project is on real-time analysis and multi-media information, and the support of distributed and mobile clients through the Internet. The approach integrates meteorological data and forecasts, air quality and emission monitoring, dynamic 3D simulation modelling and forecasting,...
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Experience Based Clinical Decision Support Systems: An Overview and Case Studies
PublicationThis chapter briefly overviews the evolution of the application of the Decisional DNA and the Set of Experience Knowledge Structure (SOEKS) in the medical domain and in particular in the specific case of the experience-based decision support systems. Decisional DNA, as a knowledge representation structure, offers great possibilities on gathering explicit knowledge of formal decision events as well as a tool for decision making...
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Trajectory planning for Service Ship during emergency STS transfer operation
PublicationIn this paper trajectory for approaching during emergency STS transfer operation with oil spill is considered as a sequence of navigation manoeuvres in specific navigational environment. The designed way points - ship positions and speed are determined as reference values to support navigator in decision making during steering and to mitigate the risk of collision which mostly results from exceeding the speed limit of approaching....
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Between therapy effect and false-positive result in animal experimentation
PublicationDespite the animal models’ complexity, researchers tend to reduce the number of animals in experiments for expenses and ethical concerns. This tendency makes the risk of false-positive results, as statistical significance, the primary criterion to validate findings, often fails if testing small samples. This study aims to highlight such risks using an example from experimental regenerative therapy and propose a machine-learning...
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Risk assessment for tram traffic on tramway bridges
PublicationMiejski transport szynowy wielu miastach stanowi istotny element systemu transportowego i jest przestrzennie rozwijającym się systemem zapewniającym mieszkańcom codzienną obsługę transportową. Bezpieczeństwo pasażerów transportu szynowego i użytkowników dróg jest jednym z najważniejszych czynników, który należy uwzględnić w trakcie projektowania infrastruktury oraz w ocenie operacyjnej systemu miejskiego transportu tramwajowego....
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Możliwość oszacowania niezawodności silników o zapłonie samoczynnym z zastosowaniem teorii procesów semi-Markowa oraz podejmowania decyzji eksploatacyjnych z uwzględnieniem wiarygodności diagnozy o stanie technicznym tego rodzaju silników spalinowych = Possibility of estimating the reliability of diesel engines by applying the theory of semi-Markov processes and making operational decisions by considering reliability of diagnosis on technical state of this sort of combustion engines/
PublicationThe paper presents semi-Markov models of technical state transitions for diesel engines, useful for determining reliability of the engines. A possibility of application of a three-state model with a simplified matrix function, or even a two-state model, to determine reliability of the engines, has been described herein on examples of known from literature semi-Markov models, for the case when appropriate diagnosing systems (SDG)...
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Impact of digital technologies on reliability of risk forecasting models - case study of enterprises in three global financial market regions
PublicationThis chapter focuses on the evaluation of impact of ICT on reliability of financial risk forecasting models. Presented study shows how the development of ICT can improve the effectiveness of such models. Determining a firm’s financial risk is one of the most interesting topics for investors and decision-makers. The multifaceted goal of the presented research is to separately estimate five traditional statistical and five soft computing...
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Zarządzanie programami badawczymi z uwzględnieniem filozofii nauki
PublicationZarządzanie projektami i programami badawczymi powinno być realizowane z zastosowaniem specyficznych metod zarządzania ze względu na specyfikę badań naukowych. W tym rozdziale zaprezentowano wyniki analiz mających na celu lepsze zrozumienie roli zarządzania programem badawczym z następujących perspektyw: analizy rzeczywistości projektów badawczych, zarządzania projektem i programem oraz filozofii nauki. Praktycznym zastosowaniem...
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Analiza Niezawodności Człowieka w Ramach Funkcji związanych z Bezpieczeństwem w Przykładowej Instalacji
PublicationW analizie bezpieczeństwa funkcjonalnego systemów sterowania i zabezpieczeń należy określić wymagany poziom nienaruszalności bezpieczeństwa SIL w procesie analizy ryzyka, a następnie zweryfikować ten poziom stosując odpowiednie metody modelowania probabilistycznego. Działania człowieka mogą mieć istotny wpływ na realizację funkcji bezpieczeństwa. Wpływ ten ocenia się na podstawie wyników analizy niezawodności człowieka HRA. W niniejszym...
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Estimating inequality aversion from subjective assessments of the just noticeable differences in welfare
PublicationResearch background: In Economics, the concept of inequality aversion corresponds with the concept of risk aversion in the literature on making decision under uncertainty. The risk aversion is estimated on the basis of subjective reactions of people to various lottery prospects. In Economics, however, an efficient method of estimating inequality aversion has not been developed yet. Purpose of the article: The main aim of this paper...
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Forewarned Is Forearmed: Machine Learning Algorithms for the Prediction of Catheter-Induced Coronary and Aortic Injuries
PublicationCatheter-induced dissections (CID) of coronary arteries and/or the aorta are among the most dangerous complications of percutaneous coronary procedures, yet the data on their risk factors are anecdotal. Logistic regression and five more advanced machine learning techniques were applied to determine the most significant predictors of dissection. Model performance comparison and feature importance ranking were evaluated. We identified...
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Engineering and Management of Space Systems (EMSS) - an international joint Master's double-degree program
PublicationDynamic development of the space sector of European, and especially of Polish and German economies results in a necessity for suitable Higher Education Institution graduates. The increasing digitization, distribution and networking of technical systems leads to the necessity of a degree programme teaching “the systems view” and “interdisciplinarity” methods and skills. Furthermore, it is necessary to consider the entire life cycle...
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Mathematical Modeling of Ice Dynamics as a Decision Support Tool in River Engineering
PublicationThe prediction of winter flooding is a complicated task since it is affected by many meteorological and hydraulic factors. Typically, information on river ice conditions is based on historical observations, which are usually incomplete. Recently, data have been supplemented by information extracted from satellite images. All the above mentioned factors provide a good background of the characteristics of ice processes, but are not...
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Conception of interactive information and decision support system - model and evaluation
PublicationThis article presents conception of interactive information and decision support system for urban and industrial air quality management. The emphasis of the project is on real-time analysis and multi-media information, and support of distributed and mobile clients through the Internet.
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Knowledge management - decision support in a workflow system
PublicationPrzedstawiono nowatorski model zarzadzania wiedza w procesach decyzyjnych w systemie opartym na przeplywie ''workflow''.
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Analysis of Agricultural and Engineering Systems using Simulation Decomposition
PublicationThis paper focuses on the analysis of agricultural and engineering processes using simulation decomposition (SD). SD is a technique that utilizes Monte Carlo simulations and distribution decomposition to visually evaluate the source and the outcome of different portions of data. Here, SD is applied to three distinct processes: a model problem, a nondestructive evaluation testing system, and an agricultural food-water energy system....
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Bridging challenges of clinical decision support systems with a semantic approach. A case study on breast cancer
PublicationThe integration of Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) in nowadays clinical environments has not been fully achieved yet. Although numerous approaches and technologies have been proposed since 1960, there are still open gaps that need to be bridged. In this work we present advances from the established state of the art, overcoming some of the most notorious reported difficulties in: (i) automating CDSS, (ii) clinical workflow...
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Ontology as a Tool for the IT Management Standards Support
PublicationIn this paper the authors discuss the initial idea of using ontologies to model requirements of the standards that support IT management processes. The Open Group Architecture Framework (TOGAF) is set as an example. A need for transition from the generic model do the organization-specific one is indicated. The described example serves as a ground for considering the usefulness of such modeling approach in the wider spectrum of...
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Knowledge Risk Management in Organizations
PublicationPurpose – Shorter product life cycles, greater demands from consumers for sustainable and eco-friendly products and services, and thus the need for constant market observation make today’s business environment a rather complex one, the one that is characterized not only by a number of opportunities but also by a number of risks. These risks are increasingly related to knowledge which, in turn, underlines the need for an updated...
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Urban Mentoring as a new polish management technique in participatory planning
PublicationA decade of experience in implementation of numerous urban modernization projects in Poland resulted in a lively debate on socialization of the planning process, in which the matter of the public space quality has become the center of gravity. In those years, transformation from the classic administrative model of „bureaucracy planning” to the model of „management planning” has not been complete. The socialist primacy of the public...
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Pedestrian safety management using the risk-based approach
PublicationThe paper presents a concept of a multi-level pedestrian safety management system. Three management levels are distinguished: strategic, tactical and operational. The basis for the proposed approach to pedestrian safety management is a risk-based method. In the approach the elements of behavioural and systemic theories were used, allowing for the development of a formalised and repeatable procedure integrating the phases of risk...
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Verification of agent system for it project management support
PublicationThis article is a continuation of article series telling about research about possibility of using agent system to information technology evaluation. Following article presents full conception of exploiting agent system and shows how it can support some managers works, especially in taking correct management method and information tool for project management. In this article the agent system that based on knowledge and can process...
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The Conception of Decision-Making Support System for ComplexEnergetic System on Example of Ship Propulsion System
PublicationIn paper, the conception of decision-making support system for complex energetic system on example of ship propulsion system has been presented. Diversity of conditions, information overload and very often contradiction of decision-making criteria and time constraints result in difficulties in making right (rational) decision without using more or less expanded information processing systems (eg. database systems, expert systems,...